XAUUSD#F1---> Fundamental analyticsGood day, dear investors and colleagues traders!
Your attention #analytics view on #Gold / #Xauusd:
#Comment_to_current_ situation on the asset:
A landslide drop in quotes. After all, stock indices are the same as they have been for 30 years, and gold is absolutely not in demand.
Central banks are lowering their rates, increasing quantitative easing programs, and gold is falling evenly.
This behavior is easily explained by 2 factors:
1 - Technical factors and we will talk about them below.
2 - Reduction of the positions of stock, banking and other persons to cover losses from current prices of stock assets.
Many investors have very serious investment rules.
Such as share:
- The share of one instrument in the portfolio;
- Maximum drawdown;
- Risk hedging rules (complete disposal of assets / hedging through the purchase of put options);
! (Not to be confused with binary options)!
- Investment rules;
- investment tools;
Both stock prices and product prices, or simply balance the portfolios.
In the face of all the factors for the growth of gold.
#Technical_comment_to_current_ situation:
Having examined the global D1 chart, we can see the most classic 5-wave movement. From August 15, 2018 and at a price in 1159 to the present day with a peak for 1703.
To date, we have already received an objective correction to point A, which is until the moment when we have to trample at the levels of 1560-1580.
Wave B is ready by 1640.
However, this is the most unlikely scenario to date. Since fundamental factors contradict him.
Most likely, we will see that gold prices at new highs fell to 1480-1400.
#Fundamental_analysis:
To get started, we want to provide some important facts:
For this month, the rate was reduced:
- Bank of England (#Boe) from 0.75% to 0.25%;
- US Federal Reserve (#FED) c 1.75% to 1.25%;
- Bank of Canada from 1.75% to 1.25%;
- Reserve Bank of Australia (#RBA) from 0.75% to 0.5%;
Additional incentives have already begun to provide:
- Bank of China (#PBOC) (reduction of reserve requirements, issuance to affected companies, loans at a minimum rate.)
- The ECB (#ECB) increases the cost of the program by $ 120 billion (QE from the ECB), providing TLTRO by -0.75%.
As we see, the largest world prices are reduced in percentage terms and are economically liquid.
Moreover, we have the opportunity to reduce the rate to 0.25-0% and have already begun to provide banks with liquidity in the amount of $ 1.5 trillion.
The ECB should begin quantitative easing (QE4) and provide banks with even additional liquidity.
A decrease in the range of 0.5-0.75% is expected with a probability of 100%.
Precious metals prices should begin a vertical take-off.
If gold can be traced over the past 20 years, then, what from a protective asset, gold begins to turn into a speculative asset, similar to # DOW30. He is certainly falling now.
This rule was violated only if he had to ban trading operations, and they had to liquidate their positions in the period from September 3, 2012.
#Bottom line: if we really succeed in the US, we will see that gold prices and their growth will be stable.
Waiting next FED, waiting QE4.
Regards to subscribers,
Ltd ”Wermelgion and Partners Investment”
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