Ao
Bearish Bat Harmonic and Possible Elliott Wave Count for BitcoinThis bat appears on multiple exchanges and is accompanied by both regular and hidden bearish divergences from the 1m chart all the way up to the 1D chart. We are also starting to form a bearish divergent bar on the 4H chart and could possibly form one on the 1D before the close today.
I believe that this is Wave-a of a flat because it has retraced further than 61.8% of what I believe to be wave-1. This, along with the fact that it is very short time-wise compared to wave-1, would imply that wave-2 is not yet completed and that the most likely pattern it is in is a flat, which we just completed Wave-a of. There is another distinct possibility which is that we are in an expanding triangle and that the bull-trend could continue until we break the previous high around 300, however, based on the monthly chart, I think that that is rather unlikely because the monthly chart is in what appears to be a double zigzag, like my previously published chart predicts, so an expanding triangle wouldn't make very much sense here.
Either way this is an excellent risk/reward short. Bullish sentiment is extremely high which is generally a good indication of exuberance, especially since there is a lack of accompanying bullish signals and/or long-term elliott wave counts. Either way I would proceed with caution and only trade with an amount of money you feel comfortable losing, otherwise, panic and fear will set in and you will be more prone to making mistakes.
The target for Wave-b has many possibilities (see the huge green box). It is best to wait for this to start diverging on the lower-timeframes before taking profit and riding Wave-c to the top.
Good luck and happy trading!
Scamcoins
NZDUSD Could test 0.7175Trying to simplify trading and keeping it clean.
1. Price was trending lower in a falling equidistant channel. Support/Resistance identified at 0.7239 - 0.7175
2. To current lows, strong divergence to the AO
3. Y'day price was a doji so a possible bullish close today could further strengthen the bullish bias
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Trigger: Waiting for the AO to either cross the 0-line OR waiting for a classic saucer buy signal to initiate the trade. Initial stops at recent lows.
Risk: Initial risk at minor identified resistance of 0.6684. If this is cleared, then the trade should be quite a profitable one.
UPDATE: Bitcoin, Build em' up and Break em' down (Elliott Wave)EDIT 2: This chart was the obvious winner... Wave 2 are rarely triangles.
This is the alternate count that I am currently favoring over the last chart I published ().
Looking at the 3H and above there is a pretty big bullish divergence all the way up to the 12H. My original thinking, that I published in my other chart, was that since wave v (on the current chart) has so much momentum compared to wave iii, that wave v was actually the first wave of an extension. At this time it appears that it is actually a leading diagonal like the current chart shows, and that this is in-fact an extension, however, we have not completed wave 2 of the extension. What I had labeled as wave 2 on my original chart is most likely wave a of 2. I was simply eager for this big down swing that is on the horizon. Good news is that we can increase our positions by longing and then re-shorting the top :)
The targets here set up some very nice harmonic patterns. The low target is 231 and the high target is 240. The low target 231 will create a very nice Gartley Harmonic, and the high target 240 will create a very nice Crab Harmonic. Depending on what the lower timeframes dictate, either one of these prices will be an extremely good short with a very tight stop-loss and very low r/r.
As was said in the first chart I ever posted "Want what the market wants" do not want what you want! Let the new information organize itself rather than trying to massage it into old categories. One of the most harmful things you can do in trading is anchor on to an ungrounded belief. Nobody trades the market, we all trade our individual belief systems. When someone says that "you can't do this" or "the market will do this" they are really talking about their beliefs. If you learn to trade your individual beliefs about the market you will find that you end up seeing a lot more possibilities in all markets, and you end up profiting with much more ease. There are basically two kinds of beliefs: limiting beliefs and liberating (chaotic) beliefs. Many traders are stuck in a limiting belief system because they refuse to admit that they are wrong, or simply because they cannot see any other way. Once you learn to trade your limiting beliefs for liberating beliefs trading becomes much more like a leisurely stroll through the park, rather than an arena where you are fighting other traders to the death.
Good Luck and Happy Trading! :)
Likely Elliott Wave Count for BitcoinGreat place to start re-opening shorts with a tight stop-loss. Counts on the lower time-frames support the ending of Wave 5 of 5 of c of 2 of (3)
There's also a big bearish momentum divergence on the AO at this time-frame and a 62% retracement of wave 1 of (3). Since this appears to be a Wave 3 of (3) on the horizon the next drop will be extremely strong. Bulls beware.
"No amount of thinking can accomplish what a small amount of not thinking can."