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APHRIA

The Roller Coaster: Getting High (and Low) with AphriaAs with many of the TSX equities, Aphria has been swinging like crazy in November. Volatility is where the money is made, so let's take a quick look at some opportunities that our favorite marijuana stock has presented. Here are three trades picked up by our AllTradeSignals Volume Pressure Gauge over the past couple of weeks: Trade #1 - 30% gain in 8 days Trade #2 - 3.5% gain in 30 minutes (!) Trade #3 - 8.5% gain in 1 day (!) Don't be like some of the crazy folks on /r/weedstocks -- be sure to set trailing stops and stop losses when you invest in volatile equities like this one! Interested in the AllTradeSignals Volume Pressure Gauge? Get in touch with us here on TradingView!
ALong
by BlockLevels
APHA surges on Jeff Sessions' ResignationBig move today following a tweet buy President Trump that he has accepted the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions twitter.com This came after a clear hourly bear break across the sector singling some daily consolidation was coming, but this breaking news clearly sidetracked that plan and delayed consolidation for at least a little while. I am closely watching for the hourly trend to change as the daily chart is very over extended right now Key levels for tomorrow: S: 16.03 R: 17.33
A
by McGuireTO
Aphria sees the largest bounceQuick updates tonight. APH saw a 12% bounce from the low of the day today and after the first 30 minutes, gave a whole lot of nothing. Aphria may have enjoyed the largest bounce today, it remains positioned weaker than Canopy heading into tomorrow. We spent most of the day inside an hourly equilibrium that has yet to set a higher low compared to the low of consolidation, where as Canopy has clearly set that higher support level. The end of the day saw SPY with big bull move finishing up near the high of the day on the strength of both the tech sector and financial sector, while Canadian MJ was unable to derive any momentum from the this move. That does give some reason for concern with bulls being so close to resistance but unable to break it. Tomorrow first thing the bulls want to break our two hourly resistances in order to see bounce continuation. Failure to do so a second time would be a red flag. Key levels: Support: 13.00 Resistance: 13.85, 13.95 If the bulls find the momentum to break this range and see continuation on the hourly bounce, we would look for a 4hr lower high compared to 16.77. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
A
by McGuireTO
5
Aphria nears daily oversoldAPH followed Canopy Growth's lead breaking its 4hr equilibrium bearish, and shortly later confirmed the daily bear flag, dumping the rest of the day closing down over 17% in one of the most stand-out bearish days this sector has seen. There is no doubt in my mind this weakness is in large part to the overall stock market dumping for the past four weeks, so be sure to keep an eye on the correlation to SPY. We've now given back almost 70% of the run up from August 14th to legalization over the past 10 trading days. Where we stand, Aphria has a lack of support here. Regular readers know we long ago lost the daily and weekly uptrends. The daily RSI is approaching oversold, and is the lowest level it's been since August 14th. I'm now anticipating an oversold bounce. Why do I anticipate a bounce in the very near future? RSI levels on multiple timeframes are currently at or near historical bounce levels: Daily - 34 4hr - 28 1hr - 23 If you did not stop out on one of the bear breaks over the past two weeks, now isn't the time you want to sell your position. Instead, you probably want to wait for a bounce to get underway, as we are likely to see at least a couple days of follow-through. Of course, if your mindset is to hold your position for years, then stop checking the price every day or you will drive yourself crazy. In my opinion, the bounce will not start until the CGC bounce starts....which will not start until the S&P bounce starts. If you are one of the people who have asked me over the past couple months about a good time to buy Aphria, these conditions are ideal for starting to SLOWLY scale into a long term entry you plan to hold for years. Just be sure not to invest all your money at once. Keep in mind we have no more upcoming catalysts for the sector, and the correlation to the S&P500 could mean several months of continued downside for APH. I'm looking at the 4hr chart right now for our levels. We remain in a downtrend with clear lower highs and lower lows Key levels to watch for trend change/continuation Support: low of day 12.60, 11.98, 11.68 Resistance: 16.77, 17.33 After 17.33 there is a lack of resistance to 20.69 though I don't anticipate we bounce that hard. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market and the analysis I do on SPY. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market has been showing significant weakness over the past four weeks. This correlation affects every stock you own.
A
by McGuireTO
APH in a 4hr wide equilibrium APH is in a similar boat to Canopy right now, stuck inside a 4hr equilibrium. The range here is 18%, over twice as large as the range Canopy finds itself inside. We are seeing the MACD start to curl upwards for the first time in quite a while, and we are patiently waiting for our higher low to be set relative to 14.11. APH has also bounced off of the golden pocket retrace from the low of its August consolidation to its recent highs. In my opinion, this chart is just waiting (along with the rest of the sector) for Canopy to make a break of it's right range. Key levels for Monday Support: 16.77 Resistance: 14.11 _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks.
A
by McGuireTO
APH well positioned for a sector-wide bull breakAPH is also in a 4hr equilibrium, the break of which will give us clues to either further sell off or to the low of the dump being in. I'm looking at support of 14.11 and resistance of 17.33. Our lower high may be set at 16.77 but I'm not yet convinced by this. A break of 14.11 and we're looking down to 13.76. A break of resistance and we have a lack of resistance on the daily up until 20.69. Watch the Middle Bollinger Band on the daily chart as a likely profit target, as price tends to reject the first test of this level. That's currently at 17.69. Update that level each day. The daily setup here is a bear flag, I need to see a bull break of the equilibrium to negate the bear flag. The bull volume does stand out on Aphria, however the direction CGC breaks will likely dictate how the rest of the sector breaks. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
APH searching higher low in daily equilibriumTaking a different approach today, starting with the long term weekly chart. APH looks more and more toppy with each passing week with bear volume standing out and upper wicks of profit taking. Bulls were barely able to break the high of last week. Our weekly lower high is now set at 20.96 and the must hold level to maintain the weekly uptrend is 15.76 doublebottom. A break of that level would put us into a weekly downtrend but we are nowhere near at risk of that right now. We do have a longer term trendline crossing our price level just above our weekly support level next week; something to watch if we do fade down to test that low. "So, what happened this past week?" This is a question a few people have asked me in person and online over the past 24 hours. Let's go back to the daily chart to look at the setup we had going into last week. I've annotated the levels we were watching last weekend. Monday we saw APH with the weaker move out of the names I follow. In almost every idea I've published over the past few weeks I've been reminding people that the sector has run over 100% in just a few weeks, and that was neither normal nor sustainable. Therefore, we were looking for a sell-the-news reaction to legalization. I was expecting that Wednesday and we got that on Tuesday instead, in the form of a gap up open, a volume climax and a bearish reversal candle. The low of Wednesday is our daily key level. APH has not yet lost that level, making it a stronger chart than Canopy which broke that level on Friday. The APH daily chart confirmed the bearish reversal candle from Thursday and rejected from our daily RSI resistance line. The MACD is still weak and the bear volume stands out when compared to the bull volume. I am anticipating a higher low above 16.77 but in the current setup if that level breaks, we would initiate a daily downtrend with a daily lower high and lower low. We have the daily MA50 lining up with that support level; update that line daily. On any bounce I would look for a lower high compared to 20.69. Let's zoom in for more detail. Looking into the hourly chart we see an hourly bear flag setup. Friday we bottomed out when CGC hit hourly oversold and the sector saw very weak bounces on low volume when compared to the bear volume on the dump. Confirming that bear flag by breaking 17.78 means the bulls have not yet found their 4hr higher low and we will continue to look down towards 16.77 support. If you're the type of person looking years out and holding, you don't care much about the last half of this post but you are very interested in the weekly chart above. While the weekly trend on APH is not yet at risk Canopy will be testing that level on Monday. This signal from the sector leader gives you an opportunity to stop out and look to reload, for example, 10% more shares for 10% cheaper with the same amount of capital. That's one more way you can compound your gains on these positions even when we see consolidation on the longer term charts. _____ For anybody looking at any individual stock it is imperative to keep an eye on the overall market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to SPY market is very real and the market is showing significant weakness over the past three weeks with warning signs of further potential weakness potential into next week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
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by McGuireTO
APHRIA Inc: ProducerReentry price levels to watch Description Aphria Inc. produces and sells medical cannabis in Canada and internationally. The company offers sativa, indica, and hybrid medical marijuana products, as well as cannabis oils. It serves patients, health professionals, and veterans. The company sells its products through its online store or phones, as well as engages in the wholesale shipping of cannabis plant cuttings and dried buds to other licensed producers. The company calls itself one of the lowest cost producers of marijuana. In April 2018, their stock surged after the company announced that it had struck a deal to sell its products through the online site of Shoppers Drug Mart, a major Canadian pharmacy chain. News: U.S. tobacco giant Altria Group Inc. (115 billion market cap), offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, is in talks to acquire an equity stake in Canadian cannabis grower Aphria Inc., multiple sources say. Current Total Square Ft: 100,000 Future Total Square Ft: 1,000,000 Location: Leamington, Ontario, Canada Website: aphria.com Number of Employees: 300 Market Cap: 3.556B Ave Volume: 1,689,963
AShort
by Charts_and_Such_1
1
APH is a clear laggard, though chart remains bullishAPH saw a higher open this morning and broke the daily inside bar bullish but remains within its hourly equilibrium. The daily bull flag setup remains as the range gets tighter and tighter. MACD is curling up and we want to see a clearer spike tomorrow and increasing volume. Bulls are trying to hold 19.79 as an hourly support but we're far from convinced that's our higher low. Next level is 19.62 and 19.32. It would be a red flag to break those levels, but 19.00 is must hold to remain within this hourly equilibrium. Resistances is then 20.18 to break the equilibrium bullish. Bulls will then look up to test our recent highs 20.50, 20.70, and 21.58. APH is a clear laggard to CGC and ACB that are at all time highs in full on breakout mode. I'll be watching to see if some profits from those names start to cycle into APH to give an extended run here. Keep walking your stop losses up. We're in a euphoric bull run and we want to protect our profits from any sudden sell-off. Also keep in mind the correlation to the overall market. SPY has its second daily inside bar to watch the range of tomorrow, and while a bearish end of day didn't affect the mj sector today, we have seen countless times where it has. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
APH holding a daily bullflag into legalization weekAfter a huge move on reports of an investment by a tobacco company, APH is trading in a 4hr equilibrium with multiple daily inside bars. This is one of my favourite setups. As expected we have decreasing volume on this consolidation. The range to watch is today's range; Break 19.00 bearish or break 20.00 bullish. Note that 19.00 would not break the equilibrium bearish because we haven't set a convincing higher low above 18.61. For now, that remains our key level By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
5
APH hourly equilibrium is early signal for daily bull flagAPH gave us a daily inside bar today as one could expect after such a volatile day yesterday. Our pattern is clearest on the 1hr chart as we see a tightening equilibrium. We have our lower high at 20.50 and the bulls are now searching for a higher low; a new base of support above 18.60. The daily chart is currently in a bull flag setup and to confirm the bulls will need to break this equilibrium and the high of yesterday 20.70 on increasing volume. I might consider bottomfishing a lower high above 18.60 but weakness in the overall market may have me patient instead, and waiting on the sidelines for a break of this tightening hourly pattern. For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
2
APH tobacco rumours ignite a bull moveAPH had a solid move today on the back of a report of a potential investment from a tobacco company (yuck!). This is the most volume APH has ever seen, we we broke numerous resistances on the way up. There is no support here at these levels to be very careful if making any bullish entries. Daily support is at 15.93. Key resistance is high of day 20.70, then 21.58. We have to look at the 5min chart to find closer supports, and I see 19.54, 19.40, and then nothing until 17.19. It's clear there were people trading yesterday on insider information, front loading for this move, where we saw the price run from 16.87 - 18.03 on very low volume while the rest of the sector was trading sideways at best. See below for yesterday's move, and compare the volume to the chart above and you can see the front loading taking place. I did not swing a position because I am terrified to hold anything with the stock market dumping so aggressively. Tomorrow, I'm going to need to let the range establish itself first thing and wait for a break of that. Supports are too far away right now for me to be comfortable to play off of. Congrats to the bulls - I missed the whole move but I'm happy for those of you who caught it. Just like that, we're approaching key resistances. After a 15% move today, we're only 20% away from all time highs! For anybody looking at any stock keep an eye on the market. The correlation of every individual name and sector to the overrall market is real and the market saw an all-out dump today, having now given back over 3 months of gains in the past week. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
6
APH: A simple, first time analysis.As can be seen, after the slight downtrend, the 9MA has surpassed and overtaken the 18 and 50MA. The 9MA is also on pace to cross the 200MA for the first time since the middle of September when charted on an hourly basis. Something else to consider is the slight bullish divergence which confirmed the downtrend losing steam as was indicative of the increase in security price around the 5th of October. MACD also confirming momentum for the Bulls during this period. I will be following this stock closely in the coming days with earnings being released prior to market open on Friday.
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by WolfofWaterStreet
1
APHRIA - Technical AnalysisDear Traders, Today I'm having a look at APH, As we can see we had a retracement going on for a week, and it's price now hit the 200 EMA on the 4H chart. this happened before and it created a nice bounce. The question is, will this support level hold again? My guess? Yes. Look at that continuing BUllish divergence in the MACD, this shows us something will happen soon, and it's bullish. Perfect entry point would be the 200 ema. APHRIA NEWS: Aphria To Announce First Quarter Results On October 12, 2018 => Keep on eye on the charts that day, good news could bring more vol. - Source: web.tmxmoney.com ABOUT APH: Aphria Inc is licensed to produce and sell medical marijuana, including dried cannabis and cannabis oil, as a Licensed Producer under the provisions of the ACMPR.
ALong
by Raw_Blitz
APH chart remains the weakest in the sectorAPH continues to show weakness on the daily timeframe and is still a potential bear flag setup. We were unable to break the high of Thursday but broke the low, continuing to test down towards that very key 15.76 support. To negate that bear flag setup, bulls have to hold that level and break convincingly above 17.28 with big volume and follow through. If they can do that, we will look for a lower high on the daily chart below 18.69. The biggest comfort the bulls have right now is volume is not increasing on the way down towards support, but even that isn't giving too much comfort at this point. Zooming into the 4hr chart we see a clear downtrend pattern of lower highs and lower lows. We are not convinced 15.93 is our new higher low until that first resistance level 17.28 can be broken. We're starting to see the first signs of a bullish MACD cross but it's a weak move right now, and I'm not giving the bulls any benefit of the doubt whatsoever. I like APH but this is one I'm going to be patient with. There is no sense playing the weakest chart in the sector just because I like the company. I'm going to protect my profits by letting the trade come to me instead of trying to catch a falling knife.
A
by McGuireTO
APH a convincing bear flag setupAPH has a similar setup to CGC and WEED but is far weaker; Canopy has seen enough of a bounce and a moderate enough pullback to potentially see continuation of the oversold bounce, but Aphria doubletopped at the high of yesterday (breaking by only 2 pennies) and had a much more aggressive pullback today. Both Canopy and Aphria are potential bear flag patterns on the daily, but when you look into the 4hr charts of each name you can see why the bear flag is more likely to confirm on Aphria than it is on Canopy. Key daily levels - break 15.76 support to confirm bearflag, break 17.28 resistance convincingly with volume to negate the bearflag Zooming into the 4hr chart you can see the much weaker bounce and the much stronger pullback that makes this setup much weaker than Canopy Be aware there is market correlation between the mj sector with the S&P500, and keep in mind that SPY lost the daily uptrend today. It's often said that high tides raise all boats; likewise, low tides can beach all ships. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO
APH triple bottom of support to watchAPH once again held key support, making 15.76 a very important range to watch in the coming days and weeks. Bullish reversal candle on the daily, and a daily inside bar, bulls want first thing tomorrow to break the high of the day 17.26. There's a support at 16.68 but price hasn't bounced enough from that level to convince us that's the new hourly higher low. Anything under 18.69 is a daily lower high and we would anticipate a daily higher low once this bounce tops out. This bounce doesn't change the fact we're in a daily downtrend here, this is nothing more than an hourly oversold bounce at this point. I do see some potential hidden bullish RSI divergence but it's not as convincing as CGC/WEED divergence so we will have to keep an eye on this potential clue. The range to watch on the daily is is is 15.76 - 18.69, with a close watch on 17.26 first thing tomorrow morning to ensure the bulls can see continuation. By the way, I do analysis on the entire sector across all the mj charts I publish. If you're not looking at all the names I talk about, you're not getting the full sector-wide analysis. Follow me to get updates when I publish ideas and pay attention to the mj names you typically don't look at too, so you can stay in the know and get the full picture.
A
by McGuireTO