Nobody Appreciated it!! XAU/USD has finally hit the precise target I predicted with confidence just yesterday, and while I shared my analysis and insight in advance, it seems like no one took the time to acknowledge or appreciate the effort that went into this forecast. It's disappointing to feel overlooked, but in the end, the results are undeniable, and the accuracy of my prediction speaks volumes. Success like this reminds me that consistency and skill are more valuable than recognition, and I’ll continue to trust my work, whether or not it’s celebrated by others.
Appreciation
THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES ON FOREX MARKETHello again! Interest rates can have a significant impact on the forex market , as they can affect the demand for and supply of different currencies. In general, higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment and increase the demand for a currency, as investors can earn a higher return on their investments. This can lead to an appreciation of the currency in the foreign exchange market.
On the other hand, lower interest rates may discourage foreign investment and reduce the demand for a currency, leading to a depreciation of the currency in the forex market.
Interest rates can also affect the attractiveness of a country's assets, such as stocks and bonds, which can in turn affect the demand for its currency. For example, if a country has high interest rates, its assets may be more attractive to foreign investors, leading to an increase in demand for the country's currency.
In addition to the interest rate level, the direction and pace of change in interest rates can also affect the forex market. If a central bank is expected to increase interest rates in the near future, it may lead to an appreciation of the currency, as investors anticipate higher returns on their investments. On the other hand, if a central bank is expected to lower interest rates, it may lead to a depreciation of the currency.
Overall, the relationship between interest rates and the forex market is complex and can be influenced by a variety of factors, including economic conditions, inflation expectations, and global market conditions.
DEUTSCHE BANK - technical analysisAfter the tough time, Deutsche Bank had last year, facing a U.S. lawsuit (...), the stock is finally recovering and we are likely to see a strong appreciation in value during 2017. As the price development suggest, Deutsche Banks's stock price usually follows trendlines for a fairly long time. Moreover, price movements most of the time follow a linear function and therefore do not change their direction very quickly, relative to the percentage of price change. Considering these two specific patterns of behavior, the current situation indicates that the price is going to move along with the ascending trendline below, towards the crossing point with the higher descending trendline. From there on, due to the restructuring over the last year and the in-depth change in strategy, cutting costs, reducing risk and focusing more on major clients, at Deutsche Bank, the odds for a breakout above the descending trendline and a continuing upwards movement are pretty good.
Will the Australian central bank cut rates?Bolstered by a rally in commodities, improved manufacturing data and employment levels in Australia, the economy is doing very well. In fact, it has been the best performing economy among developed nations outside Europe.
However, the appreciating AUD is undermining this strong economic performance, dragging the country down and hampering growth. It is in the Australian central bank's best interest to cut interest rates to allow the AUD to depreciate and the economy to grow with the strength it should be.
As well as this, the inflation levels in Australia are still below the 2-3% target at 1.7%, giving room for a rate cut.
I think that further appreciation of the AUD will cause central bankers to realise its unsustainability - for want of a better word - in undermining economic growth, and will go forward with a rate cut. Thus, if the AUD reaches the region indicated by a box on my diagram, I will consider shorting AUD, with a target price somewhere in the low 70 cents region.
MACRO VIEW: SPX HOLDS MACRO UPTRENDSDespite all the fuss and fears about US stock market recently, on macro basis SPX looks fairly good.
The index did break its 5-year uptrend (in relation to 260 week mean - now at 2015) during August selloff and for now stays below its border, However the price did not even test is 10-year uptrend (in relation to 520 week mean).
What it tells us so far that the longer term trends are intact and strong, and nothing changed dramatically since the start of 2013.
Upcoming earnings season is feared a lot by general media, and it can potentially trigger the 10-year uptrend test (drop to 1835), however as of now market shows no such expectations!