Get started

AP1!

ASX 200 flirts with bearish reversal breakoutElection jitters are in the air, and it is weighing on Wall Street sentiment - and dragging the ASX 200 with it, which also faces pressure from a spate of weak China figures in recent weeks. A potential head and shoulders top has formed on the daily chart, and prices are close to testing a support zone which could double up as a neckline. For now, the ASX appears hesitant to break the 8130/50 support zone which brings could prompt a minor bounce over the near term. A break beneath 8130 confirms the bearish reversal, which projects an approximate downside target near 7900 and the 200-day EMA. Also note the 8100 and 8000 levels which could provide support along the way MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX to new highs, or fakeout in the making?The ASX 200 futures chart reached a record high on Wednesday, and momentarily traded above 8400. Yet repeatedly we see the market hold above this level (also note the weekly R3 pivot is within the area). A bearish divergence is forming on the 1-hour chart, so the bias is for a false break of the highs and retracement lower ahead of its next sustained record high. Bears could seek a move towards the 20-hour or 50-hour EMA, or bulls could wait for such a level to be respected as support before rejoining the bullish trend. *Take note that AU employment data is released in just over 1hr* MS
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX futures snap 9-day streak, further downside loomsYesterday I outlined why I was suspicious of the ASX 200 rally, and today I see it has now retraced. The ASX 200 futures market snapped an 11-day streak after forming a bearish pinbar perfectly at a 78.6% Fibonacci level, below the 8,000 handle. Volumes have been declining during the entire ‘rally’ which shows a lack of bullish enthusiasm, and potentially points to a deeper pullback. A bearish trend has developed on the 1-hour chart, and the support zone ~7917/25 has now been respected as resistance. The bias is to fade into rallies towards that resistance zone in anticipation of a move down to 7860.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
ASX looks set to retrace from resistanceThe ASX 200 cash market enjoyed its most bullish day in seven on Thursday. But like the SPI 200 futures contract, it met resistance before pausing. The daily chart shows that a double top formed around the June 26 high and trend resistance. And as it's not unusual to see a market retrace against a strong move, and we have an NFP report looming which could suppress volatility, we're looking for prices to retrace lower against yesterday's rally. Bears could target the 20-day EMA between the weekly and monthly pivot point, with a stop above yesterday's high.
ASX24:AP1!Short
by CityIndex
SPI 200 looks set for lift-off ahead of US PCE dataWe have a huge risk event in the coming hours; US PCE inflation. Should it come in softer than expected, risk is likely to pick up as this is how it has behaved pretty much every time inflation has come in soft. Conversely, a hot inflation report could dent risk - but we suspect not to such a large degree. Fed members have been very vocal about maintaining higher rates, and markets seem more likely to jump on any chance of re-pricing in multiple cuts which could send indices higher. SPI 200 futures (of the ASX 200 cash market) just tapped a record high ahead of the European Open. Given the US dollar is also retracing, it suggests traders are placing last minute bets of a softer inflation report. But the bullish trend structure of the SPI 200 futures chart is hard to ignore. Prices have remained above the bullish trendline despite two intraday spikes below it. And an inverted head and shoulders pattern (bullish continuation during an uptrend) appears to have formed at the record high, which projects an upside target around 7900. The 100% projection of the prior rally lands around 7800.
ASX24:AP1!Long
by CityIndex