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FTSE 100 Index: UKX - Cycle High - Short Set-Ups with triggersFTSE 100 Index: UKX Long Term Time Cycles in FTSE Index After rising 10% at the start of the 2018 FTSE has fallen all the way back its start point for the year. Up 10% and back down 10% in 6 short weeks. The action looks unlikely to stop now. In fact it could be just beginning. Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD 0.61% Gann , told us to measure time cycles from high tolow and low to high as well as high to high and low to low and look for potential changes in trend as these hiddden cyclesrepeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of the high in 2007 as well as thesubsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point thatmarkets began a 10 month 20+% correction (for more detailsplease PM) . This cycle marks the period from 10.03.09 majorcrash low through to the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle low to low is 9 years ...which now brings us, after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days,culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and 10th March 2018... FTSE is already teetering on the brink of critical support at 7092. It has to cling on here on Monday for any failure will tip this index into bearish territory and trigger a short back to 6868 at least - and then if this level in turn gives way back to 6680-6637. Beneath here the next major support potential lies at the lower parallel and below here at 5777. So if 7090 gives way on Monday by more than 10 points look to short this index with stops above 7099, targeting 6870 initially, then the 6680-6637 range if 6860 fails to hold during Monday. It's quite probable that should 7090 fail come Monday, this Index will fall away in stages to test the lower parallel at 6004 on around 5th March - and only then bounce away to the upside again.This will present some wonderful shorting opportunities along the descent. However, in the very near term it's likely that contrarian traders will look to go long here, simply because the stop is so close (20 points away maximum now) but ready to reverse short as above if 7090gives way by more than 10 points. Time, as always, tells.
TVC:UKX
by sumastardon
ALPHABET: GOOG Volatility = OpportunityAlphabet: GOOG Curious Case of the Unfilled Gap Normally when Google beats earnings expectaions it tends to gap up and away for a couple of months or more and then, eventually, momentum begins to wane and it comes back off to fill the gap. It's been that way for so many quarters now and every gap has always been filled in the end - and notice when it does get filled that moment (that day, not minute as with Bitcoin) presents the best buying opportunity you will find...every time....because it tells you in advance where the low should be. Helpful if you're looking to build a long position in any FANG. Works every time. Except once. That red arrow at 900 shows the one large gap here into new high ground that has never been filled. Friday's price action has led to a second test of the last gap created during last earnings season. For those with a technical interest there is also a fabulous island reversal showing at the very top of the rally with a tiny gap created to left of the red arrrow at 1160 followed by the massive fracture which begins from the same level. The ensuing bear rampage takes price all the way back to that same gap zone before it bounces again. Mind the Gaps. They are very interesting from a technical perspective and create some great short term trading opportunities on the rare occasions when a stock like GOOG runs into a consolidation phase. Having bounced from the gap zone GOOG has rallied to test the underside of the structure to its left at 1046-1050 and come to a temporary halt at 1037. Nasdaq is likely to remain volatile next week, the environment we need to go out scalping Maybe Goog can still make a getaway from the gap zone, just as it has always done in the recent past (bar1) - but if so it still looks like it will need a retest to prove it. Whilst unable to move and hold up above 1046-1050 it's likely to retest 996-987 again. And if at any point on Monday 987 gives way it can be shorted back to 961. Then if this level in turn fails it can be shortred a second (or third) time to 942 and most likely back to the lower parallels where it becomes a buy again if struck with stops below for those who may have been waiting to buy Alphabet for the longer term. A 20% decline would create a target at 948 and 21% at 937. On the upside Goog has to move above 1050 and then hold up at 1037 on any retest to trigger a long but only if it holds up well at 1037 and then moves up through 1050 with some volume behind it - then it can be followed up to 1080 but run a stop up underneath it quite tight just in case it fails. The next near term long shot from here triggers from 1085 to 1120 and then from 1125 to the top of the gap at 1159. As to the case of the unfilled gap...to fill the missing gap the parallel will have to be broken. Google likes to fill big gaps. It's in its nature. It could happen eventually and if it breaks below 987 come Mondaythat will be the first signal that either the parallel or the gap itself will become the final low. More as this move develops.
NASDAQ:GOOG
by sumastardon
S&P 500 Index SPX Next Buy and Sell Points TodayS&P 500 Index SPX Next Buy and Sell Points Today A poor call on this index yesterday led to the loss of some 12 -15 points as the buy point at 2627 was broken and the stop at 2614 triggered. It wiped out the 6 point win earlier but at least the 60 point win on the short on Moday and the next 60 points or so from the long on Tuesday means the point tally for the week is still positive, if a little depleted. Yesterday's price action has driven the S&P to a new closing low, taking it back to fill the little gap that shows on this chart at 2584. A 10% move from the top = 2585, the low yesterday was 2580. So long as this low holds out today on any retest this corrrection remains a standard deviation - but the low at 2580 must stick now for the medium term trend to stay positive from here - any fall below 2580 by more than 4 points will tip this index back into bear territory and force it lower to 2543 (first short) and then if this level breaks to 2488 (second short). On the upside, whilst stuck within the range and below 2619 it's not giving a strong enough signal to trigger a trade...it has to break above here and hold there to trigger a rally to 2668 which should be worth following with stops just under 2600. Alternatively can be bought at 2607 current levels with stops below 2600 and added to once 2619 is broken above. This is higher risk but also higher reward. Others will prefer to wait for next signal to trigger before entering positions.
SP:SPX
by sumastardon
1
S&P 500 Index: SPX Next Buy and Sell Points TodayS&P 500 Index Update Next buy and Sell Points Yesterday the S&P fell 5 points shy of the next target, busting out the next long as support and stops just under the 2715 break line were hit and so turning a 12 point profit into a 2 or 3 point loss. Not so good. It looks as if it will fall further now to retest 2669 and maybe spike as low as 2661 level but should bounce from there at lowest if it is to show stabilty today. if wrong and this 2661 level fails to hold up later it will likely fall away further to 2626-2600 range where it becomes a buy again with stops below 2590. So far this decline remains a standard correction or deviation of 10% - 10% off the top = 2584, the low was 2592 - and it can at worst fall 11% to 2555 but no lower if this is to remain a 'standard' correction. Should this level fail at any point this week it will tip this index into serious bear territory - the decline will then likely extend to 2584, then to 2545 and then to 2488 where would look to buy once more if this kind of price action unfolds from here. Don't think it will so far, but we still need a plan B here, just in case.
SP:SPX
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Next Buy and Sell Points todayBitcoin BTCUSD Update Next Buy and Sell Points We left this overnight waiting for the 4th break lower to hopefully develop a double bottom to show loss of downside momentum and looking for the rally to recommence from there. Interestingly - for some at least - the low was actually also the tiniest of gaps which was created (green arrow) on exit of the last smaller continuation pattern from the night before last - so small...but it got filled precisiely. So the tiniest of gaps was not 'forgotten' - Bitcoin came back and painstakingly filled that gap, and then with the crack in the wall filled, it moved on up again. Where this kind of behaviour is quite normal in a major market index like the Dow (which closes each day to create gaps) it is highly unusual in Bitcoin (it never closes, so why should there ever be a gap?) But the gap is there, small but clearly. And Bitcoin just had to fill it. Since then it has rallied 800 points back to test 8332 resistance line and is once more consolidating. Price action is quite subdued though - it did get bought in London again but not aggressively. So now it's coming back towards the dynamic in a three or four-wave move most likely which can be bought again if not long again already on exit of the upper small parallel for rally back to 8332-8350 and then, once passed, to 8550-8650 range. Bitcoin has to break above 8650 for the next part of the rally to take shape and to follow for higher prices still ahead. On the downside the dynamic running under the lows overnight must hold up to all challenges from here. Any failure will be the first big hint today that upward momentum is waning here- not much buying intent so far...so this is not not particularly strong yet, but also the decline overnight was not a collapse as it could have been - so it's pretty neutral right now but still with an upward bias. However should the rising dynamic under price fail today at any point look for the same type of pattern emerging as yesterday when it lost the parallel then...a rally back to underside of the same line and then, eventually, failure. If we see this type of price action develop it can be shorted with stops above the line. But until then we can look to buy this next next dip to the dynamic with stops under the line.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
7
ETHEREUM: ETHUSD Next Buy and Sell Points TodayETHEREUM ETHUSD Update So maybe you have 5% more ETH for your money than yesterday...and if not ETH is back at the same levels again, but this time challenging resistance from the underside of the dynamic which until yesterday had been good support...so we've seen this pattern countless times before...ETH is vulnerable again here - must find buyers now to push above 848 and hold there for further near term strength today to 892 and then 990.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
Nasdaq 100 Index: NAS100 Next Buy and Sell PointsNadaq 100 Index: NAS100 Next Buy and Sell Points The last 3 declines on Nasadq were 339, 357 and 345 points. This one is now 354 points, so far - par for the course. Nasdaq is now flipping within the boundaries of the two fixed lines of support at 6696 (spiking below here by 20 points to 6676) and resistance at 6786 (spiking above here by 19 points to 6807). It's therefore near term neutral whilst within this range. It has to fall below 6670 to trigger a short back to 6614. This level must hold up throughout this week. Any failure here will trigger a second short back to 6371 minimum and more likely to the 6231-6192 range. On the upside a move and hold above 6810 is needed to trigger a long to 6876-6890 where will look to close out if touched and then maybe reverse short with stops above 6910. So far this is a short, fast decline which matches the size of the last 3 - but the shape of this one doesn't suggest continuation as the others did. It's too sharp, suggesting it may well have further downside to run. Breaking lower to 6614 will become the biggest decline for 2 years - and signal that once broken the Nasdaq will test 6371 before it becomes a buy again from here.
FX:NAS100
by sumastardon
Gold and DXY: Correlation Shows first signs of breakingGold and DXY Recently gold has been very closely correlated with moves in DXY, but up to 3 times more volatile, moving up to 1.5% for each .5% move in DXY - but not today. Gold is showing up on the day to day, only marginally, but until last week changed things it would have most likely been down 1 to 1.5% today on back of DXY strength. Last week's FOMC meeting left markets with the anticipated and forewarned sting in the tail (see TNX forecast) risk/reward ratios are already way out of kilter and and now with a steady rise in interest rates towards 'normalisation' in the 4-6% range - which will likely be faster than markets currently expect if wage inflation starts to push beyond 5% - all mean that gold's not so bearish any more just beacuse the dollar's bullish. Suddenly, there are are other factors in play, helping gold to weather DXY strength. This interplay between gold and DXY, which has been so clear for so long now, has reached it's peak and this trade is over for now, done. Cannot get bearish of gold unless it breaks below the small dynamic support underpinning price now for fall back to 1327-1325 range . And then, irrespective of the dollar from here on in, it has to break 1325 to trigger the next short back to 1306. Looks as if today's price action is the first for while to see gold decouple from DXY - the reason is the hawkish tone coming from the FED - (and subtext is inflationary wage rises, the biggest threat to inflation of all) - gold is being viewed a little differently today than it was last week. It is the start of a new trend. Day 1. Follow the curve. Yellen is/was already behind it, leaving Jerome Powell to clean up after her.
FX:XAUUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Next Buy and Sell Points TodayBitcoin BTCUSD Next Buy and Sell Points Today We left Bitcoin overnight to track the parallels lower to the next downside target at 8300 on Coinbase chart. The low so far is 8310. Close but no cigar. Bitcoin is still under pressure whilst unable to break above the dynamic which has clipped all rally attempts overnight - cannot be bought unless it breaks above this dynamic and regains 8610 and holds there - only if we see this price action develop can we go long for 9093 and a test of the upper larger parallel where will look to close and maybe reverse short again at that point if touched. But until we see that the selling pressure remains. It has to hold now at 8300 or we have another poor day about to unfold. Some day traders will buy here around 8310 but with stops close under 8300 and ready to reverse for small loss if wrong if 8300 is broken now. On the downside the next short kicks in on a break below 8300 . There's minor support at 8150 which may create a little bounce but the next support any significance below 8150 is at 7830 on Coinbase, then 7500 and finally 5656. A break below any of these levels by more than 30 points or so should lead to a test of the next level
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update and next key buy/sell points Bitcoin BTCUSD Next key Buy and Sell Points Bitcoin is again trying to build a base from a new near term low established at 9515 on Bitstamp feed. It's made a right shoulder at 9912 support line since then and is trying hard to rally but finding resistance from the old parallel above it which had acted as support earlier on in this decline. It fell 2500 points or 21%, as standard decline for most major indexes in a major consolidation. Usually, after such a large decline Bitcoin often forms a V bottom as hungry buyers chase it back higher again. This is not the case today. Bitcoin cannot recover from here unless 10262 blue line is retaken and held by the bulls - only then will we look to go long again with stops 50 or so lower looking for 10547-10576 range initially and then the next level at the 10772 line to close out again. Day traders will likely close out at 10547 creating a wave of profit taking, looking to buy back 150 to 200 lower. On downside bears are still selling off that old parallel above price now and Bitcoin remains vulnerable whilst unable to regain 10262 level. To trigger the next short from here we need to see 9912-9900 broken but even then Bitcoin will look for support at 9750 line so this will only offer a quick short scalp in all likellihood. To turn outright bearish again now Bitcoin now has to bust below 9500 in which event it can be shorted again back to 9371 at least and likely to 9210-9200 where will look to reverse if struck with stops 50 or so lower. Short positions yesterday and overnight yielded around 860 points of profit to begin with but the final short from 9750 failed to reach the target and resulted in a 50 point plus loss, so just under 800 points or 8% in scalps. So long as Bitcoin keeps moving up and down we can make points. So long as half the world thinks it could be worth $50,000 and the other thinks it's worth $5 we have a big range to trade within. The biggest range in the history of speculation/investment. We don't need to even believe in Bitcoin or disbelieve either. We just need to follow the signals off the chart and try to follow them as best we can. Usuually the chart signals tend to work quite well with Bitcoin and produce large gains - and when they don't, as with the last short overnight, they produce smallish losses. And if you subtract those losses from the gains made over 3 months of intensive trading (resumed the hunt for Bitcoin in earnest on November 3, 2017) you'll find just shy of 27,000 points have been scalped from Bitcoin in that period. This was only possible because Bitcoin has moved both up and down so much in that time. Why seek to own a Bitcoin if it might only be worth $5 at the end of the day? Because it might also be worth $50k at the end of the day. Who knows, do you? Let others decide its true worth and in the meantime we can trade both sides of the argument until the day when arguing stops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin BTCUSD Sunday Update and buy pointsBitcoin BTCUSD Sunday After breaking lower early on in London on Saturday morning Bitcoin fell to a low at 10800 on Bitfinex feed - was meant to fall to 10750 at least once the break came, so not too good. Even worse, no buy orders were placed anywhere near the lowest levels...on the upside Bitcoin had to break above 11230 to trigger the next long, looking for resistance at 11336 which then needed breaking by the bulls to trigger a rally to 11646 initially and then on up through the resistance levels above it to an upside target at 12950. Having made that break Bitcoin did rally to 11646 level, spent 12 hours consolidating at these higher levels before a second surge of buying interest took it to a high overnight at 12190. Overall, Bitcoin is beginning to stabilise and absorb bad news by defiantly making higher lows with each new horror story to hit the market. These are signs of underlying strength. Institutions and traders are happy to buy the dips. Additionally, there is a bull case for calling Bitcoin up to 15770-15957 range on the back of a massive reverse head and shoulders formation, the neck-line of which was broken through yesterday. This pattern is a little sketchy so only the neck-line has been drawn in here, but the break came at the 11330 level on Bitfinex and has a minimum upside target of 4625 points, so 15955 on Bitfinex...time will tell In the nearer term Bitcoin is unwinding an overbought condition and can come back to 11646 again and potentially to 11500-11400 range at lowest before the rally continues. Look to buy the dip. Bitcoin is beginning to recover - but we still look to trade this monster rather than seeking to own it outright. So long as it keeps moving we can make a lot of points by following the breaks signalled by the charts, whichever exchange you happen to use
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
GBP/CHF Short !?We are just about to break the upward Trend here and price already breaks the rising trendline on friday. Just below current price we can find an interesting s/r zone which needs to break before i consider a short entry because price could easily find support here and start to push up again . Without this s/r zone i would enter this trade depending on the monday open and daily price action but thats not the case so i will just sit on my hands until price reaches this s/r zone . So my plan for this pair is to wait for a break n close below the zone to enter a short trade. No break no Trade .....
Short
by Trueman23
Bitcoin for the Weekend - Key Buy and sell LevelsBitcoin BTCUSD Bitcoin rallied to meet the previous peak prior to news of the lastest hack on Thursday night, precisely on Bitfinex chart, before falling away again. Right now it's neutral as we await the next trading signal to trigger as Bitoin moves towards the apex of the triangle and hopefully reveals its hand so we can trade off that signal when it arrives. If at any point the lower dynamic support line gives way and then 11100 breaks Bitcoin will likely turn negative and trigger a short back to 10750 at least, and if this gives way back to 10497 where it will become a buy again if touched later today. And on upside it has move up above 11230 to trigger a long with stops under 11100 - resistance levels at 11336 and at 11438 then need to be broken and only when we see this will Bitcoin begin to attract more buyers again for move up to 11646 and on up through the restsance levels above it to an upside target at 12950. It's still positive whilst above the big rising dynamic but slow and lacking interest, and hence neutral now. So we await the next signal for the next trade here, as above.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
USD V Bitcoin Old Money v New: FIAT v LAMBO Speed of Change USD V Bitcoin Old Money v New: FIAT v LAMBO Speed of Change This is a fractal of a crypto move that we see almost every day in cryto-land. They see it in olde worlde FIAT time every few...years ! Seriously. But it's exactly the same kind of thing we see every day in the growing universe of 12 or so top coins that many of us trade daily. This is a good fractal, no? 1 year in olde worlde money = 2 days in crypo land, roughly, so roughly 125 times the speed of change with 250 trading days per year in the old world. Imagine going fishing a nd one big fish swims by ...per year. Are we not lucky?! The trading opportunities of a lifetime swim by almost every day. All we have to do is catch them. And if we miss one there's no great need for FOMO. there's another coming very soon. All we need is movement. Just so long as we get it we have trades and opportunities aplenty. Or you can take it real easy - and drive a Fiat currency instead. Good to resume service.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin BTCUSD Update and key levels todayBitcoin Update The break above the flag after far East opened had just enough power to take it back to the previous high of the day but not enough to break higher still - it really had to achieve this in the first hour after the break above the upper parallel of the continuation pattern - but only double topped before falling back once more to the break-out level before rallying one last time to a new high for the new day before getting sold off as London opened (hight at 08.30GMT). That pin bar created in the process means there is some serious near term selling power overhead. If you have raised/trailed your stops as each blue line is regained by the bulls (to just a few points under the line once broken above) then only about 200 points more profit have been locked in*. Those that got long when 14002 was broken above and held for the second time - with a technically near-perfect restest from above coming soon after (see chart) - have been rewarded with an 1800 point gain, so far, if not stopped out higher still. But it's a heart-breaker if you followed advice to raise stops to 13675 - the low was 28 points lower - turning a really good trade bad for those who followed it. Worse than being wrong, the most painful of all trades are those that are right but with wrong stops. The lesson for 2018 is to know that stops need widening now from 50 to 100 points in past to 100 minimum and 200 to 300 maximum -because price has more than doubled in the interim period. So if still long here we need to raise stops to just under the 14539 blue support line. Bitcoin should reach a minimum upside target at 16887 as a consequence of the reverse head and shoulders but to stay good in the very near term it must now continue to hold up at 14539 at lowest during the course of today - any failure to do so will trigger a short back to 14010 with a stop 100 lower if we see it. On Upside, The first minor resistance is here, at 14900 and Bitcoin has to push through here to stay positive now in near term. It's likely then to move sideways to up to retest 15077-15130 range and then to consolidate again before moving higher still, with each blue line being the likeliest points at which to expect near term resistance/consolidation to occur. So we stay long, looking to increase positions on a break above 15500 for further strength up to 16506 . Bitcoin only turns negative from here if 14530 gives way - only then do we enter into short positons again, looking for retest of 14010, where we would look to reverse back to long again with stops 120 below, at 13880 . *For newer traders any break above an upper flag parallel must have enough power to carry it above the last high (top of flag-pole to immediate left on chart) and should do it within the next hour or so of the break-out occurring - some flag break-outs only have the power to double top and some are full of intent, as we saw with the first flag breakout from the 13770 level yesterday. So, for future reference: watch the break-out in that first hour after it happens - if it stumbles and creates a little pin bar on 15 or 30 minute chart right around the last high it's a good clue that buying power is waning here - this is when Chart V Heart problems can arise - you want to stay long but the chart is saying it's topping out and losing upside momentum - you must follow the chart at that point, especially if the next candle starts red from the outset and cannot make it above the last candle. It's VITAL that you study breaks - they are our life-blood, the things we need to open new trades. Get a good understanding of breaks and failed breaks and you will be 80% of the way to making good returns on trades and not letting profits slip away because your heart ruled your head and the chart therefore got ignored. Overcoming natural human emotion and managing stops are our 2 biggest challenges as traders - not identifying patterns and trades.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2