Anchoredvwap
DAX with a downside potentialEuropean equity indices are far behind the US markets.
If we experience correction in ES and NQ, indices such as DAX gives us very clean structure to follow.
Break of a trend line to the downside should take us around a yearly vwap and anchored vwap support around 11600.
CCI Divergence and Liquidation VolumeGLD and TLT led ETF redemptions in the previous 7 days indicating a shift away from defensive sentiment. SLV played catch up in July-Aug, ripping to 27.39.
Among the price/volume family of indicators, CCI showed the most dramatic price divergence. CCI cooled down from 401 to 124.90 while price rose 25% in the same time frame.
Using anchored VWAP from July 16th, prior to the face ripping rally, we can see that the average holder from that point in time is in the money, and the VWAP is behaving like support. From last week's blowoff top, Anchored VWAP is behaving as resistance.
This week 's price channel is almost double in volume vs last week. This is a hands off moment to spectate the consolidation for rally participants who cleared their positions in the money recently. I am looking for a bigger pullback, otherwise I would rather trade other asset classes.
WLBMF wedge/ABC/AVWAP support-ABC correction with C = 100% extension of the A wave found support at the exact 100% level (.65), this level is also the VWAP from the March low
-Correction occurred within a falling wedge/pennant pattern
-Bullish RSI divergence with RSI breakout makes upside price breakout probable and imminent
Looking for test of highs @ .97
***Disclosure I am long today from $ .74
Bullish Bias - Unless VWAP BreaksI am fully comfortable with how market price reacted to my volume profile levels. It is time to write some update on that.
I called for the filling of the zone roughly between 11k and 12k. There needs to be some market action. This is pretty much happening now. The market also respected my Low Volume Zone. There was pin nearing it closely and then there was a great pin going through and returning back above.
An indicator that closely lines with the recent bottoms is VWAP anchored at real lows from 2nd August. I think long from its level to 11900 is now possible and probable. I, however, think, there still need to be more volumes before the price can start harassing 12k level or go above. Selling activity was too big. So let the sellers exhaust now in the highlighted range, so there are none left when BTC goes higher.
Alternatively, AVWAP level can break. If price remains below it, higher correction is on the horizon. 20 Daily MAs and 50 Daily MAs are levels to keep an eye on for the minor reaction and I will highlight new profile levels later if that happens.
I am giving the path up near the VP level of about 60%. My analysis will become invalid if we spend more hours below AVWAP.
Have a great trade!
AXDX wedge consolidation, EMA/VWAP supportEMA: 5 (orange), 20 (blue), 50 (purple), 200 (dotted)
I am looking for AXDX to breakout of wedge consolidation above the $10 level. The $10 level is the top of the wedge and the VWAP from the February high and should be the final hurdle before a move to the upside. The stock is trading at the VWAP from the April 30th peak and above the VWAP from the March low. Price has found 20 EMA support with 6 consecutive closes above the 20 EMA and I anticipate the upward curling 5 day EMA will begin to push price through remaining resistance.
MNLO VWAP/EMA supporting higher pricesEMA: 5 orange/20 blue/50 purple/200 black
Left: price consolidation above VWAP from recent peak following a breakout from the corrective channel, risk is to the upside and I have to expect higher prices while the stock can stay above $2.20
Right: stock reclaimed 50 EMA after falling below, closing above the 50 for 4 consecutive days, on this most recent trading day the 5 EMA crossed above 50 EMA on approx. 2x the 10 day average volume.
Trade plan: this past trading week, VWAP from April low was tested, was turned to support and the stock subsequently began trading above the VWAP from peak and the 50 EMA, and the stock has not looked back. Additionally, with momentum now to the upside, I expect the 5 EMA to continue to push price higher. Being said I have a few risk management ideas you can think about: stop loss at $2.15, trailing stop loss 2-3% below the 50 EMA, or to really capture short term momentum I use a 2-3% trailing stop below the 5 EMA.
Personally I'd pick some price below the 50 EMA as it has been tested several times, now acting as strong support, and my opinion is downside risk is minimized in the short term and I don't want to be stopped out unnecessarily.
VIR & BNTX: 2 Covid stocks at decision pointsBoth VIR and BNTX show similar price action since their respective Covid related drug announcements which put in their March highs. Both stocks have been consistently supported by their VWAP from IPO and their 50 day EMAs. Both stocks also remain held down by their VWAP from their March highs. With both stocks approaching the apex of their descending triangles, I anticipate price needs to expand in one direction or the other. I anticipate both stocks break higher on renewed Covid concerns/media coverage. If you were to take a look at CEMI/GNMK/AYTU/NNVC/IBIO, to name a few, these Covid related names look like they are ready to reverse to the upside after consolidating throughout the market's rally off the lows. It is interesting that with the selloff we saw this past week, some of these Covid stocks seemed to turn the corner.
Disclosure: I own both BNTX and VIR
WTRH C&H + 200 EMA SupportBull case is WTRH holds 200 EMA and breaks above the $2.75 level which is the local resistance and VWAP from May 12 top. Entire triangle consolidation is occurring above the green line which is the VWAP from the March 19 top. I have removed my normal moving average setup as not to clutter the chart, but if you were to check out the hourly 5/20/50 EMA setup, the EMAs are converging very tightly, so I expect this one to move soon. WTRH is a food delivery stock, so any buying of other Covid names or news of a 'second wave' is bullish for this stock. Being said, market appears to have some favoritism for the Covid resurgence narrative, with this stock consolidating nicely since its parabolic run up. I'll be keeping an eye on this one, I have an alert set for $2.75
I will be featuring the anchored VWAP more often now that Tradingview offers it. What I know about this technical tool is what I have learned by watching Brian Shannon who runs Alphatrends.com, you can find him on stocktwits @alphatrends. I am not affiliated with him in any way, only an admirer of his trading philosophy. I urge you to check out some of his charts and how his use of Anchored VWAP really gives you key support/resistance.
LPTX Inv. H&S within WedgeI am looking at a break of the $2.60 level to confirm breakout.
-Price tightening within wedge for 3+ months (depending on how you draw the wedge) and completing what appears to be the right shoulder of an IH&S. (The midline, as I have drawn it, fits very neatly).
-Price has recently experienced bullish diverging of EMAs with recent strong support found at the 50 EMA (purple) which also happened to be the midline of the H&S pattern.
-Price is coming off of .786 retacement from move off Nov '19 lows which tells me the stock may be in a potentially bullish impulse move
-Currently testing VWAP from the high on 2/19/20
-MACD upward trajectory appears very aggressive.
I like this one over $2.60. Assuming LPTX is indeed in the midst of a wave 3, and the .786 retrace was the wave 2 pullback, I have measured the minimum target as a 1.0 extension to the Wave 2 low which = $3.8.
May 31 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
2975-2900 Balance Area; Friday Spike.
Technical:
Risk-on sentiment in all major indices.
Monday gapped and accepted prices above the prior balance area.
Tuesday’s selling diverged from breadth and broad market sentiment.
Wednesday opened higher, reflecting underlying market sentiment in the prior session, but sold off immediately, testing and rejecting the prior balance area. After rejection, the market squeezed higher and closed above the open, the most positive outcome.
Thursday’s session continued higher, not supported by breadth and large lot activity.
Friday tested lower on news-driven intraday volatility, rejected, and then spiked higher into the close.
Opening within the spike, we balance and validate prices. Opening and remaining above the spike would be the most positive outcome. Opening below the spike base (i.e., $3030) would be the most negative outcome.
Taking out Friday’s low of $2992.00, important references on the downside include $2975 and $2860. A successful break above $3065.50, important references on the upside include $3090, $3111, and $3135.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Fundamental:
Key Events: Nonfarm Employment; Initial Claims; Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Surveys; Trade Deficit; Factory Orders; Vehicle Sales; Productivity And Costs; Construction Spending.
Ratings agency Fitch suggests Global Recession is bottoming out. bit.ly
Michael Burry may be wrong about the index bubble. bit.ly
House loosens PPP rules; Treasury, SBA set aside more funds for lenders. on.wsj.com
Airlines tackle social distancing with new rules. bit.ly
Airport traffic picks up as lockdowns ease. bit.ly
Which economies are reopening and why COVID killed globalization. bit.ly
Weak demand curbs China factory activity. yhoo.it
Bezos buying a stake in U.K. digital supply chain startup. cnb.cx NASDAQ:AMZN
Protests rage across America. cnn.it
OPEC, Russia bargain over extended output cuts until end of 2020. reut.rs
ECB to raise quantitative easing purchases under PEPP program. bit.ly
Investment-grade bond issuance to slow considerably. bit.ly
PPP failed to get money to industries and areas most in need. bit.ly
Lumber is higher on increased demand (i.e., home repairs, renovations, building). bloom.bg
Home sales drop 18%, while decline in inventory pushes prices to a record high. cnb.cx
Remote work to spark a housing boom in suburbs and smaller cities. on.wsj.com
Energy Transfer LP ($ET) warns of coming job cuts. reut.rs NYSE:ET
Kohl’s ($KSS) eyes trouble as sales plummet, digital business falls short. bit.ly NYSE:KSS
Tensions with China escalate over Hong Kong’s autonomy. bit.ly
U.S. considers COVID-19 coronavirus bill next month. bit.ly
COVID-19 crisis may trigger a rolling pension collapse. bit.ly
Study supports the wide usage of Gilead’s ($GILD) Remdesivir. bit.ly NASDAQ:GILD
Moderna begins new COVID-19 vaccine study. on.mktw.net NASDAQ:MRNA
Lower aggregate taxation; higher taxes will come; no bailout of pre-covid junk. bit.ly
NVIDIA ($NVDA) faces positive results, outlook. bit.ly NASDAQ:NVDA
Cboe Global Markets ($CBOE) expansion to Canada a credit positive. bit.ly AMEX:CBOE
Fairfield, Alabama’s bankruptcy brings back familiar Chapter 9 themes. bit.ly
Negative April credit card ABS performance confirms virus risks. bit.ly
Global venture funding through the virus, late-stage stays strong. bit.ly
Nasdaq CIO on policing foreign listings. bit.ly
Sports betting stocks see a surge, unhurt by pandemic. bit.ly
Money market inflows pause, validating rotation into risk. bit.ly
Discussion regarding the need to implement an OPEC+ exit strategy. reut.rs
Former Cisco Chair and CEO talks leading, growing through a crisis. bit.ly NASDAQ:CSCO
Data, statistics on how the virus is impacting local business revenues. bit.ly
Expedia Group ($EXPE) commits $275M to help industry rebound. bit.ly NASDAQ:EXPE
Rising home sales show American’s are looking past the virus. bit.ly
Dollar General ($DG), Dollar Tree ($DLTR) to outperform earnings. bit.ly NYSE:DG NASDAQ:DLTR
Sentiment: 33.1% Bullish, 24.8% Neutral, 42.1% Bearish as of 5/31/2020. bit.ly
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 2,565,182,968 as of 5/29/2020. bit.ly
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.3% as of 5/29/2020. bit.ly
Product Analysis:
ES: AMEX:SPY TVC:SPX
NQ: NASDAQ:QQQ TVC:NDX
RTY: AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
YM: AMEX:DIA TVC:DJI
NYA: TVC:NYA
GC: AMEX:GLD
CL: AMEX:USO AMEX:USL AMEX:DBO
NG: AMEX:UNG
ZB: NASDAQ:TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
Pullback for Bullish Entry?I've been accumulating GBTC since $4.28 and as I was looking for the next dip to buy more I ended up with this setup idea that I decided to publish. It'd be a nice swing trade assuming we get down to the entry, though to be clear, this is not financial advice - I am not even planning on trading this other than accumulating more at the entry of $9.85 (will probably front run of course). That said, if there's something you see here that you can make use of, then awesome!
If the GBTC premium stays where it is (which is a horrible assumption BTW), then the entry will be roughly equivalent to $8775 spot and the top-most profit target is around $12.3K.