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🍏 Apple (AAPL): unfolding the bullish triangle●● Preferred count ● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 2W Fig.1 The wave count on the weekly interval has not changed. More than a year ago, we were waiting for the beginning of a sideways correction in wave ((iv)) of 3 , and, as the analysis of younger time periods shows, it has begun. __________________________ ● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 2D Fig.2 At the moment, the triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) is predicted as the most frequent pattern that appears in the position of the fourth wave of the impulse . Moreover, the alternation rule requires the appearance of a sideways correction. __________________________ ● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 12h Fig.3 At the end of the triangle, a long trading setup will open. __________________________ __________________________ ●● Alternative count ● NASDAQ:AAPL , 🕐TF: 1W Fig.4 Globally alternative markup does not require revision either. The only clarification is the following: development of the ending diagonal in the wave (5) of ③ is probable. ______________________________________________ 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradeWaves-EWA
Apple -> New All-Time-HighHello Traders and Investors , my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Apple 💪 Starting on the monthly timeframe you can see that after Apple broke out of the clear triangle formation in confluence with the bullish moving averages, Apple created a strong rally of 30% towards the upside, breaking major resistance. The weekly timeframe is also showing that Apple is not slowing down at all, there are barely any red candles which means that buyers are 100% in control of the overall bullish market. And after Apple gapped higher on Friday, the daily timeframe is certainly ready for a short term technical pullback to fill the gap, but then there is definitely a higher chance that the next move on Apple stock will be again towards the upside. Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈 Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow! My previous analysis of this asset:
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by basictradingtv
46
A trader’s week ahead playbook – just roll with it Risky assets continue to climb the wall of worry, but the reality is we’ve seen conditions ripe for equity appreciation. Granted, the global central bank balance sheet is falling but the rate of change is contained, and US bank reserves are not falling as fast as feared. Liquidity is currently not the bearish catalyst for equity drawdown that many thought it might be. Economic data continues to frustrate those positioned portfolios for a recession - US consumer confidence, new home sales, and durable goods all come in hotter-than-expected. At the same time, US core PCE inflation was a touch softer at 4.6%, with softer core inflation prints also seen in Japan (Tokyo), Europe and Canada. It seems good economic news is truly good news for stocks and high beta FX – case in point, on the week, we saw the market’s expectations for the peak fed funds rate (currently seen in November) increasing by 7bp to 5.4%. Amid tighter expected Fed policy, US 2yr Treasuries gained 15bp on the week (to 4.89%) and yet despite the rise in bond yields the NAS100 gained 2.2% - closing out the best first half ever, with a remarkable gain of 39%. We’re also seeing bullish breakouts in the US500, and EU equities, with the SPA35 breaking out, while the skew is risk is that the FRA40 retests the 17 April highs. As we see in the calendar below, there is a heavy focus in the week ahead on the labour market. Unlike recent months, as long as the growth and jobs data stay firm and highlights that a US recession is a 2024 story, and with inflation grinding to target, then the equity (and risk) bulls will continue to buy dips. The risk bulls will want a solid nonfarm payrolls report, but any goodwill will be conditional on average hourly earnings (AHE) holding below 4.3% In FX markets, the USD has been frustrating and just when the bulls we’re hoping for a break of 103.38 resistance (in the USD index), the sellers reversed the goodwill. We remain on intervention watch in Japan, notably with the trade-weighted JPY falling 0.5% on the week, and well below levels since in Sept 2022, when the MoF bought Y2.8t. We’ve seen clear signs the PBoC has reached its tolerance level on USDCNY and is pushing back. USDCNH remains central to all USD moves. Let’s see if the new month brings a new trend – but knowing that the NAS100 has rallied in the last 15 consecutive months of July, it feels like the pain trade is still to the upside and the odds are skewed for higher levels – an open mind will always serve us well in trading, but for now, I am happy to just roll with it. Tactical play of the week : Long NAS100 (stop orders) above 15,220. A new month, but nothing changes – Ride the momentum, and the strong get stronger. Rearview alpha plays: • G10 and EM FX play of last week: Long NOKSEK (+1.8% last week), long USDRUB (+5.4%) • Equity indices play of last week: Long SPA35 (+3.5%) – to the highest levels since Feb 2020 • Commodity plays of last week – short corn (-16%), long Cocoa +4.6% (strong uptrend) • Equity plays for the radar – Bega Cheese (BGA.AU) – shares have fallen for 8 days in a row. Apple (eyeing $200 with a market cap over $3t). The key event risks for the week ahead RBA meeting (Tuesday 14:30 AEST) – It's hard to recall a time when making a call on an RBA policy decision was so finely balanced. One could make just as good a case to hike, as they could to hold. The economist community are evenly split (14 of 27 economists are calling for a pause), and Aussie rate futures are pricing a 40% chance of a hike. Given this dynamic, the RBA may lean on the path of least regret and hike. On the week I see AUDUSD trading a 0.6750 to 0.6580 range. AUDNZD is the cleanest play on the RBA meeting and relative policy divergence, and on the week, I would look to sell rallies into 1.0950/60. US ISM manufacturing (Tuesday 00:00 AEST) – the market expects a slight improvement in the pace of decline with the consensus set at 47.2 (vs 46.9 last month). We may need a reading above 50 to get the USD fired up, although a read above 50 would certainly surprise. Good data seems to be a positive for risky assets despite the move higher in bond yields, so expect equity to rally on a stronger-than-expected print. US weekly jobless claims (Thursday 22:30 AEST) – The economist consensus is for 245k weekly claims. Last week, we saw a strong reaction to the lower-than-expected claims print, so we know the market is looking at this data point closely. That said, we’d need a big increase/decrease from last week’s print (of 239,000) to move the dial this time around. JOLTS job openings (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the consensus here is for job openings to fall to 9.98m (from 10.1m). A pullback below 10m openings would be further relief for risky assets. A big upside surprise may see US treasuries rally (yields lower) and USDJPY should find sellers. US ISM services (Friday 00:00 AEST) – the market consensus is for slightly stronger growth in the US service sector at 51.3 (50.3). Again, we look for extreme reads vs consensus, but above 52.0 would really push back on the idea of a near-term economic slowdown. US non-farm payrolls (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the marquee economic data point of the week, where the market consensus is for 225k net jobs (the economist’s range is seen between 263k and 124k). The unemployment rate is eyed to fall back to 3.6% (3.7%), with average hourly earnings seen at 4.2% YoY. The form guide suggests the risk is for a number above 200k, having beaten expectations for 14 straight NFP prints. A big upside surprise should see USDJPY rally hard and push the BoJ/MoF a step closer to JPY intervention. Canada employment report (Friday 22:30 AEST) – the consensus is for 20k jobs to have been created, and the unemployment rate to lift a touch to 5.3%. With 13bp of hikes priced for the 12 July Bank of Canada (BoC) meeting, the outcome of the jobs report could influence that pricing and by extension the CAD. There has clear indecision on the USDCAD daily of late, subsequently, I would look to buy/sell a break of 1.3285 or 1.3116. Mexico CPI (Fri 22:00 AEST) – those that sit in the camp that Banxico cut rates in Nov/Dec will be closely watching the CPI print. The market expects a further dip in headline inflation to 5.07% and core inflation to 6.87% (from 7.39%). Carry traders are still drawn to the MXN and happy to jump on any weakness, subsequently, USDMXN seems likely to test the recent lows of 17.0227. Central bank speakers ECB – Villeroy, Guindos, Lagarde (Sat 02:45 AEST) BoE – Catherine Mann (Sat 00:30 AEST), Bailey (Sunday 17:30 AEST) US – FOMC minutes (Thurs 04:00 AEST), Williams and Logan
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Pepperstone
1
😀APPLE SAYS, 'HELLO, INDIA', as First India Stores Are LaunchedHello once again TradingViewers, and Welcome Aboard 💖 "The stars are aligned" ✨That is what tech pundits and insiders like to say on Apple’s first retail stores in India which will open in Mumbai and Delhi earlier in April, 2023, a move that would get the Cupertino-based company closer to the market with one of the youngest populations in the world. ✨As India’s economy is expected to have solid growth, with its 1.4 billion population, combined with the market’s increasing appetite for high-end smartphones, Apple is seeking to thrive in a market that offers many untapped opportunities for brands like it. Apple has launched its first stores in India in Mumbai and Delhi. ✨ The Mumbai store will cover well over 22,000 square feet inside the Jio World Drive Mall, an upscale mall owned by India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani. ✨The retail outlet is a beautiful one, featuring a triangular handcrafted timber ceiling that extends beyond the glass façade to the underside of the exterior canopy. ✨ According to Apple, each tile is made from 408 pieces of timber, forming 31 modules per tile with a total of 1,000 tiles that make up the ceiling. ✨ In fact, there are over 450,000 individual timber elements, all of which were assembled in Delhi. The Store ✨The flagship store, just like Apple’s other retail stores in key locations including Dubai and London, will be a cross between a retail store and an education centre, which Apple calls a "Town Square". ✨Just as with its other flagship locations, Apple’s stores in India will include the new Genius Grove, which is essentially a redesigned Genius Bar, as well as a new in-store experience called "Today at Apple". ✨Apple will also begin offering educational workshops and events, including sessions for photography, music, gaming, and app development. ✨Apple is known for maintaining a tight grip on the sales and distribution of its products. The company operates over 500 directly run stores globally. Until now, consumers in India had to buy iPhones, iPads, and Macs through resellers, online, or when on a trip abroad. Things to consider ✨ Gaining a foothold in India gives brands like Apple access to a broader customer base. ✨ 65 per cent of Indians are under 35 years old. ✨ Technically, Apple stocks stay firmly above 5-years SMA, as well as above major Bullish multi-year trend ✨ Apple stocks are 30 per cent YTD, and seems are ready for further price action, as key breakout of Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern is happening right now.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Pandorra
Celebrating Apple's Historic Milestone: Market Cap Hits $3 Trill Apple Inc. has achieved an extraordinary milestone - our market capitalization has soared to an unprecedented $3 trillion! 🎉🍏 As you may know, Apple's journey to success has been nothing short of remarkable. From the launch of the iconic iPhone that revolutionized the smartphone industry to the introduction of groundbreaking services like Apple Music, Apple Pay, and Apple Fitness+, they have consistently pushed the boundaries of what technology can do, enriching the lives of millions worldwide. This significant milestone highlights Apple's strength and presents a remarkable opportunity to consider further investing in Apple stock. Here's why we believe Apple continues to be an excellent investment opportunity: 1. Continued Innovation: Apple's commitment to innovation remains at the core of its DNA. With upcoming products and services in the pipeline, they are poised to redefine numerous industries and create new growth opportunities. 2. Strong Financial Performance: Apple has a consistent track record of delivering strong financial results and a robust balance sheet provides a solid foundation for long-term growth and stability. 3. Expanding Ecosystem: Apple's ecosystem, encompassing hardware, software, and services, creates a seamless user experience that fosters customer loyalty and drives revenue across various verticals. Consulting with your financial advisor to evaluate your investment strategy and make informed decisions is recommended as always.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by bryandowningqln
APPLE ATH Fueled by Quintet PowerhousesHow did APPLE make a new ATH? In the fiscal year of 2022, Apple Inc. amassed a staggering revenue close to $400 billion. The tech behemoth’s financial forecast predicts an even more dazzling $450 billion by 2023. What’s at the nucleus of this financial prowess? Here’s a dissection of the five products and services that are the linchpins in Apple's revenue generation. 1. iPhone: The Standard-Bearer Since its inception in 2007, the iPhone has been the lodestar in Apple's stellar performance, consistently accounting for over half of the company’s revenue. There was a lull in the iPhone's sales during 2015-2020, but the fiscal years of 2021 and 2022 witnessed a robust resurgence. Could it be the worldwide lockdowns that reignited consumers' affinity for this beloved gadget? One wonders. Moreover, Apple's unceasing innovation has been a catalyst in this resurgence. The company has been adept at understanding and adapting to market trends, releasing newer models with advanced features such as enhanced camera capabilities, cutting-edge processors, and improved battery life. The introduction of 5G technology in the iPhone 12 and subsequent models further bolstered its appeal. With the ever-evolving landscape of consumer preferences, Apple's commitment to innovation ensures that the iPhone continues to hold its enviable position in the market. 2. Services: A Diverse Armamentarium Apple's services segment is a multi-pronged affair. The App Store and Apple Music are the twin pillars, but AppleCare, Apple Pay, Apple TV+, Apple Card, and iCloud storage are significant contributors as well. It's been an upward trajectory for this segment since 2013, with no signs of abating. Additionally, the expansion of Apple's services is emblematic of the company's strategic diversification. As the digital landscape evolves, Apple has astutely tapped into the growing demand for integrated services. Its focus on user privacy and seamless integration across devices has been a strong value proposition. For instance, Apple TV+ enters a competitive streaming market but with original content and collaborations with high-profile creators. Apple’s services segment not only supplements its revenue but also enhances customer retention and creates a more entrenched ecosystem, encouraging users to invest more within the Apple universe. 3. Mac: The Unwavering Pillar The allure of personal computers has attenuated globally, and Mac's revenue plateaued between 2011 and 2020. However, the Mac remains integral to Apple’s ecosystem, not least because of its role in keeping users within Apple's interconnected iOS operating system. In recent times, Apple has sought to reinvigorate the Mac lineup through innovation and integration. The introduction of Apple's own M1 chip, as opposed to relying on Intel's processors, marked a significant turning point. The M1 chip has been lauded for its performance and energy efficiency, giving the Mac a competitive edge. Furthermore, the seamless integration between the Mac and other Apple devices through features like Handoff, Universal Clipboard, and Sidecar has reinforced the appeal of owning a Mac as part of the larger Apple ecosystem. This ongoing revitalization suggests that Apple is far from considering the Mac as a legacy product, and is instead positioning it for a renewed period of relevance and growth. 4. iPad: Upon their debut, iPads were an instant sensation, raking in an impressive $19 billion in the first year. There was a zenith in 2014, after which sales experienced a decline. Currently, iPad sales hover in the range of $20-30 billion, cementing their place in Apple’s revenue mix. 5. Wearables & Accessories: The Rising Contenders Under this category, one finds an array of products including Beats headphones, AirPods, and the Apple Watch. This segment has been climbing the ladder of success since 2015. Notably, AirPods are estimated to constitute a quarter of the revenue in this category. Apple's foray into the wearables and accessories market is indicative of its visionary approach to emerging consumer trends. The health and fitness boom, for instance, has been adeptly capitalized on through the Apple Watch, which offers features like heart rate monitoring, exercise tracking, and ECG. AirPods, on the other hand, have become something of a cultural phenomenon, merging high-quality audio with sleek design. These products are not just revenue generators; they are an extension of Apple's ecosystem, promoting brand loyalty and customer engagement. By continuously innovating and expanding in this sector, Apple ensures it remains not just a heavyweight in consumer electronics but a trendsetter in lifestyle technologies. Conclusion: Apple's ascent to become the first company to reach $1 trillion and subsequently $2 trillion in market capitalization is hardly fortuitous. The aforementioned quintet of products and services is the bedrock of its supremacy. With consumers' unabated ardor for Apple’s innovations and the brand loyalty it commands, NASDAQ:AAPL remains a formidable player in the stock market. Is Apple part of your investment portfolio?
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by financialflagship
21
APPLE Still a buy inside the 4 month Channel Up.Apple isn't giving us any reasons to stop buying it as it maintains the Channel Up since the March 2nd bottom. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current Rising Support spot and when it hits the MA50 (1d) again. Targets: 1. 194.00 (+13.93% as the previous Rising Support rise) on both entries. Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) is trading inside a Rectangle while the price trades inside the Channel Up. It has two clear levels for 'soft' and 'hard' Buy, which can further aid your buying. Please like, follow and comment!!
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by TradingBrokersView
2
Is AAPL About To Risk-off?So basically, I have been eying Apple for a while... and I noticed today that the pattern sinjce the market top in late 2021 appears to resemble an EXPANDING DIAGONAL which is a somewhat uncommon elliot wave chart pattern. The rally from the lows in early 2023 also is clearly a zig-zag up into the resistance zone at the all-time-high. There also appears to be pretty strong RSI divergence down from the 2019 and 2020 highs. So, if I am right, we have a 30% correction in NASDAQ:AAPL (and possibly stocks writ-large) about to arrive. I am currently positioned to be market-neutral (with both longs and shorts in my portfolio), because I actually think directionality is unclear. However, this does tie-in with what's happening on NFLX and certain other stocks. So I think this could be the risk-off moment that people have been waiting for. I am going to attempt to scale into a short here, and place my stop loss slightly above the all time highs. I expect a 30% correction in the market. So this isn't a huge collapse (yet...) so don't get over-ambitious and manage your risk.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by RogueEconomics
4
Ninja Talks EP 18: The FOMO ParadoxThe FOMO Paradox: Fearlessly Embrace the Joy of Missing Out In the vast realm of trading, where fortunes are made and lost, one peculiar phenomenon reigns supreme: FOMO, the Fear of Missing Out. It is a force that tempts even the most seasoned traders, whispering in their ears with alluring promises of quick gains and overnight success. But in this whimsical journey through the tradingverse, we shall embark on an intellectual escapade to unravel the paradoxical nature of FOMO, armed with humor, wisdom, and the power of restraint. 1. The FOMO Symphony: An Ode to Irrationality Imagine, dear reader, a symphony hall filled with traders, each playing their instruments of irrationality. The violins of impulsive buying, the trumpets of chasing trends, and the drums of unchecked greed. Amidst this cacophony, the conductor whispers, "Fear not the fear of missing out, for it is but a deceptive melody, luring you into a dance of folly." 2. The 'Emo' of FOMO: Trading with Feelings Ah, the emotional rollercoaster of FOMO, where rationality takes a backseat and the heart commands the trades. It's like being on a blind date with the market, where you're desperate for a connection, but all you end up with is a hefty loss and a broken heart. Remember, dear trader, emotions make for terrible trading partners. As Warren Buffett wisely said, "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." 3. FOMO and the Illusion of Predictability In the enchanted land of trading, FOMO whispers sweet tales of predictable trends, promising riches to those who dare not miss out. But as the legendary trader Jesse Livermore declared, "The market is designed to fool most of the people most of the time." So, when FOMO comes knocking at your door, be ready to greet it with skepticism and a firm understanding that market movements are as predictable as a cat chasing its own tail. 4. The Wisdom of the Watchful Owl Picture yourself as an owl perched high atop the trading tree, observing the market with unwavering focus. You know that succumbing to FOMO means flying blindly into the night, destined to collide with unforeseen risks. Instead, let patience be your wings, and knowledge be your guiding light. Remember the ancient proverb, "A wise trader is one who embraces the joy of missing out, for it is the gateway to disciplined decision-making." 5. The 'FauxMO' Rebellion: Making Fear Funny Let us unleash our inner court jesters and laugh in the face of FOMO! Embrace the power of satire and humor to disarm the seductive allure of quick profits. Create your own FauxMO index, where the most overhyped assets are mockingly celebrated. Treat it as a reminder that while FOMO may be real, it's better to join the circus of laughter than the parade of losses. As we bid adieu to the whimsical tradingverse, let us etch these words into our trading strategy: "Fearlessly embrace the joy of missing out, for it is in patience and restraint that true market mastery resides." Remember, dear trader, the market rewards those who approach it with intellect, discipline, and a hearty dose of humor. So, resist the siren call of FOMO and embark on your trading journey with confidence and a twinkle in your eye. Happy trading, and may the FOMO be with you... or rather, may it be far, far away!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by NinjaTradingServices
1
Peeking into Super SevensIn our previous paper , we outlined how investors can use CME's Micro S&P 500 Futures to hedge beta exposure and extract pure alpha. The paper referenced that the Super Sevens stocks (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) will continue to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Not only do these stocks benefit from passive investing and ESG investing, these firms also have solid fundamentals to back up their gargantuan valuations. Each of the firms in the Super Sevens offer unique value drivers. Each firm is a market leader in its space and has demonstrated resilient earnings capacity and solid growth potential. Still, each also has its own set of risks. Notably, with the Super Sevens the value drivers outweigh the potential risks. AMAZON VALUE DRIVERS • Blistering profits from AWS offering with dominant market share of 33%. • Market dominance in e-commerce and solid supply chain network. • Successful new categories: Kindle (publishing), Alexa (voice assistant), and Prime (video streaming). POTENTIAL RISKS • Heavy reliance on AWS for profits. Slowing growth in AWS due to slowdown in corporate IT spending. • Low profit margins in e-commerce business. Slowing growth due to lower consumer spending. • Rising competition in cloud services and e-commerce. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 54 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 42 (77%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (13%) of them have a buy rating, 4 (7%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 137, with a maximum of 220 and a minimum of 85. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to momentum deeply in favour of Amazon shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. APPLE VALUE DRIVERS • Product category definers. Dominant and still growing iPhone demand. • Solid eco-system which is extremely hard to displace. • Control over both software and hardware enables specialized tailored improvements. • Sticky services such as App store, Apple Pay, and potentially Apple BNPL. POTENTIAL RISKS • Apple is heavily reliant on external fabricators exposing it to supply-chain bottlenecks. • Heavily dependent on iPhone sales. • Rising dependence on future growth in unexplored new categories. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 42 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 22 (52%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (14%) of them have a buy rating, 13 (31%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 187, with a maximum of 220 and a minimum of 140. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring long position in Apple shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy despite Apple trading at near its all-time-high. GOOGLE VALUE DRIVERS • Google is the dominant search engine (86% market share). • Phenomenally successful and effective ad-targeting capabilities. • Heavy investments in future innovation enabling leapfrog into new verticals such as Android, Waymo (FSD & Maps). • Successful early acquisitions such as YouTube, Android, Applied Semantics & DoubleClick (AdSense), Nest (Home Automation). POTENTIAL RISKS • Massive reliance on ad revenues via search for profits. Slowing ad spend as firms cut back on spending. • Non-trivial dependence on cloud revenue for growth exposes them. Slowing cloud revenue growth due to lower corporate IT spending. • Failure to expand into new domains such as social media, wearable tech, and gaming. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 52 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 40 (77%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (13%) of them have a buy rating, while 5 (10%) suggest a hold. None of the analysts have a sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 131, with a maximum of 190 and a minimum of 100. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Google shares but prices are at tiny risk of oscillating downwards. Oscillators point to neutral while Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. META VALUE DRIVERS • Market monopoly on social media with high penetration across global markets on multiple platforms. • Flagship Facebook platform continues to see growth with 2.9 billion monthly active users (MAU). • Successful acquisitions have provided them with a wide suite of social media platforms – WhatsApp (2 billion MAU) and Instagram (2 billion MAU). • Successful developer tools (Graph, Hydra, React) have allowed them to build useful SDK (Software Development Kit). Potential sources of enterprise revenue from these. POTENTIAL RISKS • Increasing competition from TikTok. • Privacy concerns have a direct revenue impact e.g., Apple’s new privacy policies. • Falling market share for flagship Facebook in advanced economies. • High reliance on ad-sales. Slowing ad sales as firms cut back on spending. • Shaky bet on the Metaverse which is starting to fade. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 60 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 39 (65%) having a strong buy rating, 7 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 10 (17%) suggest a hold, 1 (2%) sell rating, and 3 (5%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 281, with a maximum of 350 and a minimum of 100. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Meta shares. Oscillators signal neutral indicating a tiny risk of shares shedding gains while Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a buy. MICROSOFT VALUE DRIVERS • Sheer dominance of Windows (74% market share) & MS Office. • Deep roots in MS Office enables the firm to straddle across consumers & enterprise. • Diversified software offerings - cloud (Azure), gaming (Xbox), enterprise (Windows Server and SQL), search (Bing), productivity (Office), collaboration (Teams), and AI (through Open AI's ChatGPT). • Active M&A activity to acquire assets - LinkedIn, OpenAI, GitHub, Skype, Mojang, Nokia, Activision-Blizzard (Pending). • Besides Windows, Microsoft controls dev frameworks such as .Net further strengthening their grasp on SW dev. POTENTIAL RISKS • Limited success in hardware offerings unlike Apple. • Multiple major acquisitions have fizzled – Skype and Nokia. • Limited adoption in enterprise software. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 51 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 37 (73%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 7 (14%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 345, with a maximum of 450 and a minimum of 232. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to decent momentum favouring Microsoft shares. Oscillators are at neutral while Moving averages signal a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy. NVIDIA VALUE DRIVERS • Market dominance in discrete GPU’s (80%). • Early mover in AI hardware which gives them a lead over the competition. • Raytracing, DLSS, Neural Network cores. • Nvidia’s CUDA is the primary choice for training ML models. • Market dominance in high-growth data centre graphics hardware (95%) and super-computing hardware. • Successful enterprise partnerships – car manufacturers using Nvidia software. • Emerging tech such as AI and VR require more graphics intensive processing driving demand for Nvidia’s products. POTENTIAL RISKS • Hardware-focused business model exposes it to supply-chain risks and bottlenecks. • Extremely high P/E of 225 dependent upon expectations of future growth in AI. • Losing market share in discrete GPUs and enterprise GPUs to AMD and Intel. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 50 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 36 (72%) having a strong buy rating, 6 (12%) of them have a buy rating, 7 (14%) suggest a hold, while just 1 (2%) has a sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 444, with a maximum of 600 and a minimum of 175. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring long position Nvidia shares. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy despite Nvidia relentless and unrivalled price ascent. TESLA VALUE DRIVERS • Early mover in EV’s with dominant market share in US (62%). • Dedicated and loyal customer base. • Vertical integration of EV value chain allows it to reduce reliance on external suppliers. • Early investment in large factories that will allow them to scale output more efficiently. • Huge and monetizable supercharger network by opening it up to other EV makers. • Subscription model for software enables revenue generation after product sale. • Long term vision has allowed Tesla to create entirely new products such as supercharger network, battery banks, home power backup and solar roofs. • Tesla’s planned Robotaxi and entry into car insurance can be hugely disruptive. POTENTIAL RISKS • Increasing competition from automobile majors as well as Chinese EV firms. • Tesla’s brand is deeply entangled with Musk’s reputation. • Dependence on government incentives to make Tesla affordable. • Continued access to battery metal minerals. • Ongoing and unresolved production scaling challenges. ANALYST PRICE TARGETS • Across 46 analysts providing a 12-month price target, 18 (39%) having a strong buy rating, 5 (11%) of them have a buy rating, 17 (37%) suggest a hold, 1 (2%) has a sell rating, and a 5 (11%) hold a strong sell rating. • Average 12-month price target stands at 201, with a maximum of 335 and a minimum of 71. TECHNICAL SIGNALS • Technical signals point to solid momentum favouring Tesla. Oscillators point to buy and Moving averages point to a strong buy. • In aggregate, technical signals point to a strong buy. SUMMARY The Super Sevens are well positioned to continue outperforming the wider market. As mentioned in our previous paper , investors can use a beta hedge to nullify the effects of the broader market (S&P 500) and extract pure alpha from the growth of the Super Sevens. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
35
Why Apple Stock Deserves a Prominent Place in Your PortfolioApple occupies a significant position in Berkshire Hathaway's investment portfolio, with an astounding value of $165 billion, making up 48% of the allocation as of March 31. Warren Buffett, the highly regarded investor known as the Oracle of Omaha, has expressed his belief that Apple stands apart from Berkshire Hathaway's other businesses. This positive sentiment aligns with Buffett's typical investment criteria, as Apple possesses many of the qualities he looks for in a company. Drawing inspiration from one of the greatest minds in the stock market, investors can greatly enhance their portfolios. Here are three compelling reasons why considering an investment in Apple stock is worthwhile, despite its 39% increase in value this year. While the iPhone continues to be a major contributor to Apple's revenue in the fiscal 2023 second quarter, accounting for 54% of it, the company has been actively expanding its services line in recent years. This segment has displayed impressive growth, with revenue reaching $13.3 billion in Q2 2020 and surging to $20.9 billion in the most recent fiscal quarter. Notably, the services segment is growing at a faster rate compared to Apple's products segment. This shift towards services brings significant financial benefits for Apple. Services enjoy an impressive gross margin of 71%, surpassing the 37% gross margin associated with products. As services contribute a larger share of the company's revenue, they are poised to positively impact Apple's overall profitability. Beyond the financial advantage, Apple's services segment plays a crucial role in fostering stronger customer loyalty. The renowned Apple ecosystem, which seamlessly integrates the company's hardware and software offerings, enhances the overall user experience. With over 2 billion active Apple devices worldwide, owners of these products have fewer reasons to switch to competing platforms. Apple's services, such as Music, Pay, and TV+, contribute to this loyalty by providing additional value and keeping users engaged within the Apple ecosystem. Warren Buffett has often emphasized the significance of pricing power as an indicator of an exceptional company. According to him, a truly outstanding business can consistently raise prices with minimal impact on demand, without the need for extensive deliberation. Apple, holding a significant position in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio, demonstrates an impressive ability to command pricing power, making it an attractive investment. Apple's flagship product, the iPhone, has seen price increases since its initial launch in 2007. Remarkably, consumers continue to willingly pay higher prices for the latest versions without hesitation. This exemplifies the strong demand and brand loyalty associated with Apple's products. Furthermore, even Apple's services have experienced price hikes, further reinforcing the company's pricing power. Through a combination of beautifully designed hardware products and its own user-friendly software ecosystem, Apple has established a differentiated offering, allowing it to maintain and strengthen its pricing power. The ability of Apple to consistently raise prices across its product and service lines without significant repercussions on consumer demand is a testament to the company's enduring appeal and exceptional business model. It is one of the key reasons why Berkshire Hathaway maintains a sizable stake in Apple. In a period characterized by heightened economic uncertainty, where concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, and the possibility of a recession loom large, it becomes prudent for investors to prioritize financially stable companies. Apple is a prime example of such a company. Over the years, Apple has demonstrated impressive financial strength and stability. The company's gross margin has expanded from 38.5% in fiscal 2017 to 43.3% in fiscal 2022, while its operating margin has risen from 26.8% to 30.3% over the same period. This growth in profitability is a remarkable trait, showcasing Apple's ability to become more profitable as it continues to grow. This success can be attributed not only to its pricing power but also to the benefits of economies of scale. Apple has optimized expenses and leveraged fixed costs more effectively, which is particularly noteworthy in the consumer hardware industry where financial challenges are common. Yet, Apple has emerged as a thriving outlier. Additionally, Apple generates substantial amounts of free cash flow, reaching an impressive $111 billion in fiscal 2022. The company is proactive in returning capital to shareholders, as evidenced by its stock repurchases amounting to $39 billion in the past six months. Moreover, Apple offers a dividend that currently yields 0.5%, further enhancing its appeal for income-oriented investors. Considering these compelling factors, the arguments in favor of owning Apple stock are exceptionally strong. The company's solid financial performance and stability suggest that it has the potential to be a reliable and enduring presence in investment portfolios for years to come. By following the lead of successful investors like Warren Buffett and recognizing the enduring appeal of Apple's products, services, pricing power, and financial stability, investors can make informed decisions that can enhance their portfolios in the long run.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by FOREXN1
16
Harvesting Alpha with Beta HedgingImagine this. Dark skies, earth tremors and thunder roars. Shelter is top priority. Size matters in a crisis. When the tsunami strikes and lightning splits the sky, investors shudder in fear; But the super seven stand tall, shielding investors from the fury. Dramatic metaphors aside, we truly live in unprecedented times. Risk lurks everywhere. List is endless. Unstable geopolitics. Sticky inflation. Recession expectations. Unprecedented deepening of yield curve inversion. Unfinished regional banking crisis. Weak manufacturing. Tightening financial conditions. Extremely divisive global politics, to just name a few. Despite severe headwinds, US equity markets are roaring. YTD, S&P is up +15% and Nasdaq is up +32%. At the start of 2023, the consensus was for US equities to be in doldrums dragged down by recession. Halfway through the year, markets are at the cusp of one of the best first half for US equity markets in twenty years. This is among the narrowest and top-heavy rally ever. Only a sliver of stocks - precisely seven of them - defines this optimism. This paper will refer to these as the Super Sevens. These are the biggest members of the S&P 500 index. Super Sevens are Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. This paper argues that the Super Sevens will deliver above market returns in the short term as investors seek safe haven from a vast array of macro risks. The paper articulates a case study to demonstrate the use of beta hedging to extract alpha from holding long positions in Super Sevens and hedging them against sharp reversals using CME Micro E-Mini S&P 500 index futures ("CME Micro S&P 500 Futures"). THE RISE AND RISE OF SUPER SEVENS Super Sevens have an outsized impact as S&P 500 is a market weighted index. Merely five of these seven form 25% of the S&P 500 market capitalisation. At $2.9 trillion in market capitalisation, Apple is greater than all of UK’s top 100 listed companies put together. If that were not enough, Apple's market capitalisation alone is greater than the aggregate market capitalisation of all the firms in the Russell 2000 index. Nvidia has been soaring on hopes of AI driven productivity gains. On blow out revenue guidance, it has rallied $640 billion in market cap YTD. That increment alone is larger than the combined market cap of JP Morgan & Bank of America the two largest banks in the US. The heatmap summarises analyst targets & technical signals on pathway for prices ahead: In part 2 of this paper, Mint will cover the detailed analyst price forecasts, technical signals and summary narratives covering value drives and intrinsic risk factors. WHAT DRIVES INVESTOR CONCENTRATION INTO THE SUPER SEVENS? As reported in the Financial Times last week, two broad market trends appear to have fed into this investor concentration. First, Passive investing. When funds merely deliver the performance of an index by replicating its composition, the higher the index weights, the more these passive funds buy into these names. Second, ESG investing. Rising push towards ESG has forced investment into tech and away from carbon-heavy sectors such as energy. Collectively, this has resulted in all types of investors – active, passive, momentum, ESG- all going after the same names. Question is, what happens now? Will the broader market catch up with the Super Sevens? Or will the Super Sevens suffer a sharp pullback? That depends on the broader US economy. Will it have a hard landing, soft landing, or no landing at all? Given market expectations of (a) resilient earnings capacity, and (b) solid growth potential among Super Sevens, we expect that in the near to mid-term the Super Sevens will continue to outperform the broader market. In ordinary times, investors could have simply established long positions in Super Sevens and wait to reap their harvests. However, we live in unprecedented times. WE LIVE IN TRULY UNPRECEDENTED TIMES Risks abound but no signs of it in equity markets. Historically, geopolitical instability, tightening financial conditions, and a deeply inverted curve could have led to crushing returns in the US equity markets. Not this time though. Peak concentration As mentioned earlier, bullishness in equity markets can be vastly attributed to just the Super Sevens. These seven have delivered crushing returns rising between 40% and 192% YTD. The S&P 500 index is market cap weighted. Super Sevens represent the largest companies in the index by market cap and their stellar performance has an outsized impact on the index. Is this a bull run or a bear market clouded by over optimism among Super Sevens? Deeply inverted yield curve In simple words, it costs far more to borrow for the near term (2 year) relative to the borrowing for long term (10-year). The US Treasury yield curves have been inverted for more than a year now. The difference between the 2-Year and 10-Year treasuries is at its widest level since the early 1980s. Inversion in yield curve has historically been a credible signal of recession ahead. When bonds with near term duration yield higher rates than those with longer-dated expiries, this precedes trouble in the economy. Recession. What recession? This period might go into the record books for the most long-awaited recession that is yet to come. For the last 12 months, experts have been calling for recession to show up in 3 months. While manufacturing sector seems feeble, labour market remains solid. Corporate balance sheets are robust. Consumer finances and consumer confidence are in good health. The VIX remains sanguine while the only fear indicator that appears unsettled is the MOVE index which indicates volatility in the bond markets. After having spiked earlier in the year, the MOVE is starting to soften as well. BETA HEDGING FOR PURE ALPHA In times of turbulence, risk management is not an afterthought but a necessity. Hedge delivers the edge. When there are ample arguments to be made for bullish and bearish markets, taking a directional position can be precarious. This paper posits Super Sevens holdings be hedged with CME Micro S&P 500 Futures. Hedging single stocks is nuanced. The stocks and the index do not always move in tandem. A given stock may be more volatile or less volatile relative to the benchmark. Beta is the sensitivity of the stock price relative to a benchmark. Beta is computed from daily returns over a defined historical period. Stocks with high Beta move a lot more than the underlying index. Stocks that move narrowly relative to its underlying benchmark exhibits low Beta. Beta hedging involves adjusting the notional value of a stock price based on its beta. Using beta-adjusted notional, hedging then involves taking an offsetting position in an index derivative contract to match the notional value. TradingView publishes beta values computed based on daily returns over the last 12 months. The following table illustrates the beta-adjusted notional for the Super Sevens based on the last traded prices as of close of market on June 16th. Beta hedging using CME Micro S&P 500 Futures enables investors to precisely scale their portfolio exposures to the index. A small contract size enables investors to manage risks with finer granularity. CME allows conversion of micro futures into a classic E-mini futures position, and vice versa. Round the clock liquidity combined with tight spreads and sizeable open interest across the two front contract months, investors can enter and exit the market at ease. BETA-HEDGED TRADE SET UP In unprecedented times like today, markets may continue to rally or come crashing. To harness pure alpha, this paper posits a spread with long positions in Super Sevens hedged by a short position in CME Micro S&P 500 Futures expiring in September 2023. This trade set-up gains when (a) Super Sevens rise faster than the S&P 500, or (b) Super Sevens suffers drop in value but falls lesser relative to S&P 500, or (c) Super Sevens gain while S&P 500 falls. This trade setup loses when (a) Super Seven falls faster than S&P 500, or (b) S&P 500 rises faster than Super Seven, or (c) S&P 500 rises while Super Sevens pullback Each CME Micro S&P 500 Futures has a multiplier of USD 5. The September contract settled on June 16th at 4453.75 implying a notional value of USD 22,269 (4453.75 * USD 5). Effective beta hedge requires that notional of the hedging trade is equivalent to the beta-adjusted notional value of single stock. Given the beta-adjusted notional value of USD 2,561 for single shares in Super Sevens and the notional value for each lot of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures at USD 22,269, the spread trade requires: a. A long position in 26 shares each across all the Super Sevens translating to a beta-adjusted notional of USD 66,576. b. Hedged by a short position with 3 lots of CME Micro S&P 500 Futures which provides a notional exposure of USD 66,807. The following table illustrates the hypothetical P&L of this spread trade under various scenarios: MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by mintdotfinance
3
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning SignalFrankly speaking, the pattern that would make the most sense for the markets with the situation in the world at present is that the ATH on Nasdaq, Dow, and SPX are taken before the end of '23. However, there are a number of problems that indicate despite the extreme greed, bear capitulation, and bull euphoria this may not happen. One of the biggest fundamental factors is comments made by Jerome Powell at the last FOMC press conference, where for the first time in 15 months, a pause on rate hikes was induced. The small one is Powell made sure everybody understood that the pause was for June and June alone and not to be misconstrued as a policy change. The big one is that Powell plainly stated in answers to reporters that rates will not be cut until inflation comes down significantly, and that he expects this to take years. What this really means is that in order to have inflation really come back down, you need '08 GFC/'20 COVID demand destruction to unfold, but arguably on a bigger and more dramatic scale. What can cause a bigger and more dramatic worldwide calamity? There are only a few things, and none of them are pretty. Will they happen before election year? During election year? On top of this, with the Treasury General Account refill being the catalyst that finally impacts the reverse repo facility, liquidity is coming out of the markets, not going in. So the fundamentals of the markets and economy are actually worse now at 15,500 in many ways than they were at 10,000. But fundamentals never matter in the linear way people expect, and that's why you get 50% rallies on tech when tech as a sector is primarily worthless. So here's the technical breakdown of the NQ. On weekly and monthly bars, Nasdaq has gone up in a straight line since '23 opened. The low of the year was set in the first week of January. This is generally bullish and means we can expect new highs. However, all of these fundamental turns in the feng shui of the economic mood have occurred right as the Nasdaq was pushed back to the distribution block that formed the '21 top. This area also happens to be the 79% Fibonacci retracement level, and the entire bull run has been composed of a parabolic trend angle of better than 70 percent. Price now trades far away from every trendline there is. In fact, the delta between the '22 LOY and the trendline composed of the '18 volmageddon and '20 COVID lows is a staggering 13 percent. From where we are now it's 6,000 points. It's too parabolic, and it's happening inside of a fundamental tightening cycle, when China's economy and society is in huge trouble, and also a time when oil and natural gas look as if they're about to go town. This area between where we are now and the '22 top is an area of huge resistance. The intention, or "the plan," if you will, may very well be to send it back to the trendline with new highs being incurred only on the back of a Donald Trump 2024 Presidency. Trump winning '24 won't be quite the "W" for rightists and conservatives and the religious that they think it will be. In fact, Trump is an ass and may usher in an era of globalism, so make sure you vote for Ron DeSantis or RFK. If you ask me, the biggest fundamental tell in this is the USD. The tells are subtle, but February was a gap rebalance, and April was a higher low that also formed a double bottom. All on its own, I generally feel that's bearish. But May formed a higher low, and all while equities were mooning. And on top of that, the DXY stopped during the height of the '22 collapse, at under the 115 psychological level. Nasdaq never swept the 9,xxx level. Moreover, VIX and VIX futures are printing 13 and 14 handles, figures usually reserved for the most bullish of economic conditions. Not economic conditions where the indexes are still trading at lower highs and almost all of the core equities are still trading at just a blip. Bears have been calling for a crash for months. But how many are not only about to miss the opportunity after getting hurt, but start actually buying the dip? If Nasdaq can't make a new high and run away by July, then 9,500 is coming and it's going to come fast. You better believe it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
5