APH bears in full controlAPH bulls had a gift this morning with a gap-up open breaking the hourly downtrend, and re-confirmed the hourly downtrend by giving back the entire move back, barely holding the low of Friday by 5c. The bulls couldn't even muster a small push up after opening bell, leaving the bears in full control and the opening price as the high of the day.
The range I'm watching is 17.37 - 20.57. If the low can hold I am anticipating a lower high on the daily roughtly in the $19.50 area at best, unless some news catalyst propells us higher.
Other than 17.37 there is absolutely no support on the chart until 15.76; the loss of that level, would break the weekly uptrend and be a red flag for investors with a much longer term mindset. I don't anticipate a straight drop to there and to break it, the most likely scenario would be to find a new support, bounce and set a daily lower high, then come down to test that support region.
Keep an eye on CGC, 1% away from a bear break on the daily chart. I've seen APH drop several dollars in a span of minutes before and it's already the weakest of the major sector names. The correlation to the sector leader, CGC, breaking bear will definitely favour the APH bears.
APHRIA
APH in price discovery, looking for a new support levelAfter breaking its daily uptrend, APH bulls showed up Friday looking to set a daily lower high compared to 20.57. I'm expecting a back-test of the daily MA20, currently at 19.51 in the current configuration. I don't like any bull entries in APH right now based on the daily chart, but if you zoom into the hourly we see the bulls trend trying to change the trend, looking for a higher low and then a break of 18.54. If playing that hourly chart you will likely not want to hold this position for more than a night or two, but in my opinion there are better setups out there. It's worth noting the low daily bull volume.
As one of the weaker charts, correlation to the sector leader will favour the APH bears and I expect further downside should Canopy break bearish from its daily equilibrium. They daily range right now is 17.37 - 20.57, but if SCYB continues to sell off APH shares we will look for further downside after this move tops out.
If you have a long term position in APH and don't like trading it as much, consider this. Stopping out on the break of our key 18.57 support saw a 6.5% move to the downside, meaning you could have bought back 6.5% more shares with the same capital. That's one way you can compound profits, even if you don't want to watch the charts throughout each and every day.
APH coming under intense selling pressure after SCYB TransactionAPH was by far the weakest name in the sector today, breaking $18.57 support and signalling a major red flag for the bulls, putting the chart into a daily downtrend with a lower high and a lower low. $17.76 support broke as well, and the last level we have to play off of is the low of the oversold bounce $15.76. APH rejected on open from daily EMA4 & EMA8.
The price is now entering an area with a significant lack of price volume support, and we could easily see the price move down very quickly to below $17, and perhaps to as low as $16.00. There's significant support at $15.76 so a bottom-fishing play could be an option, but now that we're trending downward I would not be holding onto that position for too long.
Why was APH the weakest name today?
Today Scythian Biosciences closed the sale of its Latin American and Carribean Assets to APH in an all stock transaction - 48,849,218 shares of APH. Clarus Securities acted as the financial advisor in this deal. (source: finance.yahoo.com ).
Clarus sold a single transaction of 500,000 shares today, I'm speculating that Clarus is cashing in some of those shares on the open market for cash on behalf of SCYB. There could be further selling pressure ahead if they intend to cash out more shares on the open market.
Resistances are 18.24 and 18.53, support all the way down at 15.76
Aphria move is closeAphria is currently consolidating in the apex of a bull pennant. The drop in volume is in accordance to a consolidation phase. The rsi is hovering above the 50 level and slightly curling upwards. I suspect a break out to higher levels. The EOM is slightly above -.0005. As of recently , every time the EOM is in the -.0004 to -.0005 levels, a rebound ensues. The triangle has already been touched 4 times, so a major move should be in effect soon after the bell rings on monday. The blue dotted line represents the 10 MA. A move above it, will be a step in the direction of a bullish breakout. In an enviroment where constant news flows are being pumped into the market, caution is warranted. A bullish break will set us up for new all time highs, if the latest high is broken. A break below the latest sell off will have us reaching the .236 fib level. Happy Trading
Aphria is in no trade ZoneAphria seems to be in consolidation. Currently, the 20 MA seems to be working as an immediate resistance. Judging from the weak bull volume and the recent run up, I would rather sit on the sidelines until a clear break ensues. Additionaly the rsi is starting to point downwards. I know many of us are excited about this sector and all of the acquisitions and interest from fortune 500 companies and international players, but in an extremely volatile sector, id suggest playing clear breaks and momentum trading. In the case where extremely bullish news is established, Aphria can make a quick turn around, rendering this analysis non applicable, and yes I will jump in without a question :) Happy trading
Trend Following APHI going to trend follow this stock based on 100MA. I measured the days price under the 100MA and above it and project that to future date which is 3rd week of December. Let see how it goes.
Aphria has to decideAphria appears to be in the final stages of a symmetrical triangle. A breakout is close to fruition. Although I am a optimistic in the long term, I am leaning to a breakdown here. The 50 MA (orange line) is hovering over the current price action, causing some resistance (reason #1). The Rsi, although low on the scale, seems to be turning lower which will indicate further selling pressure (reason #2). If you pay attention to the habits of the rsi in Aphria, you will realize that for the majority of the time, between every large oscillation, there is a smaller one formed in between (smaller one is forming and is currently pointing down). I am inclined to believe that the price action in the following days will be lower.
APHQF, Aphria INC. Possible lower levels to look at!Trying my best to keep things simple!
Were at the bottom of a wedge, just floating in no mans land. We have the 618 right above, and the 786 below equal distance.
On the 4 hour, you can see sell signals at the top of the wedge, creating the last selloff.
No buy signals in sight besides the more irrelevant smaller time frames, with the Ichimoku cloud directing bearish.
With the 786 level just right there below, Im lead to believe we will fall to that level into a wedge until the end of the year.
I do see a bounce coming this week on my yellow brick road, but will ultimately fall to the lower levels.
You can see momentum leading bearish as well, with the bolly bands tightening up month by month.
Long term this will always do great, but I try to play the bounces with no emotion!
Another level to be aware of is the $4.20 area, (ironic). Only if the 786 wedge fails to break out coming November!
Happy Trading, Debating, and Speculating! I want everyone to win!
APH - Inverse Head and Shoulder PatternAPH forming a Inverse head and Shoulder pattern to continue the bullish trend of Canadian MJ sector.
APH - NeutralCanadian weed stocks are in a weird spot right now. Any wiff of news will send them either way. Legalization has been stalled (naturally) by the Government until they can figure out how to properly capitalize on it and shut out most if not all private vendors. Watching closely...
Aphria Rocking and RollingAphria breaking out of downward channel, bouncing off support at $7.50. Buying volume looks good, and when there
are sell-offs it is on much lower volume. Breaking out of resistance and closing above $9.95 will be very good for the mid-term,
closing above $10 will break huge psychological barrier and probably lead to a nice run up long term. Aphria is a great
company, planning for the long-term beyond just hoping for nation-wide legalization in Canada later this year. They have a lot
of cash on hand, and continue to eye new opportunities both within Canada and abroad.
Aphria Rocking and Rolling over past couple daysAphria is breaking out of a downward channel and has repeatedly bounced off support in the $7.50 range. If we can close above 9.90 on the
4 hour chart, although there may be another couple of down candles I suspect a cup and handle will form and we will see price enter solid up trend with stronger buying volume. Aphria is one of the few profitable marijuana companies in Canada currently, with a ton of cash on hand to spend acquiring more valuable companies and property for production. I am very long on Aphria as there current business is not strictly dependent on recreational going live in Canada this year, and they have an eye towards international expansion.
BTC compared to Aphria (APH)I believe I have found a connection between Bitcoin and the MJ industry. When comparing BTC to APH I have found stunningly similar trends but Bitcoin seems top make the first move by almost a month. I have placed alphabetical reference points to show the comparison.
Since BTC seems to be ahead of APH by a month, I went ahead and placed the next trend line/target(G) based off of the most recent moves from BTC. I believe that if it follows this trend, then APH is looking at positive trend upward and a slight pullback in the month ahead.
Buy APH now and hold to target price G?
Will this trend continue in the future??
Aphria Long position #logbook #cannabis #stocks #daytrade Small Day Trade long position in play for APH. Looks to be breaking out here. Chart shows buy position, stop loss and take profit 1 and 2.
Aphria Get Ready to Load the BoatI am very Bullish long term on the Canadian MJ sector. I like the odds of a nice buying opportunity in the next couple weeks or so.
