S&P 500 - Not Time to Get Bullish (yet)SP:SPX Hello traders. Let's take a look at the S&P500 to see if the chart matches the sentiment over the last few days.
In my opinion SPX isn't quite ready on higher time frames for serious bullishness. Others may disagree but when an objective method of trend analysis is applied to the weekly chart it becomes difficult to make a bullish argument. When two methods of objective trend identification are used and they both suggest a down trend, it is nearly impossible to draw another conclusion.
Now before anyone thinks that I'm bearish on the S&P500 let me put my personal stance in the spotlight. I'm actually trend neutral at this juncture due to the fact that higher time frames are ranging in a wide, slightly chaotic range. We'll objectively identify that as well, of course.
In the first photo of the SPX weekly chart I have used a method of trend identification identifying key levels of support and resistance. For any one of these swing highs or lows to be identified it had to pass three tests:
(1) Price action must have broken a key level of support or resistance
(2) Price must have pulled back with two consecutive candles of the same color.
(3) These candles must be red if price recently broke resistance or blue if price recently broke support
Using these rules we see that the SPX was in an objectively defined uptrend from 23 March 2020 (Covid Low) to 03 January 2022 (all time high).
During this timeframe the market was taking out objectively established swing high resistances and respecting them as a level of support. This led to higher highs and higher lows. Technical traders understand this as the definition of an uptrend.
Once the all time high was reached, the market began shifting behaviors. It began taking out objectively defined support and respecting them as levels of resistance. This led to a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Recently, SPX was able to peek above a critical resistance level but could not hold above it. This is a disruption to the down trend but does not rule out the possibility of downward continuation. There is no pattern of higher highs and lows established (yet) and there is only one higher high (yellow circles).
Currently the higher high theory is subjectively defined according to our rules and has not been clearly respected as a level of support or resistance since. Additionally the move comes from a lower low in between our two circles which suggests disruption and weakness but not necessarily a reversal.
Our second objective trend identification method will come from the anchored VWAP tools. We'll use the same two key reference points - Covid low and all time high. We see these with the blue AVWAP dynamic lines.
Price action has validated both of these anchored vwaps in the past as both support and resistance. The read is pretty simple with them. Price is bracketed on both sides by support and resistance. It has not convincingly broke and held above or below either one, leaving price in a range.
In my experience when price is ranging I do not break out my bear claws or my bull horns. I take a position of neutrality in the market and look at the extremes of the range. It is there that I find opportunity to fade the market back to the other extreme.
There is great confluence between the anchored vwaps and simple line work to suggest that these zones of support and resistance are valid. If treated as such, then the appropriate time to get bullish (or bearish) would be when price breaks out of the range. Until then my game will be to fade the range and continue to be neutral. This is also a disciplined, measured, and objective approach to technical trading and doesn't involve the predictions that many will make.
Anchoredvwap
SPY in a downtrend? Where's Top? THE ANSWERS!Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid.
Interesting:
A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. **
A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF.
Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF but invalid in another.
A HH is established when the previous HH is superseded by a new candle's _____________ (fill in the blank).
Answer: It's the new candles **close** that takes out a previous high, **not** its own high. Once that condition has been met the new High is promoted to the status of HH.
Important:
SPY's 1 week down trend was invalidated when the HH of $393.16 established on the 28th of June, 2022 was taken out by the close of $395.09 on Friday, July 18th, 2022.
Chart: 2 week downtrend is still valid and the current 2W candle closes in 5 days. (8/12/22)
The trend remains valid if that close is below the previous HH of $417.44 established on June 2nd 2022.
Very important:
*** The high of (this) week is not relevant to the 2W downtrend. Only the candle Close on Friday (8/12/22).
Implication (not opinion):
If SPY rallies to $420, the downtrend is still valid.
If SPY rallies to $500, the downtrend is still valid.
If SPY rallies to $600, the downtrend is still valid.
If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid.
... *as long as* price falls back to $417.44 by EOW.
The point: ... idk. Ask me in 2 weeks.
Where is "top"?:
It's the price where the last bear goes long (aka covers). In other words when there is not a single buyer left.
** Starting with Homma Munehisa, (1755) The Fountain of Gold—The Three Monkey Record of Money.
to the more contemporary: Al Brooks, (2009) "Trading Price Action Trends"
.. and everyone in between.
$spx $amzn bull trap of the decade setup?made a vid for a friend, thought I'd make public to get feedback (on the analysis, the vid's my first so take it easy! :)
both amazon and the market as a whole are due for a leg lower but one that could occur in a stand-out fashion, befitting the historic significance of this moment from multiple perspectives.
#ANC / $ANCANC Ready for another Pump
Adam and eve patter after confirmation will send it back to where it was before the crash.
Why I'm Short Bitcoin MBT FuturesAfter that steep selloff we had in Bitcoin down to around 25k I anchored a VWAP to that day to see if we could hold above it to gauge the strength of the market coming off that low. I also kept up a simple 10 day moving average to gauge the trend of the market. The entire rally off the low we held below the 10 day moving average and as of today we failed to hold above the Anchored VWAP. Both of those are signals of weakness to me and adding to that my Bollinger Bands are also telling me that the market still favors the short side. This area for me is pretty good risk reward as I will stay with the shorts until a daily close above the 10 day moving average or a violation of the recent high off the lows around 31,000. As I recorded today we are right around 29,100 and I am slowly getting in to the short side looking for a possibility of the 25,000 low to be tested and possibly even lower prices following that. I mentioned in the video I am using Micro Bitcoin Futures to execute my shorts. I am also executing my trades on TradeStation which you can connect to TradingView to trade spot, futures and crypto.
Derivatives trading is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
How I Day Trade The E-mini NasdaqSimplicity is King when it comes to day trading futures. One of the keys for me when I am day trading futures is to find one side of the market to trade on and stick with it throughout the day. I think too many people get caught up trading both sides of the market and get themselves over trading. In today's video I show you a simple strategy using a 3 minute opening range along with an Anchored VWAP to help you determine if the day is going to be choppy, or a trend day. This strategy is something I use to determine direction for the day and can easily be used as an addition to your strategy to give you confirmation of trend.
Past Performance is not indicative of future results. Derivates trading is not suitable for all investors. This is not investment advice.
How I Trade A 2-Way Market In The E-mini S&P 500 FuturesI see a lot of talk on whether the S&P is in a bull or bear market and IMHO, neither the bulls or the bears have control right now. I think this is a 2-way tape frustrating a lot of bulls and bears. In this video I share my simple process for assessing how we are in a 2-way market, not a bull or bear market and how I am using Anchored VWAP's to keep me out of trading the middle and keep me trading the edges. As of right now I am looking at 4375 to get tested in the coming day(s) where I will look to establish a long position. If that holds I will look for a retest of 4444.50 and potentially a rally up to 4526. A daily close below 4375 I would be out of my longs and then I think that the bears have a chance to take control of the market.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Derivatives trading is not suitable for all investors.
ANC - Data for Breakout trendello trading friends,
ANC looks on an interesting zone depending on TA - even as BTC shows a breakdown trend on the low time frame - ANC has against price action - which means it could breakout - when BTC starts to get some volume trend back.
Time will learn or this coin will hold its position and breakout.
_ This is not a trading call - trade only depending on your setup.
Good time.
JICPT|BA range trade setup on AVWAP(188-227) Hello everyone. I just noticed BA moved between two anchored VWAP lines that I selected the start date of the high created in March of 2021 and low created in March of 2020 respectively.
In addition to the AVWAP, what really got my attention is the formation after the disappointed earning report. The Doji bar just formed at the key level. It's more like a bullish signal for me.
So, buy low and sell high. Price has consolidated for the past 3 days which may have a bullish leg-out candle tomorrow.
Give me a like if you're with me.
TWI - Titan InternationalExtremely small company, under $1bn market cap. Not a typical 'tech growth stock' but they have really nice earnings growth and strong estimates for next year, as well.
Purchased a quarter-sized position on Monday as the stock came off its anchored VWAP and was showing extreme relative strength compared to the overall market. The stock is climbing the right side of a nice base that began back in May 2021. Earnings coming up in a few weeks; will need to build a cushion to hold through.
JICPT|GBPUSD retreated from supply zone with decreased volume!Hello everyone. GBPUSD chart got my attention as it pulled back from upper boundary of the downtrend channel. I also noted that it lack the volume to pass the trouble zone where the anchored vwap was sitting above around 1.3740.
So, simply put, I'm interested in bearish setup at the current position. Where would buyers come in? In my opinion, buyers might be interested in the key level below around 1.3500 . If the 1.35 got firmed violated, the next level is 1.34 where it got buying pressure last time around 61.8% fib retracement.
JICPT| Watch how Nasdaq reacts to previous low next weekHello everyone. Escalated geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine has triggered massive sell-off on last Thursday and Friday.
Now, Nasdaq is approaching previous low again. How will the index react to the level is key to watch next week. If buyers couldn't defend the sellers, market is likely to further decline to 12200 where anchored vwap sits. In addition, abcd pattern also indicates 12200 is a possible support level.
What if the previous low manages to defend the sellers? I want to see high volume with thin spread candle formation or it's likely to be violated.
Frankly speaking, I don't believe the tension will eventually turn out to be a war. What do you think? Feel free to share your thoughts below.
Thank you for your support.
JICPT| Chewy rebounded from 1yr low with trouble zone ahead!Hello everyone. Chewy has been down on the disappointed earning report released on September of last year.
Now, we can see clearly from the chart that the downtrend channel has been well respected with price unable to break every control high.
The nearest bearish structure is around $60-62 where my two anchored vwap lines are sitting above. In my view, this could be a trouble zone which is hard for buyers to break, unless we have surprised figures due on March 29th.
What do you think of chart? Give me a like if you're with me. Thank you for your support.
JICPT| EURJPY bearish daily setup on supplyHello everyone. Happy Chinese New year! I've just been back home from a family trip.
I came out the bearish setup on the following reason:
Weekly: Bullish flag pattern indicates that price might have a pullback for the arrival/violation of the upper boundary line(132.40-133.40).
Daily: After big bullish bars, buyers may be exhausted. In addition, I refined the zone on the daily to reduce the wide space given by the weekly chart.
The below solid space is around 125-126way down by apply anchored vwap or ema.
Trigger: set the alerts to watch the price action then.
What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me. Thank you for your support.
JICPT| recommend JPM exposure despite weaker earning report Hello everyone. JPM has been down around 20% on the weaker earning report and market turbulence.
However, it has been bouncing back from key level one weekly. I listed the reasons to be bullish on the daily chart for your reference:
1. VSA 2. Flip 3. multi-timeframe analysis 4. market mood.
Beyond those, the rate hike by FED this year(probably 3-4 times with quickest start on March)also makes JPM preferred assets for investors. I listed reasons in the related idea posted almost one year ago.
I also recommended clients to allocate part of their money in Reits to hedge against the rising inflation.
The only free lunch is diversification. That's the easy money we couldn't miss.
What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
JICPT| Tesla avwap & DZ bullish setup on multi-timeframeHello everyone. It's been a while since my successful Tesla setup below. It's very interested to re-visit the stock after recent sell-off despite better-than-expected earning report.
Actually Tesla has dived more than 35% from the high created on early Nov. 8th of last year. By using the VSA, the diminished volume suggested that buyers' incapability to move the price higher.
1. Anchored VWAP: I chose two obvious places as start points for AVWAP on Jan and March of last year. Two met around $800 which served as a solid holder to keep price from going lower. In addition, I selected the historic high to identify the possible trouble level. It sat just above the $1000 key whole number level($1027). I will use it as a short-term trouble level .
2. The recent bounce from $792 was also in line with the weekly demand zone sitting around. If you look at the chart, it also happens to be the flip zone below bear trap .
I've put other write-up on the daily chart for the setup
Give me a like if you're with me.
Thanks for your support.
JICPT| Microsoft has to conquer key supply around 317Hello everyone. My bullish setup of Microsoft(274-280) worked well in the middle of the massive sell-off. You can refer to the related ideas below for more details.
So, What's next for the price?
Weekly: It's definitely bull trend. I used the ema instead my duo MA system layout. Key structures got respected well.
Daily: There are something I want to cover here.
1. Volume spread analysis(VSA) : the low volume combined with 2 tried rules indicate the likelihood of buyers to push the price to new highs.
2. Anchored vwap: I chose two place as the start point where both met around $317. On top of that, 318-323 happens to be the nearest control high & solid rally-base-drop supply zone. What's more, it's also the flip zone. We gotta be open our eyes on this area and how price react to it.
3. ABCD pattern: the wick that went beyond the second redline suggested the overaction created by sellers amid the massive sell-off.
I'm still very bullish on Microsoft. I'm confident that trouble zone won't hold it back. If so, it'll just create another buying opportunities for investors.
What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
BTC long and short scenariosSimple trend analysis on BTC. As long as we hold this weekly trendline we should see a nice bounce back above $50k. I'm looking for the KST to reset and cross back over 0 before full confirmation. If we fail and break down through this trendline then I'm looking for a flush to the anchor around 31k. If you notice, the price always gravitates back towards the anchor eventually. If you are unfamiliar with anchor VWAP, it shows you the average price of holders from which candle you place it on. GLTA
$LC mean reversion long idea, offers 100% upside. Strong growth.$LC mean reversion long after the stock has drifted significantly lower, company is under valued here and doing triple digit earnings. Expecting buyers to show up around this demand level and shorts to cover causing a nice snapback in price.
PUBM - PubmaticTrade opened off of the double-bottom from the PEG day low. This is my second time trying to buy this name this week. I originally bought on Monday as it began to reclaim PEG day anchored VWAP but was quickly stopped out that same day.
PUBM has good EPS growth & sales growth to support it. Buying off of this double-bottom offer a clearly-defined level to manage risk from. If it breaks back below, I gotta go.
If the stock can reclaim its anchored VWAP, I will look to buy more and raise my stop under this afternoon's consolidation.
LC - LendingClub CorpDoubled position @ $47.96 as it rebounded off its higher-low and reclaimed the anchored VWAP from its day 2 breakout, giving me an average price of $46.22. Stop loss raised to $43.20 but still under the PEG anchored VWAP , giving me roughly a $3.00/share risk on the entire position which results in about 50bps of risk in terms of the overall portfolio.
Looking to add size to the position one more time if it can break out over the day 3 high around $49.30, at which time I will raise the stop loss to accommodate for the new risk.
TEAM - Atlassian CorporationStarted position in TEAM this morning after it undercut & reclaimed its PEG low yesterday. Very small, 30bps risk. Will increase position size if the stock reclaims its PEG day anchored VWAP and again if it clears its inside pivot around $462.50.
Stop loss is below yesterday's undercut low.