APHA remains the weakest name in the sectorAPHA confirmed the daily bear flag, while the rest of the sector is still holding key support - but the bulls don't have my confidence it will hold.
APHA key levels first thing tomorrow is the low of today, and the high of the recent daily bounce.
S: 11.86
R: 13.75
APHQF
APH hourly equilibrium on watchThe oversold bounce is starting to feel toppy with a bearish reversal candle on the daily and declining volume. The high of the day rejected from the 20MA and we're in an hourly equilibrium now to determine if we're going to see bounce continuation or set a higher low on the daily chart.
I would also look towards Canopy for clues on how the sector leader breaks.
Key levels for hourly eq:
S: 14.65
R: 15.54
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and affects every stock you own.
Aphria sees the largest bounceQuick updates tonight.
APH saw a 12% bounce from the low of the day today and after the first 30 minutes, gave a whole lot of nothing. Aphria may have enjoyed the largest bounce today, it remains positioned weaker than Canopy heading into tomorrow. We spent most of the day inside an hourly equilibrium that has yet to set a higher low compared to the low of consolidation, where as Canopy has clearly set that higher support level.
The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it.
Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag.
Key levels:
Support: 13.00
Resistance: 13.85, 13.95
If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 16.77.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
Aphria nears daily oversoldAPH followed Canopy Growth's lead breaking its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down over 17% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back almost 70% of the run up from August 14th to legalization over the past 10 trading days.
Where we stand, Aphria has a lack of support here. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce.
Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future?
RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels:
Daily - 34
4hr - 28
1hr - 23
If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts.
If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aphria, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for APH.
I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows
Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation
Support: low of day 12.60, 11.98, 11.68
Resistance: 16.77, 17.33
After 17.33 there is a lack of resistance to 20.69 though I don't anticipate we bounce that hard.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
APH in a 4hr wide equilibrium APH is in a similar boat to Canopy right now, stuck inside a 4hr equilibrium. The range here is 18%, over twice as large as the range Canopy finds itself inside. We are seeing the MACD start to curl upwards for the first time in quite a while, and we are patiently waiting for our higher low to be set relative to 14.11.
APH has also bounced off of the golden pocket retrace from the low of its August consolidation to its recent highs. In my opinion, this chart is just waiting (along with the rest of the sector) for Canopy to make a break of it's right range.
Key levels for Monday
Support: 16.77
Resistance: 14.11
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
APH well positioned for a sector-wide bull breakAPH is also in a 4hr equilibrium, the break of which will give us clues to either further sell off or to the low of the dump being in.
I'm looking at support of 14.11 and resistance of 17.33. Our lower high may be set at 16.77 but I'm not yet convinced by this.
A break of 14.11 and we're looking down to 13.76. A break of resistance and we have a lack of resistance on the daily up until 20.69. Watch the Middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart as a likely profit target, as price tends to reject the first test of this level. That's currently at 17.69. Update that level each day.
The daily setup here is a bear flag, I need to see a bull break of the equilibrium to negate the bear flag. The bull volume does stand out on Aphria, however the direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH searching higher low in daily equilibriumTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart. APH looks more and more toppy with each passing week with bear volume standing out and upper wicks of profit taking. Bulls were barely able to break the high of last week. Our weekly lower high is now set at 20.96 and the must hold level to maintain the weekly uptrend is 15.76 doublebottom. A break of that level would put us into a weekly downtrend but we are nowhere near at risk of that right now. We do have a longer term trendline crossing our price level just above our weekly support level next week; something to watch if we do fade down to test that low.
"So, what happened this past week?"
This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week.
I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Monday we saw APH with the weaker move out of the names I follow. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. The low of Wednesday is our daily key level. APH has not yet lost that level, making it a stronger chart than Canopy which broke that level on Friday.
The APH daily chart confirmed the bearish reversal candle from Thursday and rejected from our daily RSI resistance line. The MACD is still weak and the bear volume stands out when compared to the bull volume. I am anticipating a higher low above 16.77 but in the current setup if that level breaks, we would initiate a daily downtrend with a daily lower high and lower low. We have the daily MA50 lining up with that support level; update that line daily. On any bounce I would look for a lower high compared to 20.69. Let's zoom in for more detail.
Looking into the hourly chart we see an hourly bear flag setup. Friday we bottomed out when CGC hit hourly oversold and the sector saw very weak bounces on low volume when compared to the bear volume on the dump. Confirming that bear flag by breaking 17.78 means the bulls have not yet found their 4hr higher low and we will continue to look down towards 16.77 support.
If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. While the weekly trend on APH is not yet at risk Canopy will be testing that level on Monday. This signal from the sector leader gives you an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts.
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For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH is a clear laggard, though chart remains bullishAPH saw a higher open this morning and broke the daily inside bar bullish but remains within its hourly equilibrium. The daily bull flag setup remains as the range gets tighter and tighter. MACD is curling up and we want to see a clearer spike tomorrow and increasing volume.
Bulls are trying to hold 19.79 as an hourly support but we're far from convinced that's our higher low. Next level is 19.62 and 19.32. It would be a red flag to break those levels, but 19.00 is must hold to remain within this hourly equilibrium.
Resistances is then 20.18 to break the equilibrium bullish. Bulls will then look up to test our recent highs 20.50, 20.70, and 21.58.
APH is a clear laggard to CGC and ACB that are at all time highs in full on breakout mode. I'll be watching to see if some profits from those names start to cycle into APH to give an extended run here.
Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off.
Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH holding a daily bullflag into legalization weekAfter a huge move on reports of an investment by a tobacco company, APH is trading in a 4hr equilibrium with multiple daily inside bars. This is one of my favourite setups. As expected we have decreasing volume on this consolidation.
The range to watch is today's range; Break 19.00 bearish or break 20.00 bullish.
Note that 19.00 would not break the equilibrium bearish because we haven't set a convincing higher low above 18.61. For now, that remains our key level
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH hourly equilibrium is early signal for daily bull flagAPH gave us a daily inside bar today as one could expect after such a volatile day yesterday. Our pattern is clearest on the 1hr chart as we see a tightening equilibrium. We have our lower high at 20.50 and the bulls are now searching for a higher low; a new base of support above 18.60. The daily chart is currently in a bull flag setup and to confirm the bulls will need to break this equilibrium and the high of yesterday 20.70 on increasing volume.
I might consider bottomfishing a lower high above 18.60 but weakness in the overall market may have me patient instead, and waiting on the sidelines for a break of this tightening hourly pattern.
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH tobacco rumours ignite a bull moveAPH had a solid move today on the back of a report of a potential investment from a tobacco company (yuck!). This is the most volume APH has ever seen, we we broke numerous resistances on the way up. There is no support here at these levels to be very careful if making any bullish entries.
Daily support is at 15.93. Key resistance is high of day 20.70, then 21.58.
We have to look at the 5min chart to find closer supports, and I see 19.54, 19.40, and then nothing until 17.19.
It's clear there were people trading yesterday on insider information, front loading for this move, where we saw the price run from 16.87 - 18.03 on very low volume while the rest of the sector was trading sideways at best. See below for yesterday's move, and compare the volume to the chart above and you can see the front loading taking place.
I did not swing a position because I am terrified to hold anything with the stock market dumping so aggressively. Tomorrow, I'm going to need to let the range establish itself first thing and wait for a break of that. Supports are too far away right now for me to be comfortable to play off of.
Congrats to the bulls - I missed the whole move but I'm happy for those of you who caught it. Just like that, we're approaching key resistances. After a 15% move today, we're only 20% away from all time highs!
For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
Best Cannabis Play - SPRWF - FIRE - Undervalued - Set to ExplodeI wanted to re-sound the alarm on this, other people have said this stock is undervalued, and I am going to repeat their findings, this stock is grossly undervalued compared to its peers.
Everyone has been going all in on Aurora Cannabis, Canopy Growth, Aphria etc. Now is the time to trim your positions in the bigger cannabis companies and rotate it into Supreme Cannabis. Supreme has landed contracts with 6 provinces to supply liquor stores with their premium buds. Compared to Aurora who currently has 5 I believe (8-9 billion market cap). Supreme has been in production for approx. 12 months and has been fastest growing cannabis company of all time compared to other licensed producers growth rates. They achieved approx. 8 million in revenue first 12 months of production. Check their last 12 months news, its extremely impressive. Below are some notable findings.
"Supreme Cannabis signs supply agreement with Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries"
"Supreme Cannabis signs supply agreement with Alberta Gaming, liquor and Cannabis commission.
" Supreme Cannabis enters into MOU with British Columbia Liquor Distribution Board"
"Supreme Cannabis secures supply agreement for the Province of Ontario"
"Supreme Cannabis secures supply agreement with Nova Scotia Liquor and Prince Edward Island"
"Supreme Cannabis secures supply agreement with Tilray - 20 million
There supply capacity will balloon up to 50,000 KG in 2019. At $6000 per KG, they will be bringing in nearly $300 million revenue from max capacity.
Based on their current valuation of 400-500 million - Supreme Cannabis is grossly undervalued compared to its peers.
I predict a monster run from this stock over the next 12 months. I think Supreme has the ability to hit 10 per share in the right conditions.
APH chart remains the weakest in the sectorAPH continues to show weakness on the daily timeframe and is still a potential bear flag setup. We were unable to break the high of Thursday but broke the low, continuing to test down towards that very key 15.76 support. To negate that bear flag setup, bulls have to hold that level and break convincingly above 17.28 with big volume and follow through. If they can do that, we will look for a lower high on the daily chart below 18.69.
The biggest comfort the bulls have right now is volume is not increasing on the way down towards support, but even that isn't giving too much comfort at this point.
Zooming into the 4hr chart we see a clear downtrend pattern of lower highs and lower lows. We are not convinced 15.93 is our new higher low until that first resistance level 17.28 can be broken. We're starting to see the first signs of a bullish MACD cross but it's a weak move right now, and I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt whatsoever.
I like APH but this is one I'm going to be patient with. There is no sense playing the weakest chart in the sector just because I like the company. I'm going to protect my profits by letting the trade come to me instead of trying to catch a falling knife.
APH a convincing bear flag setupAPH has a similar setup to CGC and WEED but is far weaker; Canopy has seen enough of a bounce and a moderate enough pullback to potentially see continuation of the oversold bounce, but Aphria doubletopped at the high of yesterday (breaking by only 2 pennies) and had a much more aggressive pullback today. Both Canopy and Aphria are potential bear flag patterns on the daily, but when you look into the 4hr charts of each name you can see why the bear flag is more likely to confirm on Aphria than it is on Canopy.
Key daily levels - break 15.76 support to confirm bearflag, break 17.28 resistance convincingly with volume to negate the bearflag
Zooming into the 4hr chart you can see the much weaker bounce and the much stronger pullback that makes this setup much weaker than Canopy
Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH triple bottom of support to watchAPH once again held key support, making 15.76 a very important range to watch in the coming days and weeks. Bullish reversal candle on the daily, and a daily inside bar, bulls want first thing tomorrow to break the high of the day 17.26. There's a support at 16.68 but price hasn't bounced enough from that level to convince us that's the new hourly higher low.
Anything under 18.69 is a daily lower high and we would anticipate a daily higher low once this bounce tops out. This bounce doesn't change the fact we're in a daily downtrend here, this is nothing more than an hourly oversold bounce at this point.
I do see some potential hidden bullish RSI divergence but it's not as convincing as CGC/WEED divergence so we will have to keep an eye on this potential clue.
The range to watch on the daily is is is 15.76 - 18.69, with a close watch on 17.26 first thing tomorrow morning to ensure the bulls can see continuation.
By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
APH dumps and holds next support - barelyAPH gapped down today, filled the gap, then turned around and never looked back. I held a short most of the day today and covered it a little early just under $16.30. Support at 15.76 held by two pennies. APH saw such a significantly bearish day because after losing 18.57 last week, the next support was 15.76 - a full 18% below.
We're at the point where we can start looking for an hourly oversold bounce, but APH is unlikely to bounce here without sector leader CGC bouncing as well. CGC cooled off RSI on all timeframes at the end of the day and in after hours and is sitting currently in an hourly bear-flag setup, and can easily see another solid red day tomorrow. If that's the case, I don't expect the APH bulls to be able to bounce significantly even though it's RSI is much more beaten up.
Increasing bear volume on the daily has the bulls salivating at the opportunity to play the bounce, but smart traders are sitting on their hands very patiently waiting for the setup to come to them rather than trying to catch a falling knife.
On a bounce, anything under 18.69 will be a lower high on the daily chart.
APH bears in full controlAPH bulls had a gift this morning with a gap-up open breaking the hourly downtrend, and re-confirmed the hourly downtrend by giving back the entire move back, barely holding the low of Friday by 5c. The bulls couldn't even muster a small push up after opening bell, leaving the bears in full control and the opening price as the high of the day.
The range I'm watching is 17.37 - 20.57. If the low can hold I am anticipating a lower high on the daily roughtly in the $19.50 area at best, unless some news catalyst propells us higher.
Other than 17.37 there is absolutely no support on the chart until 15.76; the loss of that level, would break the weekly uptrend and be a red flag for investors with a much longer term mindset. I don't anticipate a straight drop to there and to break it, the most likely scenario would be to find a new support, bounce and set a daily lower high, then come down to test that support region.
Keep an eye on CGC, 1% away from a bear break on the daily chart. I've seen APH drop several dollars in a span of minutes before and it's already the weakest of the major sector names. The correlation to the sector leader, CGC, breaking bear will definitely favour the APH bears.
APH in price discovery, looking for a new support levelAfter breaking its daily uptrend, APH bulls showed up Friday looking to set a daily lower high compared to 20.57. I'm expecting a back-test of the daily MA20, currently at 19.51 in the current configuration. I don't like any bull entries in APH right now based on the daily chart, but if you zoom into the hourly we see the bulls trend trying to change the trend, looking for a higher low and then a break of 18.54. If playing that hourly chart you will likely not want to hold this position for more than a night or two, but in my opinion there are better setups out there. It's worth noting the low daily bull volume.
As one of the weaker charts, correlation to the sector leader will favour the APH bears and I expect further downside should Canopy break bearish from its daily equilibrium. They daily range right now is 17.37 - 20.57, but if SCYB continues to sell off APH shares we will look for further downside after this move tops out.
If you have a long term position in APH and don't like trading it as much, consider this. Stopping out on the break of our key 18.57 support saw a 6.5% move to the downside, meaning you could have bought back 6.5% more shares with the same capital. That's one way you can compound profits, even if you don't want to watch the charts throughout each and every day.
APH coming under intense selling pressure after SCYB TransactionAPH was by far the weakest name in the sector today, breaking $18.57 support and signalling a major red flag for the bulls, putting the chart into a daily downtrend with a lower high and a lower low. $17.76 support broke as well, and the last level we have to play off of is the low of the oversold bounce $15.76. APH rejected on open from daily EMA4 & EMA8.
The price is now entering an area with a significant lack of price volume support, and we could easily see the price move down very quickly to below $17, and perhaps to as low as $16.00. There's significant support at $15.76 so a bottom-fishing play could be an option, but now that we're trending downward I would not be holding onto that position for too long.
Why was APH the weakest name today?
Today Scythian Biosciences closed the sale of its Latin American and Carribean Assets to APH in an all stock transaction - 48,849,218 shares of APH. Clarus Securities acted as the financial advisor in this deal. (source: finance.yahoo.com ).
Clarus sold a single transaction of 500,000 shares today, I'm speculating that Clarus is cashing in some of those shares on the open market for cash on behalf of SCYB. There could be further selling pressure ahead if they intend to cash out more shares on the open market.
Resistances are 18.24 and 18.53, support all the way down at 15.76
APH in the same tightening pattern seen across the sectorAPH is in a tightening pattern on the daily and the afternoon bounce today gave us an hourly lower high, and a new resistance to play off of, 19.88.
Low of the day was 18.78, this level is important but the key support for me is 18.57.
If we can break 19.88 and hold 18.57, that significantly shifts the odds that APH can break this daily tightening range bullish.
Watch all the major names, as I expect them all to break the same way. It will be worth noting which one breaks first.
Aphria move is closeAphria is currently consolidating in the apex of a bull pennant. The drop in volume is in accordance to a consolidation phase. The rsi is hovering above the 50 level and slightly curling upwards. I suspect a break out to higher levels. The EOM is slightly above -.0005. As of recently , every time the EOM is in the -.0004 to -.0005 levels, a rebound ensues. The triangle has already been touched 4 times, so a major move should be in effect soon after the bell rings on monday. The blue dotted line represents the 10 MA. A move above it, will be a step in the direction of a bullish breakout. In an enviroment where constant news flows are being pumped into the market, caution is warranted. A bullish break will set us up for new all time highs, if the latest high is broken. A break below the latest sell off will have us reaching the .236 fib level. Happy Trading
