AAPL @ daily @ are 120$ only a quest of time this week ?Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decision ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
Applelong
APPLE @ Daily @ Basic Scenarios after all-time high 2015Main DownSide Trend - 132.84 (2015/07/20) & 123.60 (2015/11/04) - BreakedUp 2016/08/01
The question i am asking myself is: "Are all bearish formation are processed - and be left behind ???"
the SellOff day in August`15
the selling pressure in january`16
the trendreversal in hune`16 & july`16
the DownSide Gap in may`16 & august`16
From there the actuallity TradingBox is essential - for higehr prices !!! `Cause it confirms only waht iam trying to explain. How ever, i am thuiking the chart speaks for itself. A good price action above 112.52 & 108.13 while the next 5 trading days next week should animate more traders to except a better development again - and even as consequence create a new upside trend into 123.79 & 119.94 at least. Before it again goes to 134.63 at least (even all-time high) and higher !?
But don`t get euphoric !!!
I am personally pretty neutral, `cause this autumn we`ve got a sideway trend under the dash ...
Only when AAPL trade this week above the TradingBox (112.52 & 108.13) this week - so in the next 5 days - i`ll get long again probably :)
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)
Best regards
Aaron
AAPL Long 2016/20172016/11/17. Apple stock predictions for next months and years.
Apple stock price predictions for November 2016.
The forecast for beginning of November 113. Maximum value 124, while minimum 107. Averaged Apple stock price for month 115. Price at the end 117, change for November 3.54%.
Apple stock predictions for December 2016.
The forecast for beginning of December 117. Maximum value 128, while minimum 114. Averaged Apple stock price for month 120. Price at the end 121, change for December 3.42%.
Apple stock price predictions for January 2017.
The forecast for beginning of January 121. Maximum value 135, while minimum 119. Averaged Apple stock price for month 126. Price at the end 127, change for January 4.96%.
Apple stock predictions for February 2017.
The forecast for beginning of February 127. Maximum value 137, while minimum 121. Averaged Apple stock price for month 129. Price at the end 129, change for February 1.57%.
Apple stock price predictions for March 2017.
The forecast for beginning of March 129. Maximum value 143, while minimum 127. Averaged Apple stock price for month 134. Price at the end 135, change for March 4.65%.
Apple stock predictions for April 2017.
The forecast for beginning of April 135. Maximum value 137, while minimum 121. Averaged Apple stock price for month 131. Price at the end 129, change for April -4.44%.
Apple stock price predictions for May 2017.
The forecast for beginning of May 129. Maximum value 143, while minimum 127. Averaged Apple stock price for month 134. Price at the end 135, change for May 4.65%.
Apple stock predictions for June 2017.
The forecast for beginning of June 135. Maximum value 136, while minimum 120. Averaged Apple stock price for month 130. Price at the end 128, change for June -5.19%.
Apple stock price predictions for July 2017.
The forecast for beginning of July 128. Maximum value 142, while minimum 126. Averaged Apple stock price for month 133. Price at the end 134, change for July 4.69%.
RED-Weekly
BLUE-Monthly Channel from 2009
Purple- Daily Channel
APPLE @ daily Chart @ with new Yearly High (last Monday)
from 2016-04-24 to 2016-07-26
- between 89.46 and 101.01
w-formation was created
Usually a w-formation is an trend-reversal-formation.
And this w-formation was even created under the extended downside trendline after alltime highs in 2015
132.84 (2015-07-21): start of the downside trendline after alltime highs in 2015
123.60 (2015-11-04): end of the downside trendline after alltime highs in 2015
112.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
After the breakUP of the downside trendline after alltime highs in 2015 the breakUP was etablished by two new lows
(a) even above the w-formation (101.01)
(b) even above the downside trendline after alltime highs in 2015 (102.24)
Right here right now we got a short term trading box
116.19 (2015-09-19): yearly high of 2016
112.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
111.55 (2015-09-23): intraday low of friday
To trade new yearly highs is the mid-term trading zone essentiel
False breakOUT of the downside trendline after alltime highs in 2015
112.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
112.38 (2016-04-14): highs while the false breakOU-formation in april`16
108.07 (2016-04-17): lows while the false breakOU-formation in april`16
1st target is 119.19
112.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
only if the share falls while october (or while the next 4th quarter`16)
under 103.91 (gap before the w-formation was created)
under 102.87 (gap after the w-formation was created)
under 102.47 (low after the the w-formation was created)
the big technical picture will not be constructive. So even above 102.47, even above 102.87 & even above 103.91 the big techical picture is still sugessting higher prices. Higher prices until 119.19 and higher - while this year 2016.
Long-Term BUY Signal
Meanwhile also the 100 SMA is only 70 Cent under the 200 SMA !!!
Usually a 100 SMA upside cross over the 200 SMA is suggesting also higher prices ...
112.71 (2016-09-23): Friday (last trading) Closed
102.06 (2016-09-23): 200 Daily SMA
101.36 (2016-09-23): 100 Daily SMA
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
APPLE @ basic Scenario since ATH (freestyle)134.63 alltime high
132.84 start of the downside trendline
123.79 end of the downside trendline
123.79 trading box between the downside trendline & 1st low after alltime high
119.94 trading box between the downside trendline & 1st low after alltime high
119.19 low price of the alltime high trendreversal formation
112.52 trading box after false breakout of the downside trendline
108.13 trading box after false breakout of the downside trendline
The 1st target ist 119.19
- but i am thinking that the share will oscialating between 112.52 & 119.19 in september`16.
In the 3rd Quarter should be the trading box (119.19 & 123.79) only a question of time. So that the shares should raise up into new alltime highs 2017 - even 134.62
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
4XSetUps
Apple: Low volatility, volume and price- where are the bulls at?Volume
Apple-0.09% Volume continued falling on Tuesday and Wednesday, -5% on each to 20.8m which is 45% below the 1 month average at 38.5m and 50% below the 6 month average at 40m.
This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL-0.09% risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand.
However, volume has contracted significantly every day this week, losing over 20% since the week start, providing a promising environment for apple-0.09% growth, but the stock has struggled to hold onoto any gains, with candles often closing in the lower 25% quartiles of their ranges - indicating the stock isnt necessarily looking to push up yet.
IMO the stock requires more new buyers, it isnt a selling problem its a demand side issue. With the SPX0.33% rising, it shows liquidity is increasing in risk assets so im not sure why apple-0.09% isnt receiving some of the new liquidity and posting upside gains.
Volatility & Apple-0.09% vs VXAP Correlation
We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as implied vols dropped yesterday over 1% to 20.90. Apple-0.09% vol0.00% carries the trend with volume , falling every day this week and now sits at lows from June 2015.
Also the correlation between APPLE-0.09% and its Implied volatility index continued to maintain deep into negative territory - at 93% falling marginally from 94% yesterday. This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple-0.09% growth.
However, the correlation dips slightly, as PRICE that is starting to fail the relationship - as when correlation falls price SHOULD rise hence the high negative relationship. However, price is trading flat/lower thus the correlation is becoming more positive (lower vols and lower price = positive corr)
Evalutaion
Both the falling implied vols and volume , all of which in record setting/ bullish areas provide the perfect environment for growth so as per the last 3 days I am bullish on apple-0.09% and STILL expect a $100 break out to 101/2 this week, though the probability falls significantly, but thrusday is usually the best day for gains, with friday being the worst.
These indicators make me especially bullish as the lower volume and vols are occuring whilst apple-0.09% trades close to 100USD, where usually, the psychological level causes volume to spike as the uncertainty causes sellers and buyers to flood the market - Which as a result also cause volatility to spike.
Given that we havent see this, apple-0.09% should be comfortable with a price hike and is showing strong signs that this is the case.
I feel apple-0.09% needs some upside stimulus at these prices and it will cause a cascaded rally from 100 to 1005+ in a short period of time. We just need to get past this 100 level, which keeps growing its strength every day
APPLE 4% ALGO SPIKE? LOWER VOLS & VOLU; HIGHER NEGATIV VOLS CORRAlgo spike 4% to $101.8?
At 18:19 BST Apple stock surged from 99. to $101.8 and back again all within a minute.
It was Likely to be algo driven OR a data/exchange error - though no news outlets reported either or offered any other speculation.
Though $101.8 is the closest near by resistance strong hold for apple, so it would be a weird coincidence for a "data error" to trade to that price - equally as possible none the less.
IMO, because there was little volatility after the event and also because Apple is now struggling to break the $100 i think it was probably a data/exchange error. If it was an actual demand induced algo spike, the stock would have experienced signifcant price volatility after the event as much of the markets TP/SL levels would have caused a large wave of stochastic automated buying/selling as positions are closed out.
Further, if the spike was real, apple should have been able to trade above $100 easily today;
1. As $101.8 would be a clear bull target level.
2. as the spike would have removed all of the $100TP selling pressure last night - meaning there would be little volume left to continue long squeeze selling today (which annoyingly has been the case).
Volume
Apple Volume fell significantly on Monday by 40% to 23m vs 39m (1month av.) and 43m (6month av.).
In the first half of trading today, volume was also 7% down from yesterdays first half at 11.23m vs 12.0m - signalling today may continue the bullish trend.
This is Bullish IMO as it shows that at these prices holders are not willing to sell their AAPL risk at these prices, as they seek higher prices before they offer higher supply, hence volume stays low and the stock trades with a bid bias - hence the gap up at the open today - illustrating the supply & demand disequilibrium caused by low supply side liquidity and maintained order demand.
Volatility & Apple vs VXAP Correlation
We continue to have a bullish view from a vols perspective as vols dropped yesterday despite an algo driven spike to $101.8 (4%). Apples CBOE VXAP continued to sell off, closing yesterday at 21.64 from 21.73 Friday.
Also the correlation between APPLE and its Implied volatility index continued to fall deeper into negative territory - surpassing levels seen in the last bull run to $112 which peaked at 90% (92% to 94%), This reinforces the bullish volatility signal - as historically, a higher negative relationship sets the best environment for Apple price growth.
BUY APPLE: 2016 @$117 & 2017 @$151 - HISTORICAL MONTHLY ANALYSISApple shows a strong and consistent monthly trend of each bull-bear cycle lasting approximates 2-3 years.
The first bull cycle yielded between 200% and 700% growth, the second much less at 145% growth, and the third we estimate using regressions to be approximately between 67% and 106% (or 67% for the next bull run to $151 and 105% for the 4th bull run to $181).
Looking at apple from this monthly perspective gives me reassurance that the $134-$89 or 33% pull back we just saw was merely a macro cyclical correction (which was actually less severe than the pullback in 2012) rather than a structural bearish re-trend - assuming we go on to make $150+ highs in 2017.
With this assumption/ thought in mind it actually makes sense to buy apple heavily whilst its at such a discount - after-all apple historically has shown steep price extensions that offer few significant (-10%+) pull backs to buy, thus we should realign our attitude to factor in where apple sits in its cycle.
It is often too easy to get caught up in the daily +/1 $2 moves, you sometimes can forget the bigger picture of making the most of a great stock fundamentally, thats trading at 10x p:e.
A key statistical measure that reaffirms the above is Apple's monthly price action and its 120 month Linear regression line which together returns a Pearson's R Coefficient of 0.95, meaning time and price as plotted on the x and y axis for Apple hold an almost perfect linear relationship (Apples data is 95% about the linear regression line).
This means we can extrapolate the price trends for the bull-bear cycles, by simply extending the x axis (time) along the regression line to estimate future prices, to a decent degree of statistical relevance.
If the Peasron's R Coefficient was 0.1 it would mean monthly prices are only 10% about the regression, thus extrapolation of price through time would LIKELY yield very little correlation to the actual future price, based on past prices.
Look out for my fundamental analysis of apple in the coming weeks
APPLE LONG: $151-$182 - CYCLICAL ANALYSIS & REGRESSION FORECASTAnalysing Apple's (AAPL) historical cyclical price movements and using the +/- 2SD of the linear regression to forecast a naive regression price for the next extension phase.
* Extension leg Regression Forecast*
1. For leg A (Extension Leg 1) we use a start point of $12.5 or $33 (phase doesnt have a clear start), or we could assume a mean value of (12.5+33)/2= $22.75.
- Leg A is then, $12.5, $23.5 or $33 divided by $100, which means Leg A is a price increase of = 700%, 310% or 200%
2. For Leg C (Extension Leg 2) the price increased from $55 to $134.5 which is a 145% increase.
3. For Foretasted Leg E (Extension Leg 3), we start at $89 and we derive the price "%" increase by:
- Using the regression of the price increase % from Leg A to Leg C e.g. 145%/700%= 21%; 145/310 = 46%; 145/200= 73%, so this means for each of the calculations we can then assume each is the regression growth differential from Leg C's 145% increase to foretasted Leg E's "%" increase
4. e.g. Foretasted Leg E / Extension Leg 3:
21% of 145% = 31% increase; $89 * 31% = $117
or 46% of 145% = 67% increase ; $89* 67% * $89= $151
or 73% of 145% = 106% increase; $89 * 106% = $182
- Thus Apples Leg E/ Extension Leg 3's Naive Regression Forecast = between $151 and $182
* As shown on graph.
Furthermore, another interesting statistical measure for apples 10year/ 120 Month +/-2SD channel was that the Pearsons R was 0.95. This means that the linear correlation between Apples Price over the measured time period was 95%. 95% of all values observed lie averagely on its linear regression line (middle line of the Stan Dev channel) - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient
- Having such a high Peasons R means the regression line holds true for 95% of past data and therefore is MAY also include 95% of future data thus extrapolating the linear line (or using basic regressions as i have done) is of some statistical significance.
A Pearsons R coefficient of 0.3 means there is little positive correlation between Price and Time, thus extrapolating prices through time using basic regressions/ forecasts is much less statistically prudent, since only 30% of past data correlated about the linear regression line.
