AAPL has some pressureOnce upon a time, there was a guy named Jack who was obsessed with trading in the stock market. He spent every waking moment analyzing charts and studying market trends. His favorite company to trade was AAPL, and he had been eyeing it for weeks, waiting for the perfect moment to buy.
Jack had set a goal for himself to ride AAPL up to about $168, but unfortunately, the time hadn't come yet. He was patiently waiting for the price to dip a bit more so that he could pounce on it and make a fortune. He spent hours each day checking his charts and watching the news, hoping for a sign that the time was right.
One day, while Jack was staring intently at his computer screen, his roommate walked in and asked what he was doing. Jack excitedly explained that he was waiting for AAPL to retreat so that he could buy in and ride it to $168.
His roommate looked at him skeptically and asked, "Why are you waiting for it to go down? Isn't the goal to buy low and sell high?"
Jack chuckled and replied, "Yes, but I have a secret weapon, the wave master indicator! It's showing some downside pressure, so I'm exercising patience and waiting for the right moment."
Be like Jack. Use your indicators. Check the chart and you can see when a buy has triggered, it resulted in a big move down. We haven't see a 4h sell signal since 2021 and we just got one. Wait for the green wave to reset.
Apple
AAPL 1WWhy do I expect price to move lower below 103 USD?
Firstly, let's look at the chart.
What can you can read from the chart?
Price is currently around local PoC.
Price has been creating lower highs (LH) for last several months.
Price is currently below Ichimoku Cloud (strong resistance).
What do I expect will happen based on my readings?
Price is not very strong. It is below Ichimoku cloud and has created several lower highs. I believe that the price will move below 103 USD and take SLs of bulls.
SVB: Announces bankruptcy!
The situation at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not particularly complicated. In short, they borrowed short and invested long, mismanaged their liquidity, and caused their own demise. The specific steps were as follows: low-interest deposit-taking, overzealous investment in Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS), short-term liquidity gaps, forced selling of assets, and market panic.
Low-interest deposit-taking: Between 2020 and 2021, due to the Federal Reserve's extended period of 0% interest rates, there was a huge financing boom in the tech industry, with a significant portion of cash flowing into SVB. SVB's deposit liabilities surged from $61.8 billion at the end of 2019 to $189.2 billion at the end of 2021, with interest rates on this portion of deposits only around 0.25%.
Overzealous investment in MBS: With so much low-interest money, SVB naturally engaged in carry trade. Typically, banks focus on lending, but SVB invested a large portion of its funds in MBS. Their financial statements showed they held $13.8 billion of MBS at the end of 2019, which had grown to $98.2 billion by the end of 2021. In other words, over 65% of the deposits they took in went towards buying MBS.
Short-term liquidity gap: Normally, investing in MBS is not a problem because they can be redeemed at maturity. But SVB's problem was that it held too many MBS and had too few short-term liquid assets. In today's high-interest rate environment, tech companies are struggling to survive and are gradually withdrawing money from their deposits, causing SVB's liquidity pressures to soar.
Forced selling of assets: To solve the liquidity problem, management chose the cheapest option, which was to sell their MBS holdings. But now, market interest rates had increased from nearly 0 to 5% for 2-year Treasury bonds, and asset prices had fallen significantly in sync. Selling $21 billion of assets resulted in an $1.8 billion loss.
Market panic: For SVB, the $1.8 billion loss was still manageable because their shareholder equity was $16 billion. However, the problem was with the $100 billion of MBS that they had not yet sold. If there was a run on the bank, this could result in a potential loss of $15 billion, causing SVB to go bankrupt. Therefore, there was a great deal of panic in the market, causing the stock price to plummet by 60% in a single day.
SVB has now declared bankruptcy, and the US government has intervened. It is being managed by a specialized institution.
When a bank of this size collapses, there are bound to be chain reactions. The institutions known to be affected include Circle. For those who invest in stocks, they may not have heard of it, but those who invest in cryptocurrencies certainly have, as the most famous stablecoin, USDC, is issued by Circle. The total amount is $40 billion, and in today's announcement, they revealed that $3.3 billion of their assets were stuck in SVB, accounting for almost 8%.
This means that those who invest in cryptocurrencies suddenly find that their $100 has shrunk to $92. To say that it's a seismic event is not an exaggeration.
There are likely dozens of institutions of a similar scale to Circle that are also trapped, but for various reasons, they are not disclosing their situation. We'll have to wait and see when they come forward.
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APPLE:FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. Apple is a technology company that was founded in 1976, almost half a century ago. Today, it is the world's most valuable company, with a market value of $2.43 trillion. Despite a difficult 2022, where its stock price fell 27 percent along with other tech companies, Apple's stock has grown more than 20% since the beginning of this year as tech stocks make a comeback on Wall Street. Despite this growth, Apple's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 26 is fairly low compared to competitors like Amazon and Walt Disney.
If you're an investor looking to invest in Apple, it's important to consider some key aspects of the company. One of the most important factors to consider is the company's focus on developing exceptional products. By maintaining high standards and focusing on product development, Apple has been able to charge premium prices and foster consumer loyalty. In fact, as of September 2022, Apple has exceeded a 50% market share for smartphones, outpacing Alphabet's Android operating system. This is a significant accomplishment, as consumers tend to stick with their preferred operating system for extended periods. Additionally, expanding market share enables Apple to cross-promote its product line, providing users with complementary products that share a similar design language.
Apple's strong product line has propelled the company's stock up by 248% over the past five years and 911% over the past decade. Furthermore, Apple's revenue has increased by 48% to $394 billion since 2018, while operating income has surged by 68% to $119 billion.
Another important factor to consider is the company's focus on maximizing iPhone profits. The iPhone segment earned 52% of the company's total revenue last year, earning $205.4 billion and up 7% YoY. As such, Apple's smartphone business is critical to the company's success, making upcoming changes in iPhone production promising for long-term profits. For instance, Bloomberg recently reported that Apple plans to replace telecom and WiFi/Bluetooth chips from companies such as Qualcomm and Broadcom with its own versions by 2025. Additionally, the media site reported that Apple plans to stop using iPhone displays from Samsung and LG as early as 2024 and switch to its own versions. Ending costly partnerships in favor of in-house designed components will likely boost iPhone profit margins and strengthen the business by reducing Apple's reliance on outside technology companies.
Apple is also strengthening its business by expanding into other areas, such as its subscription-based services business. Apple Music, TV+, iCloud, News+, Fitness+, and Arcade are thriving offerings that have doubled revenue growth, up 14% YoY to $78.1 billion, in fiscal 2022. The segment's 71.7% profit margin confirms the profitability of the digital business, while the same figure for products was 36.3% for the year.
It is also reported that Apple is diversifying its product line by entering the augmented/virtual reality (AR/VR) market this year and launching a new headset. According to Grand View Research, the AR market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.9% through at least 2030, while the VR market will grow by 15% in the same time frame. Thus, Apple's new headset could bring significant profits as the markets evolve.
Overall, Apple has established itself as a solid growth stock over the years, and upcoming events make it a screaming buy this month. If you're considering investing in Apple, be sure to keep these key factors in mind. By focusing on product development, maximizing iPhone profits, and expanding into other areas, Apple has positioned itself for continued success in the future.
SOXL to Big Lows 15 Min CandlesThere is a chance that SOXL might end up filling the gap January 23.
We are currently at the end of the Elliot wave theory so if that proves to be true we should continue to see a very steep decline.
With various reports coming out the only thing I think that would keep it up is good economic reports.
I think you will see SOXL come down to roughly $12.90 where it will test support at around $13.
AAPL has turbulence incoming - path is intactAs Bart would say, yo, what's up dudes? So, like, if you're checkin' out the AAPL stock right now, it's lookin' pretty gnarly. It seems like it's gonna go down more, but the real question is if we're gonna hit the top of the channel or not. Personally, I think we're gonna hit the median of the channel and then bounce from there. But, you know, you gotta be super careful right now 'cause futures just rolled and who knows what kinda turbulence that's gonna bring. So, keep an eye out and don't have a cow, man.
Look at the wave master indicator. significant sell signal with ALL. FOUR. WAVES. in overbought right now. If AAPL breaks the median, then we've got one heck of a drop coming. The last time the waves looked like this? January 3, 2022 near ALL TIME HIGH .
🍎Apple🍎Analyze (Bearish 🦈Shark🦈 Harmonic Pattern)!!! 🍎Apple🍎 was able to make a Bearish 🦈Shark🦈 Harmonic Pattern near the resistance line and PRZ (Price Reversal Zone).
Since I expect that NASDAQ and S&P500 will go down, I believe my Shark will work too.
Also, we can see the Hidden Divergence (HD-) between MACD Indicator and price.👇
Apple Analyze Daily Timeframe (Log Scale /Heikin Ashi)⏰
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AAPL is Overpriced and OutdatedAAPL stock price is unreasonably expensive. It's traded more than 40x of it's declining book value of only 3.5 dollar per share. Not only the stock price is overpriced, their product are overpriced as well. Also Apple product are outdated compared to many other brand. For example iPhone design is outdated compared to Samsung or even some other Chinese brand and the price is sold 5x over the cheaper brand. Not to mention so many other Apple hardware can be found their cheaper alternative except for their software. So the only competitive advantage for AAPL product is on their legacy software iOS and MacOS. On the hardware side it is hard for Apple to increase their competitive value. As they also need to move out their production out of China to much cheaper places, which could add more downward pressure on their stock price. I think APPL stock should drop more than 50% to worth somewhere a third of current price, so it should be somewhere around 50 dollar as starting entry point to buy.
We are using Stock Value Rainbow to evaluate stock valuation based on four valuation metrices: book value, earning, dividend and cash flow. The rainbow color depict the multiples values of all these four factors sum up together. The rainbow above the gray lines represent 1x, 2x, 3x, .., 10x of stock value. While rainbow below the gray line represent 0.8x, 0.6x, 0.4x, 0.2x stock value. The higher the value the more expensive the stock, the lower the value the cheaper it is according to these fundamental or financial valuation metrices.
APPLE showing strong upside based on its AI tech and Cup & HandlCup and Handle has formed on Apple showing strong upside to come
21>7 - Bearish
Price>200 Bullish
RSI>50
There are a few mixed signals with bulls and bears but this is what happens during the transition of a change in direction.
Anyways, we need the price to break up and out of the brim level before we see upside.
Target $177.60
ABOUT APPLE and AI TECH
Apple was founded by Steve Jobs, Steve Wozniak, and Ronald Wayne in 1976, with Wayne leaving the company shortly after.
In 2020, Apple became the first publicly traded U.S. company to reach a market capitalization of $2 trillion.
In the same year, Apple also announced its plans to become carbon neutral across its entire supply chain by 2030.
Apple launched its first 5G-enabled iPhone lineup in late 2020, featuring the iPhone 12, iPhone 12 mini, iPhone 12 Pro, and iPhone 12 Pro Max.
Apple also launched its first over-ear wireless headphones, the AirPods Max, in late 2020.
In 2021, Apple announced a major update to its privacy policies, requiring all app developers to disclose what data they collect and how it is used.
Apple introduced the redesigned iMac with an M1 chip in May 2021, featuring a slim design and seven color options.
Apple has been incorporating AI into its services, such as Apple Music, which uses machine learning to recommend personalized playlists and albums to users based on their listening habits.
Apple uses machine learning algorithms in many of its products and services, such as the Photos app, which can automatically identify and categorize images using facial recognition technology.
Elliott Wave Perspective Favors Further Upside in Apple (AAPL)Cycle from 1.4.2023 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 1.4.2023 low, wave ((1)) ended at 157.38 and pullback in wave ((2)) ended at 143.54 as the 1 hour chart below shows. Internal subdivision of wave ((2)) unfolded as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((1)), wave (A) ended at 148.7 and rally in wave (B) ended at 156.33. Wave (C) lower subdivided into 5 waves impulse. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 151.85 and wave 2 ended at 153.39. Stock resumes lower in wave 3 towards 145.72 and wave 4 ended at 149.17. Final leg wave 5 ended at 143.58 which completed wave (C) of ((2)) in higher degree.
Stock turns higher in wave ((3)) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((2)), wave 1 ended at 147.87 and dips in wave 2 ended at 145.23. Stock resumes higher again in wave 3 towards 153.49 and dips in wave 4 ended at 150.65. Final leg wave 5 ended at 156.30 which completed wave (1). Stock is now correcting cycle from 3.2.2023 low within wave (2) with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave (1), wave A ended at 151.08. Expect the stock to rally in wave B then turns lower again in wave C before ending wave (2) and resumes higher. As far as pivot at 143.58 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
✅APPLE TIME TO SELL|SHORT🔥
✅APPLE is about to retest a key structure level
Which implies a high likelihood of a move down
As some market participants will be taking profit from long positions
While others will find this price level to be good for selling
So as usual we will have a chance to ride the wave of a bearish correction
SHORT🔥
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AAPL Aims to Reach $160 Target in Near FuturePrice action in financial markets often gravitates towards key supply zones, which are areas where selling pressure has previously been strong enough to drive prices lower. Traders and investors often use supply zones as important levels to watch for potential price reversals or to enter short positions.
AAPL is no stranger to this, and when looking at the price action mixed with the key indicators on this 4h timeframe, we can see the last few times that the wave master indicator called a buy and sell:
DEC 10 2021: SELL: 179.50 (-6%)
DEC 30 2021: SELL: 178.19 (-14%)
FEB 03 2022: SELL: 173.00 (final warning -14% before -27%)
JUN 14 2022: BUY: 133.25 (+32%)
JAN 05 2023: BUY: 126.50 (+22.4% so far)
We're not geting a solid sell signal yet, but we're darn close. Look at ALL the waves. red, yellow, white are all overbought and the green wave is almost there. That will be the first time we've seen this since Feb 03 2022 but the chart formation looks more like the DEC 30 sell signal.
I'd be very cautious as a drop is likely to occur over the next 1-2 weeks. Probably won't be super deadly like other drops have been but it'll be enough to kill some late bulls for sure.
Apple to break even higher?Apple - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 157.65 (stop at 152.04)
This is curremtly an actively traded stock. 157.50 has been pivotal.
Short term momentum is bullish.
A break of the recent high at 157.38 should result in a further move higher.
Our outlook is bullish.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Our profit targets will be 171.65 and 173.65
Resistance: 157.50 / 160.00 / 163.50
Support: 152.50 / 149.50 / 143.90
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Apple -> Could It Be More Obvious?Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis .
On the weekly timeframe Apple stock is currently retesting a quite obvious previous resistance area which is turned resistance once again.
Just recently we also had a bullish ema crossover, which is always considered a bullish sign, so from here I do expect a short term rejection away from the support zone and then the longer term continuation towards the upside.
On the daily timeframe it seems like today's candle will close with a massive rejection wick, indicating selling pressure so it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term rejection away from this resistance area.
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
You can also check out my previous analysis of this asset:
APPLE Inverse Head and Shoulders give a new All Time HighApple Inc. (AAPL) has just completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with its Head being the January 03 market Bottom. The Bear Cycle isn't technically over for Apple as the Channel Down that started back on the October 04 2021 Low hasn't yet been broken. In fact since the last two Lower Highs sequences have been +31.11% and +36.78%, the current rally is limited within the red Triangle Zone. As a result we have a short-term target at $165.00.
With the Inverse Head and Shoulders though technically aiming much higher, supported also by a 1W MACD Bullish Cross, if Apple closes a 1W candle above the Channel Down, we will re-buy and target $190.00 on the long-term, which is just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level.
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APPLE SELLPeace be upon you, merchants. Apple stock is negative. with a fracture. Double BOTTOM. It is a strong model and was unable to break a very strong resistance. At the price of 156. There is the possibility of re-testing. The price is 150. And re-disembarkation. to the level of 143. what do you think
Apple, more down side aheadIt is no secret that we are bearish on Apple.
Recent demand for iPhones has gone down rapidly. Revenue and income show sign of the company going ex-growth.
Price is now below the earning "rally".
The gap at 149-145 which should act as strong support is now broken.
We should be seeing more downside toward the 136 level.
On a longer time frame, we expect Apple to retest the low.
Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes. It is not to be taken as investment advice, a personal recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell. Nimbus Capital Solution may or may not take trades based on the idea shared. We employed a hedge fund-liked long/short portfolio strategy which focuses on our portfolio as a holistic trading vehicle rather than on individual stock/trade. We also employ bespoke portfolio management and risk management strategies to reduce our overall risk. Your capital could be at risk should you copy our trade idea blindly. Nimbus Capital Solution takes no responsibility for losses incurred by blind copy traders.