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10/23 5th time BTC rejected from 70k. Bullish? Overview: The AMEX:SPY saw a healthy pullback of 0.9%, with a long wick touching levels last observed on September 26th. The index trended downward from the start of the trading session but rebounded sharply in the last two hours, doubling the volume seen earlier in the day. This surge formed a hammer candle—a bullish indicator, particularly when accompanied by increased volume. Existing home sales in the U.S. dropped 1% from the previous month, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.84 million in September 2024, marking the lowest level since October 2010. Today, new home sales and initial jobless claims are expected, with forecasts set at 245k, slightly above the previous reading of 241k. If the numbers come in lower than expected, it would suggest the economy is not cooling sufficiently, potentially extending inflation. This decline could be attributed to a rise in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which jumped 14 basis points to 6.82%, the highest since July 26 and a 71-basis-point increase since the Fed’s last major rate cut. The likelihood of a rate cut in November has now dropped to 7%, influenced heavily by the Fed's upcoming reports. Given the weakening housing data, a rate cut may still be necessary to support the economy. The recent market correction has exposed different strategies among ETF managers. BlackRock continues to buy aggressively, maintaining its purchase levels even after a 5% correction, keeping its stance bullish. Fidelity has remained neutral, staying on the sidelines since the peak of the current bull wave. ARK Invest, however, bought heavily at the top but is now selling during the correction, realizing losses. In summary: BlackRock is bullish, Fidelity is neutral, and ARK is bearish. BTC TA: W: BTC is slowly forming this week's red candle, but bullish hopes persist. D: A significant correction unfolded, as the triple divergence likely completed. The day's wick dipped below $65.8k, then bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level, calculated from the bullish pump that began on Monday, October 14th. Despite the pullback, BTC showed higher volume and managed to recover. The final daily candle formed a bullish hammer, although the volume wasn't notably higher than the last two bearish days. As previously mentioned, as long as $62.7k holds, the bullish outlook remains intact. Drawing trendlines for BTC this year shows the current upper boundary is slightly sloped downward—forming the top of what appears to be a bullish flag. It follows a large rally, with a slight pullback and consolidation, setting up for another potential breakout. Last Friday, on the 18th, the trendline was broken, suggesting a bullish confirmation if retested. However, yesterday’s price action pushed BTC below this trendline. Of course, the trendline could be adjusted to fit the bullish narrative, but the key level to watch is $66.5k. 4h: A sharp drop occurred yesterday, but most of it was recovered in the latter half of the day. This dip seems correlated with the S&P 500’s drop. BTC lost the local point of control at $66.8k but regained it. If bearish momentum continues this week without positive news, and if BTC falls below $65.8k, the next critical support is the yearly level of $62.7k. However, this would be the fourth or even fifth time this year that BTC has been rejected from $70k. If that happens again, will there be enough bullish momentum left to hold $62.7k? The candle that bounced off the 0.618 Fibonacci level formed a green hammer with above-average volume—a bullish sign. 1h: The hourly chart shows a V-shaped recovery, an uncommon pattern in market behavior. Beyond that, no additional insights. Alts Relative to BTC: Interestingly, SOL has been rising while the rest of the market declines. Some attribute this to renewed interest in memecoins. However, popular Solana-based memecoins like WIF, BONK, and MEW are down, with only Popcat showing gains. Bull Case: BTC faces rejection at $70k, followed by a deep pullback, and the Fed decides not to cut rates in November. Bear Case: The Fed cuts rates, and BTC rallies. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 52, continuing its downward trend this week. Opportunities : Check BINANCE:APTUSDT for a possible short opportunity. If SUI and TAO already corrected after their big pump, APT still wobbles at the top and recently posted bearish shooting star daily candle with high volume.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Aptos | APT vs SUIThe price of Aptos is $10.7 today with a 24hour trading volume of 128 million dollar. This represents a 7% price increase in the last 24 hours and a 6% price increase in the past 7 days With a circulating supply of 190 Million APT, and YES we back to 2 billion dollar Marketcap. now lets compare SUI and APTOS Both Aptos and Sui blockchains are designed to address the scalability and efficiency issues faced by the current generation of blockchain networks. They both implement one of the most advanced programming languages – Move, utilize parallel execution for high throughput, and offer low latency. These similarities make them attractive options for businesses looking to build blockchain-based applications. The language used for parallel execution in both Aptos and Sui is Move, which is based on Rust and was initially designed at Meta. The language offers powerful tools and features to build smart contracts and decentralized applications. However, Sui has its own version of the language. Aptos follows the standard design outlined in Diem’s whitepaper, while Sui has a slightly different object model. Sui’s storage system is object-centric, which means that most things on the blockchain, including addresses and transactions, are represented as objects.Sui’s version of Move clearly indicates when an object is owned, shared, mutable, or immutable, whereas Aptos does not. Additionally, Sui’s ownership API is cleaner than Aptos’s, as it provides a clearer representation of the blockchain design Sui and Aptos differ significantly in their architecture, particularly in how they utilize distributed ledger technology. Sui’s ledger is stored as a directed a cyclic graph rather than a blockchain like Aptos. While both designs are efficient and share similarities with traditional blockchains, their differences are essential to their consensus mechanism and scalability.aptos has a modular architecture that enables easy upgrades and customizations, while Sui focuses on a multi-layered architecture to separate the consensus, storage, and computation layers. This allows for improved scalability and flexibility in the network.The ecosystems are very different and extensive in both projects. Every day there is something new to discover at both chains. It’s hard to pick out an outsider and a favorite. Aptos blockchain got its popularity before Sui, but at the moment, judging by the number of followers on Discord, Sui is overtaking Aptos. After a surge in the popularity of Aptos several months ago, many various projects were created and launched exactly using that blockchain. During the year 2022, over 100 projects were developed using Aptos network.the most popular projects built over Aptos include Pontem (a universal wallet) and Pyth (a modern oracle). Aptos boasts a growing ecosystem of tools, libraries, and developer resources, while Sui’s ecosystem is relatively nascent but has the potential to grow rapidly as more developers join the network.as for Sui, the mainnet of the network will only be launched in Q2 2023 and the testnet was launched in the last days of March 2023. Thus, the majority of the project is now TBA. One of the most remarkable Sui projects so far is Sui wallet. Still, the Sui blockchain has great potential to overtake Aptos due to its scalability level. Aptos and Sui are two blockchain ecosystems with different approaches to their tokenomics. Aptos has released an overview of their tokenomics for their native token APT, but additional information is expected to be published soon. APT is currently used for PoS participation and liquidity incentives, with an initial supply of 1 billion tokens. The majority of the initial supply is currently staked for PoS participation, with the remaining tokens allocated to different categories. On the other hand, Mysten Labs has published an in-depth whitepaper on the native token of Sui, SUI. SUI will be staked within an epoch to participate in the proof-of-stake mechanism and on-chain voting. Additionally, SUI will be used as the asset denomination to pay for gas fees and other operations on the Sui platform, with a total supply of 10 billion tokens. The exact allocation percentages for the distribution of tokens have not been released, but the presence of the storage fund can create monetary dynamics and reduce the amount of SUI in circulation. In conclusion, both Aptos and Sui have their unique selling points and hold great potential for businesses looking to adopt blockchain technology. However, Sui and Aptos are rapidly developing ecosystems, they’re still pretty ‘young’ compared to other big players in the industry. Thus, they are definitely expected to settle all security audit issues soon.
Long
by moonypto
7
APT Defies Market Trends A Bullish Breakout or a Prelude to $15?Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) has been catching the attention of traders and analysts alike, with its ecosystem experiencing significant growth, particularly its Total Value Locked (TVL) hitting an all-time high of $916.26M. As Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) continues to surge, many are asking: is AMEX:APT poised for a major rally, and can it reach the $12 mark— or even $15? Ecosystem on the Rise The recent spike in TVL highlights Aptos' growing adoption within the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. Aptos ranks 14th in TVL among blockchain ecosystems, with a current value of $604.64 million spread across 48 protocols. Key contributors to this include Aries Markets, Amnis Finance, Thala, and TruStake, all of which have experienced significant TVL growth in the past month. The rise in TVL signals that developers and users are increasingly choosing Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) for its efficiency and low fees, a key feature of the Aptos Layer-1 blockchain. Aptos' unique use of the Move programming language, originally developed for Facebook’s Diem project, enables faster, more secure transactions. The network's ability to handle 13,000+ transactions per second (TPS) with Block-STM, a system for parallel transaction processing, has attracted partnerships with major players like Microsoft, AWS, and Mastercard. These alliances showcase Aptos' real-world potential for use in sectors like gaming, AI, and NFTs. Aptos NFT Surge: A Growing Asset Class Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) is also making waves in the NFT space. Over the last 30 days, Aptos saw 3.9K new collections, with total NFT sales of $24.5M. With 652.5K active wallets, Aptos is rapidly growing its footprint in the NFT marketplace. This surge further solidifies its reputation as a blockchain with wide-ranging applications beyond DeFi, adding momentum to its ongoing rally. Technical Outlook From a technical standpoint, Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) is showing strong bullish momentum. Since breaking out of the $9.36 level on October 13, AMEX:APT has continued its upward trend, currently trading at around $10.90. The next significant resistance level sits at $12, and a break above this could trigger a rally toward $15, potentially even testing its all-time high of $19.42—a 75% upside from the current price. The key technical indicators further support the bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68, signaling strong buying pressure without being overbought, leaving room for further gains. Moreover, the 50-day Moving Average is nearing a Golden Cross formation, where it crosses above the 200-day Moving Average. This signal typically forecasts the beginning of a strong bullish trend. While the Golden Cross hasn’t fully materialized yet, a push above the $12 pivot could seal the deal, setting Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) up for a major rally. Risk Factors & Key Support Levels Despite the strong upward trend, traders should keep an eye on the $10 support level. A breakdown below this price could signal a short-term retreat, with the next significant support lying at $9.75. In contrast, sustained momentum could propel AMEX:APT to $12.50 and beyond, opening the door to its $15 target. Conclusion Aptos'—rising TVL, growing NFT sales, and strong partnerships—combined with bullish technical indicators, suggest that a larger rally could be on the horizon. If Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) breaks through its immediate resistance levels, the path to $15 seems not only possible but highly probable. However, as with any cryptocurrency, caution is advised, and traders should watch key support levels closely to gauge whether Aptos ( AMEX:APT ) can maintain its upward trajectory. With a 40% surge this month alone and a rapidly expanding ecosystem, AMEX:APT is undoubtedly one to watch as it continues to defy broader market trends. Will Aptos hit $15 before the quarter ends? Time will tell, but all signs point toward a bullish future for this rising star in the Layer-1 blockchain space.
COINBASE:APTUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
10/14 Bull run if THIS level confirmed as supportOverview: The U.S. observed Columbus Day on Monday, with most businesses closed, but trading activity was still alive and well. The PYTH:SPY closed its fifth consecutive green day, reaching a new all-time high, while the PYTH:QQQ approaches its own record. Due to the holiday, the Federal Reserve didn't release any data, but tomorrow we'll see the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and by Thursday, we’ll have jobless claims numbers, retail sales, home builder confidence, and business inventory reports. Interestingly, the CME Watch Tool is now showing a 16.4% chance of no rate cut in November, up from just 10% last Friday. This shift may be in response to an overheated equities market. Meanwhile, Monday saw a wave of buying activity in crypto ETFs, with big names like BlackRock, Grayscale, and even Fidelity getting involved. ETH also caught BlackRock’s attention. For a more reliable corporate earnings calendar, try this updated tool: finance.yahoo.com BTC TA: W: Last week, BINANCE:BTCUSDT opened at $62,810 and closed at $62,845, forming a large indecisive doji candle but managing to stay above the Bollinger Band middle line (BB MA). Throughout the week, the price showed lower highs and lower lows until Asian bulls stepped in on Monday morning. While U.S. traders were off for the holiday, Asian traders pushed BTC past its previous high, stopping just short of the crucial $66,550 mark. Keep an eye on $62.7k—it’s a key level on the weekly, 3-month, yearly, and current bull run (since October 2023) point of control. Anything above this level suggests a potential breakout toward $70k, while falling below it could indicate a bearish trend. To confirm, we need to see $62.7k act as solid support. We’ve already had two fake breakouts, so the chances of another are slim, but not impossible. D: Over the last four days, BTC quickly moved from the bottom to the top of its Bollinger Bands. Coinbase reported 13.5k transactions on Monday—a strong volume, but not as high as in January or October 2023, when this bull run began. This suggests that larger institutional players are still waiting on the sidelines, watching closely. Despite the Fed’s rate cut and China’s $25 billion stimulus, global liquidity has been declining for the last 29 days. 4h: The RSI has hit 75, indicating an overbought condition. If you pull a Fibonacci retracement, the 0.618 level aligns with $64 k, which also coincides with previous weekly and daily resistance levels. This also matches the October 7th high, forming a critical level of interest. 1h: On Monday at 11 am Shanghai time, a large green candle kicked off a rally. Ten hours later, New York bulls joined the action, extending the pump. The rally lasted 19 hours, pushing BTC up by 6.23%. Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins are moving in tandem with BTC, but this rally isn’t as much about alts as it is about Bitcoin. While BTC gained 5%, ETH, SOL, and NEAR only posted gains of 6.x%, and none have reached their previous highs. SUI, APT, and TAO have even corrected slightly after their substantial gains of 100% or more over the last 30-40 days, leaving them room to consolidate. Bull Case: We’re on the verge of exiting the bull flag pattern. Once the global liquidity index starts rising again, markets will likely be flooded with cheap money, fueling risk-on assets like crypto. A bounce off the $62.7k level will confirm it as support, pushing the bullish narrative. Bear Case: If we see a third fake breakout, it could trap all the bulls. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 56, still in Neutral territory but just 4 points away from Greed. Prediction: The outlook remains bullish, provided we don’t see another fake breakout, and $62.7k can be established as a solid support level.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
APTUSDT Next target?? APTUSDT is currently testing a key resistance level. A breakout here could signal a significant upward movement, potentially doubling investment in the near future. Always keep Stop loss!! APTUSDT (1D Chart) Technical analysis APTUSDT (1D Chart) Currently trading at $7.3 Buy level: Above $7.5 Stop loss: Below $6 TP1: $9 TP2: $11 TP3: $13 TP4: $15 Max Leverage 3x Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts
Long
by GreenCryptoTrades
10/9 Good news and bad news...Overview: Which would you prefer to hear first? Let’s start with the good news: the AMEX:SPY has updated its all-time high. If you have a 401k or any other pension fund, you’re likely seeing gains. Also, it's hard to argue that a recession is looming when the stock market is booming. Now for the bad news: crypto is down. Normally, this wouldn’t be alarming, as all markets fluctuate. But it's concerning when we see a divergence between the stock market and crypto. Even riskier tech stocks, like those in the NASDAQ:QQQ index, climbed 0.79%. If traders are eager to buy equities, why not crypto, or at least BINANCE:BTCUSD ? Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he delivers the CPI and Core CPI data along with initial jobless claims. Given that recent job reports nearly doubled expectations, we predict fewer jobless claims. The question is: will positive macroeconomic data help? On one hand, it means people have money to spend, which could benefit crypto. On the other hand, it could reduce the chances of aggressive rate cuts, keeping liquidity constrained, and preventing speculative assets from soaring. BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin but hasn’t touched its ETH ETF. When did ETH become so hated? CME fedwatch tool shows an increase in the probability of no rate cut in November, up to 17.2%, while the chances of a one-base-point cut sit at 82.2%. BTC TA: W: BTC needs to close above $61.4k to keep bulls in the game. Unfortunately, after today's drop, BTC fell below this crucial level, breaking the bullish structure it had been building since September 7th. Another important level is $62.7k, the point of control for the entire 2024 bull run, which was rejected yesterday. This week is shaping up to print another red candle, following the previous week. D: While the weekly levels are invalidated, the daily levels still offer hope. BTC bounced from the $60.6k support level, and we haven’t seen four consecutive red days since August. If tomorrow's CPI data hints at a bullish sentiment, we might see a small rally back to $62.1k. 4h: Price is currently closer to the lowest Bollinger Band, indicating it needs to catch up with its moving average. 1h: BTC has reached the Bollinger Bands' moving average, but for a stronger recovery, it needs to break beyond this level on the 4h chart to confirm a bounce. Alts Relative to BTC: TAO, SUI, and APT have reached higher highs, but with lower volumes, suggesting that the bullish trend is losing steam. These gains were likely driven by retail investors, FOMOing into the rally. Meanwhile, FTM is showing bearish MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart and was rejected at its weekly resistance of $0.69. Bull Case: At $60k, BTC is relatively cheap, considering how much adoption and recognition crypto has gained in 2024. Since we didn’t experience a massive sell-off in September and have held up into October, this might be your last chance to buy BTC at a sub-$100k price. Additionally, we’re in the Fear territory on the Fear and Greed Index, which historically offers an 83% chance of profitability if bought during this phase. Bear Case: From a technical perspective, things look bearish. Many key support levels have been invalidated, and the likelihood of the Fed not cutting rates in November continues to rise. Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear). Prediction: BTC may rebound to $62.1k before resuming its decline. Expect TAO, SUI, and APT to follow BTC's movements, with a potential drop back to pre-BTC ETF levels, which could see declines of 55-60%. Opportunities: Short TAO, SUI, APT, FTM.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by EvgenCapital
APT macro analysis ⏰ <•> DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH 🔎 $11.6 is key 🗝️ resistance 📌 )-( we should have clean break and week close above 📌 + It helps price to complete ✅ 🎯 $18 🎯 $27 🎯 $37 I Already accumulated 60% bag 💰 average price of $5.8 Still I don't think 🤔 u ar later )-( just go in plan )-( use 60% liquid 💰 if risk use 70% Back-up plan set-up 📐 losing yellow 🟡 support 📌 green 💚 flash dump 🩸 $2-3 👀 Best price to average ur liquid 💰 ( #imo max not possible ) Long run expecting target's 🎯 $45 & $85 may be even more target's 🎯 But this just 4-6 month's plan after hitting target's 🎯 i provided new plan 📌 Caution 🚨 if backup plan got executed when u reach 1x ( +100% ) just get back ur liquid 💰 Stay safe 💞 stay blessed
Long
by raj5_7_5
APT - The signal is crystal clear.#APT/USDT #Analysis Description --------------------------------------------------------------- + APT has clearly bounced from the support zone, and we are now seeing a defined trend. + The price is moving towards the next resistance around $18. + This presents a clear opportunity to capitalize on the trend and maximize profits. --------------------------------------------------------------- VectorAlgo Trade Details ------------------------------ Entry Price: 9.13 Stop Loss: 6.43 ------------------------------ Target 1: 10.84 Target 2: 12.96 Target 3: 15.23 Target 4: 18.57 Target 5: 26.78 ------------------------------ Timeframe:1W Capital Risk: 1-2% of trading amount Leverage: 5-10x --------------------------------------------------------------- Enhance, Trade, Grow --------------------------------------------------------------- Feel free to share your thoughts and insights. Don't forget to like and follow us for more trading ideas and discussions. Best Regards, VectorAlgo
Long
by VectorAlgo
APT Long Spot Position (Inverse Head and Shoulders Breakout)Market Context: APT is breaking out from an inverse head and shoulders pattern, holding the 200 EMA as support while flipping previous resistance. The key resistance level to clear is $9.8, which could trigger rapid price expansion. Trade Setup: Entry: Dollar-cost average (DCA) between $8 and $6.8. Take Profit: First target: $9.8 Second target: $12 Third target: $14 Stop Loss: Daily close under $6. This setup looks solid for a breakout continuation if resistance is cleared. #APT #Crypto
Long
by Richtv_official
9/24 Markets on Edge: Is the Bull Run Here to Stay?Overview: It might seem like the markets have been rallying for the last four trading days, following the recent interest rate cut. The AMEX:SPY formed a bullish spinning top candlestick pattern on Friday and Monday, followed by another green candle on Tuesday. We remain in a bullish trend with no clear signs of reversal. However, it's worth noting that we still haven’t reached a new all-time high and haven't posted a solid green candle engulfing previous ones. The AMEX:SPY hasn’t even surpassed the highest trading price recorded last Thursday. Essentially, we're hovering at the market's peak, deciding whether to kick off a new bull cycle or face a potential downturn. NASDAQ:QQQ also closed positively, but the candlestick pattern is similar to SPY. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve reported the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks housing price increases in 20 major U.S. cities. While housing is still appreciating, it’s doing so at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. In July, it rose by 5.9% year-over-year, compared to an expected 6% and the previous reading of 6.5%. The primary driver of home prices is borrowing costs, particularly reflected in mortgage rates. Typically, a 1% increase or decrease in mortgage rates correlates with a 10% change in property values. As interest rates decrease, so do mortgage rates, influencing home prices. Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped from 7.22% in May to 6% in mid-September, translating to a 12.2% increase in housing prices. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index could see a significant rise, especially if the Fed cuts rates twice more by year-end. The Consumer Confidence Index, distinct from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, also dropped to 98.7 in September, nearing the bottom of its narrow range over the past two years. This is the steepest decline since August 2021, with all five components of the index deteriorating. Consumers’ views on current business conditions and the labor market have turned negative. Additionally, expectations for future labor market conditions, business conditions, and income have all worsened. While this drop is significant, it’s not as severe as during the Dotcom Bubble or the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Fidelity and Bitwise are slowly dipping their toes into the BTC ETF market, while Grayscale and BlackRock remain on the sidelines. The ETH ETF remains untouched. It’s possible that the recent surge in buying is driven by retail investors. We might need to reconsider the importance of ETF metrics, as they’ve become just another market participant without any apparent insider knowledge. For instance, BlackRock made its largest BTC ETF purchase between February 27th and March 14th when BTC's price ranged from $51K to $73K. On March 12th, they purchased $849 million worth of BTC at a closing price of $71.4K, leaving them in a loss since then. Weekly : This week’s BINANCE:BTCUSD candle is above the Bollinger Band moving average, but it’s still intersecting the $64 k weekly level. If this price holds, it could signal a major bullish trend. For now, it’s still leaning bearish. Daily : Tuesday’s price action pushed us above the weekly $64 k level. The daily candle appears stronger compared to the previous four spinning tops. RSI is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t crossed the 70 mark, and there are no MACD divergences. 4-Hour : The bearish MACD divergence persists, now visible in RSI as well. Three consecutive candles are holding above $64K. Lower timeframes will reveal how many attempts were made to break this level and if previous resistance has turned into support. The price is at the top of the Bollinger Bands. 1-Hour ): On Tuesday, September 24th, at 10 AM, there was a decisive candle indicating an unsuccessful attempt by American bears to break the $62.9K level. The VR VP point of control is precisely at this level, with significant bullish buy orders absorbing the selling pressure. Volume nearly doubled to 1.1 million on Coinbase, compared to an average of 278k. Subsequent candles showed higher volume and a higher low. Once the selling pressure was absorbed, the price began to rise and broke the resistance level. Since the breakout, the price has tested the old resistance level three times but successfully rebounded, closing higher above the Bollinger Band moving average. This breakout was confirmed by a CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) bullish divergence, available on TradingView. It shows the difference between buying and selling pressure in the market, especially on the 1-hour timeframe. During the 10, 11, and 12 AM candles, a higher low was formed compared to the previous price low, but the CVD indicated a lower low. This suggests that even with immense selling pressure, buy orders were absorbing the sell orders, pushing the price higher. Alts Relative to BTC: While major market indices and BTC might appear flat and indecisive, altcoins are experiencing explosive growth. Since the rate cut, the following alts have surged: TAO: +70% SUI: +50% APT: +37% NEAR: +30% RNDR: +30% Alts had ample room for growth as many collapsed faster than BTC. In early September, SUI and NEAR reached their "BTC ETF approval" price levels from January 10th, while APT hit its 2023 bottom price. It still has another 9% to go before reaching its BTC ETF price. Bull Case: BTC holds $64 k, all selling pressure is absorbed, and liquidity floods the market, especially after China joined the rate-cutting spree, reducing their rate from 2.3% to 2.0%. Bear Case: It could all be one big bull trap, with deeper economic issues globally leaving people with less disposable income to gamble on speculative assets. Fear and Greed Index: 52.83. Increasing but still in the neutral zone. There's a notable divergence: check the Fear and Greed Index chart on CoinMarketCap. The last two lows were on August 5th and September 6th, yet BTC posted a higher second low, indicating irrational fear in the market. Keep an eye on this divergence for future reference.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/23 Crypto Faces Gloomy October.Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed higher last week, but Thursday’s candlestick pattern resembles a bearish abandoned baby. What’s more concerning is the weekly chart showing a bearish MACD divergence—while the price keeps hitting all-time highs, both the MACD and signal lines are trending lower. Has this divergence played out already, as seen in the first week of August, or is it still ahead of us? You may have noticed that we only have two more rate cuts left for the year. Why not three, with three months remaining? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets only eight times a year. There’s no meeting in October to give time for economic analysis and to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Conveniently (for bears), September and October are typically weak months for markets. Remember, FTX collapsed in November 2022, bottoming out the crypto market in November-December. The next FOMC rate cut is expected on November 7th, leaving BINANCE:BTCUSD bulls on their own for the next 44 days. However, this cut is not guaranteed. If inflation remains high or increases, the cut could be postponed. Rate cuts are a quantitative easing tool used to support a slowing economy—not one that’s running at full speed. This Friday, the FED will release the PCE index, which could influence their decision. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 55.2% chance of a one-basis-point cut and a 44.8% chance of a two-basis-point cut. In recent letters, we suggested a price increase in late September. Now might be the time to take some profits and wait to see if we can break resistance and establish a new bull trend, or if this is the peak before a downturn. Weekly: BTC closed the week with a strong green candle, slightly above the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) but still below the highs of late August. The trend remains bearish. Daily: We’re overdue for a correction back to the BB MA, with targets at $61.4k and $60k. The price is hovering around the major resistance level of GETTEX:64K , which is also a key monthly level. The last three days have formed three consecutive dojis, indicating market indecision after 15 days of bullish momentum. Breaking this resistance without first testing the $61.4k support is unlikely. 4-Hour: Weekend price action shows BTC reaching its peak between Thursday and Friday night, pulling back by 2.6% before U.S. bulls prevented further losses. Despite pushing higher on Sunday, Asian bears applied pressure again. Bearish divergence between the price peaks and the MACD-signal line suggests a potential downturn. 1-Hour: At 10:00 a.m. NYC time, BTC posted a big green candle, supported by strong U.S. buying. However, since Monday midnight, the price has been dropping, while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) line remains green and positive. This indicates that despite strong buying pressure, hidden sell orders are absorbing the demand, suggesting: Absorption by Sellers: Large sell orders are preventing the price from moving up. Distribution Phase: Larger market participants may be offloading positions while smaller traders buy, creating an illusion of demand. Potential Reversal: This could signal a potential reversal if the selling pressure eases. Altcoins Relative to BTC: ETH has outperformed BTC, along with NEAR, TAO, APT, AR, RNDR, and AAVE. SUI, BNB, and FTM showed weaker pumps, while SOL appeared the weakest. Bull Case: If the Fed’s two-basis-point cut doesn’t lead to higher inflation and jobless claims continue to rise, it could boost speculative assets. Other central banks around the world may follow suit, increasing global M2 money supply. Bear Case: Until the next Fed rate cut, there’s little to support BTC’s current price against bearish pressure. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 50.64—neutral sentiment. Overall, the market remains in a delicate balance, while weekly trend is still bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital