#XPDUSD Palladium reaching long-term accumulation levelsPalladium is starting to pique my interest. After retreating from as high as $3000 at the peak in April 21' - the commodity is now down 65% and reaching interesting long term levels. Firstly the current level at approximately $1025 is where palladium peaked as far as back in January 01' - almost 22 years ago. If this becomes a point of polarity, the previous top(resistance) should start to morph into support. This level was also tested in late December 2017 after not having made new highs for 16 years! To think that the commodity is basically flat from the highest point some 22 years ago is quite something...
What makes this level even more interesting to me is that we have approached the 200 month moving average (green moving average on the chart). Interestingly, this is where the palladium price bottomed back in Late 2016 before rallying almost 500% to reach the Peak of $3000 in April 21'. Also, if you look at the RSI and MACD indicators at the bottom of my chart, you will see just how oversold the commodity is. To put it into perspective, the only time we were more oversold going back to 1997 (which is as far as i can go), was April 2003 where we traded as low as $150...
I would start accumulating here, with scope to add down at $850 should it get there, which is where we find the uptrend connecting the 2008 and 2016 lows. I will be surprised if we get that far, but I will start accumulating from current levels for a move higher. We are so stretched in price here that I do expect some mean reversion to take place in the weeks and months ahead. We are already starting to see mines having to close shafts which is telling you that PGM prices at these levels are not sustainable and something has to give sooner or later...
Angloplatinum
#AMS - time to accumulate again?Since the highs in March 2022, Angloplat has corrected almost 50%. I am starting to become interested in this chart on a medium term basis for the following reasons:
(1) Supported off 61.8% fib from Mar 22 and Mar 20 Highs and lows
(2) Rising channel support
(3) Has tended to consolidate under the 200WMA before reversing on a weekly time frame
(4) 200wma still trending upwards
(5) supported off September 21 horizontal lows
Remember this is a weekly chart so it could take some time to play out with the possibility of weekly consolidation in this zone, but ultimately I would bet on my chances of this resolving higher in due course.
#Palladium getting ready to rocket?Keep an eye on Palladium here... looks to be consolidating in a neat bullish falling wedge formation. More importantly, the RSI is making a series of higher highs (divergency) which is warning of a rally to come...
Might be worth looking at a couple of the palladium/platinum plays... Sibanye, Impala, AngloPlat, Northams etc which would be beneficiaries if this plays out
Potential Fib Retracement on AMSJSE:AMS has been trading in a downward trend since March this year. For basically the whole month of July, it made a retracement all the way up to the 61.8 Fib level. It then went down again to form lower lows. It is currently bouncing off a very strong support level and is looking like it will make a retracement again before continuing downwards. My prediction is that it might go up to the resistance level which coincides with the 50/61.8 Fib level. Let's see what happens.
Bullish PlatinumPlatinum corrected to pre-pandemic Trend and is following in this pattern.
3 strong pullbacks displayd with regression trends before breakouts.
Accumulated the last month for change of direction to follow trend.
Waiting on EMA to confirm Bullish action.
From a political standpoint it's inevitabe that the price should increase due to vaccine rollouts, increased production of EV's, back to normal production of vehicles and increases in tech demand.
Long term investment opportunity
AMS - Possible long tradeJSE:AMS is looking good for a long position based off of our 3 momentum indicators. It has also recently found support and bounced nicely off of the 200SMA. I think we could see a nice upward move to at least the 180000 level and if it doesn't find resistance there and breaks through it could go all the way to around the 200000 level.
Anglo American Plat Ltd looks really overboughtEverything about this chart is telling me that the stock needs to retrace and perhaps consolidate at lower levels before its next leg upwards. At face value the company appears to be heavily overbought. I would usually take significant profits at this point, however, the price of platinum looks really bullish.
Its a case of reconciling whats been priced into vs the implications of a higher platinum price.
So what is one to do?
I'm incline to say take some profits...
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
ANGLO PLATINUM LIMITED (AMS) LONG (TRADE OF THE WEEK!!!)This is undoubtedly the trade of the week, or rather following week (considering the fact that the markets are now closed at the time of writing). The stock price has been parabolic to the upside and you would feel your stomach churn if you thought of where to enter and where to put a stop loss. But I will not be providing you with a sense of safety as trading is always a risky game. However, I have identified 150 000 as a good target to take your “profits” should they present themselves. It would be fair enough to lock in some profits by moving your stop loss to this level if the buyers push the price to this point.
You can never be too careful in this South African market in light of what just happened to Telkom shares. Telkom is starting to turn into another Steinhoff if you know what I mean. The bears in this market can maul your account and you could kiss your retirement portfolio goodbye. If you are buying Telkom, then definitely you are catching a falling knife both literally and figuratively. Back to Anglo Platinum, be careful of those douche bags holding dozens of shares who might just dump their stakes to make their “killing” and leave you capitulated. Also, you might just want to keep tabs on earnings report because from what I read, Telkom’s earnings were a flop and, yes, their failure to acquire Cell C also contributed to the massive sell-off.
Buy: Now!!! Yes, the price has already rejected the inner trendline on the 4-hour chart and formed two bullish candles. A stop-loss is a definite must in these parabolic stock markets, but make sure you give your trade enough room to breathe. I would suggest a stop-loss below the 126572 price level, which is the previous low.
I am personally going to try to enter this trade at market open on Monday. Yeah, after I missed that Capitec rally, trust me I am not going to a good moves like this again.
$JSEAMS Within touching distance of all time highsAfter touching a low of R156 in January 2016, the stock is up by a whopping 791%!! (current price : R1390) The last time the RSI reached these levels of 90 on the monthly chart back in Jun - August 2017, we saw the stock retrace almost R500 in 3 months!! While i am not suggesting that history repeats itself, i am merely advising caution at chasing Anglo Plats as the stock is getting extremely overbought and it is within touching distance of the previous all time highs which was tagged in May 2018 (R1438.63). Momentum is on it's side, but as we saw in 2007, when the stock eventually corrects, they are usually quite quick & aggressive, and you don't want to get caught on the wrong side of that!
PLATINUM/RAND (XPT/ZAR) 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME SHORTI will be selling the XPT/ZAR if prices breach below the R11 550 price. Currently, prices are moving in a downtrend, g=forming a series of lower highs and lower lows and bear flags. If we see the corrective structure being breached to the downside, we will get our confirmation for a short trade.