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Bitcoin BTCUST 2018 Infinity and BeyondBitcoin BTCUSD 2018 Well the last day of trading Bitcoin in 2107 was a difficult one. We managed to bag 450 or points from 13000 to 13460 early on (and day traders another 300-450 trading the range from 13000 to 13150, also earlier in London session) but then lost the plot as the day wore on with two poor trades centered around the 14000 level which lost 50-150 points each time. So it wasn't a grand-stand finish to the year, unfortunately, and on a bad day we ended up just 150 points or so ahead (maybe 450 or so if day trading). But in 60 or so days of fairly intense mining we have extracted over 19,000 points from Bitcoin if you go back and total the trades. So it took about 2 months to buy Bitcoin outright and still have some change left over. No one can say what 2108 holds in store. But just so long as the great mine in the sky remains open for business we have to work it. There may never be an opprtunity like this again in our lifetimes...how often does mankind attempt to put a value on Ether? Never. Bitcoin has a value of somewhere between $5 and $50,000. That's all we can say. But that is one hell of a range to play inside...a range we are basically making up as we go along. That creates a wonderful, big space for traders to play within. So long as Bitcoin keeps moving fast we should be able to make some good returns again this year coming. And if we only average a paltry 200 or so point return each day as yesterday, that translates into 1400 points per week and will therefore take just 10 weeks for us to own Bitcoin outright through traded profits. And that in turn means we buy Bitcoin 5 times over in a year. So by working this mine systematically and intensely and by looking to trade patterns and not price, we should be able to make good returns for as long as it stays open to us. Please Pay this Forward These commentaries on the life and times of Bitcoin began in earnest 60 days ago - mostly because seeing some of the forecasts by Tradingview's 'top' writers covering Bitcoin and how vague and confusing and ultimately unhelpful they can be just twanged my vibes so strongly that I had to do something about it. It began as an experiment in human nature - am old, pretty much retired but still totally addicted to charts, especially in 'bubble' type situations because the chart is just a temperature gauge showing how 'hot' people feel in aggregate about product 'X'. It is human nature in the raw, displayed on screen. People make patterns. And people don't change. Each generation tends to think it's smarter than the one that went before it - their cars are faster, safer, they'll be driving themselves soon; their toys are way cooler - pretty much everything except music and movies is just ...better. So the confidence of each new generation is understandable to an extent. But the truth is that human nature itself never changes. We react in exactly the same way to fear and greed as we always did. Deep down, under the surface absolutely nothing has changed. We're human, is ALL. So we track and trade the recognisable patterns that humans make across the chart - the same patterns humans always tend to make across the ages - whether that's the patterns made in 1927-1933 at the end of the 'roaring' Twenties or the patterns made by the Tokyo bubble exactly 60 years later (1987-1993) or the patterns made by Nasdaq from 1997-2003 or the patterns made now by Bitcoin (2017-2023?) ...they are all the same. With one big difference: time. We know Bitcoin moves something between 60 and 100 tmes faster than pretty much any speculative instrument ever devised by man so far in all history. What happens on the SandP over weeks is displayed here in hours. It means that there are roughly 60 to 100 times more opportunities to open trades in Bitcoin than there are to open trades on SandP, obviously. One is just a fractal of the other. All we have do is watch for patterns to develop, identify them, and trade them.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
UK100: FTSE100: Short and longer term Forecasts for 2108 FTSE 100 Index UK100 Short and Longer term Forecast for 2018 Fantastic straight-line break-out finally achieved by FTSE 100. Bull markets climb walls of fear. That wall is Brexit. FTSE keeps climbing and pays the nay-sayers no heed. They are the most slow-witted fools remaining. But never forget, the market needs mugs. The 80% losers pay for the 20% winners' dinners, most days. That's just the way the numbers fall. The breakout has been one long green candle - but it's only got a little more upside to 7818 and/or to test the upper parallel that contains the rally come Tuesday opening. Look to close out longs into the final move upwards - and if the high at 7704 is not broken above early on - or price flips back to the lower parallel at arounnd 7634 and then goes on to double top at 7704, then again, look to close at least half long positions if you see price stick at 7704 or just under on this kind of price action. FTSE should then fall back to 7635 at least, and ideally back to the the big break-out levels at 7597-7580 at absolute lowest before it rallies hard once more, likely by this stage to move up through 7703 and 7818 to the next important resistance potential at 8348 over the more medium term (first 6 to 8 weeks of new year, roughly) Longer term views on both FTSE and SandP remain unchanged: Both indexes continue to climb their own different walls of fear (Brexit and Trump). Both love the outcomes. Paradigm shifts. Complete game-changers, both events. After 14 to 16 years of sideways to down markets we have begun the greatest secular bull run that many younger investors will have ever experienced. Both markets are expected to rise at least 4 times and potentially 6 times from start 2016 prices over the coming 14 years or so. Stay long if a long time holder and pay this forecast no heed whatsoever. This is for day traders or for those wishing to get long here ready for an excellent 2018 in store - for this market in particular. Super Long Term SandP secular analysis:
FX:UK100Long
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Still trying to make its escape even nowBitcoin: BTCUSD The big lower parallel came to Bitcoin's rescue and gave as good reason as any to close out shorts from here...but it didn't quite hit the line perfectly, which was then lying at 12028 - the low of the day was in fact 12050 - so quite close, 22 out, but no cigar. If you managed to get out and switch long close to the lows you therefore did really well. We were then looking to switch long to 12480 for about 400 points - but should have stayed much longer (in hindsight) as Bitcoin went on to rise by another 700 points or so. Not good. But OK in tricky conditions. Right now Bitcoin is busy hammering out a little flag with 2 strikes on the lower line. If this can hold up and not revisit the lower parallel now Bitcoin will stand a chance of another temporary escape - but to do so it will have to break above 12987. Only then would it worth risking a long for 500 points to 13480. On the downside the lower small parallel of the putative flag formation has to hold up at all costs now to stop Bitcoin falling away to 12301 -12255. If this then fails it will fall at least back to the low at 12050 and more likely lower still to 11923 and to the big lowest parallel at any selling extreme. At all costs the lower big parallel must continue to hold this decline or it will go into a bigger tailspin. And should it fail and then 11090 fail to hold at any point over the weekend it will tip Bitcoin further into very negative territory, forcing price lower still, to 10486 to start with and then, once this fails back to 8342.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin BTCUSD Happy Bitmas to You and YoursBitcoin BTCUSD. Christmas Day What kind of sad tw@t would be writing on Bitcoin today? Hi there. So how's Bitcoin behaving over Christmas? It rallies all morning in Europe and then at 12.45 GMT as everyone goes to lunch and buyers dry up it falls 1200 points to the lower line of what is now a developing continuation pattern, and, as usual tracking parallels. Jeez. If we'd known that was going to happen that could've paid for lunch a few times over. Maybe next year now we know... So Bitcoin swings across the globe into the hands of the USA for a few hours - who don't look too interested either way, but Bitcoin does top out at 1.30 EST - do you guys eat a little later than UK on Christmas day ? Anyway, now I figure most will have finished, as Bitcoin has started to rally again....so next Christmas day maybe we have an idea of how this behaves...no one around and it goes down. Amazing. Who'd have thought? Looks like it will grind higher but still be subject to fairly sharp drops - just don't want to be buying this high and then getting whipped out in zero volume conditions - so can only think of buying if the lower parallel is tested with a stop 50 or so under the line - but when Bitcoin skips across the Pacific to land in the far East volume should start to rise, and they are more likely to be buyers than sellers...but the chart will confirm - or deny - this for us...can get pushed up to 14648 but not likely to get much further without Eastern buyers and some volume...if you see this some time around the open or within an hour at most and 14648 is broken through it can be followed for 800 points or so up to 15509. It should come off again from here, if not from 15814 later on though. On downside there is near term minor support here, at 13982 with stronger support at 13717-13679, where the lower parallel lies now - Bitcoin must hold up off this line on all retests to avoid falling back into negative territory, most likely driving price back to the left hand structure that began this move at 12617 -12500 with smaller counter rallies most likely off the blue support lines at 13456 and 13086. Any break below 12500 would trigger another good short back to 11391-11165 range.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
3
Golden Cashening Watch BTG BCH BTCTHIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE FOR EVERY TRADE AND INVESTMENT YOU MAKE I am a holder of bchusd and btgusd I have jettisoned all my btc... I chuckle when I see the 'camps' of bch (minority) versus btc (majority) versus btg (tumbleweed) holders Also at day and swing traders and various parties with skin in the game pontificating and waxing lyrical And waning lyrical!!! What will be will be... And whilst I'm not a chartist, the charts to me are telling all... Forget about the FUD and your greed... Just look at the 3 month charts... As per O'Neil, the bchusd and btgusd charts are forming massive cup and handles surely?!? As such I think we have around 2 weeks before the handle finished forming... Timed perfectly to coincide with CME futures on btc and other news?!? Timed perfectly to coincided with btc 20k territory?!? Let's see THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE FOR EVERY TRADE AND INVESTMENT YOU MAKE CUPS AND HANDLES AS PER O'NEIL AND stockcharts.com Cup: “U” shaped CHECK Cup should usually retrace 1/3 or less of the previous advance (could retrace upto half though) CHECK Handle: final consolidation/retracement; up to 1/3 of the cup's advance, but usually not more; wait for the break above the cup rim resistance line, with volume Timing: Our cup took only a few weeks to form, which is a little quick actually; handle is usually 1-4 weeks. So chill people Target: measure the distance from the right peak of the cup to the bottom of the cup. THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE FOR EVERY TRADE AND INVESTMENT YOU MAKE
B
by Doc-al-Citadel
Bitcoin BTCUSD Watch out for potential Head and Shoulders hereBitcoin BTCUSD Update If you got long again at the ridiculous hour of 11.30 pm est you're hard working and deserve your 400 points reward. Weirdly the crypto chat room was quite quiet with a guy from London waiting for the BCH burst to top out so he could bail out and fade the consolidation. London's finally catching on. 2018 will be so fascinating and fast moving. It's good for competition, good for spreads and good for us therefore, in time. Now, finally people are taking BTC very seriously. So many Bitcoin jobs to be created now. How long for though? No one can answer that one for us but if anyone will know in advance it will be GS. And the chart. Until that day comes we ride this like nothing has ever been ridden before...in the entire history of speculation. Ever. We are alive for it. Wow Right now Bitcoin is trying to track huigher but is, weirdly, being contrained on the upside by an old parallel from way back in the mists of time (hell, it's 14 days old - that's 2 years in FB time!) - and yet it's clearly back in play once more, stopping the rallies. Another nice day in prospect for day traders but not much for others right now. It's trying to hold a newly forming little parallel off yesterday's lows and needs to keep holding up there or we have a danger of a head and shoulders forming here off the top, with a neckline at 15809 and a minimum downside target at 14210 if it gets broken. Time will tell but right now this is not a very strong pattern, except for day traders. Unless you look to short if head and shoulders gets completed later on, as above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
2
Gold XAUUSD and Dollar Index DXY UpdateGOLD and DXY Gold and Dollar Index Update DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50 range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside, and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too. On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below 92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart. Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest. At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not already given) and get long USDEUR.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
BCHUSD Continuation pattern and key break/buy pointsBCHUSD Update Near Term and Break Points Near Term BCH ran out of upside momentum, double topping at 1461 though this level was actually briefly exceeded, snapping at any bear stops just above it before fading, and showing first quite big red bull engulfing candle off the high of the day...mild rejection, not hot but not cold either, except in very near term - what looks like a continuation pattern is now being hammered out and will likely have further to run yet...3 strikes on the lower parallel shows it's not 'hot' and has to unwind some more, likely recoiling from 1413 - when tested (and almost certainly from the two lines of dynamic resistance waiting just above price to clip any nascent rally in the bud at 1425 now) ...looks like it's a sell one more time from 1413-1426 range and a reverse long at 1351 ideally, or off the lower smallest parallel that this little continuation pattern is running in now. Break Points An eventual break above the upper smallest parallel that holds back price today should be followed (usual drill on breakouts) for a rally to 1620-1638 minimum and 1766 maximum in near term On downside: A break below 1347 would tip BCH from neutral to negative in the near term triggering a short back to 1286 and if this was to fail to 1245.
B
by sumastardon
2
CFI 7mTo Infinity and beyond. BK all day!!!!! Thank you. I got a 1 on 1 on with you @ Wednesday 3pm. Cant wait... Strangely enough, that happens to be exactly the same time that Indahash starts phase 2 of their ICO .. (Hmmmm...synchronicity?>>>> "The charts make the news"-BK I'm pretty new to charting but its awe-inspiring how strong their effect really is. These are companies with employees, and customers, yet they're subject to laws they are not even aware exist. On a weird note... Imagine if human beings have charts? What do you think would symbolizes moving averages in our lives so that when their paths cross, we start to grow? Peace and Love, 9 Lives
C
by AmreElsayed
Dash/Dollar: DASHUSD Entry levels/Strategy ReviewDash/Dollar DASHUSD Strategies Reviewed Time Always Tells The 2 possible entry strategies yesterday gave one great result and for the other the jury is still out. You'll be familiar with the story about the old bull and his boy out on the range: the young bull sees a herd a beautiful looking cows in the valley below and says: Dad, look at those babes...that one looks like Adriana Lima! Let's get down there and...you know the rest. That was Dash yesterday - don't chase, it might just come to you and eat right out of your hand. Sure enough some smart traders stuck a few lazy orders down at 302 (entry was actually placed just above the break level/previous spike low on Thursday at 302.8 but it looks to have come down to 300 low) - and then ripped 57 points or 20% in a near straight line in less than 6 hours...makes Bitcoin look quite tame at the moment. That was the good choice, the older, calmer way to go. The other choice was follow the break-out above new structure at around current prices now, 338-342. Then we have to keep an eye on price action to see how it behaves after the breakout, obviously. And here, it has to be said that follow through is lame, so far. We're in a weekend too. We can see those two spikes that have recently formed, showing quite strong rejection from just under 360, so am concerned here that if it breaks back down below 335 now, it will likely fall away on lack of buying interest to 318 at least and quite possibly it can spike down to 302 again before it rallies...this break-out has failed, so far. That's what the chart is saying, and Dash needs buyers now to push it higher still, otherwise it will start to fall away. So need to put a tight stop under this, if long and day-trading, at 328. If hit, then put a buy order in at 305 with stop just under 296 and see if it gets filled. Longer term The sloping head and shoulders pattern here is similar to the one on Facebook, in this case with a minimum upside target at 453, with the most likely points of resistance on the way marked on the chart. It's good medium term. But be careful of whipsaw between 302 real support and 340 reistance in the very near term. It's a good tradeable 10% range for day- traders once 330 gives way...that's where they're most likely to step in on short side, so use stops, looking to get long again from lower down if 330 gives way. Moral of this dumb story: sometimes it pays to be cool and calculating and sometimes it also pays to follow the herd and play momentum breaks. But a momentum break needs careful watching over on the day following the break: did volume spike on the break out? Has it had follow-through? Are there any scary pin bars forming showing quite strong rejection at higher levels...? You knew all this anyway. Don't trade on hope. Trade on what the chart tells you. If you can manage to master this Zen-like state, you are free. It's not you. It's the chart.
BITTREX:DASHUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update and Buy Points Bitcoin: BTCUSD Wednesday Update and Buy Points Is there an X man who doesn't need to sleep? That's what we need to be to keep on top of Bitcoin. Still feisty, still full of fight, just when it looks like it might be settling down a little it snaps back again. Tried shorting from 8060, looking for 7800 before reversing back long again - just before spotting the acute parallels that Bitcoin was now trapped beteeen. Too late! Parallels mean continuation, even if as steep as these. The last update from midnight GMT mentioned this point and that breaking back above the upper parallel would mean that Bitcoin was turning bullish again, and then had to grab some sleep. If you were brave enough to then go long again on the break and retest of the upper parallel, well done, especially if you kept your nerve during the ensuing 3 hours of trade as Bitcoin came back to a spike low at 8050 before rallying. That was a tough 3 hours for day traders looking at price action in the aftermath. Notice how the parallels that contained the move down saw just 2 strikes on the lower parallel? It's been mentioned before but bears repeating: two strikes on a lower parallel is a sign of real impending strength to come...but it was too late in UK by then to stay with it. Sorry for that. Swing traders and long-pull holders with stops left low under 7700 as advised are unscathed. Hoping we can raise stops here soon, but need to leave them quite low for now and keep them out of harm's way. So now the next challenge is find the next entry point for day traders not already long again on the break above the upper parallel - it was so tricky at that point there's no point in beating ourselves up about missing it...fixed support lines proved to be useless for the second time too - the last low also - we just need to understand the last move for what it was and move on to the next trade... Right now Bitcoin has regained the high line at 8245 and is using it as support, creating a small flag. Need to watch and wait awhile and see what shape Bitcoin makes next. Overall it's still very positive and once this battle for consolidation at the highs has been won bitcoin is likley to surge much higher still. So am not looking to try shorting from here though it looks quite tempting. Prefer to look for an entry to get long again. We may get a chance from lower down later if 8220 gives way to sellers, otherwise on exit above the upper parallel of this tiny flag from today's highs with stop under 8210. More as the move develops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
4
CRB Index: TRJEFFCRB Useful Back-up for Gold and Oil tradersCRB Index Commodities Index: TRJEFFCRB The CRB index - Back-up Confirmation for Gold and Oil Trades. It's useful to know which way the greater wind blows before setting sail. This wind is with the bulls and has been off and on since June. It's making a nice trend of its own, grinding away each bear in its path until 195.62 is reached - up about 2.5% from here. Do not consider shorting gold, oil, silver or copper aggressively until 195.62 is reached on this index, except near term scalping raids which will carry wiith them all the risks associated with trading against a trend. Even the deftest of scalpers will need their A game to make much from shorting, and will likely have to move fast to bag any profits. Any bears with a medium term view are going to get crushed. Can therefore only turn aggressively bearish of Oil once the lower parallel channelling this impulse wave is broken on downside. Then you know the greater wind is turning and it's finally time to change tack and start selling rallies again. This index has a look of latent strength behind it - 195.62 will not hold it back for long. Once passed it will rally another 5 points or a firther 2.5% to 203.6. Then look for the wind to change and at least a 2.5% fall back to 195.6 again. Get this medium to longer term idea of push and pull and you can make some very good returns. Good trading to the 3 wise men who bother to read such arcane research. You will do well. Never so sure about the rest though...
TVC:TRJEFFCRBLong
by sumastardon