Apple Analysis 03.01.2023Hello Traders,
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I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
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Apple
Careful falling in love with what you see in rear view mirrorsCharts and financials, are great , super useful, would never trade/invest without them.
However, they are rear view mirrors, as in they show us only the past. We have no crystal ball.
If we go into recession, the past growth will be misleading. keep that in mind.
We value the earning power of each business, but we should not ignore that markets are dynamic.
Apple is a good example.
Apple is priced with some build in growth assumptions, yet many analyst and headlines are implied flat or no growth.
We must keep an open mind.
Please learn valuation. Compare cashflow and free cashflow to current prices. Try to get the best deal you can.
Have a great year!
Apple Tests $125Apple kissed the $125 level, near term support. Question remains, expectations of lower earnings...how much has been discounted in the current price? at 18xs fwd it could go lower... we could also see a sell the rumor...Buy the News scenario play out. Strategy...if one owns no Apple share...buying some here is ok... average in
Is Apple about to be 'bitten'?Apple is one of the companies whose stock price is overvalued, and the company is facing several severe issues:
1. Big tech layoffs. If US tech is doing quite poorly and companies are laying off people, they probably won't buy new equipment or software. The fired tech workers probably won't be buying stuff for themselves either, and neither will those that see their colleagues fired.
2. Apple's production in China faces significant problems due to lockdowns or because the 'employees' are revolting. These disruptions hurt the reliability of Apple, as well as its image. Unfortunately, many employees are working and living in awful conditions, which is being exposed. Many ESG funds that hold Apple could end up having to dump their shares based on these concerns.
3. Some US politicians are increasingly worried about the connections between Apple and the CCP. With Apple 'threatening' to remove Twitter from its Appstore while supporting the CCP in an era where tensions between US and China aren't great, we could see Apple face more pressure to move away from China. That could increase their costs significantly while also disrupting production even further.
4. As retail consumers are affected by inflation and high-interest rates, they will spend less on buying new stuff, and many devices/apps aren't necessary. At the same time, Apple has been raising its prices due to increased costs (of production), which might further incentivize customers not to purchase their products/services. As if these weren't enough, some of its new products aren't that much of an upgrade to the previous versions.
5. As the world is moving closer toward open source and open technologies/marketplaces, the 30% tax on the Apple app store looks worse and worse by the day. Based on the above, the free market and politicians in the US might try to break Apple's monopoly, which could initially lower its revenue.
6. Current Apple valuation is 3.4x that of the entire crypto market (stablecoins excluded). This is just too large.
AAPL is trading below all its major moving averages, has broken its old uptrend, and has plenty of room to move down toward that major gap at 96$. Most major US companies have fallen more than 30% and have filled many significant gaps, yet Apple has not. Therefore it is possible to see the stock price go down to those levels in the next few months.
APPL, 10d+/-9.2%falling cycle -9.2% more than 10 days.
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This data is analyzed by robots. Analyze historical trends based on The Adam Theory of Markets (20 moving averages/60 moving averages/120 moving averages/240 moving averages) and estimate the trend in the next 10 days. The white line is the robot's expected price, and the upper and lower horizontal line stop loss and stop profit prices have no financial basis. The results are for reference only.
The rule of 20 for valuation, 100 year looklets look at 150 years of stock prices and see how valuation with inflation played out, and apply the "rule of 20" as a guide. The rule of 20 is a benchmark regression that essential says when PEs and cpi inflation are added together they should be under 20 for stocks to be attractive historically. SPX DJI QQQ NASDAQ:NDX GOLD
Apple - A small bounce for the silly bullsI think we can move up but I would not be surprised to be wrong either. If you have the conviction to go long here, we have a clear descending triangle. I don't foresee a bounce much higher than the first target being possible. I have a lower target that I feel will be hit sooner than later. Not financial advice. DYOR
APPL's TP price for the bears1. Price is trending within the down channel perfectly.
2. Purple color:
The price broke below the horizontal support of the ranging zone (0 to 1).
And using the 1:1 ratio strategy, TP price is expected at the next 100% level (level 2).
3. On the way to level 2, we may want to pay attention to level 1.5, where the level could be a horizontal support.
4. Orange color - another strategy to use in this scenario: Down "N" strategy:
Key move --> rebounce --> (following an N pattern)
After breaking the purple ranging zone 0 to 1 (the rebounce), the market would be highly likely to repeat the key movement (the orange force). Therefore, the bottom of the orange box could also be a strong support.
**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.