Apple Inc. Stock Price Target Lowered Amid Tariff ConcernsApple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is trading at $208.37 after climbing 4.32% in the latest session. Despite the recent bounce, analysts have made downward adjustments to its price outlook ahead of the company’s March 2025 quarterly earnings report. UBS analyst David Vogt has revised Apple’s price target from $236 to $210 while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating. This adjustment comes in response to anticipated U.S. tariffs and potential pressure on production costs.
UBS reported that Apple expedited about one million iPhone shipments during the quarter. This strategy contributed to a modest increase in iPhone revenue, despite flat demand. With the U.S. dollar weakening against major currencies, UBS also raised its March quarter revenue estimate to $95.5 billion, up from $93.5 billion. EPS forecasts were adjusted accordingly.
On the other hand, MoffettNathanson Research downgraded its price target from $184 to $141 and reiterated a “Sell” rating. The firm highlighted risks related to trade tensions, increasing manufacturing costs due to tariffs, and slowing innovation. According to their analysis, Apple faces difficult choices—either absorb high tariff costs or reconfigure supply chains at a premium. Both options are expected to affect profitability.
Technical Analysis
The stock has rebounded from a key support level near $170, which aligns with a long-term demand zone visible on the 3-day chart. It has broken above the 200-day moving average of $192.82 and now trades slightly below the 100-day moving average of $213.53 and 50-day MA at $229.03.
Momentum indicators suggest a possible continuation. The RSI stands at 45.67, showing recovering strength. If AAPL holds above $200, it may retest the $197 support level before targeting $260.10. A rejection could lead to a retest of the $170 support area.
Appleinc
AAPL Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-16AAPL Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-16)
Below is a synthesized analysis of the AAPL data and the five model reports:
──────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF EACH MODEL’S KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI Report – Observes a slightly recovered 5‐minute bounce but a generally volatile, declining daily trend. – Notes bearish technicals (price below EMAs, RSI recovering from oversold levels but MACD still below signal) and mixed sentiment (max pain at $202.50 with heavy put volume). – Recommends a trade on the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and proximity (–2.60% from current price).
• Claude/Anthropic Report – Highlights AAPL trading below key EMAs with persistent bearish momentum on both short and daily timeframes and a downtrend of –17% over 30 days. – Points out oversold conditions on the 5‑minute chart with continuing bearish pressure on the daily charts, alongside caution from negative news. – Chooses the $190 PUT as the best blend of risk and reward given its liquidity and technical setup.
• Gemini/Google Report – Emphasizes AAPL’s price below intraday and daily EMAs, with the short-term bounce near the lower Bollinger Band offering a minor contradiction. – Underlines strong bearish sentiment supported by high VIX and negative news, while noting resistance at the call side. – Recommends a bearish pick – the $187.50 PUT – though with a similar rationale as the others (i.e. trading just out‐of‐the‐money to capture a move).
• Llama/Meta Report – Notes bearish indicators including price under moving averages, low RSI, and MACD below the signal line. – Recognizes key support and resistance levels (supports near $194 and resistance near $197) and the opposing pressure suggested by max pain. – Ends up favoring a moderately bearish setup with the $190 PUT given its attractive liquidity and risk profile.
• DeepSeek Report – Reviews the technical and sentiment picture and concludes a moderately bearish position, underscored by negative news and broad put interest. – Emphasizes that a break from near-term support (around $194) could steer the price toward the $190 area. – Also recommends the $190 PUT, noting that its setup offers a reasonable risk/reward profile.
────────────────────────────── 2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: – All reports agree that AAPL is trading in a bearish environment overall, with price below key moving averages and a downtrend on daily charts. – There is a common focus on the options chain, where puts at or below $190 are highly liquid and carry significant open interest. – Every model, despite minor nuances, leans toward buying a naked PUT as the trade idea for this weekly options expiry. – All analysts recommend an entry at market open.
• Disagreement: – One model (Gemini/Google) slightly deviates by suggesting a $187.50 PUT as an alternative to $190, while the majority favor the $190 strike. – The exact profit target and stop‐loss levels differ somewhat between models, but all align on the general risk controls and short-term nature due to weekly expiration.
────────────────────────────── 3. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDED TRADE
Overall Market Direction: • Consensus is moderately bearish. Despite a brief short-term bounce noted on the intraday charts, the dominant trend and negative news sentiment favor further downside.
Recommended Trade: • Trade: Buy a single-leg, naked PUT option on AAPL • Expiration: Weekly (April 17, 2025) • Strike and Price: The $190 PUT (with an Ask around $0.83; it is about 2.60% below the current price) • Strategy Rationale: – This strike is liquid (high volume and open interest) and is supported by the bearish bias from momentum indicators and negative sentiment. – Although the premium of ~$0.83 is a bit above the preferred $0.30–$0.60 band, it is justified by the sharper risk/reward setup in this environment. • Entry Timing: At market open • Proposed Risk/Reward: – Profit Target: Approximately a 50% gain on the premium (target near $1.25) – Stop-Loss: Approximately a 50% loss on the premium (stop-loss near $0.42) • Confidence Level: 70% • Key Risks and Considerations: – A brief intraday bounce (short-term oversold recovery) could push prices above support, triggering the stop-loss. – Any unexpected news or a reversal in overall market sentiment may rapidly alter the risk profile given the short-dated expiration. – Monitor price action closely at open, as weekly options are particularly sensitive to early volatility.
────────────────────────────── 4. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "AAPL", "direction": "put", "strike": 190.0, "expiry": "2025-04-17", "confidence": 0.70, "profit_target": 1.25, "stop_loss": 0.42, "size": 1, "entry_price": 0.83, "entry_timing": "open" }
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
Apple ($AAPL): Shares Jump After Tariff Exemption on ElectronicsApple Inc. (AAPL) experienced a significant rally on Monday, climbing as high as $212.94 before settling around $206.05 as of writing, reflecting a 4.5% intraday gain. The spike followed the U.S. government's decision over the weekend to exclude smartphones and other electronics from the latest round of tariffs on Chinese imports. This move provided relief for tech companies like Apple that rely on global supply chains.
As of 3:38 PM EDT, Apple shares Volume reached 258.63 million shares, indicating heightened investor interest. The favorable news also triggered substantial profits for derivatives traders. One bullish options trade worth $5 million, opened on Friday, was reportedly valued at around $14 million by Monday morning—a 180% gain as per Reuters.
According to Capital Market Laboratories CEO Ophir Gottlieb, the trade may have been a calculated bet anticipating favorable policy moves affecting Apple or broader China-related tariffs.
Technical Analysis
The 2-day chart shows a strong bullish reaction from a major support zone near $172, where the price rebounded sharply following the news. The current price at $206 is trading slightly below key moving averages, including the 50-day at $231.81, 100-day MA at $228.36, and 200-day MA at $205.91
Price action also broke above a previous resistance area of $196, turning that level into new support. If momentum holds, Apple could aim for a move toward the $260.10 recent high. However, technical structure suggests a possible pullback before further upside continuation. Overall, the rebound and volume surge indicate strong buyer interest in the wake of the tariff announcement.
APPLE Best buy opportunity of the last 6 years.Back in August 02 2024 (see chart below), we introduced this model on Apple Inc. (AAPL) that had high probabilities of success at predicting Cycle peaks:
We may have not hit $280 but $260 is close enough especially if you are a long-term investor that values buying low and selling high.
Now that the price has corrected by -35% and just hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 10 years (since July 2016), it is time to revisit this macro-model once again.
As you can see, -35% corrections have been present on every Cycle since the January 2009 bottom of the Housing Crisis. The pattern that the stock follows is very specific and it starts with a prolonged correction, the Bear Cycle essentially, which is a lengthy correction phase, such as the 2008 Housing Crisis, the 2015/16 China slowdown and the 2022 Inflation Crisis.
Then a very structured uptrend phase starts in the form of a Channel Up that leads the market to its first peak, followed by a shorter, quicker correction phase that tests the 1M MA50 and rebounds. The rebound is the final bull phase of the Cycle, usually strong and sharp and leads to the eventual Cycle Top and then starts then new Bear Cycle (prolonged correction).
Right now the current 4-month correction is technically, based on this model, the new shorter correction. Being more than -35% in size, the last one larger than this was the previous short correction of the last Trade War in October 2018 - January 2019 (-38%).
The similarities don't stop here but extend to the 1M RSI as well, which just entered its 25-year mega Buy Zone that has been holding since December 2000 and the Dotcom Crash! In fact the last time Apple's 1M RSI was this low was in June 2013, which was the bottom of the 1st short correction on our chart.
This remarkable symmetry just shows how similar the current phase is with its previous ones and if the symmetry continues to hold, we should be expecting a strong recovery to start. Even if the price makes a slightly deeper low as -38% (like the January 2019 bottom), we may still expect the minimum rise that it had all those years shown on the chart, +145%, which translates to a potential $390 Target long-term.
It is in times like this, that patient long-term investors filter out the news noise, make their unbiased moves and maximize their profit.
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AAPL (Apple): Has a Large Correction Begun? More Downside Ahead?On this chart, we are currently tracking the potential beginning of a larger downtrend, which could be a larger-degree Wave 4 correction. It is possible that a larger-degree third wave topped in December 2024 at $260, and for now, I am assuming this is the case. While further confirmation is needed, the price has already broken below our first signal line, which supports the idea that a larger decline has begun—unless the next rally develops into a clear impulse structure.
At the moment, the price appears to be in the late stages of Wave C of Circle Wave A to the downside. Immediate resistance sits between $220 and $224, and only a break above $224 would indicate that Circle Wave B to the upside may have already started.
One important note: Circle Wave B could technically overshoot to the upside, meaning that if Circle Wave A completed as a three-wave pullback, we could even see a new high in the next bounce before the larger downtrend continues. This is something to keep an open mind about, as it is still early to confirm a substantial top on the long-term chart.
For now, as long as resistance at $224 holds, the assumption remains that Circle Wave A needs one more low before a stronger bounce occurs.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Forming a Potential W-Pattern – A Bullish SignApple Inc. (AAPL) Forming a Potential W-Pattern – A Bullish Signal
Apple Inc. (AAPL) appears to be shaping a significant W-pattern, a well-known technical formation often associated with bullish momentum. From a psychological standpoint, this pattern suggests a potential buying opportunity.
Should fundamental factors align with this technical setup, I anticipate a strong upward move, targeting my 3 TP levels at $245, $250, and $260.
To maximize profitability and maintain a disciplined approach, traders should consider managing risk effectively.
Holding positions for optimal gains becomes easier when avoiding excessive leverage—or better yet, trading with no leverage at all.
Trade with caution.
Always align technical insights with fundamental analysis before making investment decisions.
Apple Inc. (AAPL) Technical Analysis –Potential Bullish Reversalhello guys!
let's analysis Apple!
Support Area (~$219 - $221): This zone has previously acted as a strong demand level, preventing further decline.
Target Area (~$252 - $254): A key resistance level where the price might face selling pressure.
Candlestick Signal – Bullish Engulfing:
The engulfing pattern indicates a potential reversal, signaling bullish momentum after a decline.
If confirmed with increased volume, it strengthens the possibility of an upward move.
Trade Setup:
Entry: Around the current price level (~$227).
Stop-Loss: To minimize downside risk, below the support area (~$219).
Take-Profit Target: Around $252 - $254, aligning with the resistance zone.
Confirmation Factors:
A strong breakout above $230 would validate bullish momentum.
A retest of support with a bounce would reinforce the setup.
The bullish setup would be invalidated if the price falls below $219.
Conclusion:
Bullish Bias: The pattern suggests a recovery towards the target zone.
Key Level to Watch: $230 as confirmation for an upward move.
Risk Management: Stop-loss below support is crucial to limit losses.
Apple Surges 3% in Premarket Amid AI Optimism & Strong ForecastApple Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ) has seen a notable 3.46% surge in premarket trading, defying concerns over declining China sales. The upward momentum follows an optimistic sales forecast, hinting at a resurgence in iPhone demand fueled by Apple's strategic adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) features.
Earnings Outlook
Apple’s latest earnings report revealed a nuanced performance, with robust overall revenue counterbalanced by a slight dip in iPhone sales. Despite a shortfall in China, where revenue declined 11% to $18.5 billion—falling short of the projected $21.57 billion—Apple’s services unit exhibited strong growth, climbing 14% year-over-year to $26.34 billion. This exceeded Wall Street expectations of $26.09 billion, reinforcing Apple’s ability to diversify revenue streams beyond hardware sales.
CEO Tim Cook emphasized that Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI-powered suite of features, is playing a crucial role in boosting iPhone sales where available. However, Apple’s cautious approach to AI investments, unlike its peers such as Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META), has insulated its stock from recent market turbulence. The restrained AI strategy aligns with Apple's focus on integrating AI within its hardware ecosystem, enhancing device functionality without excessive capital expenditure on data centers.
The company posted earnings of $2.42 per share on revenue of $124.3 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.36 EPS on $124.12 billion revenue. While iPhone sales, accounting for nearly half of Apple's revenue, declined to $69.14 billion from $69.70 billion year-over-year, the broader growth trajectory suggests a potential iPhone rebound in FY26.
Technical Outlook
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:AAPL is demonstrating strong bullish patterns. The stock is currently up 3.41%, benefiting from the renewed confidence in its growth trajectory. Prior to this recent rally, Apple shares had experienced a 15% decline since late December 2024. However, the current price action suggests a recovery, with NASDAQ:AAPL reclaiming 10% of its lost value, forming a falling wedge pattern—a historically bullish signal.
The premarket surge sets up the possibility of a gap-up pattern at market open, a strong bullish indicator that could further accelerate buying pressure. In the event of a pullback, immediate support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a key level that often dictates price reversals in technical analysis.
The China Factor and AI’s Role in Future Growth
While Apple’s sales slump in China remains a wildcard, analysts expect a recovery once Apple Intelligence is introduced in the region. The lack of AI features has been cited as a major reason for weaker-than-expected sales in the Chinese market. TD Cowen analysts predict that demand could rebound once Apple secures a local partner to facilitate AI integration, boosting sales in a highly competitive market.
Moreover, Apple's performance relative to its tech peers remains strong. In 2024, Apple stock surged 30.07%, outperforming Microsoft’s 12.09% increase but trailing Meta’s impressive 65.42% rise. Apple’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 31.12, compared to Microsoft’s 29.2 and Meta’s 26, indicating sustained investor confidence in Apple’s long-term growth potential.
AAPL Positioned for Further Gains
Apple’s ability to weather market challenges, coupled with its strategic AI rollout, positions it favorably for continued growth. The bullish technical setup, strong fundamentals, and AI-driven sales optimism indicate that AAPL could maintain its upward trajectory. Investors should monitor key support and resistance levels, as well as further developments regarding Apple Intelligence’s expansion into new markets.
With analysts raising price targets and market sentiment improving, Apple’s stock could be on track for a sustained rally in 2024 and beyond.
Apple Breaks Downtrend and Key Resistance Ahead of Earnings...!APPLE has broken the downtrend as well as the important resistance level of 237-238 dollars and currently trying to sustain above it just before the earning report. As investors/traders, we should wait till the earning report which will be available on 30 JAN before taking the trade.
Apple: Bearish Movements Face the Most Important Barrier Apple's stock has experienced a decline of over 9% from its peak price of $260 , recorded during the last days of December. The stock has seen a reduction in market confidence, with selling positions now dominating.
Crucial Barrier: The current $234 zone serves as a critical support level, where the upward trendline, the 100-period moving average, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level converge. This is now the most solid barrier to consider for the long-term upward trend. Persistent bearish oscillations that manage to break below this level could dismantle the current bullish formation and pave the way for a potential sustained bearish movement.
MACD: Both MACD lines maintain a negative slope, and the histogram oscillates below the indicator's neutral 0 level. This indicates that, on average, bearish oscillations in recent periods have been significantly stronger, and selling pressure may increase as the histogram continues to diverge further from the 0 line.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
AAPL/USD: Potential Bullish Opportunity!AAPL/USD: Potential Bullish Opportunity! 📈
Here’s what I’m seeing:
Buyer/Seller Activity: Buyers seem to be gaining the upper hand.
Blue Box: A promising correction zone where I believe the dip may end.
My approach:
I’ll monitor the lower time frames (1H) for market structure breaks bullish for confirmation, bearish as a caution signal.
Keep your eyes peeled for action in this zone. Boost, comment, and follow for sharper insights! 🚀
Let me tell you, this is something special. These insights, these setups—they’re not just good; they’re game-changers. I've spent years refining my approach, and the results speak for themselves. People are always asking, "How do you spot these opportunities?" It’s simple: experience, clarity, and a focus on high-probability moves.
Want to know how I use heatmaps, cumulative volume delta, and volume footprint techniques to find demand zones with precision? I’m happy to share—just send me a message. No cost, no catch. I believe in helping people make smarter decisions.
Here are some of my recent analyses. Each one highlights key opportunities:
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Apple Stock W-Pattern: Another Bullish Entry on the HorizonOver the past few weeks, we’ve repeatedly seen the same W pattern forming in Apple’s stock. I believe the stock is still in an uptrend, and the next good entry point could be during the downswing of the second leg. I’m planning to open a long position.
Whether I’ll close this position at around $260 as a day trade or decide to hold it longer is something I’ll let you know soon. What’s your take on this? Let me know!
Stay tuned, and I’ll catch you in the next one — peace!
Apple - A Correction Is Actually Inevitable!Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is preparing for a minor cycle correction:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After creating five consecutive bullish breaks and retests of the previous all time high, it seems like Apple is one of these stocks which is perfectly following technical analysis. Considering that and the current rising channel pattern, it is quite likely that we will now see a short term correction.
Levels to watch: $190, $240
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Exploring Apple's Latest AI: What Does the Future Hold? Apple's recent announcement of Apple Intelligence, coupled with the launch of a new iMac, has sent ripples through the tech industry and the financial markets. While the long-term impact of these innovations on Apple's stock price remains to be seen, initial market reactions suggest a positive outlook.
Apple Intelligence: A Game-Changer?
Apple's foray into artificial intelligence (AI) with Apple Intelligence marks a significant milestone for the company. This new AI framework is designed to enhance various Apple products and services, from the iPhone to the Mac. By integrating AI capabilities into its ecosystem, Apple aims to provide a more personalized, efficient, and intuitive user experience.
Key features of Apple Intelligence include:
• Enhanced Siri: A more intelligent and capable virtual assistant.
• Advanced Image Processing: Improved photo and video editing capabilities.
• Natural Language Processing: More sophisticated text analysis and generation.
While the full potential of Apple Intelligence is yet to be realized, the initial response from analysts and investors has been cautiously optimistic. Many believe that AI could be a significant growth driver for Apple, particularly in areas such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and autonomous vehicles.
The New iMac: A Refreshing Update
The new iMac, powered by the M4 chip, represents a significant upgrade over its predecessor. With improved performance, stunning visuals, and a sleek design, the new iMac is poised to attract both consumers and professionals. However, the impact of this product launch on Apple's stock price is likely to be more modest compared to the introduction of Apple Intelligence.
Market Reaction and Future Outlook
In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, Apple's stock price experienced a modest increase. While this initial positive reaction is encouraging, it is important to note that the long-term impact of these innovations will depend on various factors, including:
• Consumer Adoption: The success of Apple Intelligence and the new iMac will ultimately depend on consumer adoption.
• Competitive Landscape: The intense competition from other tech giants, such as Google, Microsoft, and Samsung, could impact Apple's market share and profitability.
• Global Economic Conditions: Economic factors, such as interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical tensions, can influence investor sentiment and stock prices.
While Apple has a strong track record of innovation and financial performance, it is crucial to approach the company's future with a balanced perspective. While Apple Intelligence and the new iMac represent exciting developments, it is too early to predict their full impact on the company's bottom line.
In conclusion, Apple's recent announcements have generated significant buzz and positive sentiment among investors. However, the long-term trajectory of Apple's stock price will depend on a variety of factors, including the successful execution of its AI strategy and the overall health of the global economy. As Apple continues to push the boundaries of technology, investors will be closely watching to see how these innovations translate into sustainable growth and shareholder value.
AAPL Apple Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought AAPL before this major breakout:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of AAPL Apple prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 232.5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-1,
for a premium of approximately $4.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Apple at a Crossroad – Surfing to 238 or Wiping Out to 226?Alright, trading family, AAPL is catching some chop, and it’s make-or-break time. If we dip, we could slide to 229.25 or even 226.90 before the bulls try paddling back. But if buyers show up, we might ride the wave to 234.79—and if we break through there, 238.56 is the next stop.
Key Levels:
Support: 229.25 – If this breaks, 226.90 could be the next target.
Bounce Zone: 2 34.79 – Bulls need to reclaim this for more upside.
Breakout Level: 238.56 – Pushing above this opens the door for higher moves.
It’s one of those moments—either we ride the wave higher, or we get dragged under and wait for the next set. Keep your eyes peeled; this one’s gonna get interesting.
What do you think—are we riding this one up or taking a dip first? Drop your thoughts, follow, and share if this chart got you prepped for the next move.
Mindbloome trader
APPLE Soars! Long Trade Achieves Key Targets – Bulls in ControlApple has displayed a strong uptrend since the long entry at 184.92 on 7th May, 2024, reaching multiple profit targets as the bullish momentum continued.
Key Levels
Entry: 184.92 – The long position was initiated as the price broke above this level, indicating bullish strength.
Stop-Loss (SL): 174.50 – Positioned below recent support to manage risk and protect against a downside move.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 197.80 – The first target was achieved, confirming the continuation of the uptrend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 218.65 – Bullish momentum carried the price to this level.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 239.50 – A further extension of the rally will bring the price to this target which looks very likely.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 252.38 – The final profit target, indicating a significant uptrend since the entry.
Trend Analysis
Apple's price is well above the Risological Dotted trendline, affirming the strength of the uptrend. The sustained upward movement suggests strong market sentiment, with the potential for further gains beyond the final target.
The long trade on Apple has performed exceptionally well, with multiple targets reached. The final target at 252.38 reflects a robust rally, supported by the Risological Dotted trendline and consistent buying interest.
Apple's iPhone 16 Pre-Order Struggles: A Buying Opportunity?Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AAPL ) has always been a tech behemoth, but its latest iPhone 16 launch appears to be facing some turbulence. Analysts are reporting weaker-than-expected pre-orders, with the first weekend sales estimated at around 37 million units, a 12.7% dip compared to last year. But could this moment of weakness actually present an opportunity for investors? Let's dive into the technical and fundamental aspects of Apple's current standing.
Weak iPhone 16 Pre-Orders and AI Lag
The most significant concern surrounding Apple’s recent performance stems from the iPhone 16’s pre-orders. Analysts, including Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities, project a 12.7% decline in pre-orders compared to last year, underscoring a drop in demand for Apple’s latest flagship device. This decline in demand is primarily attributed to Apple’s sluggish pace in the artificial intelligence (AI) race.
While AI innovation has taken center stage in tech, Apple has yet to make significant strides in this area. The lack of AI features in the iPhone 16 has left many potential buyers underwhelmed, especially in China, where local competitors like Huawei are ahead in integrating cutting-edge AI into their devices. In fact, Apple has been knocked out of the top five smartphone sellers in China for the first time—a sobering signal of the challenges ahead.
The AI sector is rapidly expanding, and Apple’s reliance on OpenAI’s technology for AI features in its iPhones is becoming a liability, especially given the Chinese government’s stringent policies against foreign AI technologies. If Apple does not address this gap soon, its position in the global smartphone market could face more significant challenges.
Despite these obstacles, Apple is not out of the race. The company has a history of overcoming setbacks and bouncing back stronger. Apple's short-term hurdles might be part of a larger, strategic approach. Many analysts speculate that Apple could be holding back major feature releases for the holiday season, a time when consumer spending surges. If enhanced AI capabilities are introduced in the coming months, especially in tandem with the shopping season, Apple could see a significant boost in sales.
Moreover, Apple’s foray into health tech with the new FDA-approved sleep apnea detection feature for the Apple Watch Series 10 shows that the company is still innovating in other areas. This feature could be a game-changer for millions of people with undiagnosed sleep disorders, opening up a new market segment for Apple’s wearables.
Technical Analysis: AAPL’s 3% Decline and Key Support Zones
Now, turning to the technical aspect, NASDAQ:AAPL stock is down 3% during Monday’s trading session, marking a pullback from its recent highs. While this decline has raised eyebrows, it’s important to note that Apple’s stock has been in a continuous uptrend since June 2019, showing incredible resilience over the years.
The stock's recent decline is partly due to lower-than-expected iPhone 16 pre-orders and broader concerns over its lag in AI innovation. However, NASDAQ:AAPL stock has formed a major support zone at the $125 pivot level. This zone correlates with the consolidation area observed on November 30, 2023, marking a potential bounce point for the stock.
The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the mid-50s, suggesting that while the stock isn’t oversold, it’s approaching levels that could attract buyers. Additionally, NASDAQ:AAPL is still trading above several key moving averages, offering further support for a potential reversal. Investors looking for a technical entry point might find this level particularly attractive, especially if the stock can hold the $125 support level and begin to rally.
Why Apple Stock May Still Be a Buy
Despite weaker pre-orders and concerns about AI innovation, there are several reasons why NASDAQ:AAPL remains a compelling buy at this stage:
1. Strategic Timing: Apple often introduces new features and technologies closer to the holiday season. It’s plausible that the company is withholding some of its most compelling AI advancements for the peak shopping months in November and December.
2. AI Potential: While Apple may currently lag in AI, its history of integrating groundbreaking features into its ecosystem should not be overlooked. If Apple rolls out significant AI updates within the next 12-18 months, it could trigger a renewed interest in its product line and drive stock price appreciation.
3. Long-Term Growth: Apple’s stock has demonstrated long-term growth and resilience, bouncing back from setbacks in the past. Its ability to navigate challenges in China, coupled with a potential holiday-season boost, positions NASDAQ:AAPL for a recovery in 2024.
4. Health Tech Advancements: The FDA’s recent approval of Apple’s sleep apnea detection feature for the Apple Watch further strengthens its position in the health tech market, which could open up a lucrative revenue stream. With 30 million Americans affected by sleep apnea, this feature could see widespread adoption, boosting sales of the Apple Watch Series 10 and Ultra 2 models.
Final Thoughts
Apple's current dip, driven by weaker iPhone 16 pre-orders and a lack of AI innovation, may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors. While the stock is facing short-term headwinds, its strong fundamentals, history of innovation, and potential AI advancements in the coming months could set the stage for a strong rebound.
Investors should closely monitor Apple’s performance in the upcoming holiday season, as this could be a critical period for the company to regain momentum. For now, the $125 support level may provide an ideal entry point for those looking to capitalize on any future upside. As always, it's important to stay informed on new developments and keep an eye on Apple’s evolving strategies, particularly in AI and health tech.
Apple Loses €13 Billion Tax Battle with the EUApple Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) has suffered a significant legal setback as the European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled against the company in a high-profile tax case, requiring it to pay €13 billion ($14.4 billion) in back taxes to Ireland. This decision comes after years of litigation and represents a major victory for the European Commission’s ongoing efforts to crack down on so-called “sweetheart” tax deals that give multinationals an unfair advantage.
The ECJ’s ruling overturns a previous 2020 decision by a lower court that had favored Apple, signaling a renewed focus on holding large corporations accountable for exploiting loopholes in European tax laws. The ruling not only has financial implications for Apple but also sets a precedent for how the EU will handle similar cases in the future.
Key Details of the Ruling
In 2016, Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition chief, accused Ireland of granting Apple illegal tax benefits that unfairly favored the tech giant and distorted competition. The case focused on tax rulings granted by Ireland that allowed Apple to channel billions in profits through the country at a tax rate as low as 0.005%, far below the standard corporate tax rates.
Apple and Ireland both challenged the ruling in the EU’s General Court, which initially sided with the tech company in 2020, arguing that the European Commission had not sufficiently proven that Apple received a selective economic advantage. However, the ECJ has now reversed this decision, reaffirming the Commission’s stance that the tax arrangements constituted illegal state aid.
Impact on Apple’s Finances and Market Position
While the €13 billion tax bill is substantial, it represents a fraction of Apple’s vast cash reserves. However, the ruling could influence the company’s financial strategies and complicate its tax planning across Europe. Apple has been vocal in its defense, insisting that it has always paid taxes in accordance with the law and that the case is more about jurisdiction than tax evasion.
“This case has never been about how much tax we pay but which government we are required to pay it to,” Apple stated after the ruling. The company argued that its income was already subject to taxation in the U.S. and that the EU was attempting to change the rules retroactively.
The “Double Irish” Tax Scheme: A Closer Look
Central to Apple’s tax practices was the now-defunct “Double Irish” tax strategy, which allowed multinational companies to route profits through Ireland to minimize their tax liabilities. This involved transferring profits to an Irish subsidiary, which then paid the money to another entity registered in Ireland but taxed elsewhere, often in a tax haven like Bermuda.
Although Ireland shut down this tax loophole in 2014 under pressure from the EU and the U.S., the ECJ ruling underscores the long-term implications of such arrangements. The decision may also encourage the European Commission to scrutinize other tax agreements, signaling a broader crackdown on similar schemes used by other tech giants.
### Technical Analysis: AAPL Stock in Focus
Apple’s stock ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) has experienced turbulence following the ECJ’s ruling, dipping by 1% in Monday’s extended trading session. The decline was not solely due to the court’s decision; it also reflects investor concerns about the broader market environment and the recent iPhone 16 launch, which did not provide the immediate boost some had hoped for.
However, from a technical perspective, Apple’s stock remains in a promising position. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 60, indicating that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, which is a healthy sign for potential upward momentum. Moreover, NASDAQ:AAPL is trading above its key moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day MAs, suggesting that the overall trend remains positive despite recent setbacks.
The Path Ahead: Risks and Opportunities
The ECJ ruling may create short-term headwinds for Apple, both financially and reputationally. However, the company’s strong market position, diversified revenue streams, and continued innovation in technology could help it weather this storm. Apple’s commitment to paying all taxes owed, regardless of jurisdiction, is likely to resonate with investors who value corporate responsibility.
For the EU, this case represents a significant milestone in its quest to create a level playing field for all businesses operating within its borders. The ruling sends a clear message that the bloc will not tolerate tax avoidance strategies that undermine fair competition, and it may embolden further actions against other tech giants.
Conclusion
Apple’s €13 billion tax setback in the EU is a critical moment in the ongoing battle between multinational corporations and global tax authorities. While the financial impact on Apple may be manageable, the ruling has broader implications for corporate governance and regulatory compliance across the tech industry.
For investors, the current dip in Apple’s stock presents a moment to reassess the company’s long-term potential amid evolving legal and economic landscapes. With strong technical indicators and a robust business model, NASDAQ:AAPL remains a key player, but vigilance is necessary as the company navigates its complex legal challenges.
Apple Inc & the iPhone 16 Launch: What Lies Ahead for the Giant?Apple Inc. ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) is set to host its highly anticipated iPhone 16 launch event on Monday, September 9, 2024. This event, widely considered Apple’s most important of the year, comes at a pivotal time for the tech giant, as it struggles to convince investors and consumers alike that its flagship product still has room for innovation and growth.
iPhone 16 Launch: What’s New?
The iPhone 16 lineup, including the iPhone 16, 16 Plus, 16 Pro, and 16 Pro Max, will be the focal point of the event. However, industry analysts, including Bloomberg, have indicated that the new iPhones will not feature significant design changes compared to their predecessors, the iPhone 15 series. The base models will see minor upgrades like faster processors, increased storage capacity, and the inclusion of the action button previously exclusive to the Pro models.
The Pro versions will boast slightly larger screens, slimmer bezels, improved processors, more advanced AI features, and enhanced camera capabilities. However, these iterative updates might struggle to capture the excitement that previous models once did, reflecting Apple’s current challenge in the fiercely competitive smartphone market.
Declining iPhone Sales and Revenue Concerns
Apple’s iPhone remains its most important revenue driver, yet the segment has shown signs of slowing growth. In the most recent quarter, iPhone sales revenue fell to $32.29 billion from $39.66 billion a year earlier, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer electronics market. Over the first half of 2024, iPhone sales dipped from $156 billion to $154 billion year-over-year, highlighting the difficulties Apple faces in reigniting demand.
The broader issue for Apple lies in its perceived stagnation; incremental upgrades in the iPhone 16 may not be enough to drive substantial sales growth. This problem is compounded by changing consumer habits, as people now tend to hold onto their iPhones for 3 to 4 years before upgrading, compared to shorter upgrade cycles in the past.
Apple’s other hardware segments, such as the iPad, face similar challenges. While iPad sales rose to $7.1 billion in the last quarter, the line’s growth prospects remain questionable due to the lack of distinguishing features that set it apart from larger iPhones or other tablets.
Expanding Services: Apple’s Growing Revenue Driver
While iPhone and hardware sales may be slowing, Apple’s services segment continues to show resilience, growing from $81.7 billion in Q2 2023 to over $85.7 billion in the latest quarter. This high-margin segment, encompassing Apple Pay, Arcade, Music, News, and the App Store, has become a critical revenue driver as the company navigates challenging hardware markets.
However, even with robust growth in services, the company’s overall valuation remains under scrutiny. Apple’s $3.4 trillion market cap, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33.63 and a forward EV-to-sales ratio of 8.47, has drawn skepticism from prominent investors, including Warren Buffett, who has recently trimmed his stake in the company. As Apple’s core revenue sources face headwinds, the question of whether its valuation can be justified looms large.
Technical Analysis: Potential Downside Ahead?
From a technical perspective, Apple’s stock chart is flashing warning signs. Recently, the stock has formed a double-top pattern, a classic bearish signal, with a neckline around $195.80. Should this level break, it could trigger a deeper correction, aligning with broader concerns over Apple’s growth trajectory.
Key support levels to monitor include $218, where a trendline support intersects with significant historical price action, followed by $207, which aligns with previous breakout levels. A failure to hold these zones could see the stock retest the critical $196 support, near its 200-day moving average. Conversely, resistance looms near $233, a level that coincides with recent 1 Month High and where investors may look to lock in gains amid a potentially volatile period.
Competitive Pressures: Huawei’s Tri-Fold Phone Steals the Spotlight
Adding to Apple’s challenges, Huawei has captured attention with its new tri-fold smartphone, the Mate XT, which has already amassed 2.7 million pre-orders. This launch underscores the growing competition Apple faces, particularly in China, where it recently fell out of the top five smartphone vendors. As Huawei and other Chinese manufacturers push the envelope with innovative designs and features, Apple’s lack of a folding phone remains a glaring omission in its product lineup.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Apple
As Apple gears up for its iPhone 16 launch, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The company’s ability to excite consumers and investors with its new lineup will be closely scrutinized, especially given the stock’s recent technical weakness and ongoing fundamental challenges. While Apple’s robust services segment provides a buffer, the question of whether this alone can sustain its lofty valuation remains unanswered. For now, Apple’s near-term fortunes may hinge on how well the market receives the iPhone 16 and whether it can navigate an increasingly complex competitive landscape.