#STXRES #JSE - Resources bouncing off Long term levelsResource are very likely the place to be over the medium term. Satrix Resources which is a basket of the biggest resource stocks on the JSE is bouncing off a massive level of previous long term support which has now become support (Change of Polarity). This is a great area to accumulate for the long term in my opinion. Will be happy to review after a few months but for now 3x hold of support shows the bulls mean business.
Constituents below:
ibb.co
Angloamerican
The Money Multiplier of TradingThere is one tool with trading, which you can accelerate your portfolio, compared to with investing.
I’m talking about Gearing (or leverage).
To wrap our head around this concept, here’s a more relatable life example.
When you buy a house for R1,000,000, it is very similar to trading derivatives. Initially, the homeowner most probably won’t have the full R1,000,000 to buy the house with just one purchase.
Instead, they’ll sign a bond agreement, make a 10% deposit (R100,000), borrow the rest from the bank and be exposed to the full purchase price of the home. This is a similar concept for when you trade with gearing.
Gearing is a tool which allows you to pay a small amount of money (deposit) in order to gain control and be exposed to a larger sum of money.
You’ll simply buy a contract of the underlying share, use borrowed money to trade with and be exposed to the full share’s value.
Let’s simplify this with a more relatable life example:
How gearing works with CFDs
Let’s say you want to buy 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd at R50 per share as you believe the share price is going to go up to R60 in the next three months. You’ll need to pay the entire R50,000 to own the full value of the 1,000 shares (R50 X 1,000 shares).
In three months’ time, if the share price hits R60 you’ll then be exposed to R60,000 (1,000 shares X R60 per share).
Note: I’ve excluded trading costs for simplicity purposes throughout this section
If you sold all your shares, you’ll be up R10,000 profit (R60,000 – R50,000). The problem is you had to pay the full R50,000 to be exposed to those 1,000 shares.
When you trade a geared instrument like CFDs, you won’t ever have to worry about paying the full value of a share again.
A CFD is an unlisted over-the-counter financial derivative contract between two parties to exchange the price difference of the opening and closing price of the underlying asset.
Let’s break that down into an easy-to-understand definition.
A CFD (Contract For Difference) is an
Unlisted (You don’t trade through an exchange)
Over The Counter (Via a private dealer or market maker)
Financial derivative contract (Value from the underlying market)
Between two parties (The buyer and seller) to
Exchange the
Price difference of the opening and closing price of the
Underlying asset (Instrument the CFD price is based on)
Let’s use an example of a company called Jimbo’s Group Ltd, who offers the function to trade CFDs.
The initial margin (deposit) requirement is 10% of the share’s value. This means, you’ll pay R5.00 per CFD instead of R50, and you’ll be exposed to the full value of the share.
To calculate the gearing (or leverage ratio) you’ll simply divide what you’ll be exposed to over the initial margin deposit.
Here’s the gearing calculation on a per CFD basis:
Gearing
= (Exposure per share ÷ Initial deposit per CFD)
= (R50 per share ÷ R5.00 per CFD)
= 10 times gearing
This means two things…
#1. For every one Jimbo’s Group Ltd CFD you buy for R5.00 per CFD, you’ll be exposed to 10 times more (the full value of the share).
#2. For every one cent the share rises or falls, you’ll gain or lose 10 cents.
To have the exposure of the full 1,000 shares of Jimbo’s Group Ltd, you’ll simply need to buy 1,000 CFDs. This will require a deposit of R5,000 (1,000 CFDs X R5.00 per CFD).
With a 10% margin deposit (R5,000), you’d have the exact same exposure as you’d have with a conventional R50,000 shares’ investment.
Here is the calculation you can use to work out the exposure of the trade.
Overall trade exposure
= (Total initial margin X Gearing)
= (R5,000 X 10 times)
= R50,000
With an initial deposit of R5,000 and with a gearing of 10 times, you’ll be exposed to the full R50,000 worth of shares.
In three months’ if the share price reaches R60, your new overall trade exposure will be R60,000 worth of shares (1,000 shares X R60 per share). If you sold all of your positions, you’d bank a R10,000 gain (R60,000 – R50,000).
But remember, you only deposited R5,000 into your trade and not the full R50,000. This is the beauty of trading geared derivative instruments.
Hope that helps for those who don't really grasp Gearing...
Trade well, live free.
Timon
MATI Trader
AGL UpswingJSE:AGL seems to be making an upswing at the moment. It recently formed a higher low and now with the EMAs crossing which was preceded by signals from the Stochastic as well as the MACD - I think we could see the upward momentum continue possibly all the way up to the resistance at around the 63500 area.
Analysis on JSE:ANGThis is an analysis on AngloGold Ashanti. From an inflation point of view I think this is a good stock to invest in as gold is also now turning the trend more upward, ANG could also have a big swing up.
Disclaimer: This is just my opinion on the stock. Tread carefully and best of luck to all the other investors out there!
AMS - EMA crossing could be signaling a shortThe EMA's on JSE:AMS have finally crossed downwards after the stochastic and MACD have been showing downward momentum for some time. It might struggle a bit at the 200000 level, but if it breaks through that, I think we could potentially see it go to around the 180000 support level.
Inverted Head & Shoulders BreakoutJSE:AGL has broken through the neckline of an inverted Head & Shoulders pattern and if it plays out, we could be looking at a nice target around the 60 000 level. I will proceed with caution, however, as the neckline is at a very strong level of resistance and may struggle to convincingly break through.
ANGLO PLATINUM LIMITED (AMS) LONG (TRADE OF THE WEEK!!!)This is undoubtedly the trade of the week, or rather following week (considering the fact that the markets are now closed at the time of writing). The stock price has been parabolic to the upside and you would feel your stomach churn if you thought of where to enter and where to put a stop loss. But I will not be providing you with a sense of safety as trading is always a risky game. However, I have identified 150 000 as a good target to take your “profits” should they present themselves. It would be fair enough to lock in some profits by moving your stop loss to this level if the buyers push the price to this point.
You can never be too careful in this South African market in light of what just happened to Telkom shares. Telkom is starting to turn into another Steinhoff if you know what I mean. The bears in this market can maul your account and you could kiss your retirement portfolio goodbye. If you are buying Telkom, then definitely you are catching a falling knife both literally and figuratively. Back to Anglo Platinum, be careful of those douche bags holding dozens of shares who might just dump their stakes to make their “killing” and leave you capitulated. Also, you might just want to keep tabs on earnings report because from what I read, Telkom’s earnings were a flop and, yes, their failure to acquire Cell C also contributed to the massive sell-off.
Buy: Now!!! Yes, the price has already rejected the inner trendline on the 4-hour chart and formed two bullish candles. A stop-loss is a definite must in these parabolic stock markets, but make sure you give your trade enough room to breathe. I would suggest a stop-loss below the 126572 price level, which is the previous low.
I am personally going to try to enter this trade at market open on Monday. Yeah, after I missed that Capitec rally, trust me I am not going to a good moves like this again.