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Antonioferlito

When will there be the long-awaited rebound in gas prices?If you would like to be notified whenever I post a new article, just click "FOLLOW" at the top. Also, if you would like to elaborate on a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I will be happy to help you. When will there be the long-awaited rebound in gas prices? After a sharp drop of 7.5 percent in the previous session, the U.S. Natural Gas Future - Apr 2024 (NGJ4) rose slightly above the $1.65/MMBtu mark. Traders are facing an oversupply situation with high storage levels and weak demand due to a mild winter. However, producer efforts to limit production are providing some support. Despite a brief interruption in January due to Arctic frost, gas production still remains at historic highs. The mild weather has led inventories to be well above average, as evidenced by EIA's latest report showing storage levels 22.3 percent above normal. As a result of prices falling to their lowest in 3 1/2 years, Chesapeake Energy has reduced its production plans With natural gas prices near multi-year lows, it is fair to ask whether this is a good buying opportunity. To get an accurate forecast of the future of the gas market, it is critical to analyze the outlook of its producers. These companies provide valuable data that can help us determine whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued. In addition, by considering the correlation between these companies and natural gas futures, we can get a better idea of the trend of the natural gas market. If you are thinking of investing in this sector, avoid doing so through futures. We are currently in a Contango situation. This means that future prices are higher than the current futures price, causing an upward curve. As we get closer to the expiration date of the contract, the gap between the spot and future prices will narrow, causing the curve to converge back to the spot price. If you are looking to invest in gas, your best choice would be to buy shares in gas producers. In this article, we will take a look at Antero Resources Corp using One of TRADINGVIEW's features to better understand the financial aspects of the company. TRADINGVIEW is like having a high-level technical analysis expert at your fingertips. Because of its intelligence, it automatically analyzes the company providing you with important data that would otherwise take months of study to calculate. As you can see from the images, the stock is in the sell zone as shown by the oscillators and this indicates a potential downtrend. This means that it is still too early to buy natural gas. The ideal time might be the second quarter of the year. With the arrival of a hot summer, the demand for natural gas to power air conditioning systems could increase significantly. As a result, we expect the price of natural gas to increase starting in April. It should be kept in mind that the demand for natural gas for summer cooling is much lower than the demand for winter heating in the United States. According to the average seasonal data for the past 5 years, January is the month with the highest demand for natural gas, while July slightly exceeds August as the peak summer month. Overall, total gas consumption in the United States in January is 35.5 percent higher than the demand recorded in July. An opportunity to increase gas prices could come from a major player in the energy sector such as Chesapeake Energy Corp, which recently announced a 20 percent reduction in capital asset investment. This will result in a decrease in the number of drilling rigs, thus reducing gas production and oversupply in the market. I look forward to seeing you in the next article! And remember, always rely on TradingView for your trading: an essential tool that can help you avoid serious mistakes in your trading. You can purchase it through this link www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
What to expect in terms of market performance in May?If you want to be notified every time I post a new article, just click 'FOLLOW' above. Also, if you want to learn more about a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I'll be happy to help. What to expect in terms of market performance in May? The recent expansion of the monetary base following the pandemic has generated enormous liquidity in the US banking system. When banks have too much liquidity, they can become reckless and engage in the wrong investment strategies. This has been the situation in which Credit Suisse and many US banks have found themselves, with a fatal outcome for some of them. Banks are trying to de-risk their loans, but to do so, they need to shorten the maturities of their loans, which means less long-term lending (mortgages). However, it is now too late: with the arrival of the recession, the mortgages in the portfolio will lose value and this could cause a sharp decline in the market. A worrying signals also come from consumer credit in the United States, which, as shown in the graph, is constantly decreasing. One of the first victims, Credit Suisse, was bailed out, but failed to pay the Additional Tier 1 bonds which were considered very reliable. Analyzing the Shiller PE ratio, an equation that measures the ratio of price to cyclically adjusted earnings, we find that the current stock market is as overvalued as it was at the height of the 1929 bubble, with readings just below the 30 threshold in both cases. The sharp drop in First Republic's shares, down 80% this week, could make the Fed think again about a possible rate hike. On Wednesday, they tried to get the bigger banks to buy the long-dated bonds above market value, but without success. For this reason, it seems that the hypothesis of a pause on May 3 has become more evident. In my view, the Fed will not slow down as history shows that rate hike breaks can lead to increases in inflation, as happened in the 1970s. According to the Commerce Department's initial estimate, US GDP increased 1.1%, which is lower than the forecast growth of 2.0% and slower than last quarter's growth. The economy experienced a decline in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment, as well as rising imports negatively impacting growth. The market crash will start in the US because stock prices are higher than in Europe. After that, we will also see a decline on the other side of the Atlantic. With the market crashing, I decided to invest in the Vix, also known as the Fear Index. It is based on options on the S&P 500 index, with which it has a negative correlation: if the S&P 500 falls sharply, the VIX rises. My first target is 30 and according to my model in the coming quarters we will see 3700 on the S&p 500. Author's note: The information and content provided on this site should not be considered as an invitation to invest in the financial markets. The Content is a personal opinion of Dr. Antonio Ferlito.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
Is Tesla implementing the wrong strategy?If you want to be notified every time I post a new article, just click 'FOLLOW' above. Also, if you want to learn more about a particular topic or need some advice, please comment below the article and I'll be happy to help. Is Tesla implementing the wrong strategy? Despite yesterday's sharp price drop, Tesla doesn't seem to react before the open. The stock remains at a two-and-a-half-month low with no sign of recovery. The performance for the year was reflected in an increase of 32%. To maintain solid growth, the company has decided to lower the prices of its electric vehicles around the world, including in the United States, where it had already fallen due to increasingly fierce competition. This caused Q1 gross margins to decline 19.3% from 29.1% last year, falling short of the average forecast of 21%. Since Tesla began cutting prices, the stock has lost a quarter of its value. The company said that despite price reductions in some areas during the first quarter, it was able to maintain a controllable reduction in operating margins. The company also announced it was ready to make further cost cuts, including finding more efficient ways to produce in its modernized facilities. The company stood by its production forecast for the year of 1.80 million vehicles, up against consensus estimates of 1.84 million. I have already expressed my opinion in previous articles, and I confirm that management has made a wrong choice by sacrificing margins in order to follow a sales strategy. We are dealing with a company in the automotive sector, which has to cope with the typical ups and downs of the sector. The Fed expects economic growth to decline at the end of the year, with a return to recovery over the next two years. This is a topic of great relevance to the entire global economy. It all started with the sudden rise in interest rates that is creating problems for the banking sector, which is increasingly reluctant to lend. As for the 'temporary recession', I myself am not too convinced that it will be just a mild recession. When the recession comes to the end of the year, we know the automotive sector will be badly hit, except probably the luxury sector. Therefore, we have to be prepared to face the consequences of this crisis. Savers are in a difficult situation due to the high interest rates. Getting a loan to buy a car isn't as cheap as it used to be, with interest nearly twice as high as it was in 2015. This obviously has a negative impact not only on Tesla, but also on the entire automotive industry. Tesla was forced to lower prices following the huge and rapid growth of inventories, which rocketed within a year, thus highlighting a clear overproduction. This is an important warning signal, since a potential Tesla buyer would have an incentive to delay his purchase if he learns of the continuing decline in selling prices. If there's a chance they could save a few thousand dollars in a month or two, why would they buy it at full price now? Getting out of this situation is not easy. Lowering prices can also have a negative effect on brand reputation, as it could lead to a loss of exclusivity. In confirmation of the above, I believe that Tesla is currently overvalued. My valuation is HKEX:85 and my model will stay that way in the coming quarters. If you need technical and psychological support from me, google me. Author's note: The information and content provided on this site should not be considered as an invitation to invest in the financial markets. The Content is a personal opinion of Mr Antonio Ferlito.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by Antonio_Ferlito
It is not yet the right time to buy Natural gasIt is not yet the right time to buy Natural gas. U.S. natural gas futures prices hit a three-week high on Monday, climbing nearly 8% after forecasts of colder temperatures and higher heating demand in the next two weeks. The predicted decrease in temperature has led to an increase in the value of futures. Prices have risen as the amount of gas being exported abroad as liquefied natural gas from the United States is heading for a new monthly high. Export levels remained elevated for the second consecutive month in April. Forecasters are foreseeing lower-than-usual temperatures in most of the 48 continental US states between April 17 and 25. Refinitiv estimates that this trend pushes gas demand across the United States, including exports, to 94.8 bcf/d in the coming week, up from 94.1 bcf/d this week. Good news comes from natural gas demands, however, it has not been a problem in the year 2023. Natural gas experiences a higher demand during the summer (July and August) for electricity generation, while in the winter (December to February/March) there is a sharp increase in demand for heating homes and buildings in the North East and Midwest. Natural gas has multiple uses, including industrial use, for home heating and to produce electricity. A major alternative source to NG-generated electricity is coal, but with still high prices - $3.5 per MBTU versus $2.5 for NG - there are strong economic and capacity pressures for utilities to scale up the production of energy using natural gas. With many coal-fired plants expected to be phased out over the next year, these pressures are set to increase. I am confident about the demand for natural gas, but pessimistic about production. Production remains high and adverse weather can cause problems as we have witnessed this winter season. The price of gas has fallen due to warmer temperatures, which have led to a significant increase in stocks. Looking at the technical picture, the short-term trend appears to be bullish supported by good volumes. However, the movement was not caused by purchases, but by short-coverings. When prices drop significantly, speculators will buy back to close out gaining positions, thus creating a temporary bounce. My pricing model points to natural gas prices rising to HKEX:5 over the next few quarters. So I will monitor inventory weekly to consider purchasing the gas. I expect drought and extreme temperatures to come this summer, so my plan is supported by that scenario. The opportunity is tempting and I can't afford to pass it up. Author's note: The contents and information presented on this site should not be considered as a solicitation to invest in the financial markets.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Antonio_Ferlito
1
Are the rumors about oil production cuts just talk?Oil prices are hurtling above HKEX:80 a barrel for both Brent and WTI futures. Oil reached a year-to-date high in morning trading on April 12 as traders watched demand and a report from a US company indicated a further reduction in crude inventories at the key storage hub of the country. After OPEC's surprising decision to cut production, oil levels are low in the US and all eyes are on price developments. However, China's openness should keep demand buoyant and support prices, given tight supply. However, with the ongoing economic crisis and inflation showing signs of strength in the world's major economies, central banks will likely have to raise interest rates again. This will inevitably have repercussions on oil demand. The Fed can influence oil prices by raising interest rates, thus curbing the run of black gold. An upward trend in rates could lead to stability or even a decline in the price. When the Fed raises interest rates, economic growth tends to slow down. This can also lead to weakening global oil demand, as loans and investments become more expensive. As a result, the International Monetary Fund also cut its 2023 global growth forecast, and the US Energy Information Administration cut its estimates for 2023 growth by 40,000 bpd. Even if there is limited supply, the price of oil can easily fall under these loose conditions inflicted by a more aggressive Fed. I also question whether the production cuts are respected. OPEC has few regulations, and we have seen earlier announcements of production cuts that have not been implemented. The issue is simple: with current prices, the more oil you produce, the more revenue you generate. So it is reasonable to expect that the cuts will eventually not be met. Latest reports indicate that Saudi Aramco will maintain its oil supplies to Asian refineries, despite OPEC+'s plan to cut production by 1.16 million barrels per day from May through the end of the year. The UAE's state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has also told Asian buyers it will supply them with full contract volumes in June. From the technical analysis standpoint, oil prices are trading strongly above the fast moving averages but with declining volumes, which makes me suspect that this rapid price rally may be set to end soon. According to my model, oil should trade at HKEX:75 in the next quarter. Author's note: The contents and information presented on this site should not be considered as a solicitation to invest in the financial markets. It is simply a matter of personal opinions and operations.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
Is Bitcoin a Better Long-Term Investment Than Gold ? To keep track of my latest posts, click on 'FOLLOW' at the top of the page. You will be notified every time I post new content. In the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin recorded an outstanding performance with a growth of 73%. To explain the reason for the growth of Bitcoin it is important to refer to its genesis and the historical period in which we live. The subprime mortgage crisis was wreaking havoc on the US economy in early 2009, with many banks doomed to fail. Bitcoin was specially designed to counter the influence of traditional currencies, which are controlled by central banks. With this virtual currency we can finally break the hegemony of these currencies. In 2023 we are faced with a situation very similar to the 2007-2008 crisis, with banks in trouble and central banks rushing to print money to bail them out. We have already addressed this topic in previous articles: printing money is a recipe for disaster, as it increases both private and public debt. It has become increasingly clear that government bonds and deposits, especially in local banks, are not safe enough. The recent case of Credit Suisse, where the Bonds were completely cancelled, is a very worrying example. The current tensions are leading to an increase in demand for Bitcoin, which is currently behaving as the quintessential safe haven asset: gold. In my previous piece, I expressed my view on the impending market crash and stressed the importance of having safe-haven assets in your portfolio, if and when that happens. Over the last 3 months of 2023, Bitcoin has proven to be a resilient currency, gaining ground in weeks of both ups and downs. As regulation evolves, the outlook for Bitcoin is getting better and better. China had banned the purchase of cryptocurrencies, but soon realized the seriousness of the mistake. The Chinese have found a way to buy and sell cryptocurrencies on foreign brokers despite the national ban. From the recent updates on TIK TOK, we can see that Bitcoin has started to be a little more accepted.For the first time the Bitcoin price update appeared on the platform, symbolically representing a higher consideration towards it. Investor sentiment today is highlighted by record numbers of tweets referring to Bitcoin – a clear sign that investor interest is growing rapidly. To keep track of my latest posts, click on 'FOLLOW' at the top of the page. You will be notified every time I post new content. In the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin recorded an outstanding performance with a growth of 73%. To explain the reason for the growth of Bitcoin it is important to refer to its genesis and the historical period in which we live. The subprime mortgage crisis was wreaking havoc on the US economy in early 2009, with many banks doomed to fail. Bitcoin was specially designed to counter the influence of traditional currencies, which are controlled by central banks. With this virtual currency we can finally break the hegemony of these currencies. In 2023 we are faced with a situation very similar to the 2007-2008 crisis, with banks in trouble and central banks rushing to print money to bail them out. We have already addressed this topic in previous articles: printing money is a recipe for disaster, as it increases both private and public debt. It has become increasingly clear that government bonds and deposits, especially in local banks, are not safe enough. The recent case of Credit Suisse, where the Bonds were completely cancelled, is a very worrying example. The current tensions are leading to an increase in demand for Bitcoin, which is currently behaving as the quintessential safe haven asset: gold. In my previous piece, I expressed my view on the impending market crash and stressed the importance of having safe-haven assets in your portfolio, if and when that happens. Over the last 3 months of 2023, Bitcoin has proven to be a resilient currency, gaining ground in weeks of both ups and downs. As regulation evolves, the outlook for Bitcoin is getting better and better. China had banned the purchase of cryptocurrencies, but soon realized the seriousness of the mistake. The Chinese have found a way to buy and sell cryptocurrencies on foreign brokers despite the national ban. From the recent updates on TIK TOK, we can see that Bitcoin has started to be a little more accepted.For the first time the Bitcoin price update appeared on the platform, symbolically representing a higher consideration towards it. Investor sentiment today is highlighted by record numbers of tweets referring to Bitcoin – a clear sign that investor interest is growing rapidly. The social network gives everyone a deeper understanding of which assets will become more popular in the near future. There are also positive signals from a political point of view from America, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. publicly expressing his opinion on his Twitter account and arguing that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin offer a way out from the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy. Since the first financial crises, central banks seem eager to print more money which could lead to significant currency devaluation. This is something of great concern for the markets. When monetary values ​​start to fall, gold is overtaken by Bitcoin. This is due to the limited supply which gives this cryptocurrency an advantage over other investments. Bitcoin has a maximum amount of 21 million BTC that can be 'mined'. Case studies have shown us that investing in Bitcoin can bring big returns after a massive cash injection, such as in 2020 during the pandemic. In that precise period, Bitcoin clearly surpassed gold as a safe currency. The social network gives everyone a deeper understanding of which assets will become more popular in the near future. There are also positive signals from a political point of view from America, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. publicly expressing his opinion on his Twitter account and arguing that cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin offer a way out from the effects of the Fed’s monetary policy. Since the first financial crises, central banks seem eager to print more money which could lead to significant currency devaluation. This is something of great concern for the markets. When monetary values ​​start to fall, gold is overtaken by Bitcoin. This is due to the limited supply which gives this cryptocurrency an advantage over other investments. Bitcoin has a maximum amount of 21 million BTC that can be 'mined'. Case studies have shown us that investing in Bitcoin can bring big returns after a massive cash injection, such as in 2020 during the pandemic. In that precise period, Bitcoin clearly surpassed gold as a safe currency. Bitcoin This year, amid worries of a banking crisis, Bitcoin has gained over 80%, while bullion only +11%. The technical situation is also very good, with prices well above the 3-month average. Volumes are also supported by a fast exponential moving average signaling a decidedly strong trend. I opened positions related to Bitcoin in March and I am ready to buy more Bitcoin and related stocks, such as RIOT PLATFORMS, INC. (RIOT). Author's words: The contents and information presented on this site should not be considered as a solicitation to invest in the financial markets. It is simply a matter of personal opinions and operations.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Antonio_Ferlito
Tesla's ErrorEU and US futures are stable after the increases in the first half of the month. China and hopes of a mild recession in Europe and the US continue to hold up the markets. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by +2.9% year on year, slowing down from +3.9% in the third quarter but much higher than expected (+1.6%). The seasonally adjusted figure is zero growth from the previous +3.9%: the consensus was -1.1%. 2022 closes with a growth of +3%, among the lowest in the last fifty years. In December, industrial production rose by +3.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, slightly above consensus estimates. Retail sales fell by 1.8% in the last month of the year, much better than the -9% expected by economists. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles, the indices are supported by the rise in Chinese stock exchanges due to the reopening after so many months of containment due to the virus. Furthermore, the latest Chinese macroeconomic data are excellent, well above the analysts' consensus. In any case, the recession that will lead to a drop in corporate profits will come, and the markets do not yet discount this. The recession in the US is expected by many, but there are also doubts about a possible recession in Europe. The recession will also arrive in Europe precisely when the ECB, which has proven very cautious concerning the FED, will raise rates crossing the critical threshold of 3%. We will, therefore, soon see the actual collapse of the market. The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX, also known as the fear index, which uses options on the S&P 500 index as underlying, with which it has a negative correlation: if the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down and vice versa. The VSTOXX is also very interesting, the twin of the VIX, which has options on the EURO STOXX 50 index as its underlying. Natural gas: the market is oversupplied Natural gas recorded a technical rebound after the new annual lows. There is a clear difference between the short and long term-right now. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is pessimistic. The European danger has vanished, with total inventories in the EU, thanks to deficient demand for gas due to abnormal heat, savings at both the industrial and retail levels, and the green energy transition underway. However, during summer, the situation could be different, with difficulty filling in the inventories. In the USA, demand is low due to the weather; this is creating excess domestic supply for prices which adds to the reopening of some export plants, which have been offline for some time and are now contributing to the oversupply. Freeport will be decisive: one of the most crucial export plants should reopen next week. Oil: China will boost demand As expected, oil continues to prove solid mainly for two reasons: 1: The price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil that is very positive for prices and a collapse in Russian oil production. 2: Chinese oil demand held back by Covid will pick up in 2023, and we have the easing of restrictions at the end of 2022 to support. All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as there is a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long term with an $85 target. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Strategic error The stormy period for the stock is destined to continue. Sales in Q422 disappointed, with below-expectation deliveries of 405,278 cars, less than the 420,760 units analysts were betting on. There are problems in China and Europe, with management desperately driving prices down to stimulate demand, which continues to disappoint due to inflation and competition. It is a wrong move, as it will damage the company's profitability. Behind it, all still linger the distractions of the founder, Musk, who is increasingly involved in other projects. As written at the beginning of the year with prices in the 300 area, the stock, according to my model, was worth $170 and therefore was very expensive at the beginning of 2022. In light of the latest data, I am updating my Tesla fair value at 85 dollars, where I will start thinking about buying the stock if the management's strategy changes. Disclosure: I hold a Buy position in Natural gas, VIX, VSTOXX, and a US stock with significant upside potential.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Antonio_Ferlito
Are Dax, Nasdaq Close to a New Collapse?EU and US futures are consolidating the gains of the beginning of the month. The exuberance was mainly extinguished by the interventions of two members of the Federal Reserve board. Mary Day of the San Francisco Fed and Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed reiterated that the campaign against inflation is proceeding without hesitation, and the minimum target is a rate above 5%, from the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. This is also supported by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The same line is supported in Europe. "Interest rates will still need to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels tightening enough to ensure a timely return of inflation to our medium-term target of 2%." This was stated by Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB governing council, speaking at a conference organized by the Riksbank on the independence of central banks. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles, the indices are exhausting their strength, but are still supported by the rise in Chinese stock markets due to the reopening after so many months of containment of the virus. The recession, which will lead to a drop in profits, is not yet discounted by the markets. Recession Is Coming We will therefore see the real collapse of the market, and we must not be fooled by the increases at the beginning of 2023. EU indices will hold much better than US indices as the ECB is proving more dovish than the Fed. Furthermore, high inflation in the EU is destined to collapse quickly, thanks to the fall in gas prices. The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX, also known as the fear index, which uses options on the S&P 500 index as underlying, with which it has a negative correlation: if the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down and vice versa. Natural gas As predicted in previous articles, the natural gas crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short and long term profile of the market right now. In the long term, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is negative. The European danger has vanished, with full inventories in the EU thanks to a very low demand for gas, due to anomalous heat, savings at both an industrial and retail level, and the energy transaction underway. In summer, however, the situation could be different, with possible difficulty in filling the inventories. In the USA, demand is low due to the weather and that is creating a domestic excess supply - negative for prices - which adds to the doubts regarding the reopening of some export plants, which have been offline for some time and which contribute to the oversupply. The Freeport factor will be decisive, one of the most important export plants which should reopen next week. Also the weather could continue to be an issue, as cold temperatures do not seem to arrive at the moment. In Area 4, 3.50 I still expect a technical rebound from the gas, with a target of 5. Crude oil Negative start of 2023 for oil prices due to concern from COVID-19 infections in China. While prices will suffer in the short term, the situation is positive in the long run for two reasons. The price cap, although not penalizing for Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil - very positive for prices - and to a collapse in Russian oil production. Chinese demand for oil, held back by COVID-19, will restart in 2023 thanks to the easing of restrictions at the end of 2022. All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as there is a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long-term with a $85 target. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the stock destined to continue There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to a weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is increasingly threatening. Also, Elon Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. The statements from Musk, who says that he will leave the post of CEO Twitter once a replacement has been found, were of no use. As written early in 2022, according to my model, the stock was worth $170 and was already very expensive at the beginning of the year. In light of the latest data, I am updating my tesla fair value at $85, a level where I will start thinking about buying the stock. Disclosure: I hold a Buy position in natural gas, VIX, and a US stock with big upside potential. For information on my services and investment strategies, you can write me on my TW
EUREX:FDAX1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
1
Nasdaq, a crash is coming?EU and the US are mixed at the beginning of 2023. The EU Futures are performing well, the US Futures are weak. In France, EU harmonized inflation unexpectedly slowed down, in December the increase was 6.7% year on year, from +7.1% in November, the consensus was +7.3%. Consumer prices in Germany also fell more than expected. Based on the data released so far, and given the consensus on what is yet to come out, Eurozone inflation, due out on Friday, is expected to slow to 9.1%. However, in January a new rise is likely linked to the disappearance of government measures introduced by some countries to combat expensive fuel'. The situation is similar in the USA, but with two major differences. Inflation falls less quickly in the US and the FED is more aggressive in terms of rate hikes than the ECB. {{8874|Nasdaq 100 Futures}}, S&P 500 Futures, {{8826|DAX Futures}}, {{177|FTSE MIB}}, {{174|IBEX 35}}: As written in previous articles the indices have exhausted their strength and are starting to go down. The recession that will lead to a fat decline in earnings is not yet discounted by the markets. This means that there is room to fall even if in the short term the Chinese move to loosen the containment rules could support the indices. However, I expect a recession in the US and the EU, in these cases markets always anticipate a recession 3 months in advance. In January we will therefore see the real collapse of the market and we must not be fooled by the increases at the beginning of the week. EU indices will hold much better than the US, as the ECB is proving more accommodative than the Fed. Furthermore, high inflation in the EU is destined to collapse quickly, thanks to the fall in gas prices which will be good for the EU. So it will be the American indices that collapse, with the EU indices holding up much better. The ideal instrument in these cases is the {{44336|VIX}}, also known as the fear index, which uses options on the S&P 500 index as underlying, with which it has a negative correlation: if the S&P 500 goes up, the VIX goes down and vice versa. {{8862|Natural gas}}: As predicted in previous articles, the gas crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short run and the long run right now. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage as Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is negative. The European danger has vanished, with stocks in the EU full thanks to a very low demand for gas, due to both industrial and retail savings, and the energy transaction underway. In summer, however, the situation could be different, with possible difficulty in filling the stocks. In the USA, demand is low due to the weather, this is creating a very negative internal excess supply for prices which adds to the doubts regarding the reopening of some export plants, which have been offline for some time and which contribute to the oversupply. In Area 4, however, I expect a technical rebound from the gas, with a target of 5 should help arrive from the weather. {{8849|Crude Oil}}: Negative start of 2023 for oil prices due to concern from covid infections in China. While prices will suffer in the short term, the situation is positive in the long term for two reasons. 1: The price cap, although not penalizing for Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil that is very positive for prices and to a collapse in Russian oil production. 2: Chinese demand for oil held back by Covid will restart in 2023 and we have the easing of restrictions at the end of 2022 to support All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as there is a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long-term with an $85 target. Tesla (NASDAQ:{{13994|TSLA}}): The bad period for the stock is destined to continue. Sales disappointed, with below-expected fourth-quarter deliveries of 405,278 cars, less than the 420,760 units analysts were betting on. There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis (BIT:BIT:STLA) increasingly threatening. Also increasing the distractions of the founder Musk increasingly distracted by Twitter. The statements of CEO Musk, who says that he will leave the post of CEO Twitter once a replacement has been found, were of no use. Banco Santander (BME:{{474|SAN}}): The leading Spanish banking group is the best positioned in Europe in terms of prices. In general, banks are favored by rate hikes, and we know that the ECB will raise rates further at upcoming meetings. Analyzing the stock, I am struck by the very high margins, and comparing this bank with the other competitors using the multiples method, it can be seen that the stock is at a discount. According to my model, the title is worth 4 EUR. My open positions: Yesterday I opened a Buy position on Natural gas, and in the previous week I opened a buy position on VIX. I always hold an American stock in my portfolio with great upside potential. For information on my investment strategies, you can write me on TW
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
1
China Reopening to Send Oil Rallying Towards $90Future EU and the US recover after China said it would abandon its quarantine requirements for incoming visitors, further easing border controls to curb COVID-19, which have lasted for three years. China will stop requiring incoming travelers to comply with quarantine starting Jan. 8, the National Health Commission said on Monday. It will also reduce the severity of COVID-19 as it has become less virulent and will gradually evolve into a common respiratory infection. The United States 10-Year Treasury Note (ZN) recovers from 3.74%. The Fed's official interest rate could reach 5.25% to 5.50% by the end of 2023, based on expectations that the labor market will continue to add new jobs in early 2023, exerting further upward pressure on wages. Crude Oil: Oil proves very solid despite the collapse of the indices. Two main reasons are behind the excellent performance. 1: The price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil that is very positive for prices and to a collapse in Russian oil production. 2: Chinese demand for oil held back by Covid will restart in 2023, and we have the easing of restrictions as support today. All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as there is a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long term with a target of $85-90. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles, the indices have exhausted their strength and are starting to go down. The markets do not yet discount the recession that will lead to a fat decline in earnings. This means there is room to fall even if, in the short term, the Chinese move to loosen the containment rules could support the indices. However, I expect a recession in the US and the EU. In these cases, markets always anticipate a recession three months in advance. In January, we will therefore see the real collapse of the market. The ideal tool in these cases is the CBOE Volatility Index, which scores excellent returns with a global recession at the door. I will shortly be doing a buy operation on this instrument with a $35-36 target. Natural gas: As predicted in previous articles, the gas crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short run and the long run right now. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, one must be careful to avoid hasty purchases. There are big doubts about the reopening of the export plants, which have been offline for some time now and are creating a negative internal excess supply for prices, and the seasonality of the period is negative for gas. Furthermore, the price cap on the TTF, set at 180, even if quite high considering that four years ago, the TTF was quoted at 20, will certainly put a stop to speculation by lowering prices, exactly what we are seeing now. This is also indirectly affecting American natural gas as it is very likely that next year American gas will be increasingly the protagonist in Europe with the exit of Russia. I will evaluate a gas entry only in the $ 4.50-5 area, prices that I already expect at the end of December and the beginning of January. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): As written in previous articles where already at the beginning of 2022, I said that too high a share price would lead to a collapse in prices. I'm still pessimistic, the profitability of the group has practically disappeared, and the prospects for 2023 are negative. According to my model, the stock is worth $70, so it can go further down. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the title, destined to continue. There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA)) increasingly threatening. Also increasing the distractions the founder, Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. The statements of CEO Musk, who says he will leave the post of CEO Twitter once a replacement has been found, were of no use. As written at the beginning of the year, The stock, according to my model, was worth $170 and was very expensive at the beginning of the year. Telecom Italia (BIT:TLIT): The split hypothesis is back in fashion by creating two entities, one for the network and one for services. As written in previous articles, it is a complex operation that would not solve the debt problem and put the shareholders at risk, who would risk further losses. In the demerger process, you would receive shares of new companies created by the demerger, which could eventually make the shareholders lose further by adding the values. Only a total takeover bid by CDP, VIV, and funds will be able to save the shareholders. When can it happen? The takeover bid consists in convincing the shareholders to be liquidated through a commercial premium. It is, therefore, important for the functioning of the launch at the worst possible moment for the listing of stock to put shareholders in a corner, a moment which, in this case, could correspond to the market lows that I expect in 2023. According to my model, the evaluation of the title is confirmed a 0.16, with the very high debt weighing heavily on the calculation.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
Could the Markets Crash in January?EU and US futures are recovering after the slide that followed the decision of the central bank of Japan. Surprisingly, the central bank of Japan has revised the tolerance threshold of the ten-year bond yield to 0%-0.5%. Some monetary policy adjustments have been talked about in recent days. Still, most economists expected that the most important announcements would come later, closer to the end of Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's mandate. In the press release, the Bank of Japan confirmed interest rates at -0.1% and anticipated a temporary increase in bond purchases for January to 9,000 billion yen a month from 7,300 billion. What does it mean in practical terms? There is room for a rise in interest rates on Japanese ten-year government bonds. Previously the maximum range was 0.25; now, it is 0.50. It is the first sign after a long time of a possible end to Japan's ultra-expansionary policies. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX Futures, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: As written in previous articles the indices have exhausted their strength and are starting to go down. The recession, which will lead to a substantial decline in earnings, is not yet discounted by the markets. This means there is plenty of room to descend. Markets always anticipate a recession three months in advance so that we will see the real market crash in January. The ideal instrument in these cases is the VIX - the S&P 500 volatility index - that usually scores excellent returns with a global recession at the door. I will shortly open a buy operation on this instrument with a $35-36 target. Natural gas: As predicted in previous articles, the crash has arrived. There is a clear difference between the short run and the long run right now. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage as Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, one must be careful to avoid impulsive purchases. There are big doubts about the reopening of the export plants, which have been offline for some time now and which are creating domestic excess supply, potentially negative for prices along with the seasonality. Furthermore, the price cap on the TTF, set at 180, even if quite high considering thatfour4 years ago, the TTF was quoted at 20, will certainly put a stop to speculation by lowering prices, exactly what we are seeing now. This is also indirectly affecting American natural gas as it is very likely that next year American gas will be increasingly the protagonist in Europe with the exit of Russia. I will evaluate a gas entry only in the 4.50-5 area, prices that I expect between the end of December and the beginning of January. Crude oil proves very solid despite the collapse of the indices. Two main reasons are behind the excellent performance. The price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could lead to an increase in demand for American oil, which is very positive. Chinese oil demand, held back by COVID, will pick up in 2023. All this is combined with the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, with countries like Russia reporting sharply declining production, a factor that is good for prices as it creates a shortage of oil. I remain positive over the long term with a target of $85-90. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): As written in previous articles, prices were too high already at the beginning of 2022. I'm still pessimistic, the profitability of the group has practically disappeared, and the prospects for 2023 are negative. According to my model, the stock is worth $70, so it can go further down. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Bad period for the stock is destined to continue. There are problems in China, with lower prices, due to a weakening demand which means lower margins, and competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA) is increasingly threatening. Also, Elon Musk is increasingly distracted by Twitter. As written early in 2022, according to my model, the stock was worth $170 and was already very expensive at the beginning of the year. My current positions: I currently have a buy position on the Dax index, which is about to close in profit.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito
1
Nasdaq: Is the Rally Over?EU and U.S. futures are stable, awaiting today's data on U.S. inflation, which will be decisive for the next movements of the indices. The threat of a recession is getting closer, creating a climate of pessimism in the markets, driven by the many alarms raised by investment banks. Today’s inflation numbers will be the most important macro data of December. A faster-than-expected collapse in inflation will set off a new rally in the market. The market expects inflation to drop from 7.7% to 7.3%: a figure below 7.3% would represent a positive surprise. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX, FTSE MIB Futures, IBEX 35 Futures: The rebound has almost exhausted its strength with the Christmas rally anticipated by the markets by a couple of weeks. For today I expect a greater-than-expected drop in inflation in the U.S. which will give further impetus to the markets thanks to the hopes of easing the restrictive policies of the central banks. We saw in November what a boost any indication of easing the restrictive policy can give the markets. We exploited the situation properly with an excellent Buy operation on the Nasdaq 100 index near the market lows, a position that is still open. Starting in 2023, things will change: we are close to the end of the rate hikes cycle, and I advise you not to miss the following articles to keep up to date. Natural gas: We’re seeing a pronounced recovery due to the severe cold in the U.S. The rebound will not last long, though, and like last time it will be reabsorbed in a few days by the market. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, one must be careful to avoid impulsive purchases. On the supply side, the reopening of export plants which have been offline for some time is creating domestic excess production, which, added to the seasonality, is potentially very negative for gas prices. The technical rebound is a selling opportunity. I will evaluate a gas entry only in the $ 4.50 area, where I expect to see prices by the end of December. Crude oil: The rebound is mainly driven by the alarms raised by investment banks about a possible recession in 2023, which will lead to a collapse in oil demand. But be careful; the price cap, although not penalizing Russia, could increase demand for American oil, which would be very positive for prices. Furthermore, the Chinese oil demand held back by COVID will start to pick up in 2023, and OPEC is ready to intervene with a production cut to support prices in the event of a new collapse. This adds to the fact that oil stocks are at their lowest in 20 years, another promising factor. With that said, I remain positive over the long-term with a $90 target. I currently have a Buy position with an average price of $75. You can contact me to follow up on the operation. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN): As written in previous articles, already at the beginning of 2022, the exceedingly high price of the stock was anticipating a collapse. I remain pessimistic, as the group's profitability has practically vanished this year, and the prospects for 2023 are also negative. According to my model, the stock is worth $70, so it can go further down. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): The judicial vicissitudes of Elon Musk, accused by Richard Tornetta of receiving $ 56 billion in compensation in 2018 for having achieved, as CEO of Tesla, 'easy performance goals' set ad hoc by the board of directors, are weighing on the stock value. This alleged unjust enrichment would have been obtained 'without even requiring his full-time presence in the car company' and would have served to finance 'the dream of colonizing Mars. Added to this are the lower prices of flagship products in China due to weakening demand and the increasingly threatening competition in Europe with Stellantis NV (NYSE:STLA). Also, Musk is increasingly distracted by his Twitter venture. As written at the beginning of the year, according to my model, the stock is worth $170.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by Antonio_Ferlito
Natural Gas: Prices Could Plummet in DecemberEU and US futures remain stable, guided by the serene climate of the Chinese markets, where the launch of new support measures in China and other measures concerning the management of the pandemic could be announced shortly. This week the macro agenda revolves around Dec. 8 and 9 with the speech of the president of the ECB and with the US annual PPI, very important for confirming the ongoing decline in inflation. Nasdaq 100 Futures, S&P 500 Futures, DAX, FTSE MIB, IBEX 35: The rebound has almost exhausted its strength with the Christmas rally anticipated by the markets by a couple of weeks. In the short term, I am optimistic that the higher-than-expected drop in inflation in Europe and the US will give further impetus to the markets thanks to the easing of restrictive central bank policies. We saw last week what a boost any indication of easing the restrictive policy could give the markets. We properly exploited the situation with an excellent Buy operation on the Nasdaq 100 index near the market lows, a position still open. From 2023 things will change, and I advise you not to miss the next articles to keep up to date. Natural gas: Natural gas is in free fall as expected. The recent rebound was caused by the wave of intense cold across the US, which brought the demand for heating to a high level. The cold weather immediately vanished, with temperatures now expected to be higher than the seasonal average for December. In the long run, the situation is interesting. Europe will need even more LNG to replace Russian volumes next summer as the continent reloads storage. Chinese demand recovers from lockdowns and offsets lower imports from other Asian buyers. In the short term, the situation is pessimistic. In addition, the reopening of various export plants that have been offline for some time is creating an excess in domestic supply, which is also negative for prices. I will not buy gas at these prices for the reasons mentioned. I will evaluate a long entry only in the $ 4.50 area, which I expect will be tested in December. Crude oil: We are before a setback for oil. Although not penalizing Russia, the price cap could lead to an increase in demand for American oil, which is very positive for prices. Furthermore, the Chinese oil demand, held back by Covid, will pick up in 2023, and Opec is ready to intervene with a production cut to support prices in the event of a new collapse. However, I remain positive in the long term with a target of $90, and I am ready to re-enter after closing an excellent buy operation in profit.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by Antonio_Ferlito