Lower Lows & Lower Highs!!In a sell since 1.0035 as I'm holding this as I want to see this pair go down to around .96500-95500 as we could be seeing a MAJOR MOVE DOWN soon. This is a prefect setup as its been aligned great in Andrew Pitchfork as shown here.
USDCHF is currently closed end of the week @ .99000 area which thats currently a support level we need to break through..
We could possibly see a retest to the top of the channel of the pitchfork .9950 area which i may enter an entry for a sell TP .98800
Keep an eye out for this pair as there is money to be made!!!!!
Andrew's Pitchfork
Goldman Sachs Anti Set UPGS seems to be attracting demand recently. The trend down is losing momentum and it might just be the time to enter an anti set up here for a modest 1.5-2R target. Though sellers can enter this market any time, it seems more probable that bulls will take this higher to the Warning Line.
Gold Looking Up Gold broke its trading range to the downside but bears are seemingly not capable of taking it lower. Taking long positions at this stage is justified with tight stops under recent low of 1282 . The R:R could be better on this trade but that's one of the drawbacks when traders wait for a breakout of the trading range as a confirmation to enter the market. There are better odds of winning but R:R is compromised.
USOIL Bears Fail Yet AgainThere's a constant inflow of demand for USOIL. Dips are being bought by trend continuation players without hesitation and the overextended state of this market is not scaring bulls away. Given the HHs and HLs , it seems reasonable to buy around 7150 with tight stops under recent lows around 7120 . Lower probability set up with decent R:R.
APPLE Looking For A PullbackApple went for the measured move after extended pullback consolidation. Achieving measured moves is usually followed by another round of pullback consolidation . Though the trend is up, short sellers can also make money as the price action shows a broad channel up. Though short selling in uptrends is a risky business, it seems reasonable to sell short around closing price with stops slightly higher than the measured move's high and look for 2R-3R targets . Probability is lower but R:R is decent - worth a try.
Weekly Perspective On BTCUSDA bigger picture on BTCUSD provides better understanding of price action and long-term direction . The third of highest selling price is clearly attracting demand and supporting price . The pair is forming a complex pullback pattern with 1/3 of the highest selling price as the bottom. This triangle's ABCD legs are formed already and currently the E leg down can easily print a low around $7000. Buying those areas with stops below $6200 for 2R-3R targets is a lower probability but good R:R trade set up. Worth a try.
Gold Trading Range Low BuyGold is trading within a trading range these last couple of weeks. Currently sitting at the bottom of its trading range . A long trade here is justified in terms of past performance and market inertia factor . Stops are below breakout level and t argets are double the risk . Worth a try.
A Potential Pullback Long OpportunityUSOIL is going through an extended consolidation phase where some decent opportunities for both buyers and sellers are present. I expect aggressive sellers will take this down to 7056 where I am looking to initiate a pullback long position with stops below recent low of 7024 and targets around 7097 and 7154. This is 2R trade with lower probability than 60/40.
ADA/BTC (Cardano) Topping W3, W4 pullback then W5 up!ADA/BTC (Cardano) 05/03/18, 1:10 p.m. EST, by Michael Mansfield for CyptoPlayhouse
Hi trader friends! I see that the Cardano (ADA) token is topping in a Wave (V) of a larger Wave 3, in Elliott Wave terms. Since we also see 5 waves up on the 4-hour chart since the April 25th low, the current Wave 3 top should be in! If not today, the remotely possibly tomorrow.
Since ADABTC wave top is likely in place, Cardano should now begin a Wave 4 pullback lasting 5-12 days. This will likely be followed by a Wave 5 up to around 0.000050 area to finish this entire 1-5 bullish wave sequence from the March 18th low of 0.00001666, which happened to be a bullish Hammer candle formation. Not a bad move, Cardano!
After this entire larger 1-5 Elliott Wave up pattern is completed, we would likely see a larger degree ABC correction to this upcoming Wave 4 retracement area once again. Then, repeat 1-5 Waves up on a larger degree, IF this analysis is correct. This is a relatively high confidence forecast.
IDEAS:
You might look to short for 3-5 price bars down, then wait for the low to be confirmed on whatever time-frame you trade with hopefully a clean buy setup reversal bar up to reverse to long buy position around the suggested Wave 4 low target area shown on the chart.
RATIONALE:
Waning momentum on TSI and MASIC.
Bearish divergence & MASIC turned down!
Five waves up on this topping Wave (V) of larger Wave 3, likely at or near the Mansfield modified Andrews 0.618 line.
Volume accelerated on Wave (iii) of 3, as it should, with Wave (v) of 3 showing less volume, as would be expected, which provides excellent conditions for text book Wave 4 pullback/retracement.
Bearish reversal candlestick price bar is forming.
GANN FAN line is also providing resistance in this area
---------------
The forthcoming retracement should find its way to the prior Wave (iv) area,
which, is where the Wolf Wave support line is.
TRADER TIP: A bullish Wolf Wave support price target line is
drawn from the Wave (i) high to the Wave (iv) low (opposite for a bearish Wolf Wave resistance price target line). In either case, these are supposedly minimum price expectations. Test this out for yourself. Use prudently along with other supporting/confirming techniques.
CYCLES: As with a lot of the newer tokens, there is not much data from which to extract cycles from. These two cycles are the best current estimate, but not to trade off of yet.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Michael Mansfield CIO
BTC Pitchfork Analysis: Attractive short-term buy area Price has greatly respected this pitchfork, and it has served as a useful guide. Here we see that the .5 - .618 area has served as a strong support and resistance zone in the past. As of writing, the 7,400 - 7,500$ area falls in this range and is where price becomes more likely to bounce and test old highs. In my opinion, target points from longs taken in this area should be extremely conservative, with 7,800$ serving as a maximum with profits taken along the way. Although a long becomes attractive in this price area, stop placement is tricky. Previous price action around the .5 - .618 area suggests that stops just below the .5 line are likely to be triggered with price only to reverse and test the .618 area, at the very least. The next attractive area to place a stop is beneath the line-of-best fit ( The red solid line on the chart; calculated via linear regression starting from the all-time-high) or the dotted trend line. However, placing a stop loss beneath these areas reduces the reward-to-risk ratio to unacceptable levels (less than 2:1). Price becomes more likely to bounce and test old levels as price approaches the line-of-best-fit and at the dotted trend line. Although the red circled area on the graph above highlights the first safe area to go long, it might be wise to cost average in. The long could be split up into three buys: At the .5 - .618 area of the pitchfork, the regression line from the all-time-high, and the dotted trend line. A reversal from the line-of-best fit or the trend line would likely allow price to rise to a break even point, as price decreases past this point without retests of prior levels is unlikely.
:Note that the line-of-best fit on the chart above is dynamic and changes with time. You will have to use the regression tool in tradingview to be sure of where it currently resides.
Bitcoin-What Next?Good Evening! This is an analysis of COINBASE:BTCUSD . We're using a four hour chart, 50 EMA, 200 EMA, Fib Channel, MACD, Andrew's Pitchfork, trend-lines, H&S Patterns, and just a couple of flags ;)
Let's back up to late-January where we started to form the first shoulder in the inverse H&S pattern. We finished that in early-March. Keep this in the back of your head, this pattern was never confirmed nor denied so could still validate!!
In early-March we began our series of flag patterns. They're coming in at about a 50% accuracy, trading off validation each time. In other words, the first flag beginning in early-March succeeded, the second failed, third succeeded, fourth failed. I say the second bear flag between 3/13-18 failed because it never reached as low as it was supposed to given the large flag pole. Right now we're in a bear flag that began around 2AM Mountain Time US. If it were to follow the pass/fail pattern it would fail, but that's idiotic logic! I believe it will fail, but not for that reason.
Right now we're trading at the 50 EMA (green). After a horrible failure to retest the 200 EMA, we're now retesting the 50 EMA. Should we hit 8300 and breakout of the bear flag, we'll be breaking down of the 50 EMA after our recovery Monday. That could send us to retest the .38 or even .23 retracement levels.
We're trading in the lower sector of the Andrew's pitchfork formed using the low of 2/5, high of 2/20 and low of 3/18. We're trading on-trend in this lower sector, having not tested the support or resistance once. This is admittedly not my favorite tool, because we're always trading at some support/resistance.
The MACD is down-trending since a crossover 2AM Mountain Time US. We have significant sell volume, but the trend-lines are getting flatter so could cross soon and send us back up for a time.
I'm bear, what turns me bull? For me to go long again I want to see us breakout of the resistance of our current downtrend (deep red). What will secure my confidence? IF we breakout of the green trend-line AND the resistance for the Andrew's pitchfork.
This is an educational analysis of COINBASE:BTCUSD brought to you by Noah Holtgraves, Economic Consultant. This is intended for educational purposes only and should not be used as advice to trade. No liabilities are held on behalf of Noah Holtgraves for result in trades from intentionally following this analysis.
Like and Follow!!!
EEM Breakout StrategyGood Evening! This is a brief analysis for EEM -0.31% using a 4 hour chart! Keeping it simple, we're sitting nicely in the middle of our traditional long term support and resistance. The light-green trend-line verifies that. I used an Andrew's pitchfork created with the high of 2011 and low of 2016. It's a nice long term trend analysis. We're retesting the middle support of the pitchfork a lot recently, and with how much we breakout, it's proving to not be as useful an indicator right now. still, we're sitting mostly in the pitchfork's middle S&R in 2018, so I'm optimistic we'll have a lot more harder tests of the support line. The 200 EMA has been above the 50 EMA for over a month now, but they're getting closer and could help signal that breakout. We have positive volume for the most part and the MACD is still upwardly transected, though it's path is a little flatter now. It's been a little shaky coming off our high in mid-January, but the bulls are back at it and hey they even made a flag. :) We'll be in this flag for a little while, I'll give it 20 days at the verrrrry most for us to hit breakout at $50. We'll hit $52 within 2 months and probably retest that level a few times before breaking out and hitting $53 by mid-May. It will be bloody and we're certain to retest $50 a lot before breaking out.
This has been an educational only analysis by nmholtgraves!
Potential large BTC move in the next couple of weeks
Hey guys, as explained in the video, I feel there's great potential for a large BTC move within the next couple of weeks. I miss-read the chart at the end owing to the pressure of time, the correct support levels I highlighted were 4300 and 5500.
As always, ideas and feedback are welcome.
Don't be too hopeful for anything! Hey guys, this is my drawing for Bitcoin. Since I am not really an expert in crypto, my analysis is purely based on using technical without really reading or analyzing fundamental about BTCUSD.
I think this area is kind of 50-50 for trading, so if you already bought BTCUSD at 6k, take 70 - 80% of your profit out of the trade. Just leave 15-20% with stoploss at 7800 to protect your equity.
Bitcoin may go up to 13k-14k to give traders hope, then drops to 5k area. (or 6k is lowest low for the next few months)
Again, as always, trust your analysis and protect your investment. Don't listen to others too much!
Note: Please be advised that this is only my idea, so you are responsible for any losses yourself.