Apple
Apple PeakI used my spread graph formula to analyze Apple's price. Historic prices from as early 1988 to today were considered. Apple recently overtook UK's whole stock market cap. As one of the most important companies in the U.S. (more like in the world) its sole stock price may be a good indicator of the economy's health and world demand. The graph presented is bearish technically. Fundamentally, I believe the upcoming recession will be ruthless for stocks. Apple in particular, potentially losing more market value in relation to U.S. equities. My position arises from America's recent political and economic instability, further projected problems - The changing of world order would see specifically U.S.'s core stocks lose value as quickly as they were gained through debt.
AAPL short position before new ATHThe price is approaching previous all time high where we should see some resistance and profit taking.
It's an area where we can speculate on a short position with a stop loss.
The price has already broke above the upsloping resistance line, so we expect the price to go into discovery mode, however before it's happens we expect that the previous resistance will be back tested and confirmed as a support,which would be our target for a short position.
Once the support is confirmed you can flip bullish.
Apple -> Leading The RallyHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Apple stock is approaching a quite obvious previous weekly resistance zone at the $180 level which is now turned resistance again.
You can also see that over market structure is still massively bullish, I am also definitely expecting new all-time-highs on Apple so I am now just waiting for a short term rejection and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Apple stock is still creating bullish market structure with the recent break and retest of the $175 level, so there is still no sign of Apple slowing down, so I will just wait for a short term correction before I then do expect more continuation towards the upside.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Will Apple be able to update historical maximum? 🍎 Only some 5% remained before the historical maximum.
If stock can do this, then Apple will become the world's first $3 trillion company!
The NASDAQ:AAPL weight in the SP500 also rose to 7.4% - the highest for any single company in the index since data collection began in 1980!
When you watch the Sp500 index go up, it doesn't mean that all stocks go up.
Now the US index is pulled by 2-3 stocks that buy back their shares for billions of dollars.
In the latest report, apple launched a new buyback to $90 billion and increased its dividend.
Fundamentally and technically, the stock is ready to rise to new highs and higher… but I don’t think that will happen and here’s why 📉
1) The main catalyst for growth in recent years is buybacks.
Now the US government is actively discussing the taxation of buybacks.
Without buying back their own shares, companies will not be able to grow, since EPS will not grow.
2) The company has been declining phone sales for several quarters.
Yes, Apple's revenue from phone sales is not the highest share of revenue.
But it should be remembered that the entire ecosystem of the company is growing due to new devices.
3) Remember that buying an asset on highs almost never leads to a profit.
In the context of economic crisis - it will be very difficult for stocks to grow.
FED continues its money withdrawal policy QT - this is bad for all assets.
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If you are interested in analysis of any other asset - write in the comments and I will do it.
APPLE BUYHello, great opportunity to invest in Apple shares. There is a high probability of going up. With breaking the strong resistance at 156. With a model forming. bullish flag.Note: If you like this analysis, please give your opinion on it. in the comments. I will be happy to share ideas. Like and click to get free content. Thank yo
iPhone sales beat but Services is the real star hereApple surprised us with iPhone sales rising to $51.3B vs. estimates of $48.9B. Some of this was likely due to the backlog of customers who were unable to purchase a new phone during the company’s supply crunch in China the previous quarter. We’re most impressed with services growth, which grew +5.5% to $20.1B. An astonishing figure: almost one billion people now use Apple’s services (iCloud, Apple music, Apple TV, Apple Pay, etc). We think as iPhone sales slow Services revenue will become more and more important – when you buy an Apple device you are effectively giving residual royalties to Apple for the rest of the device’s life. Hardware sales fell ~31%, in line with weakening consumer spending for “big ticket items” (aside from iPhones, which continues to surprise). Pleased to see continued buybacks: another $90B of stock repurchases are authorised for this year. Continue see upside as +$190 and downside as $+140 – impeccable results once again. Note that Apple opened its first store in India this year – so far “switcher” numbers (Android users converted to iPhone) are looking good and we think this will be a continued growth area for the company.
Apple -> Short Term TopHello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe you can see that Apple stock is currently approaching a quite massive previous weekly resistance area at the $175 level which is now turned strong resistance once again.
You can also see that over the past couple of weeks, Apple stock had a rally of about 35% towards the upside without any noticable correction, so I am now just waiting for a short term rejection away from the resistance area and then I do expect more continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe you can see that Apple stock is still creating bullish market structure and moving averages are also massively bullish, so I am now just waiting for some consolidation and bearish pressure before I then do expect a short term dump away from the resistance area.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
Analyzing Apple's Q2 2023 Earnings Report: Reasons for OptimismOn May 5th, Apple's stock experienced a 5% surge following the release of its latest earnings report. Although the tech giant reported a 2.5% YoY decrease in revenue to $94.8 billion for Q2 of fiscal 2023, which ended on April 1st, the company exceeded analysts' estimates by approximately $2 billion, with earnings remaining at $1.52 per share, exceeding the consensus forecast by $0.09 per share.
While Apple's growth rates may seem unimpressive, especially considering its 34% year-to-date rally compared to the S&P 500's 8% increase, a closer look reveals both reasons to be optimistic and pessimistic about its future.
One of the major concerns skeptics have regarding Apple's financial outlook is the company's reliance on the iPhone as a significant contributor to revenue, which represented 54% of the company's revenue in Q2, despite only growing 1.5% YoY. This has led many to question whether Apple's dependence on the iPhone will ultimately lead to diminishing returns for the company in the future, especially given the saturated nature of the smartphone market. In fact, the global smartphone market experienced an 11.3% decline in shipments in 2022, with predictions of a further 1.1% slump in 2023, as iPhone and Android shipments could drop by 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively. If these predictions are correct, it could result in stalling iPhone sales for Apple in the second half of fiscal 2023.
Furthermore, sales of Apple's Mac and iPad, which contributed 15% of its Q2 revenue, declined due to tough comparisons with their launches of M1-powered devices, as well as the macro and currency headwinds. This trend may continue as remote work and online learning purchases decrease in a post-pandemic market.
However, Apple's Q2 services revenue, generated from the App Store and subscription-based services, grew 5% YoY, representing 22% of its top line. While this marks a slight slowdown from its Q4 YoY growth of 6%, this still positions Apple as a strong contender in the services market. Nevertheless, this deceleration may raise concerns as Apple plans to leverage its services to reduce its dependence on iPhone sales. In addition, analysts predict a decline of 2% and 3% in revenue and earnings, respectively, as its soft hardware sales offset its rising services revenue. Despite this, Apple trades at 28 times forward earnings, likely due to its status as a "safe haven" stock. In comparison, Microsoft, which grows at a faster pace and is not reliant on a single product line for half its revenue, trades at only 25 times forward earnings.
Despite concerns over Apple's dependence on the iPhone and a recent slowdown in some of its businesses, optimists believe that the company has a lot of potential for growth in the future. For example, the fact that the company's iPhone sales recently set a new Q2 record suggests that the market's demand for new iPhones remains strong. Additionally, Apple has a very loyal customer base, with a recent survey finding that 94% of iPhone users plan to stick with Apple, compared to only 80% of Android users planning to stick with their current brand.
This brand loyalty, coupled with the sticky nature of Apple's ecosystem, should help to keep users locked into its subscription-based services. In Q2, Apple reached a record 975 million paid subscriptions across all of its services, representing an 18% increase from the prior year. This large audience of paid subscribers positions Apple to challenge major players like Netflix in the streaming video space with Apple TV+, Spotify in music streaming with Apple Music.
In addition, Apple has also been expanding into new markets, such as wearables, home automation, and services like Apple Pay, Apple Card, and Apple TV+. While these businesses currently represent a small portion of Apple's revenue, they have significant potential for growth in the future.
For example, wearables, home, and accessories generated $12.97 billion in revenue for Q2 2023, an increase of 36.2% YoY, and a new all-time record for the category. Apple's wearables, including AirPods, Apple Watch, and other accessories, are becoming increasingly popular, with wearables revenue surpassing iPad and Mac revenue combined for the first time in Q2.
Apple Pay and Apple Card, which fall under the services segment, also offer significant potential for growth. The adoption of mobile payments is on the rise, and Apple Pay is becoming increasingly popular among consumers. The company has been expanding its reach, adding new partners and markets, and offering new features such as the ability to split payments with friends.
Apple TV+ has also been gaining traction, with the company investing heavily in original content to compete with other streaming services such as Netflix and Amazon Prime. While it's still too early to say whether Apple TV+ will be a major player in the streaming market, the company's deep pockets and loyal customer base make it a formidable competitor.
Finally, Apple's strong financial position provides a significant advantage. With $166 billion in cash and marketable securities, Apple has plenty of resources to invest in new technologies, research and development, and acquisitions. The company has a history of making strategic acquisitions, such as its recent purchase of Drive.ai, a self-driving car startup, and its acquisition of Beats Electronics, which helped to jumpstart its music streaming business.
Overall, while there are certainly concerns about Apple's reliance on the iPhone and the challenges it faces in some of its businesses, the company's strengths cannot be ignored. Apple has a loyal customer base, a growing services segment, and a significant cash hoard that it can use to invest in new technologies and markets. As such, while its stock may not be cheap and its dividend yield low, Apple remains a tech leader with plenty of potential for future growth, making it a compelling investment opportunity for long-term investors.
APPLE Short From Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
APPLE is trading in an
Uptrend and the stock
Made a rebound from the
Rising support just as I
Predicted in my previous
Analysis, however, a strong
Horizontal resistance of 175$
Is about to be retested and
As the stock is locally
Overbought I think that
We will see a bearish
Correction and a move down
Sell!
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Apple AAPL - Brace Yourselves for $200. Seriously.Apple is something of a reverse canary in the coalmine when it comes to the Nasdaq, specifically because it's its highest weighted company at almost 14%. All these weeks everyone has been bearish, but yet, Apple is not in anything resembling a bear market.
Instead, everything about Apple from the monthly chart to the daily chart indicates that the January all time high of $182.93 is not very likely at all to be the all time high.
And this is under the circumstance wherein Apple extensively relies on what is effectively slave labor supplied by the notorious Chinese Communist Party, a problem really exacerbated by the regime employing that Zero-COVID stuff.
This is important because the situation with Apple's Foxconn factories and other Chinese factories and the new restrictions on chip makers means there is fundamental problems with this company going forward.
There's fundamental problems and yet it's set up to rally to a new all time high. Apple is more or less in "The Big Short."
Look up "China Quarantine Camps" or "COVID QR Code" on social media. The Chinese are literally being placed by the millions into huge concentration camps and every aspect of their daily life, from their ability to use public transit, their ability to go to work, their ability to purchase goods, their ability to use money, is entirely under the CCP's social credit system, lynch pinned around the colour of their QR code health pass.
And to think this is a system that the Western globalist establishment would like to install for all of us all over the world via central bank digital currencies... all I can say to readers is I hope you are intelligent enough to reject the Communist Party's things and its Marxist-Leninist "Theory of Evolution" and atheism stuff. If you want those things, you'll have to go with those things and experience what those things truly entail.
Personally, I'm calling a bear market rally, with Nasdaq going to 14,000. I suppose it'll be rather humiliating for me if this turns out to be incorrect and we keep dumping. However, fortune favours the bold, and at the same time, this is how bear markets work and there's a logic to the way they operate.
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming
I also believe that stocks like Amazon and Meta are due for a fat rally
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
Before you discount my supposition as hogwash, consider that McDonald's and Lockheed Martin just made all time highs just last month. And this is supposed to be a bear market where everything is going down.
So what's the rationale for saying Apple is going to set a new all time high?
Let's examine the monthly:
1. Apple set the low of the year in June, like everything else, but when it came time for September and October's scary index dumps, Apple remained very strong. October was actually a winning month overall.
2. Although this appears to have sharply reversed in November, it's worth noting we're a total of 4 trading days into the month. The November high as printed is not likely to remain the high.
3. In terms of range equilibrium for this market cycle, which I measure from anything's Coronavirus Disease 2019 pseudo-pandemic hysteria low to its all time high, Apple has not wanted to trade back to equilibrium. This all on its own tells me that the MMs are still heavy on the sell.
Looking at a weekly chart:
Inside the 2022 trading range we can see that Apple is currently trading at a deep discount. The magnification of the fractal shows us that not only is the prior statement true, but that the area below the October of 2021 pivot that led to the ATH has been worked extensively for the last several months.
On the daily, we can see with more clarity that the post-earnings pump was actually a major trade away from this genuine demand zone and back towards range equilibrium. It has since retraced, which is bullish.
If you understand how sell models work, you'll understand why this is "bullish" and not "bearish," and you'll understand why Apple continues to trade like it does and why it doesn't want to make a new low despite how excited everyone always is about the prospect of it crashing so they can buy cheap.
(Hint: When Apple is under $115, don't touch it. It's going to wind up like Facebook.)
But if you understand how sell models work, you'll also know why a new all time high on Apple is bearish, and not bullish.
What I would like to say to everyone is that bear markets rally and rally hard. They do this for a reason and the fundamental reason is that they're not bullish.
It sounds contradictory, right? "Why would something rally so hard if it's not bullish? How can that be?"
You are confused because when you see price go up, you think buying and when you see price go down, you think selling. Yet, if the banks and the funds traded like that, they would blow their account like you do and we would have ourselves a Lehman Brothers moment every 3 to 6 months and society would collapse.
When you see huge rallies like what's ahead you need to govern yourself strictly, and this means:
1. Don't get delusional and think you're in a new paradigm of everything going uppy. No, SPX is not going to 6,000 before Jan. 1 like David J. Hunter has been calling.
2. Check your greed before your greed checks your hide
3. Don't short or buy puts too early. Instead, buy them too late. A bullish Apple is as scary as a bullish Bitcoin.
4. The more complaining you see on social media and your signal groups about the Federal Reserve and "this ponzi," the higher things are going to go. The top is in when the charlatans and grifters start talking about getting long.
5. Buy the dip, but keep your risk low.
6. Make sure you take profits because this is no time to buy and hold.
Because what lies ahead after you see this go on for a bit and VIX hit numbers like 17 and 18, is this, which I called in August,
VIX - 9x8 = 72
The limit down that lies ahead is going to be vicious. Afterwards, North Americans will finally know what a real bear market feels like. It's not fun.