GBPJPY SELL | Idea Trading AnalysisGBPJPY is moving in an ascending channel. The price has an opportunity to test the resistance zones. If the price cannot break through the resistance level, it is expected that there is a chance that the price will fall..
We expect a bearish move from the confluence zone.
Hello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPJPY
I still did my best and this is the most likely count for me at the moment.
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Analysischart
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 5/8/2024 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2024
- PR High: 18204.25
- PR Low: 18180.75
- NZ Spread: 52.5
Key economic calendar events
10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories
13:00 | 10-Year Note Auction
Prev session closed virtually flat
- Holding inside prev session range
- Near Monday's high
- Potential daily pivot off 18300 zone
- Another low vol session open
Evening Stats (As of 12:25 AM)
- Weekend Gap: N/A
- Gap 10/30 +0.47% (open < 14272)
- Session Open ATR: 285.39
- Volume: 15K
- Open Int: 232K
- Trend Grade: Bull
- From BA ATH: -2.7% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 18675
- Mid: 18106
- Short: 16963
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
BA: Back Adjusted
BuZ/BeZ: Bull Zone / Bear Zone
NZ: Neutral Zone
GBPCAD → Trade Analysis | SELL SetupHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
I think we can soon see more fall from this range! GOOD LUCK! Great SELL opportunity GBPCAD
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GBP/USD Extends Recovery Amid Dollar WeaknessThe GBP/USD is extending its recovery rally towards the 1.2500 level in Thursday morning's European session. This currency pair continues to be supported by the prolonged weakness of the US Dollar along with low-interest rates of US treasury bonds.
On the 4-hour chart, we observe that the GBP/USD has crossed above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling positive signs of price recovery. If prices continue to rise and surpass both the SMA 50 and SMA 100, we can expect a stronger upward movement.
NZDCAD → Trade Analysis | BUY SetupHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY . GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity NZDCAD
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Technical Analysis: Signs of Price Adjustment in EUR/USDIn Thursday's trading session, the EUR/USD pair lost momentum, dropping to around 1.0745 due to the CPI inflation data boosting the value of the US Dollar (USD) and exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. The decision on interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain stability at record high levels.
From a technical standpoint, on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD continues to show downward prospects as it remains below the Simple Moving Averages (SMA), a clear sign of the strength of the downward trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also decreased to near oversold levels around 32, indicating the potential for a price correction to the upside.
AUDUSD BUY | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
The completed correction, recovery and formation of a pre-breakout set-up hint at the continuation of growth. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity AUDUSD
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GBP/USD's Strong Uptrend in the Upcoming PeriodGBP/USD is trading back and forth around the 1.2660 level and remains within the trading range of Monday. After breaking through this range, the price continues to rise strongly with no signs of a decline in the .
Looking at the chart, we can see that both technical indicators, SMA and RSI, are supporting the upward trend for this currency pair. Especially the SMA 20, it is gradually trending upwards and is far away from other SMAs such as SMA 50 and SMA 100. This indicates that the price is in a prolonged uptrend.
On the other hand, looking at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator, we notice that it is in the overbought zone. This predicts that there may be a price correction, causing the price to retreat in the short term. However, this does not guarantee the end of the upward trend, but rather a minor adjustment before the price continues to rise strongly.
Analyzing Gold's Trend In the Upcoming PeriodGold prices are showing signs of reversal after hitting an all-time high above the $2,350 barrier during European trading on Monday. The decrease in bets on a Fed interest rate cut in June and reduced geopolitical tensions have limited gold's upward momentum, despite increased central bank gold purchases.
Looking at the H4 chart,, if gold undergoes a correction back to around $2,331 before continuing its upward trend, it could indicate that the strong uptrend will continue.
If gold buyers successfully challenge the correction pressure, there's a possibility of a new recovery towards the psychological level of $2,370, if accepted above the $2,350.
GBPUSD (4h) analysis (read caption)GBPUSD pair within a parallel channel. With GBPUSD currently at 1.2722, anticipate a pullback to either 1.27380 or 1.27440, which are resistance zones. If the market fails to break through these zones, expect a downturn towards the demand zone at 1.26560. I suggest setting a stop loss at 1.27700 to manage risk. Remember to monitor the market closely for any changes in price action.
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Eurusd 4h analysis (read caption)- EUR/USD is currently at a resistance zone.
- i anticipate a market downturn towards my demand zone.
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- Resistance levels are at 1.08939 and 1.09082.
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- my demand zone level from 1.08628 to 1.08503.
- i've set a stop loss at 1.09238.
My strategy seems to involve selling or shorting EUR/USD as it approaches the resistance zone, with the expectation of a downward movement towards the demand zone. Remember to monitor the market closely and adjust your positions accordingly based on new developments.
USDJPY BUY | Day Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
The completed correction, recovery and formation ascending triangle, set-up hint at the continuation of growth. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity USDJPY
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XAUUSD 100% CONFIRM ANALYSISDiscover an enticing Selling opportunity in GOLD as it undergoes a critical retest of a key resistance area. With market analysis, technical indicators, and price action as your allies, evaluate the potential downside move. Stay vigilant and informed to capitalize on this precious metal's market dynamics.
The Cores of Price Analysis: Trend Following vs. Mean ReversionIn the world of financial markets, predicting future price movements is akin to unlocking a treasure chest. Two of the most prominent methodologies used by traders and analysts to decipher market movements are Trend Following and Mean Reversion. Each approach offers a unique perspective on how markets behave and provides strategies for capitalizing on this behavior. In this article, we'll dive into the core concepts of these methodologies, explore how they can be implemented, and touch on basic processing techniques like smoothing and normalization, which enhance their effectiveness.
Trend Following: Surfing the Market Waves
Trend Following is based on the premise that markets move in trends over time, and these trends can be identified and followed to generate profits. The essence of trend following is to "buy high and sell higher" in a bull market, and "sell low and buy back lower" in a bear market. This method relies on the assumption that prices that have been moving in a particular direction will continue to move in that direction until the trend reverses.
How to Implement Trend Following
1. Identifying the Trend: The first step is to identify the market trend. This can be done using technical indicators such as moving averages, MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence), or ADX (Average Directional Index). For example, a simple strategy might involve buying when the price is above its 200-day moving average and selling when it's below.
2. Entry and Exit Points: Once a trend is identified, the next step is to determine entry and exit points. This could involve using breakout strategies, where trades are entered when the price breaks out of a consolidation pattern, or using momentum indicators to confirm trend strength before entry.
3. Risk Management: Implementing stop-loss orders and adjusting position sizes based on the volatility of the asset are crucial to managing risk in trend-following strategies.
Basic Processing Techniques
- Smoothing: To reduce market noise and make the trend more discernible, smoothing techniques such as moving averages or exponential smoothing can be applied to price data.
- Normalization: This involves scaling price data to a specific range, often to compare the relative performance of different assets or to make the data more compatible with certain technical indicators.
Mean Reversion: Betting on the Elastic Band
Contrary to trend following, Mean Reversion is based on the idea that prices tend to revert to their mean (average) over time. This methodology operates on the principle that extreme movements in price – either up or down – are likely to revert to the mean, offering profit opportunities.
How to Implement Mean Reversion
1. Identifying the Mean: The first step is to determine the mean to which the price is expected to revert. This could be a historical average price, a moving average, or another indicator that serves as a central tendency measure.
2. Identifying Extremes: The next step is to identify when prices have moved significantly away from the mean. This can be done using indicators like Bollinger Bands, RSI (Relative Strength Index), or standard deviation measures.
3. Entry and Exit Points: Trades are typically entered when prices are considered to be at an extreme deviation from the mean, betting on the reversal towards the mean. Exit points are set when prices revert to or near the mean.
Basic Processing Techniques
- Smoothing: Similar to trend following, smoothing techniques help in clarifying the mean price level by reducing the impact of short-term fluctuations.
- Normalization: Especially useful in mean reversion to standardize the deviation of price from the mean, making it easier to identify extremes across different assets or time frames.
Conclusion
Trend Following and Mean Reversion are two fundamental methodologies in financial market analysis, each with its unique perspective on market movements. By employing these strategies thoughtfully, along with processing techniques like smoothing and normalization, traders and analysts can enhance their understanding of market dynamics and improve their decision-making process. As with any investment strategy, the key to success lies in disciplined implementation, thorough backtesting, and effective risk management.
gbpjpy analysis elliott. Don't forget about stop-loss.
Write in the comments all your questions and instruments analysis of which you want to see.
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P.S. I personally will open entry if the price will show it according to my strategy.
Always make your analysis before a trade
#ONE → Continue correction of wave 3 or CIn time h2, if the neck line is broken, this correction will continue until the limit of the green zone. Considering that the previous wave has corrected up to 23%, we should probably be in wave 3 or C, which will touch the green box area after breaking the neckline.
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Massive Recovery 1/29 and thoughts for TSLA through WeekA huge surprise with a massive recovery today, ending the day with a cup-handle formation, and there is plenty of upside left for TSLA. We may even potentially close up the gap to $208; but I believe it is dependent on a few factors. Here are my thoughts on price action for TSLA this week:
Possibility #1: Run up to 0.5 Fib level $195.41 Tuesday. (Orange arrow)
With major earnings coming (such as MSFT/GOOG on Tuesday) I expect the entire market to go up in anticipation to positive earnings. Since TSLA just bounced off a major support of $180, TSLA is a candidate to move faster than the market (such as today with a 4.3% run vs the S&P500 under 1%.)
We may also have a run up compounded with an anticipation to positive news from Wednesday's FOMC meeting (buy the rumor sell the news.) If given positive news (anything not already priced in) we may even have a run up to closing the gap at $208 later in the week.
Possibility #2: Choppy trading through Tuesday until FOMC (purple line) for the following reasons:
Per Yahoo Finance: "Markets see rates unchanged in January and Predict 48% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in March." If some expectation is priced in, we may have a low volume day until further confirmation.
Since we just hit ATH on S&P500, investors may be more reluctant in trading and we go side ways until the FOMC meeting. If nothing major comes from the FOMC meeting, we may have continued sideways trading for the rest of the week, bouncing off $188.
I believe possibility 2 is a bit more likely, but not much more than possibility 1. Coming off a recent ATH on S&P500 we may see a retracement overall tomorrow, but options flow on TSLA indicate to me that we are bullish for the week. There is a strong possibility that the market has already priced in rate cuts, so this may lead to a sell the news scenario (we may bounce down to $185-$190 before moving to the next level.)
As of writing, options expiring 1/30 on SPY put/call volume ratio sits at 1.18, open interest ratio at 1.47. (Figures from Barchart)
TSLA options expiring 2/2 have volume put/call ratios at 0.87, open interest ratio at 0.74. (Figures from Barchart)
S&P Futures at -0.025% in the PM. 1/29.
In the news:
First Neuralink chip has been implanted for the first time. (This may bring positive views on Elon and by proxy to TSLA.)
Capital Expenditure of Tesla may decrease from $10 Billion from current fiscal year to $8-10 Billion by fiscal 2025 and 2026 (per Yahoo Finance.)
Two Tesla executives to sell stock, up to 281,116 and 115,500 respective shares (per Yahoo Finance.)
Lastly, my own plan: I may or may not take a position depending how we open in the AM. From the graph, the lines you see to the left of the cup-handle were my previous possibilities I set up from last week. Friday, I was expecting TSLA to retest it's lows and I took some put positions through the weekend. (See ) Sold them immediately in the AM today when a strong bull signal was built, and went calls on SPY (should have gone calls on TSLA instead with that massive recovery, but hindsight is 20/20) I don't plan on holding anything through FOMC for personal risk tolerance reasons. I am a bit reluctant because TSLA has the potential to swing hard, so I may have relatively small positions. This week will be crucial for knowing if we will try for breaking through the upper channel at $240 in the medium to long term (see: ) -OR- we bounce back down to $180.
Those are all my thoughts, I'll update this if I see any interesting news that I find relevant to TSLA this week.
EURCAD BUY | Trading AnalysisHello Traders, here is the full analysis.
Watch strong action at the current levels for BUY. GOOD LUCK! Great BUY opportunity EURCAD
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💹 TSLA next week prevision 💹Bearish beginning of the week looking for 100% of movement 3 of the Elliot wave. It can go down to the 231.16 area at least. Afterwards it can have a slight rise looking for movement 4 to 238.85 minimum to continue falling to 225.51 or more. In general bearish trend during this week with few options to go long.
HelenP. I Gold can continue to decline inside consolidationHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Some days ago price declined to the support level, which coincided with the support zone, and then tried to rise, but failed and made a downward impulse below the 1980 level, breaking it. After this, XAU in a short time rose back and even later started to trades in consolidation, where it rose to the resistance level, which coincided with the resistance zone and top part. Then price rebounded from this level and fell to the support level, but at once rebounded and made an impulse up back to the resistance zone. But a not long time ago it declined from this zone and now it continues to trades in range. For my mind, I think that Gold can rise a little more to the resistance level and then it will continue to decline. That's why I set my target at the 2030 level. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️