Fundamental Market Analysis for February 28, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD remains under selling pressure near 1.0390 during Asian trading on Friday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid risk-off sentiment. The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index will take centre stage later on Friday.
Late Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada and Mexico will take effect on March 4, rather than April 2 as he had anticipated the day before. Trump also said goods from China would be subject to an additional 10 per cent duties. He also promised this week to impose 25 per cent tariffs on shipments from the European Union. Tariff uncertainty from Trump is likely to weigh on the common currency in the near term.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday she expects the US central bank's interest rate policy to be put on hold for now amid a search for evidence that inflationary pressures are easing and returning to the 2 per cent target. Meanwhile, Atlanta FRB President Raphael Bostic said late Wednesday that the Fed should keep interest rates on hold, which continues to put downward pressure on inflation. The Fed's cautious stance could boost the US Dollar and serve as a headwind for EUR/USD.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0380, SL 1.0430, TP 1.0300
Analysis
XAUUSD strong down again 1. Potential for Reversal
The analysis assumes a clear bearish move toward the support area. However, price action may react differently to the resistance zone. If buyers step in, we could see a reversal rather than a continuation downward.
A false breakdown could trap sellers and push the price back up to retest resistance instead.
2. Market Structure Weakness
The chart suggests a Break of Structure (BOS) confirming a downtrend, but the momentum could weaken if volume decreases.
The weak low labeled on the chart could act as a temporary liquidity grab rather than a strong bearish continuation.
3. Economic and Fundamental Factors
Gold is sensitive to economic news, interest rate decisions, and geopolitical events. If a news event favors gold, this technical setup could be invalidated.
USD strength or weakness could shift demand for gold, affecting this price projection.
4. Liquidity Considerations
Support and resistance zones are often areas where liquidity is hunted. Market makers may manipulate price to take out stops before the actual move occurs
Buy EUR/CAD High Impact NewsThe EUR/CAD pair on the M15 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 1.5086
2nd Resistance – 1.5124
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XAG/USD Bearish Flag (27.2.25)The XAG/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 31.06
2nd Support – 30.66
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NZD/CAD -H1 Chart - Wedge Breakout (27.02.2025)The NZD/CAD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 0.8101
2nd Support – 0.8068
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#SHELLUSDT – Bullish Scenario, Expecting a Breakout📈 LONG BYBIT:SHELLUSDT.P from $0.7000
🛡 Stop Loss: $0.6671
⏱ 1H Timeframe
⚡ Trade Plan:
✅ The BYBIT:SHELLUSDT.P price is showing strong momentum after breaking out of a consolidation zone.
✅ The asset has broken above $0.6957 and is holding above this level, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend.
✅ Increasing volume confirms buyer activity.
🎯 TP Targets:
💎 TP 1: $0.7350
🔥 TP 2: $0.7700
📢 Holding above $0.7000 would confirm further bullish movement.
📢 POC at $0.4671 is far below the current price, indicating a trend shift.
📢 Increasing volume supports the bullish case.
📢 Securing partial profits at TP1 ($0.7350) is a smart risk-management strategy.
🚀 BYBIT:SHELLUSDT.P remains in an uptrend – monitoring for continuation and securing profits at TP levels!
US PCE could be the catalyst for USDJPY to make a stronger moveMARKETSCOM:USDJPY is currently flirting with the area around the 149.00 hurdle. In order to shift our attention to some lower areas, a drop below the lowest point of December 2024 is needed. But what about the US PCEs? Let's dig in...
FX_IDC:USDJPY
What are your thoughts on this?
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
Key Liquidity Zone in Play – Sniper Bounce to ATH? (XAU/USD)Alright GTK Family! 🏆
Here are our key zones for today:
🔹 4H Bullish OB Holding… For Now – Price is currently respecting our 4H Bullish OB, but the chances of breaking through aren’t slim considering the extreme bearish momentum from market open. 📉
🔹 Liquidity Grab & Bounce? – If price breaks below the OB, I expect a sweep of liquidity at the Feb 10 Weekly Low, followed by a strong push back up towards ATH. 💧🚀
🔹 Bearish Scenario? – If price rejects upwards, the next key resistance is the 4H Bearish FVG, which could be a selling opportunity, but it would be a riskier trade. ⚠️
📍 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ 4H Bullish OB – Holding as support (for now) 🟢
✅ Feb 10 Weekly Low – Major liquidity zone 💧
❌ 4H Bearish FVG – Potential sell area, but risky 🔴
🎯 ATH Target – If bulls regain control 🚀
EUR/USD - H1- Chart - Ascending Triangle (27.02.2025) The EUR/USD Pair on the H1 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0433
2nd Support – 1.0405
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AUDUSD STRONG FALL SOON OPPORTUNITY 1. Breakout Above Resistance
The analysis assumes a rejection at the resistance zone, leading to a downtrend. However, if bullish momentum builds, the price could break above resistance, invalidating the sell-off expectation.
2. Support Might Not Hold
The marked support zone might be weak if there is strong bearish sentiment, leading to a potential breakdown rather than a reversal from that level.
3. Range-bound Market
Instead of a clear breakout or breakdown, AUD/USD might stay within a sideways range, consolidating between support and resistance rather than making a decisive move.
4. Fundamental Factors
Economic data releases, central bank policies, or geopolitical events could override this technical setup, causing unexpected price movements in either direction.
Btcusd strong analysis opportunity 1. Breakout Possibility Above Resistance
The analysis assumes a rejection at the resistance zone, but Bitcoin could break above it instead, leading to a bullish continuation rather than a reversal.
2. Stronger Support Holding
The projected drop might not occur if the support zone proves stronger than expected, leading to a bounce instead of a decline.
3. Market Volatility & Fundamentals
Bitcoin often moves based on macroeconomic factors, news, or liquidity shifts. A sudden surge in demand could invalidate this technical setup.
4. Inverse Head & Shoulders Formation
If price action forms a higher low, it could indicate accumulation rather than a sell-off, meaning a push toward new highs instead of a decline
SLIVER STRONG DOWN OPPORTUNITY 1. Resistance Breakout Possibility
The analysis assumes a rejection at resistance, leading to a drop. However, if bullish momentum increases and breaks the resistance, it could trigger a strong rally instead of a decline.
2. Support Weakness
The support area identified might not hold if there's strong bearish pressure. If the price falls sharply, it could break support instead of bouncing, leading to further downside.
3. False Breakout Risk
The projected downtrend might be a false move, where price briefly dips but then rebounds, trapping sellers before reversing to the upside.
4. Market News & Fundamentals
XAUUSD strong bullish analysis opportunity 1. Support May Not Hold – The chart assumes price will respect the support zone and reverse upwards. However, given the strong bearish momentum leading into this level, a breakdown is possible. A break below the support could trigger further declines instead of the expected rebound.
2. Resistance Might Not Be Reached – The analysis predicts a move towards the resistance zone around 2,940, but if selling pressure remains strong, price could stall at the intermediate resistance (around 2,910-2,920) before reversing downward again.
3. Trend Continuation Instead of Reversal – The market is currently in a downtrend, making a continuation of lower lows and lower highs more probable than an immediate bullish reversal. Any short-term bounce might be a liquidity grab before further decline
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 27, 2025 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) is declining against its US counterpart during the Asian session on Thursday, although it remains near the highest level since October 2024 reached earlier this week. Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda last week about a potential increase in regular bond purchases led to a further decline in Japanese government bond (JGB) yields. In addition, concerns over US President Donald Trump's tariff plans and a positive tone on risks proved to be key factors undermining the yen exchange rate.
However, a significant Yen depreciation still seems unlikely amid growing market confidence that the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates this year amid rising inflation in Japan.
Nevertheless, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell has made it clear that policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates. What's more, previously released U.S. consumer inflation data suggests that the Fed doesn't have much room to cut rates this year. This, in turn, pushed US Treasury bond yields up, widening the yield differential between the US and Japan and limiting the upside potential for the low-yielding Yen.
Trading recommendation: BUY 149.200, SL 148.800, TP 150.000
Bitcoin back to $75,000 from here?Seems like that guy Michael Saylor, the CEO of Strategy just wasted hundreds of millions of dollars by buying $1.99 billion worth of Bitcoin at an average price of $97,514 per bitcoin, right before the drop down below $80k to probable $75k area.
Rushing to buy at highs like that instead of being smart about it and loading much more at the dips is hard to understand.
Will DAX go for another all-time high?It seems that geopolitics are the key driving force of the MARKETSCOM:DE30 bulls. The current news on a possible end of the war in Ukraine is helping boost trader morale. Let's dig in!
XETR:DAX
What are your thoughts on this?
74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
FFM Targeting 1.5??Hi dear trading lovers and FFM buyers...
PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS IS ONLY AN ANALYSIS AND COULD BE WRONG...
Chart and lines are explaining my idea...
SEEMS FFM is in a uptrend targeting 1.5 and finally 1.7...
Also note that:
"Macquarie has initiated coverage of FireFly Metals with an Outperform rating and set a price target of A$1.50"
XAUUSD strong down opportunity to big falling 1. Resistance Zone Validity – The marked resistance zone appears strong due to multiple rejections. However, if the price breaks above this zone with strong bullish momentum, a further rally may occur instead of the expected drop.
2. Support Strength – The lower support around 2,890 is a key level. However, if buyers aggressively step in before reaching it, the price could consolidate or reverse prematurely, invalidating the expected bearish move.
3. Market Context – Fundamental factors like economic data, interest rates, or geopolitical events could impact gold prices, overriding this technical setup.
4. False Breakdown Risk – Price could briefly dip below intermediate support and then reverse sharply, trapping sellers in a bear trap
Us30 strong bullish opportunity 1. Overly Bullish Bias
The analysis assumes a clean breakout above support and a strong push to resistance.
However, Dow Jones is known for fakeouts—meaning:
A false breakout above resistance could trap buyers before reversing.
A liquidity grab below support might happen before the real move.
2. Weak Confirmation for the Uptrend
There's no clear volume confirmation—breakouts need high volume to be valid.
Price is consolidating near key Fibonacci levels, meaning a reversal is just as likely as a breakout.
A better approach would be waiting for a strong retest and breakout confirmation.
3. Ignoring Key Fibonacci Levels
The chart includes multiple Fibonacci levels but does not integrate them into the projection.
The 2.618 (43,535) and 3.618 (43,446) levels suggest possible retracements before an upward move
Instead of an instant push-up, a dip to test Fibonacci support is likely.
4. Resistance Might Hold Strong
The resistance area is broad, meaning:
A rejection at resistance could lead to a short-term bearish pullback.
The market might range between the two levels instead of moving in a straight line.
Alternative Scenario:
Instead of assuming an instant bullish move:
1. Bearish Trap First: A false breakout above resistance to trap buyers, followed by a drop.
2. Deeper Retest: Price could revisit support or a Fibonacci level before a true breakout.
3. Wait for Volume Confirmation: If resistance breaks with strong momentum, then an entry makes sense
XAU/USD Pullback or Reversal? Key Support Zone in Focus!📊 Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart Analysis – Feb 16, 2025
🔹 Current Price: $2,882.48 (-1.57%)
🔻 Recent High: $2,939.98
🔻 Recent Low: $2,877.03
🔴 200 EMA: $2,562.04 (Long-term support)
🧐 Key Observations:
✅ Strong Uptrend: Price has been in a bullish trend since late 2024.
✅ Support Zone: A key demand zone around $2,850 - $2,870 (highlighted in blue).
✅ Trendline Retest: The price is testing the trendline, which could act as support.
📉 Possible Scenarios:
🔹 Bullish Case: If buyers step in at the support zone, we could see a bounce towards $2,950 - $3,000 🚀.
🔹 Bearish Case: A breakdown below $2,850 may trigger a deeper pullback to $2,800 - $2,750 ❄️.
🎯 Trading Plan:
📌 Buy Setup: Look for bullish confirmation (e.g., reversal candles) in the support zone before entering long.
📌 Sell Setup: If the price closes below $2,850, short positions could be considered with targets near $2,750.
🔥 Final Thoughts: Despite today’s pullback, gold remains bullish unless key support levels break. Watching price action around the blue zone will be crucial!
📢 Traders, what’s your take? Are we bouncing or breaking down? Let’s discuss! 👇💬 #Gold #XAUUSD
XAU/USD (Gold) Trendline Breakout (21.02.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Trendline Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 2904
2nd Support – 2880
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Bitcoin's Unbalanced move with the US electionsThe overall trend is still bullish, but the market needs to rebalance at $86,686 before it can push to new highs. Right now, the price action is not respecting bullish structure and is moving sideways in a consolidation phase.
The market does not move in a straight line. Every strong move needs to be balanced before continuing. The price left behind inefficiencies during the last expansion, and the market seeks to correct these before the next leg up. Liquidity is key. Right now, there is an imbalance that needs to be filled, and resting liquidity below must be taken before the market can resume its upward trend.
Smart money is not buying at current levels. They need better pricing and the market naturally moves to levels where institutional interest is highest. That level is around eighty-six thousand six hundred eighty-six, where a large amount of liquidity is positioned. The market is likely to dip into this level, take out weak-handed buyers, and trap sellers before pushing higher.
A ten percent drop from here would bring the price into that area, where real accumulation can take place. Until then, any short-term rallies are likely to be liquidity grabs rather than true continuation.
Please do not forget that this is a daily chart and we can see more liquidity grabs before reaching the target. This is an idea and nothing in the future is certain. With unexpected news we can see unexpected moves.
COINBASE:BTCUSD INDEX:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSD KRAKEN:BTCUSD BINANCE:BTCUSDT BINANCE:BTCUSDT28H2025