IOTA - MIOTA Cup of TeaA possible Cup and Handle pattern is forming on the 1H timeframe IOTA.
(This is not financial advice, this is a volatile market where anything can happen)
AND
Ascending wedge drop target dropped to the exact length of wedgeJust wanted to show you all how the purple ascending wedge once it was broken out of dipped the exact height and angle of the wedge...so a very reliable pattern. Also wanted to note that we now have 2 4 hour candles that have closed below this head and shoulder neckline with the bulls desperately trying to lift it back up above the neckline...so far on the 1 day chart though we have yet to close below the neckline...I wouldn't consider it a definite breakout until I see 2 1 day back to abck candles close below the neckline...but with 2 closing below it on the 4 hour its definitely not a good sign. Hoping for a false breakout because if it is a valid breakout you can see by the red dotted trendline that it would take us all the way down to the red fib retracement level....which would be lower than both the grey ascending trendline which has acted as extremely strong support multiple times since last July and would take us even further down than the bottom we hit in February. So if you see today's 1 day candle close under the neckline be prepared to play the short game waiting on 1 more 1 day candle for confirmation. If the bulls can find a way to get the 1 day to close above the neckline...then there's still a slight chance for a ltitle more downside possibly finding good support at the ascending grey trendline or if it breaks below that at the same price we found februarys bottom at.....Once we find a clear bottom that is likely the time I will go fishing for extreme bargains in the alt coin market, but the way this head and shoulders is looking right now, there's a chance we could dip into the $4,000s before then. I certainly hope not but if so I intend to find a way to allow the dip to make more more btc in the process. You make your own decisions however as this once again is not financial advice. Best of luck.
BTC hits ascending wedge drop target, flirting w/ h&s breakdownBTC has just reached the target price drop of the ascending wedge breakdown shown by the purple dashed line. WWhile it doesn't surprise me it hit this price, it does worry me, because now we are in real danger of breaking below the neckline of this current head and shoulders..we have already sent a wick below it. In order to break it we will need at least 2 closes below the neckline on the 4 hour chart. Even then its not a guarantee that its not a fake breakout but the probability and odds are then at that point greatly in favor of a successful breakout. However 2 closes on the 1 day chart under the head and shoulders neckline will indeed signal a valid head and shoulders pattern. If this happens we may possibly plummet below my grey ascending trendline and possibly dip even lower than februarys low which is a very scary thought. So these next few candles are clutch. I'm still hoping we will eventually find strong support and a huge bounce back up from either the grey ascending trendline or just under it at the same price as februarys low thereby creating a massive double bottom pattern. The latter would probably be preferable, as it would have greater potential to take the price far higher. Anyways be careful out there if you aren't already still short, and you see 2 confirmation candles below the hea and shoulder neckline it may be wise to go short at least until right above the grey ascending trendline or possibly right above it if you are fishing to trigger a limit with a wick. A more adventurous trader may try to put their limit buy back in just above the low of february. As of right now technically the inverted head and shoulders pattern is also still in play because we haven't gone below its head but I have taken it off the chart currewntly as to not muddy up things with overlapping h&s patterns.
GBP/CAD WHERE ARE WE HEADED?Patiently waiting for this pair to break to the downside, prices could plummet at the 1.84000 Region OR we could see some real bearish action near the 1.86000 Region!
You could potentially jump in on this trade to the upside TP's of 1.84000/1.86000.
However be very careful because I'm expecting a sharp reversal very soon so if you manage you risk, I guess you could get exposure both long first and then eventually short.
SHORT ON THIS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
When this trade eventually does break I'm anticipating prices to approach the 1.64000 Region , this might take quite some time, however patience is needed in this market!
BE SAFE GUYS!
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on KBC(KBC) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below).
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
One green area represents one trade
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example for KBC(KBC) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
Fast EMA Buy=12
Slow SMA Buy=55
Minimum Buy Strength=56
Fast EMA Sell=12
Slow SMA Sell=55
Minimum Sell Strength=95
Trailing Stop (#ATR)=3
Result: 22.7 times better than Buy&Hold strategy
NetProfit: 590%
#Trades: 19
%Profitable: 63%
Buy&HoldProfit: 26%
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on AB-Inbev(ABI) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below).
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
One green area represents one trade
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example for AB-Inbev (ABI) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
Fast EMA Buy=9
Slow SMA Buy=30
Minimum Buy Strength=40
Fast EMA Sell=16
Slow SMA Sell=63
Minimum Sell Strength=40
Trailing Stop (#ATR)=8
Result: 2.27 times better than Buy&Hold strategy
NetProfit: 1002%
#Trades: 11
%Profitable: 63%
Buy&HoldProfit: 440%
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy Galapagos(GLPG) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below).
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
One green area represents one trade
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example for Galapagos (GLPG) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
Fast EMA Buy=12
Slow SMA Buy=39
Minimum Buy Strength=40
Fast EMA Sell=12
Slow SMA Sell=45
Minimum Sell Strength=95
Trailing Stop (#ATR)=3
Result: 3.15 times better than Buy&Hold strategy
NetProfit: 2370%
#Trades: 21
%Profitable: 71%
Buy&HoldProfit: 752%
XPloRR MA-Trailing-Stop Strategy on Apple(AAPL) beats Buy&HoldLong term MA-Trailing-Stop strategy with Adjustable Signal Strength to beat Buy&Hold strategy
None of the strategies that I tested can beat the long term Buy&Hold strategy. That's the reason why I wrote this strategy (link see below).
Purpose: beat Buy&Hold strategy with around 10 trades over a period of 10 years (average of 1 trade/year). 100% capitalize sold trade into new trade.
My buy strategy is triggered by the fast buy EMA (blue) crossing over the slow buy SMA curve (orange) and the fast buy EMA has a certain up strength.
My sell strategy is triggered by either one of these conditions:
the EMA(6) of the close value is crossing under the trailing stop value (green) or
the fast sell EMA (navy) is crossing under the slow sell SMA curve (red) and the fast sell EMA has a certain down strength.
The trailing stop value (green) is set to a multiple of the ATR(15) value.
ATR(15) is the SMA(15) value of the difference between the high and low values.
The script shows a lot of graphical information:
One green area represents one trade
The close value is shown in light-green. When the close value is lower then the buy value, the close value is shown in light-red. This way it is possible to evaluate the virtual losses during the trade.
the trailing stop value is shown in dark-green. When the sell value at the end of the trade is lower then the buy value, the last color of the trade will be red (best viewed when zoomed)
the EMA and SMA values for both buy and sell signals are shown as a line
the buy and sell(close) signals are labeled in blue
How to use this strategy?
Every stock has it's own "DNA", so first thing to do is tune the right parameters to get the best strategy values voor EMA , SMA, Strength for both buy and sell and the Trailing Stop (#ATR).
Look in the strategy tester overview to optimize the values Percent Profitable and Net Profit (using the strategy settings icon, you can increase/decrease the parameters)
Then keep using these parameters for future buy/sell signals only for that particular stock.
Do the same for other stocks.
Important : optimizing these parameters is no guarantee for future winning trades!
Here are the parameters:
Fast EMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Buy: buy trigger when Fast EMA Buy crosses over the Slow SMA Buy value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Buy Strength: minimum upward trend value of the Fast SMA Buy value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Fast EMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 10-20)
Slow SMA Sell: sell trigger when Fast EMA Sell crosses under the Slow SMA Sell value (use values between 30-100)
Minimum Sell Strength: minimum downward trend value of the Fast SMA Sell value (directional coefficient)(use values between 0-120)
Trailing Stop (#ATR): the trailing stop value as a multiple of the ATR(15) value (use values between 2-20)
Example for Apple (AAPL) (Start capital: 1000, Order=100% of equity, Period 1/1/2005 to now) compared to the Buy&Hold Strategy(=do nothing):
Fast EMA Buy=12
Slow SMA Buy=45
Minimum Buy Strength=40
Fast EMA Sell=19
Slow SMA Sell=45
Minimum Sell Strength=106
Trailing Stop (#ATR)=8
Result: 2.3 times better than Buy&Hold strategy
NetProfit: 6900%
#Trades: 7
%Profitable: 71%
Buy&HoldProfit: 2938%
well defined head and shoulders patternwell defined head and shoulders pattern with a 131ish neckline
We officially have gone above the neckline!We are officially above the neckline on the 4hr chart!! And with only 4 minutes left to go before this 4 hour candle closes...we may actually close this candle above the neckline! Very exciting time to be invested in btc! Now remember folks we still even if it closes above the neckline on the 4 hr chart are going to need the next 4 hr candle to close above it as well...we also want to see a huge swell in bullish volume to help confirm it. Also always good to double check indicators such as mac d and rsi to be safe....the biggest confirmation won't be until we have closed to 1day candles above the neckline...however 2 4hr candles closing above is a really good sign...I would even tread lightly and wait for a 3rd 4 hr candle if I was being super conservative. We may very well see the price dip back udner the neckline as a false breakout initially though so be prepared if that happens I imagine it will only take another day or 2 max before we get a legitimate breakout. Of course, this could be the legitimate breakout and we might not even ahve to worry about any fake outs. Best to be patient and see just to be safe though.
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Key Lines and Levels for Sunday TradesBitcoin Sunday Update Key Lines and Levels Today
Overnight Bitcoin has made a minor double top at 11530-11500
with a rejection spike into the secondary high showing loss of
upside momentum and the first sign that this rally is showing
of running out of steam here. In the process it has lost the
support of the lower big rising parallel and is now making a
continuation pattern within a smaller set of declining parallels
which are guiding the current descent. We were using the
lower rising parallel as the final trigger to close down longs and
so should have been busted out around 11230-11190 range for
a smallish 280 or point profit on a trade which went wrong on
us overnight. Not great. But we've still bagged 1424 points of
profit here over this last week so it's not all bad news. But it
was disappointing that the next target at 11790 was never
met overnight all the same as we were looking to short from
there when touched. Too bad. We begin again...
Bitcoin is currently trapped between the declining parallels of
the continuation pattern but we cannot consider buying again
unless and until the upper parallel is broken above at which
point we can enter long once more with stops 50 or so below
the break point/upper parallel.
Day traders will play the parallels in the interim, looking to
buy off the lower parallel and sell again off the upper. But
there is resistance at the 11192 line and it must break above
here for day traders to stay long now for another 200 points
back to 11300-11310 and the junction where the parallels
intersect- For the rest of us looking for the next swing trade,
we have to wait to get long until that upper falling parallel
has been broken above and has been retaken by the bulls and
held. Then we can follow. Until we see this price action
develop we wait and watch. We may get an opportunity
to get long from much lower down yet...but the break of
the lower rising parallel is not helpful to the bull case and
some day traders are shorting from the 11192 line with stops
above in the belief that upside momentum is spent, so we
have an eachway push and pull which day traders are playing,
though not with much conviction either way so far. The rest
of the market is watching and waiting for the next clear signal
to enter. More as the move develops through the day - for
fastest updates please see top left of
main page
RSI Reaching overbought conditions on the 4hrThe past 3 4hr candles have been somewhat indecisive closing as dojis with the most current 4hr candle started by dipping down low as a red candle all the way to the support line of the TLine(in yellow) before bouncing back upwards. Thecurrent minor retracement/dojis is mainly due to the RSI reaching up and touching the 70 range on the 4 hour...However the RSI is still looking very steady on the day chart so I think with enough bearish wicking on the next few 4 hour candles with them ultimately closing as dojis and helping to drop the 4hr RSI rate...I predict a much tighter range of resistance and support and lots of sideways trading for the next 1/2-3 days tops...However I think the big whales involved in bitcoin probaby want to see us break above the inverted head and shoulder pattern's neckline even more than us guppies so they likely won't be afraid to flex their dominance to help break that neckline within the enxt 1/2-5 days...the longer we go the smaller the amount bitcoin will have to climb to break that neckline. These patterns become somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy the more the big traders make their trading decisions based on them being triggered. I'd say only buy in at this point and really try your best to do so during dips(which as of now is anything in the 11200s or udner) With the 4hr RSI currently at near overbough levels this is usually when you will be able to catch great temporary dips.
Bitcoin is flirting with the neckline!Bitcoins bulls have been unstoppabull recently and witht he current price around 11430 it only has to reach 11600 to be firmly above the neckline. If it can close above on the 4hr and then close another followup 4 hour candle above that, odds are very good at that point that we have a valid inverted head and shoulders on our hands....those who have been following me for awhile now will realize that I was the first to call a second much more massive inverted head and shoulders that used the same head as the first one we saw weeks ago. I was calling this to happen before the second potential shoulder had even began to form. At the time I was calling it hypothetical because I wasn't certain a head of a head and shoudle rpattern could be triggered twice. Now that we are this close I'm pretty confident we will see it break/close above the neckline and form a valid pattern. Of course until it does that it won't be valid, but I'm more confident now than ever before that it will. Today's big resistance is at 11500...if the bulls can topple that as easily as they did the resistance lines of 11120, 11300, and 11400 yesterday then I see us very potential breaking above the neckline as early as the upcoming 1 day candle. it may decide to trade sideways for a day or 2 and possibly even retrace a slight bit before this happens though. So hodl with all your might and I reccomend buying in more at any convenient dips.
LONG ON EUR/GBP!I'm anticipating prices to ascend to the upside target of 0.90500/0.91500 which could potentially result in a +280 PIP gain .
I was initially awaiting prices to break the symmetrical triangle in which I entered however we now run the risk of prices going back into the normal range. If this happens worse case scenario, you break even and re - enter however if there's a kiss on the bearish trend line, prices could explode to the upside resulting in a very lucrative position.
TP: 0.90500/0.91500
1day candle closes as green spinning top confirming breakoutToday's 1 day candle has closed as a green spinning top giving us a confirmed breakout from the descending chqannel and also taking us another big step closer to having a valid massive inverted head and shoulders pattern. The Galaga Battleship is nearing completion and readying itself for blastoff....will have to break the neckline and have both a 4hr candle c lose above it and a big influx of volume to go with it..although leading up to a confirmed inverted head and shoulder we usually see volume placate during the forming of the second shoulder, however right after we break the neckline you should see a healthy increase in bullish volume. I'm thinking we should see a break above the neckline by the 5th or the 6th but that is just a guess there could be plenty of sideways price movement to extend that a few day longer and it could also happen even quicker than my projection. I'm still confident it will happen...but until you see a break above the neckline and close above it as well (around 11700) then there is not yet a valid pattern. Currently on the gdax order book we can see that at 11120 there is a huge sell wall of 300 coins and surounding that on either side are 100 coin orders and just above and below those orders of 50 coins or greater....collectively that should be enough to keep the price at bay and under that number for at least a few bounces....I've seen orders of only 12-20 coins go up against 100+ coin walls though recently and find ways to grow large enough in the moment to overcome them...so there's still a chance they could overcome that wall at 11120 as early as tonight...but for now it's forming very strong resistance.
Cup and handle tries to break through channel wall but failsJust a temporary short for the next couple 4 hour candles...only because the last 4 hour candle finished as a bearish engulfing candle...As you can see that channel trendline is a line of extreme resistance...the cp and handle has yet to hit its target price because of it...it will likely retest the channel trendline a couple more tiems and then eventually bounce through but we could dip down into the 10350 region potentially before we see it rally enough momentum to do so...keep a close eye on the epth chart determine the best places to sell and rebuy/ I'm long in the long term but in the very short term..short.
Fractals - Inverse Head and ShouldersAs much as I'd like to see one more lower low, the fractals of the inverse head and shoulders are hard to ignore.
The small head and shoulder broke out to the precise distance of a measured move to form our 1 wave in white. Once resistance of the downtrend, shown by the purple line, is broken we should see a move to the $17,500 level, which also coincides with the 1.618 fib level taken by the wave 1, and retracement of wave 2. If that plays out impulsively, the larger head and shoulder could see bitcoin break all time highs to the $26,950 level - $30,000 level.
Bearish AlternativeJust while everyone's screaming we broke out... while we haven't really confirmed it here is an alternate scenario. What do you think?
BTC may be trying to form a cup and handle on the 4 hourThanks to the sudden burst from the bulls a cup and handle pattern is currently in play...which is just the type of thing we would need to be able to break above the descending grend channel top trendline which is necessary to break the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder pattern....We shall know if we have a cup and handle pattern on our hands within the next 8 hours.
The Death Cross I was warning about sent the price plummeting.As I had said a couple days ago in a previous idea the death cross of the purple and blue moving average lines was dangerously close to occuring and would either cause a plummet in price or could potentially bounce off as well. The probability was much more highly in favor of the cross happening and at the beginning of the current days candle the 4hr chart 50EMA crossed under the 200EMA sending the price dpiraling downward. Major support happened at the 9200s region just as I was expecting and because of it we have seen a boucne back up. However the 50ema is still very much under the 200ema on the 4 hour so we need to see it reverse course soon if this inverted head and shoulders is going to become valid. The current bounce looks good on the 4 hour but the candlesticks on the daily seem to suggest a little more downside. On the 4 hour we got a nice green bullish reversal hammer though so hopefully the current 1 day candle will close as some sor t of doji. I still have hope for the head and shoulder pattern. Be cautious and try not to make any big moves at this time.
Why btc could drop into the 9200s before it reboundsShown here on the 4 hour chart I have a dotted horizontal white line representing the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. below that I have connected a yellow dotted trendline from the low of the first shoulder to the candles we currently have now on the 2nd shoulder. I also took a dotted white line and made it run parallel with the necklines slope...one I did that you can see the smaller dotted white line is a few pips lower than the yellow dotted line...this is where the price would need to fall to make the slope of the shoulders parallel to the neckine. I don't know if that is a requirement for a head and shoulder pattern but I'm guessing it probably is commonly the case. This is why I make this prediction. Time will tell whether or not I'm right and whether or not the head and shoulders even plays out in the first place.
Inverted head & Shoulders still very much in play / Death CrossHey all just an update...I've pulled my btc position via stop loss last night at around 10490 but have decided to leave ethereum in for now as its doing well with robinhood...As the price continues to pullback the good news is an inverted head and shoulder pattern is still very much in play....however as you can see with the small yellow dotted lines that show the current price in a trendline with the deepest price point on the left shoulder, we might still not be at the depth peak of the right shoulders dip just yet.... the small white dotted line directly underneath the yellow dotted line has the exact same trajectory as the dotted white neckline of the head and shoulders and that line bottoms out around 9580. so we could still dip to the 9500s in fact that's the exact pricerange I see on the gdax depth chart where it looks like we have enough support volume at that pricepoint to carry us back into the 1100s.....Now I'm sure there's been plenty of head and shoulder patterns who's necklines and shoulder tops didn't run exactly parallel to eachother but there is at least a increased likelihood and mild improvement in probability that if the price did pivot in the 9500s at the parallel price point that the odds of it becoming a legitimate inverted head and shoulders once the shoulder reaches the end of the right shoulder fot it to indeed be a massive validated head and shoulders pattern with at that point after volume confirms it a lot of upside. Let me know in the comments how often the head and shoulders pattern's shoulder and necklines don't follow a parallel trendline if you happen to know or get a chance. Lastly we recently had a brief golden cross recently between the 200EMA and 50EMA but it appears the blue line and grape line are headed towards eachother again..it may lead to another death cross or it could bounce off before that happens...a death cross could be what finally pushes things down to the 9500 range. Thanks for reading...play responsibly. Always set responsible exit and entrance points to whatever fits best with your life.
BTC/USD: Head & shoulders pattern confirmed?If the pattern confirms to be a H&S pattern, the right shoulder will be followed by Elliot Impulse waves. If the right shoulder is completed, I expect 17k$ to be the next target for bitcoin.
If the pattern doesn't turn out to be a H&S pattern, it's likely a lower low will occur (~3k$). I will make a new TA if it turns out to generate a new low.
