Pre-Market Update 11/16/2022TLDR; I don't like where the price is now. We are close to the old highs before the last drop for many things.
My plan is to wait for a small drop or a small raise in the price before taking any further action.
I do have a fairly large concern with what the dollar will do and the overall strength it may have in the mid to long term future. Though there really isnt much to trade based off of more than what we can already see currently happening.
Appl short ranges: under 146.24 to 142.65 and 142.60 to 138.00
Appl long range: above 156 til 169
Appl currently: Im neutral
APPL
"The" Daily Market Update (Centralized)As I am permitted, this core idea will have a daily video update every day besides Saturday. These updates will ALL be videos in my usual format and each will be 'IDEAS' themselves: As opposed to a screenshot with words. This is key, because any Intra-Day update that I make in regards to that idea (same day update) will have the update within that idea. So clicking on that daily update may have more updates past the initial one.
The purpose of this is to further consolidate and reduce clutter that may build up over time and by doing so I hope that you can get an understanding of my thought process by quickly being able to refer to previous days, as well as having any comments/questions answered in one centralized location.
I believe I started (specifically) doing the regular daily updates from September 7th, so it only goes back that far as of now. I have done some here and there, but want to keep this idea as clean as possible for everyone.
Related Ideas linked below are some of my more important ideas that I often refer to.
I stream every weekday: 15 minutes before the market opens and at least 15 minutes after the market closes. I also stream Sundays 30 minutes before the Week candle Change on BTC.
Some other key information regarding TradingView Subscriptions:
1) I do not believe it is needed (for me) to be able to analyze and trade anymore, BUT it is key for going over old data to train and is HIGHLY worth considering when you want to take your trading to the next level. I may not continue with the Premium next year, but I will NEVER not have a TradingView Subscription; Just as I will never eat unhealthy food again. There are certain things you do not go back to. Being subscription-less is one of them.
2) If you feel comfortable analyzing and want to try new things, I HIGHLY recommend taking a look at the subscriptions levels and features, because on which you choose you can get access to many amazing features such as:
a) Volume Profiles (Horizontal Volume)
b) 20,000 bars worth of data
c) Intra-Day Replay (Very useful for accurate back-testing and training)
d) Multiple charts at once (Easier for me to compare movement to find correlations)
e) The ability to make video ideas.
In the spirit of being fair, I must mention one small drawback in regards to one feature of the premium plan. This is only in regards to anyone that streams regularly on TradingView and 9.9 times out of 10 will not apply to the average user. I explain an incredibly easy work around at the bottom, so make sure to check that out.
The "Premium Plan" allows your streams to be "saved indefinitely". This is the response I got and why I believe the streams are saved, but not available after you stream 50 more times (overwritten or hidden). Though until they are made available, if ever, they might as well not exist.
"I have double-checked this case with our tech team and they assigned a task to add the possibility to view the records of the past streams in the Profile.
Your ticket is tagged to the corresponding task so you will be notified in case of an update."
So it appears from the language used that the streams are saved, but are unavailable after 50 streams. I stream every day, so this is important to me. Maybe it will be important to you as well.
Work Around:
You can save your own recording to your pc when you stream and/or also multi-stream through Trading View to YouTube and Twitch. YouTube will turn your streams into Videos so that solves the issue of that; More or less. TradingView is my platform of choice, so I'd prefer all of the streams to be accessible on this platform and, through that, encourage more people to access this platform for data.
Apple bearish Till now the Apple has performed very strongly when compared to SPX and IXIC (Nasdaq). Most of the past bear markets have ended with Apple testing the 200 EMA on a weekly chart.. I think the Apple will underperform over the next few months and the stock will eventually bottom out between 80 and 90 which is below the weekly 200 EMA.
APPLE ON THE RISE (NEW)APPL remains in the downtrend however on 27 of October Apple is going to announce their earnings report which is expected to be positive therefore we expect the price to break above the downsloping resistance line and then pump towards our targets.
MACD has a bullish crossover which is also a point for bulls. More positive momentum is expected to appear.
How to trade:
take a long position if / when the price breaks above the downsloping trendline. You can wait for a retest of the trendline as a support which would be a confirmation of the potential short' term reversal.
Final target and take profit level are shown in the chart
good luck!
APPL Update 10/25/2022Right side: Day timeframe
Left Side: Week timeframe
Main point of the idea:
We have had 2 great starts to the market right above the 142.65 mark. Two days later, we started the day candle above 146.28 (the Day 200). With that in mind, the buy up was not surprising at all. As I always say, I am mainly concerned about where we start the trading day/candle.
The issue now is that we are back to where the actual resistance is (151.82-153.46. So there is a much greater chance for things to get sold back down. In other words, we are at the take profit spot.
A day candle starting back under 149.70 will most likely be a bad sign. Starting under 151.60 will look bad as well. But we will see.
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I will put out a video tomorrow. Its been tough not being somewhere I get both internet and amazing speeds. I am currently doing this by using my phone as a hotspot.
Sorry I have been away, the internet isn't up yet, but I should be able to upload a video tomorrow.
Where I am at has no internet, the family member I am taking care of has no internet and my other nearby family member had upload speeds of 3mbps.
For reference, before I came up to NY, I had 380 download and ~200-300 upload, so the 20 minute videos (~700MB/5600Mb) didn't take long at all to upload to TradingView. An actual progress bar would be nice as well so I know if my upload is even still going.
Market Update 10/5/22TIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
APPL Today's Movements 0:55
NASDAQ Quick 2:35
BTC Quick 3:43
DXY Being Weird 4:27
APPL Talking opening Targets 6:50
Possible VIX Concerns 11:30
USD/WTI 13:48
Hang Seng 16:28
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I will see you tomorrow at 9:30
Market Update 10/4/22TIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
BTC Update 0:20
APPL Today's Movements 5:04
APPL Talking Opening Targets 9:06
Possible VIX Concerns13:42
NDQ 14:17
USD/WTI 15:15
Some Stocks and Gold 15:56
Closing Statements 19:20
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See yall tomorrow at 9:15 EST
Beep boop. Beep Beep boop.
Beep boop. Beep Beep boop.
Market Update 10/3/22 Fight for $142.65TIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
APPL Possible Movements 0:28
APPL Today's Movements 4:15
BTC Recap 7:05
USD/WTI 14:25
ETH/BTC 15:30
XRP/USD 18:44
Closing Statements 19:45
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I'm too lazy to type too much today. In the video I go over what I want to see in the first 1-2 minutes. If you want an update on what the market did through my perspective, then check out the video after the first 1-2 minutes.
I go over BTC in the second half of the video, but nothing has really changed with BTC since yesterdays update. It is just moving with the market and we saw the entry point yesterday after the Week candle change. The short spots are still there if the price reaches. Most likely we will not get there until/if the stock market drops.
142.65 is still where APPL needs to fight for.
Market Update 9/30/22 Off The Cliff We Go?TIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
BTC 0:54
APPL Yesterday's Movements 9:23
APPL Today's Movements 11:12
APPL: When the Market Fell Off the Cliff 13:53
What We may See Monday and Issues of Dropping Further 18:06
Closing Statements 19:26
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There is probably one thing that saves this, and I really doubt it will happen at this point.
I only go over BTC and APPL in this one: Focusing on the Kings. The buying and selling, more specifically the selling, was REALLY good today. Even when we were slightly oversold on the shorter timeframes, the price made sure not to drop too much until we had higher time frames start under the major trendline.
BTC starting the week under 18k is horrible, things look bad, but these last two trading days have had amazing price action. I think this is worse than better, because bad selling brings good buying, but good selling generally brings nothing but more selling.
The sell off at 11:29:45 (last 15 seconds before the 2HR, 1HR, and 30Min TimeFrame change to bring it just under 142.65 was really something. I pretty much knew what was coming the second I saw that on stream. I go over that moment in the video.
Anyway, see you all on Sunday around 19:30 EST for the Crypto Week Time Frame candle change.
Market Update 9/29/22 Possible ReversalTIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
APPL What I want to see 2:07
Quick DXY 5:15
Going Over APPL Price Movements 6:00
BTC 10:56
USD/WTI (OIL) 16:54
Closing Statements 19:11
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Essentially I can easily see something bullish if we start between 142.65 - 143.2. I don't want the price to start too far away. Very similarly to how we started the day slightly under the Day 200 SMMA, touched it and then dropped. I go into specifics in the video.
Things look horrible and this is based on where we start on APPL tomorrow , but I have a good feeling about it. Also its not something that is traded until I see where we start the day, so pre and post are not important to me.
As always: Watch the video and I'll see you tomorrow at 09:15 EST to the end of the market.
Market Update 9/27/22 Structure FormingTIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
APPL What I want to see 1:32
Going Over Price Movements 1:44
DXY & VIX 9:36
BTC 10:48
ETH/BTC 16:09
DOGE 17:08
XRP 17:32
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Same video structure as always. I go over what I want to see regarding APPL (the Market King outside indices 💪) and then I go more in-depth about what happened today and then go back over what I want to see again and then in to the usual, BTC, ETH/BTC, Doge, and XRP cryptos.
Average I want to see us start slightly above is 151.75. Starting slightly under looks worse, but I want to see the lower time frame structure collapse as well. IF you check the stream near 14:30 EST you will notice that they (bulls) do a good job of not allowing the price to start under the 30Min 375 hull, which would cause a drop to a weak range that would most likely fail.
From a week perspective, I still want the price to stay in this range. These last two weeks have just been a whole lot of over selling, followed by over buying. The Day time frame 375 Hull coming down on us is certainly concerning, as it will align with the 4HR 200 and 500 averages
and also where the fib level resides (155.50). While it creates a nice area to push through if we can get above it, an INSANE push can happen, but that is also because when things line up, it generally means its really bearish, and its not that people are buying it, but that its shorts getting wrecked and people covering their shorts, that pushes it up.
👁👃🏽👁 Cya tomorrow at 9:15 EST as usual.
Market Update 9/26/22TIMESTAMPS:
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Intro 0:00
APPL 0:25
Going Over Price Movements 5:00
BTC 8:34
VIX 12:34
Indices 13:18
APPL What I want to see Recap 14:30
USD/WTI 16:08
DOGE 17:25
XRP 18:12
ETH/BTC 19:28
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Video Sums it up. The average ceiling is around the 4HR hull at 151.81. Depending on where we start there might be mayhem in the coming days or even tomorrow. The main plus that the market had today on the open, was that it was oversold in pre-market, assisting the price in initially pushing up more than it needed it.
I go over it in the video, but the amount the price rose in 1 hour today, was the same amount it rose last Monday in 5.5 hours. Pretty wild stuff. Especially since it got sold down from there.
As usual, I will add timestamps.
APPL Swing Trade, Short Term -APPL has respected this parallel channel and I think it will remain doing so. We have hit the .776-886 fib range from last swing high to swing low and developed bullish divergence on short time frames. It has also respected the ice line of the channel and its probable to keep that same price action going. Obviously we are bearish still, but this is a swing traders cup of tea. Here's a easy setup and target..
Clarification- APPL has had a rough couple of days, but the market almost always shows some mercy and lets the asset rally locally after a punishing dump.
Market Update 9/23/22 The Sound of Bulls?TIMESTAMPS:
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What I want to see in APPL: 0:00
How that may translate to the SPY,DJI,NDQ 4:46
VIX 5:40
APPL Possible Concerns/Targets 6:16
BTC/USD 8:36
ETH/BTC 10:00
DOGE/BTC 11:00
XRP/USD and XRP/BTC 15:05
Closing Statements 19:37
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I go over what I want to see in the first 3-5 minutes and then I go over some crypto pairs that look like they have big potential moves (more so continuations) coming up. Those are ETH/BTC, DOGE/BTC and XRP/BTC.
We started the day bearish like I expected and ended in the range I expected. Though the in-between was certainly not what I expected. I was somewhat surprised we didn't break to 146.60, but I thought that even if we did early in the day, that it had a high chance to return to the area APPL ended at. Otherwise we start next week over sold and had a strong reason to move back up to test. Which didn't seem like a great idea for longer term bears.
I am still looking forwards to whether we start above or under the Week 500 hull
for APPL as a general idea of whether we return or fall off the cliff, but the sentiment going into this weekend feels bullish. We will see if BTC can end slightly above the Day 500 hull (18945) as it usually does indicating an attempt to move back up and breathing room for alts.
Market Update 9/22/22Intro 0:00
BTC 0:30
APPL 2:18
VIX 11:51
HSI: 14:45
XRP/BTC and BTC Analysis 16:10
I refer between VIX, APPL and BTC in-between 11:51 and 14:45
I go over where I expect things could start for movements tomorrow and then I go in to what happened today and why I think we can end up at certain places and what targets bulls and bears may be fighting for to get what they want. Non-Short-Term Bears don't always want to sell nor do similar bulls always want to buy. Consolidation can be key.
Market Update 9/21/22Time Stamps:
0:00 APPL
4:00 VIX
6:28 APPL
9:12 BTC
18:02 ETH/BTC
19:06 GOLD
19:24 OIL
Lets see what happens.
I go over what I want to see then a recap of the last couple days and today and then I go over BTC towards the end and the big trend we have been in for months.
Long story short, I hope we get bought up a small amount tomorrow so that we can have a clean break further down and it wont seem like we are getting oversold. Though, I can't be annoyed by anyone selling because they want to be in in cash. It just makes sense as a defensive option. So to that, we may just fall off a cliff. I really don't mind being oversold though, as I prefer being bullish on/after big drops.
To me, the indexes have no real support underneath where they currently are and if APPL drops, It will drag things down pretty far. I expect Appl to head towards 122 in the near future, but well have to see what happens. Appl around 22 would coincide with the indexes possibly hitting around 20-38% down, which isn't bad considering there could be a nice amount of overselling and an easy ride back up like we had in 2020.
downward trend for week of sept 19trend analysis - using fib tool from june 16 to aug 16 uptrend - it may test fib line .382 tomorrow but based on fed release i believe price action will break .5 fib line and test .618 fib line.
technical analysis - YTD CHART - negative tsi -16 , negative macd -2, STOCH RSI LEVEL is 42, these levels can be comparative to march 11 which coincides with testing .382 fib line and breaking down towards .5 fib line.
i forecast resistance tomorrow at 157-160 with possible support at 151-153, if 151 is broken we may hit 146 - 148 ,
Market Update/Outlook 9/20/22I am pre-positioned in a small size of OTM puts incase the vix looks bad, affects the premarket tomorrow and I cannot position properly. The places I would get out or where I would add on at, are mentioned in the video.
Its too much work to find them all and type them all, so just watch the video.
Cya all tomorrow at 9:15 EST for the full market day.