ARK - Cathie Wood flagship ETF rising again LONGARKK double topped about July 19 and July 31st then downtrend until Fri Aug 18th,
On this past trading day, the technology market moved higher lead by TSLA and NVDA.
ARK reversed and started the retracement of the trend down. I see ARK targeting
45 in the mid Fibonacci levels and potentially beyond that to 47.8 being the base level
of the double top. The stop loss is the pivot low on Friday as ARKK awaits a momentum
boosting cross over the mean anchored VWAP. The two TF RS indicator shows the lower TF in
green well over the 50 levels with the high TF black line lagging.
The ZL MACD shows more confirmation. ARKK looks good to enter now. I will zoom from the 2H
to the 30 minutes to find an optimal entry. I may take a large stock position and supplement it
with a single put option for insurance against downside potential. I seek a 12-14 ROI on the
stock trade and some multiples of that on a 2 to 3 week put option.
Anchoredvwap
KO a dividend king a top holding of Buffett LONGOn the 1H chart, KO is well positioned having bounced up from the dynamic support
of the deviation line under the mean VWAP and now approaching the POC line of
the volume profile over the past month. the dual time frame RS indicator shows
lines in the mid-range between oversold and overbought. I believe KO will cycle
up towards the dynamic resistance of the upper VWAP lines. I will take a long trade
here targeting first 62.25 just below the first upper line for 60% of the trade and then
63.15 for the remaining 405 of the trade. The limit entry by buy stop at 60.1 while the stop
loss is under the POC line @ 60.85 the stop loss minimal magnitude sets up a very
good risk to reward ratio. I will take several call options as well.
Leave a comment if you would like to know those details. While much of the market
is sideways or maybe looking to drop, i see KO as diversified and global in its business
insulated from currency fluctuations and a consumer staple and so a solid fortress
from the chaos now available on a relative bargain sale in keeping with the philosphies
of Warren Buffett.
DLTR reverses up on pre-earnings move LONGDLTR has earnings in 3-4 trading days. On the 30 minute chart it has been sideways
and maybe a little down for this past week which is par for the course given the
general market. In the last trading day, price bounced up from the lower of
the two Bollinger band set at 2.618 standard deviations below the mean basis
band. The ZL MACD lines are upgoing and crossed over the zero-line. The
ADX lines both negative direction and positive direction are flat and ad the zero
level. The BB Oscillator demonstrates the bounce at the Friday morning open.
I will take a long trade in DLTR in the next three days anticipating that trader
interest and a little greed will push the price higher. I may take a call option as
well. If you want to know which call I may have an interest in taking, please leave
a comment.
DE falling into undervalued territory / Favorable Earnings LONGDE on the 4H chart is now setup for a long trade. It is now positioned just above a long term
anchored VWAP to which a stop loss can be set just below @ 390. DE was falling before
favorable earnings and has not yet reversed. I see this as an opportunity to trade an
industrial blue chip taking entry well below fair value and so a bargain.
I will get a mixture of a handfulof stock shares and a single option 4 months to expiration. The
target is selected to be 445 at the upper Bollinger bands confluent with the second deviation
line of the anchored VWAP. This is about 13% upside- while the option's profit potential is
substantially higher. If you would like to know the details of the call option leave a comment. (
if this idea is of interest considering liking and following :)
Hawaiian Airlines HA Reversal LongHA is on a 30 minute- chart. A Head and Shoulder pattern is drawn. It is assymetrical with
an ascending neckline extension. An anchored VWAP is added. Price is currently in the
deeply oversold zone near to the -2 standard aWVAP line. I see buyers and money flow
coming in at this level. The stop loss is 9. The first target is at 10.7 and so about 15% upside
in the area of the mean VWAP. The second target is the confluence of the July 10 pivot ,
the ascending neckline of the pattern and 2 deviations above aVWAP ( the thinnest red
line) at the area 12.5. This is about 35% upside. I will take this swing long trade and
investigate a suitable call option as well.
FORD watching for a reversal from deep oversold LONGFORD on the one hour chart has been trending down with dynamic support from
anchored VWAP lines. However the zero lag MACD is showing some bullish divergence
with upgoing MACD and signal lines in parallel from a cross under the histogram
which converted red to green. There was an associated spike in volume in the range of 3x
the mean. The last earnings report only a few weeks back had a significant beat on the top line.
I will place FORD on my watch list for next week. I likely will take a long trade on
Mondday 8/14 with planned targets on the chart based on VWAP standard deviation line levels.
I am especially interested to see if FORD will go on a bull run and fill the volume void
from 14.25 to 15. If profits are taken off 40%, 40% ane 20% this trade could realize 20%
in profit.
BNKU- Triple Leveraged Bank Sector LONGOn the hourly chart, BNKU fell from a head and shoulders in late July , crossed
under VWAP lines in a VWAP breakdown and pullback before an inverse head and shoulders
type reversal now underway. The zero-lag MACD is confirmatory. I will take a long
trade here. Projected stop loss and targets ( TP1-40% TP2 40% and T3 20%) are on the
chart. I see this as a very safe trade with an estimated 12% overall profit expected.
I am in a WFC trade and looking at ETFs DPST and KRE as well
VALE a junior miner can rise on the Gold bullrunNYSE:VALE as a junior miner could be reaosnably expected to follow spot gold.
The bottom line is quite simple. With fixed costs to mine gold, VALE can easily
expect to increase its margins when stop gold rises will above the breakeven
on a spreadsheet. The 2H chart shows price has descended into the support of
the long term anchored mean anchored VWAP line after a VWAP breakdown.
The PMO and ZL MACD are confirmatory for a consolidation sitting on dynamic
support.
Overall, the analysis is that of VALE setup to make a reversal for a bullish move
reflecting the gold run at large. I will take this trade long now.
TUP the newest meme fundamentally dead LONGTUP on the 30-minute chart has some decent technicals. Based on anchored
VWAPs one set for 8/1 and another 8/3, TUP has pulled back into solid support
at the two mean VWAP lines. Volume has been steady. It is in the middle of the
fair value zone and under the POC line of the volume profile. Analysis of that
profile is that price should seek the POC as if a magnet. there is could be
pushed up or repelled down depending of the relativity of the dynamic of
buying and selling pressures interplay in that zone. I see TUP as having 20% upside
for sure on the retracement of the trend down. An additional leg up and over the
POC line is possible or even probable but not a certainty.
I want to buy either AMZN or a leveraged gold ETF like JNUGSo my question is which one is better right now? To anwer that question, I set up a
daily chart of the ratio of the prices with a volume profile and anchored VWAP for
context and analysis. I have found that the ratio had a pullback into the support
of an anchored VWAP band below the higher and to the POC line where a bullish
contnuation resumed. On the RSI both the low and high RS lines are in a healthy
midrange. HA Candlesticks are fairly wide-ranged and rising from a base at the POC
line. My conclusion is easy, buy AMZN now. If or when rather AMZN cools off, incrementally
sell out of it perhaps to add to the leveraged gold ETF. I am a long term gold bug but need
to trade in the moment, and AMZN right now has far more glitter.
TMV leverage inverse ETF for treasuries SHORTTMV on the one-hour chart tested two standard deviations above the mean VWAP in
both late May and early July it fell to one standard deviation below VWAP but then rose
sharply into beyond the two standard deviations line ( thick red ) ascending into a YTD high.
I believe that this is due to the recent federal debt creditworthiness downgrade.
The threatened rise of BRICS reserve currency and potentially adversely affects the
value of the dollar ( DXY) while supporting gold prices. I see this as a good continuation play
no matter the overextension of price. Both the dual MTF and the zero lag MACD however
suggest a pullback. The mass flow indicator does as well. As a result I will look at TMF
to go long trusting the indicators to give me a directional bias.
SOFI Swing Trade RecapSOFI as a fin tech company has been volatile. Besides the issues of student loan
forgiveness, the federal adjustments of the intrabank overnight rates and inflation
inparting the budgets of its customers, the landscape has landmines and its litterd
with signs of fiscal damage. Knowing it had upcoming earnings and perhaps some
greed competing against fear with traders. I took a trade and the closed it on
earnings. Here are the particulars.
!. the 30 minute bare chart is overlaid with a double set of Bollinger Bands. The settings are
not the default. If you want them, like the idea and then ask. A linear regression line with a
period of 28 is added. The volume is underneath. Finally a MACD indicator in a lower pane.
2. For the entry, on July 27, late in the session, price fell outside the lower bands and then
came back inside them after printing a red Doji bar and a little surge of selling volume
above the running mean. There it was a simple easy entry. Price crosses over the
regression line. MACD lines crossed under the histogram.
3. The swing trade progressed and price action progressed. On the mornings of the report
release traders were freaked out. Was the beat good enough ? Volatity was over the top.
after a bit of a drop, volume came into the trade in a big way and price followed the lead of
volume ( serious money flow). Price shot higher and got beyond those BB upper bands with
hugh volatility topping wicks. Once price got back inside the bands I exited.
4. This trade yielded more than 25% in 3 day pretty good for just a little effort. Of course stop
loss was moved every time a 2% rise occurred the stop loss was moved up 2.2% getting closer
and closer to price gradually.
5. Price dropped into a full pullback within a couple of hours. I would have liked to play
the downside but I was overextended on the number of trades I was managing.
6. As an afterthought, price is now doing what is called a lower bollinger band walk,
That is to say, it is increasingly at risk to reverse and start uptrending. Price is under the
middle BB and a little under the mean VWAP. It is begging to reverse. I am waiting for
an entry on that and the wait will not be long.
( By the way a certain someone, you are a smart trader and you will most certainly know
I uploaded this idea for you).
TSLL - a leveraged TSLA ETF sitting on dynamic support LONGTSLL moves more than TSLA as it is leveraged. TSLA is volatile for a large cap and
TSLL is TSLA high octane verison. TSLL on the anchored VWAP bands has bescended
into the undervalued and oversold zone supported by teh thin red line the second
standard deviation below VWAP. It hit a pivot high in early July hitting the thin red
UPPER VWAP line about the, I analyze a reversal is coming with the final leg down
coinciding with the general market moves this week. Price is obviously below then
mean VWAP and the POC line. I think the rubber band effect and bargain buying will
propel it upward as may and short sellers liquidating their positions. I will take
a trade of a fiar amount of stock shares as well as entertain some call options.
If a trader is curious to my levels of interest leave a comment.
SVXY rises on returning greed or trader confidence LONGSVXY runs inverse to UVXY- it was trending up for weeks but fell off the
cliff with the VIXX spike on the fed news of the debt rating downgraded
( like the US posting an earnings miss) a 7% adjustment in almost no time.
The analysis now is the red candlestick pattern is that of inside bars,
a Doji then a green bar and a red. The zero-lag MACD has had a line cross
under the histogram showing bullish divergence coming into that indicator.
Price has come to rest for support on the one standard deviation line below
the mean VWAP. From this analysis I will take a long trade targeting the
POC line of the volume profile 87.5 as the final target for 66% of the trade
after taking 33% off at the mean anchored vwap at 85.85 The stop loss
today's pivot low of 82.85. This offers a very favorable risk to reward as
trader positive sentiment recovers.
Is NVDA done correcting? LONGNVDA shot up on earnings two months ago and more or less went sideways until
mid July when it trended up for a week and then reversed downward.
On the 2H chart, I have placed both a VWAP anchored to the earnings date as
well as a volume profile. Price is currently above the 0.5 Fib level as well
as at one standard deviation above the mean VWAP and above the POC line of
the volume profile. The mean VWAP and POC are confluent at about 422.
I suspect that it is at this level that volatility will be the highest and at where
buyers will step in to open a trade shares of NVDA that have been oversold
and are undervalued. Because of that, I will place NVDA on my watchlist for
a long trade when it trends down approaching 422. The stop loss will be
418 or about 1% while targeting the recent double top of 475 and so a zone of
horizontal resistance confluent with dynamic resistance in the red line of
two standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Confirmation of an upcoming
reversal is the histogram of the zero-lag MACD going red to green. NVDA has
had a great run this year (220%) and its heavy presence in the AI megatrend
bodes well for a good continuation.
FORD fell after good earnings - now reverses LONGFORD on the 2H chart double topped in mid July and then descended as it had reached
the second deviation line above the mean anchored VWAP. It continued the fall had a bit
of pre-earnings run up and then paradoxically fell with very decent top and bottom line
earnings. If you know why please let me know. After earnings and the fall, FORD reached
the long-term mean VWAP and reversed as can be seen on lower time frames. I see this
as a VWAP bounce, the favorite place for institutional traders to make their trades. A volume
profile and its POC line find the highest trading volumes of the time interval. the MACD
and Price Momentum Oscillators are confirmatory with reversal signals. I will take a long
trade here. The stop loss will be 13 below VWAP. Targets are 14 (25%) 14.5 (50%) and 14.85
(25%). This is a simple trade with $0.25 risk which will be eliminated once price gets
to $13.5 making it risk and stress-free. I have an options trade in mind. Comment if
you want my specifics.
BULZ - Technology ETF ( AI revolution )LONGBULZ is a 3X leveraged version of the Cathie Wood ETFs. As shows on the
2H chart BULZ broke out of the fair value channel of the anchored VWAP bands
in bullish momentum Not a coincidence. In three months it has gained over 110%
or 35% per month compounded. The MACD indicator shows the lines peaking over
the histogram a cross of them is pending. The mass index indicator shows a signal
into the reversal zone and falling as if about to trigger. This is a VWAP breakout
at its best. It jumped 7 % in one day and now needs a pullback reset.
My trading plan is simple. I will watch for a pullback to the blue line one standard
deviation above the mean VWAP. I expect a bounce off that dynamic support. The trade
will be a long-duration one until the technology sector cools off. Any future pullbacks to
the blue VWAP will have an incremental add to the position. Any pops in price over the second
VWAP line above the mean ( a line not visible here) will be used to signal a sell of a portion
of the position. All in all, this will compound realized profits while underway.
SOFI vwap crossover earnings 2 days LONGOn Friday the 28th SOFI had a good day. I am looking for more of the same going
into earnings. It dropped through the middle VWAP bands and remarkably rebounded.
Great volatility to be exploited. Some consolidation at the +1 Standard Deviation band
is normal and healthy. SOFI as a financial technology has been honing its margins
in a challenging environment. I see a long trade here and will take it being careful
to take profits quickly and pay attention to the earnings release. A stock trade on an
the intraday basis is considered. A 1 % stop loss is good enough since price is sitting on
dynamic support. The target is 10.0, the pivot high of mid-July, This is 2.5% for a modest
quick trade with a risk of 1 for a reward of 2.5. Just a basic trade at a good entry.
OPEN OpenDoor a Penny Real Estate LONGOPEN has earnings upcoming on 8/3. An analysis of the 4H chart with overlays shows
bullish momentum in the set of zero lag EMA lines as well as upgoing anchored VWAP
landlines. Price crossed over the mean VWAP ( thin black) and the POC line of the
volume profile one month ago. The MACD shows bullish momentum since July 24th.
The dual RSI indicator shows the low time frame green line rising and then crossing the
steady higher black time frame line the past trading day and both being at the 60
level.
OPEN is a long trade setup with earnings around the corner. I will take it.
SBUX upcoming earnings opportunity LONGSBUX fell going into earnings in early May and continued down all of May then pivoting
into a slow climb on this 2H chart through the lower anchored VWAP bands until the present
where it is about to cross the mean VWAP lines as signaled by an engulfing green bar after a
Doji. The dual time frame RSI lines have both near the 50 levels with the lower in green
slightly above the higher in black. I see SBUX rising in the earning upcoming this week.
The target is the ascending trendline in black at about 104 for a quick 2.5% ROI in 2 days.
I will play this with some call options contracts striking 102 expiring August 11th. I will take
half of them off with a 50% unrealized profit and let the remainder run until 8/9 to avoid
acceleration of time decay.
NVDA Breaking Out from Consolidatiom LONGNVDA has been in consolidation for two weeks. On the 1H chart, yesterday, the MTF RSI
indicator shows that the lower TF RSIc rossed over the 50 level and then crossed over
the higher TF RSI a clear and convincing sign of rapidly increasing relative strength.
Price is in a VWAP breakout now having crossed from the mean VWAP anchored into mid- June
and up crossing over the one and two standard deviation lines.
The zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram occurred in the after-hours trading
on Tuesday evening. Price has crossed over the POC line of the visible range volume profile yet
another sign of bullish buying pressure and momentum. Overall, my analysis is that NVDA is set
up for a long swing trade which I will take today.
BNTX biotech / currency play LONGBNTX a Germany company in the biotechnology and vaccine sectors out of Europe
and Germany is looking good on the 2H chart here with a volume profile and an
intermediate term VWAP overlaid. Price bounced off the bottom of the high volume
area of the volume profile and looks to be ready for a reversion to the mean and even
a sling-short move. The target here is the double top M pattern of mid July at 114.
The VPT and MACD are confirmatory of a momentum flip making for a long trade
entry. I will review the options chain for a suitable options trade with a narrow bid/ask
spread, suitable volume and open interest. If I cannot find one I'll take a trade of
10-20 shares of stock with a stop-loss of 105 to back up this trade while NVAX and MRNA
are also making moves.