Apex
Short term view : Consolidation Hello fellas, let's make it a very quick and detail analysis about current bitcoin's condition which is crucial once again. This analysis will cover the bitcoin's potential movement for short term time frame. So, let's enjoy this technical analysis.
Looking at lower time frame which is the 4 hours chart, I see that currently the price is trending closer to the strong area of support which is the golden pocket zone. And this area however is becoming point of interest for most of the long position for bitcoin. This is because at the past performance, we see this area coincides with the previous unbroken support that always produced the huge wick to the downside (Although we saw a drop below it for about 1 day to form inverse head pattern). On the other hand, since the height on November 29th, 2019 , we can see that the price always formed a lower high which means a lot of pressure is coming from the bear.
So, the conclusion is that although the price trends just slightly above the strong support in short term, I don't think that there will be a huge rally in near future, simply because the lower high structure is still holding strong and the price must respect the resistance trend line as potential upper line that could be the candidate of triangle. I do believe, we will see a losing in volatility of bitcoin's movement at least in the next 1 or 2 days until the price can breaks the APEX of the triangle.
So, for now just enjoy your profit from shorting bitcoin!
Low Levels to BTFD Ultimately, I see no logical reason for "new lows" or even 3ks again. But anything can happen.
I believe these levels will be some of the best bets for long term additions/holdings.
Ik The daily is filled with memes but cool to see how things play out. HA candles again preformed much better overall.
Could be heading for a big move soon based on that apex in orange, could be something to watch.
#BTCUSD - 3D, APEX zone nearbyHello guys, it´s time to look at the bigger picture again. As usual I am using the 3D interval to try and figure out what are our odds here. Fact is, we could be on the well known gigantic symmetrical triangle, which increases the odds, we will follow up the downtrend until a possible support will be hit not before middle of 2020. Does this have to happen? No, this strongly depends on two factors: The yearly Pivot and the next couple of days (lots of small bearish flags following each other on small intervals) and the APEX zone.
The stage, that I mentioned in last post, that we will experience a couple of hundred $ swing-time will likely very soon be over.
The odds we will bounce here are a little worse than the odds, that we will go down further to the triangle support. Overall and long-term this is not bearish. For Hodlers this is a very uncomfortable scenario, it will take a long long time until alts start recovery, bags will go on bleeding if this becomes truth and remember, the way up is MUCH harder than the way down.
Keep your mind open for both scenarios and don´t get too stuck with one of them, it will paralyze you towards active trading.
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BTC Bullish PennantBtc appears to be forming a bullish pennant on the daily. Pennants are usually continuation patterns & very rarely produce a trend reversal. The move before the pennant formation is in an uptrend, so btc is likely to continue its move upwards if it breaks up above when we reach the apex of the triangle (we're nearly there/possibly already there).
Another key point is the volume. Volume should dry up during the formation of a pennant, which is what has been happening thus far. This adds further confirmation that this is very likely a bullish pennant. However a close below $9,300 at this point would invalidate this idea.
Bitcoin Calm Before The Storm! Bulls vs Bears !Hello Traders,
Welcome back to another update, this time on BTC, The Calm Before The Storm!
Bitcoin has been trading within a very tight range coming into its apex within the macro descending triangle formation.
Usually this is a bearish formation, however coming from a very strong impulse move up, we can literally break either direction…
Points to consider at current given time
- Price approaching apex within descending triangle
- Volume decreasing noticeably
- Major support at $9300 - $9200 area (green zone)
- Major resistance at $11,400 to $11,600 area, also in confluence with .50 Fibonacci
- EMA’s currently neutral
- RSI itself also approaching apex
- Stochs neutral and testing its own resistance
It is quite obvious that the volatility will be coming back into Bitcoin after trading in this range for some time now. This structure has been putting in lower highs over the past couple months after a crazy impulse move up from the bear market earlier this year. Bitcoin has also established a strong base of support, which has been tested multiple times, we must remember, the more times a level is tested the more it’s prone to break…
Bitcoin right now is testing a smaller uptrend within the descending triangle where it is bound to break. We have a local resistance that needs to break, if not then this can be a potential triple top. To test this level, Bitcoin would have broken the major downwards trending line, changing the macro trend and putting a higher low, this need to be confirmed with increasing bull volume.
The .50 Fibonacci is a strong resistance area as Bitcoin has had multiple rejections, break this area (Red Zone), will put in a higher high in the macro trend, which is quite bullish. If Bitcoin fails to break bullish from current apex, then the probability of testing support will be much greater, this time it’s more likely to give way as support has been tested multiple times. A break from this area will be quite bearish as this will confirm yet another macro lower high and also hold the descending formation true.
EMA’s are quite neutral at current given time as price is trading within in, we can’t really establish if its given price any support or resistance…
The RSI is looking interesting, we can see that its respecting its downwards trend, coming closer to its apex and with a break in either direction can determine which way Bitcoin will break. Similarly, the Stochastics are neutral, however a break from or a rejection from its local resistance will also help determine which way bitcoin breaks...
Overall, it’s just a matter of time for an impulsive move to come to fruition, Bitcoin has been trading range bounce for a while now coming into its major apex, and we can expect a break within the next couple days!
What are your thoughts on Bitcoin price action? Will it break bullish or bearish?
Please leave a like and comment
And remember,
“If you can learn to create a state of mind that is not affected by the market’s behaviour, the struggle will cease to exist.” – Mark Douglas
Detailed BTC Analysis. The day of resolution is near!!! What is up my people? Have not published a trade idea for a while because the market has been mostly moving sideways since my last post and my last trade idea about a possible resolution to the downside still holds as much water as it did a week ago. However, recent developments give me a hint that we might have an explosive resolution of this insufferable macro triangle/ pendant formation.
Additionally, I want to bring you a bit more meat on the bone compared to other trade ideas that I have seen recently. You are in for a treat, If you like a deep dive into a price action & technical analysis.
Caveat: The sentiment is long but, this does not mean that we will not see some blood in the streets prior to the decisive move to the upside.
Contents:
- Moving Averages
- Price action
- Price channels and possible continuation
- MACD Cross on weekly
Here we go:
On 4 Hours we are under all major moving averages including And price action to the upside is governed by 21 EMA and 50 EMA which will most likely serve as resistance.
We are still under the death cross on 4H, which means that this territory comes with great buying opportunities for long term investors and with possible unpredictable moves in all directions for traders and scalpers. Keep your shorts tight and don’t buy into this BS DCA nonsense unless you are a swing trader or a long term investor. I also would like to note that the distance between blue 50 and green 200 SMA has been increasing, there is 50 and 377 SMA bearish cross fast approaching and all of the major (21+) moving averages are sloping downwards which means that there is still some more nastiness in store for us.
However! The direction of the price movement is not as unpredictable as it looks, and here is why:
- We are approaching the end of the price movement channel that has been governing the price action since August 4 and you can identify this channel with green dotted borders and red pointers.
- Given that we do not break out from the triangle formation we would need to find a pivot to a new price action channel start of which is marked with a green pointer.
- Red circles mark the areas of confluence and they have a gravitational effect on the price action however the price usually chooses to take the path of the least resistance. Least resistance = Channel governed with STRONG support and resistance borders.
- Possible support and resistance channels are charted, bolder lines indicate major S&R and lighter indicate neutral S&R.
- Unlikely, but still possible - we might pivot immediately to a new price channel marked with bold red dotted border and orange cross arrows.
On daily we have purple 100 and brown 377 EMAs fresh bullish cross, which resulted in explosive 500$ move to the upside, however this cross is not that significant from purely TA perspective, yet it could serve as an indication that bulls want to take control of the price action. Sadly, on 4 Hour we have the same SMAs trying to cross bearish which could result in the price action that can push us over the edge.
On daily the price action is supported by 100 EMA sitting at 9800, which means that as long as we don’t open or close a daily dildo under this level, the most probable breakout from the current formation will be resolved to the upside, on the contrary, opening and closing daily price action under 100 EMA will result in early resolution of the formation to the downside and will have a waterfall effect to 9.4K, 9.1K, 8.8K and 8.5K levels.
In order to get this situation (macro consolidation) resolved to the upside, bulls need to reclaim 50 EMA (@10450 $) on daily and open and close the price action above it. Which in my opinion will create a massively bullish sentiment.
Oh one more thing: MACD on weekly just has crossed bearish. This indicator has not been great or massively helpful on high timeframes, however, in the previous situations the resolution of the MACD cross has been following:
- In bearish markets, like January 2018 it has signalled possible capitulation as was followed by 50% selloff
- In bullish trending markets, it usually signalled that the resolution of ongoing consolidation was near. This is usually followed by 5-15% drop from the current price action and a price level achieved as a result is this drop will be a new low that we will not revisit anytime soon.
Hope this is helpful to you are enjoying this detailed analysis provided by me and if you wish to have more of it, please subscribe and give an idea a like so I will now that you fancy when I deep dive into this market.
Cheers
Archie
MATICBTC Bull BreaK?Hello Traders,
Today's Chart will be on MATICBTC
Points to consider here are,
- Bullish trend on the 4hr time frame
- Next Major resistance is at around the RED zone
- RSI on upwards momentum, putting in Higher High's
- Stochs looking into upwards momentum
- EMA's currently giving price resistance but looks weak
- Below average volume coming into Apex
Matic is approaching decision time after breaking major structure, putting in Higher Highs on the 4hr Timeframe. Volume is below average indicating that a move is approaching, if break bullish then price will be looking to retest next resistance. However this whole set up can be invalidated if BTC decides to dump at given time, so its important to have stop losses in place!
Please leave a comment on what you think is most probable
and remember,
“In this business if you’re good, you’re right six times out of ten. You’re never going to be right nine times out of ten.” - Peter Lynch
Trickle into the Apex for BTCThe highlighted red apex is the path likely for BTC in the coming days. The apex is around 6300.
Not a whole lot of trend momentum at all, so more flat-lining to be found (with the slight bearish slant from the slight RSI divergence)
Yawn! Wake me up on a break above the upper black bearish trend line
Still waiting for the bull seasonBTCUSD failed to break above 7.150. The bull run was short-lived. We are back into a demand zone (blue box) that worked multiple times this year. The apex of multiple triangles is closing.
A fair strategy would be to buy at the bottom of the blue box or closer to 6.200 USD - with a stop placed right below 5.900.
If 5.900 is breached, then we should consider shorting.
$CRON - Short Term BullishShort term bullish if technical break of long term apex with high vol
MACD curling
Entry @ $8.00
Stop loss @ $7.50
Exist @ 9.20
Ripple Made Another Triangle!? XRP Ripple looks like its making another, yes another, ABCDE Symmetrical Triangle. This would explain why I couldn't count 5 subwaves for our wave A in the correction. Triangles are 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 patterns. and then they break out.
We already hit the 0.236 Fibonacci retracment, and I suppose we could be finished and ready to break out. A 0.236 Fibonacci Retracement is very bullish as it only occurs about 15% of the time. And it wouldn't be so unreasonable as our Wave 2 retraced more then 78.6% of Wave 1.
Technically symmetrical triangles can break either way, so be careful with a stop loss below the apex of the triangle if you are choosing to go long.
It's a pretty good Risk:Reward Setup. Even to conservatively target $0.95, which is just over the local high, we have over a 3:1!
Get ready for some action in Ripple because we're right at the apex!!
I hope that you enjoyed my analysis. Please always remember that targets are not set in stone and to always practice proper risk management! Please like and comment any questions you may have below. Happy trading!!
Bullpennant has morphed into full ascending triangle at its apexNo longer a bull pennant but instead a full on ascending triangle. It has found strong resistance at the top trendline of the triangle and needs to close above 8960 for a breakout. We have cut above the psychological resistance of 9,000 a few times now and if we can close above 9,000 and flip 9,000 from resistance to support then I belie the bull run will then only jsut be getting started...a breakout up form this ascending triangle should give us enough bull momentum to break above the current 1 day charts rising wedge we are in which is the biggest threat the bears have in the arsenal right now to halt this bull run. the 8960 resistance is a resistance we've met several times in the past if you look to the left of the chart so it will definitely be a challenging one to surpass but for now probability still favors a break upwards and thus so do I...while at the same time I am completely prepared for the exact opposite outcome. Stay vigilant, make smart stop losses and you choose your own path because this is not meant to be financial advice. Thanks for reading and good luck!
BTC reaching the apex of falling wedge; Adam & Eve still in playA quick update we are reaching a pivotal point as we approach the apex of this falling wedge as well as continuing to follow this potential eve bottom quite precisely. You can see here on the 1 day chart we are currently up outside the falling wedge on the current 1 day candle...like the previous 1day candle, it is finding strong resistance at the t line(in yellow) However this candle has a double reinforced support of both the eve bottoms trendline, and the 23.60% fibonacci retracement line(in red at 6680). This retracement line has served as both very strong support and very strong resistance over the last week or so as the eve bottom has been slowly rounding out and making its turn back upwards, and now that we are above that fib line as well as having it double reinforced with the eve trendline, should prove to provide enough support to keep the price action up out of the falling wedge...which should result in a big bullish volume spike in the coming few days. It could by chance drop back down into the falling wedge and wait until closer to the end of it to breakout which would invalidate and eve bottom but instead likely result in a more traditional standard double bottom considering the falling wedge ends at the exact same pricepoint as february's low....either way we have good odds in favor of one of the 2 double bottoms so I will side with that probability while at the same time of course being prepared for the exact opposite outcome should it occur, where if we dip and stay below 6400 we can trigger a massive head and shoulders that could take us down as far as the 3,000s(less likely in my opinion) If we can find a way to close above the tline on this current candle I'd say we will likely see a big bullish volume spike to confirm the breakout on the follow up candle..for now we shall wait and see.
Reference Chart for 3 Apex variants, Bolli's, DMI, and VPVR This chart shows 3 variant apex points.
HOW TO USE THIS CHART:
A. Triangles 1, 2, and 3 can be used to identify potential support and resistance levels.
B. Bolli's serve as good reference point to plot feasibility of intra, day or swing targets, up or down, within 1d ATR.
Is your target within these ranges? Confirm logic before you 100x from price at the edge of upper or lower bands.
C. Volume Profile Visible Range on far right to show price where majority of market is trading, and short or long interest at each level. Note VPVR will only show volume of positions on visible candles .
D.Use DMI to judge strength of up or downward momentum based on -Di or Di .
Di (- or +) above value of 25 is considered trending.
E. ADX is blue line within DMI, and can be used to confirm trend strength identified with Di. Note: ADX measures the strength of the trend and tends to go down before reversal. It measures the strength of the CURRENT trend [i.e. ADX at 50 can confirm strength of down or up move. Invest in yourself, do your homework.
www.tradingview.com(DMI)
Don't be fooled in to thinking that money only flows if you can hit the tops or the bottoms.
Trade the range and secure profit on every run up or down.
THE MARKET WILL NEVER RUN OUT OF ENTRIES.
Appreciate the risk.
Litecoin(LTC) Update : Double Truncation & Double Apex.
In a recent movement of LTC/BTC, I observed double truncation pattern and double apex pattern(To say 'Double' is may not be a good word in this situation, but is used for emphasize the pattern is repeated.).
In the chart above, Apex pattern was shown after Truncation pattern, and now the LTC is moving towards the 'e' point on the second Apex. As showed in a first Apex, LTC price can be droped a littlebit more than the 'e' point but price will be rising up soon.
* Personal opinion
I think the price of bitcoin in the current cryptocurrency market is working like the stock price index. Frankly, I do not like this situation but the market movement is very strongly related with the bitcoin price and is true. So, when I analize about altcoin I always try to analyze it through Altcoin / BTC charts.
EthereumClassic(ETC) Update : Viewpoint of Apex pattern.As like as other altcoins, ETC is on a tough price trip. During in few months of declining, the price tried to rise in a while but it soon turn to downtrend again. In this confusion, I have assumed several scenarios for future trend of ETC. And today I suggest a scenario, 'Viewpoint in Apex pattern'.
In this 'Viewpoint in Apex pattern' scenario, ETC is on a 'c' wave. I think the 'c' wave is not completed, and ETC price can go lower lows in a few days. When the price approaches the 'c' point, the MACD line will start curving up.
The important thing in this scenario is that the price trip can be more boring than you think. The chart calculates ETC price trips per day per candle. And the 'e' point at which Apex is expected to end (where the new trend starts) is about the end of June. Given the amplitude is getting smaller, a change in price for about three months may not meet your expectations.