Get started

Ar

AR Long Spot Position (Support Entry)Market Context: AR has retraced to a significant area of support between $18.00 and $20.00, creating a favorable opportunity for a long trade. This setup looks promising if the support holds. Trade Setup: Entry: In the current $18.00 - $20.00 area of support. Take Profit: First target: $24.00 - $26.50 Second target: $32.00 - $35.00 Stop Loss: Around $16.00. This trade aims to capitalize on the bounce from support, providing a structured risk-reward profile. #AR #SupportTrade
Long
by Richtv_official
Natural Gas Goes Kaboom!Profits have been secured I the Natural gas trade. That being said I still think Nat gas equities can push higher. On the UNG chart we just saw the 20 day MA & 50 Day MA bullishly crossover each other. Last time this happened Nat gas had a 4-5 day parabolic move. The bulls must be careful to not push this commodity up too quickly because it makes the pattern less likely to have a continued breakout. We are still putting in Lower weekly highs, so the next test of the most recent pivot high is going to be crucial. If the bulls can trigger the weekly inverse head and shoulder pattern there's going to be a great long continuation opportunity. Until we break the pivot high & create a higher high traders must use caution now that we've had a large move occur. AR, EQT, CPK, LNG are all set to push higher if Nat gas holds these gains.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
9/23 Crypto Faces Gloomy October.Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed higher last week, but Thursday’s candlestick pattern resembles a bearish abandoned baby. What’s more concerning is the weekly chart showing a bearish MACD divergence—while the price keeps hitting all-time highs, both the MACD and signal lines are trending lower. Has this divergence played out already, as seen in the first week of August, or is it still ahead of us? You may have noticed that we only have two more rate cuts left for the year. Why not three, with three months remaining? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets only eight times a year. There’s no meeting in October to give time for economic analysis and to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Conveniently (for bears), September and October are typically weak months for markets. Remember, FTX collapsed in November 2022, bottoming out the crypto market in November-December. The next FOMC rate cut is expected on November 7th, leaving BINANCE:BTCUSD bulls on their own for the next 44 days. However, this cut is not guaranteed. If inflation remains high or increases, the cut could be postponed. Rate cuts are a quantitative easing tool used to support a slowing economy—not one that’s running at full speed. This Friday, the FED will release the PCE index, which could influence their decision. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 55.2% chance of a one-basis-point cut and a 44.8% chance of a two-basis-point cut. In recent letters, we suggested a price increase in late September. Now might be the time to take some profits and wait to see if we can break resistance and establish a new bull trend, or if this is the peak before a downturn. Weekly: BTC closed the week with a strong green candle, slightly above the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) but still below the highs of late August. The trend remains bearish. Daily: We’re overdue for a correction back to the BB MA, with targets at $61.4k and $60k. The price is hovering around the major resistance level of GETTEX:64K , which is also a key monthly level. The last three days have formed three consecutive dojis, indicating market indecision after 15 days of bullish momentum. Breaking this resistance without first testing the $61.4k support is unlikely. 4-Hour: Weekend price action shows BTC reaching its peak between Thursday and Friday night, pulling back by 2.6% before U.S. bulls prevented further losses. Despite pushing higher on Sunday, Asian bears applied pressure again. Bearish divergence between the price peaks and the MACD-signal line suggests a potential downturn. 1-Hour: At 10:00 a.m. NYC time, BTC posted a big green candle, supported by strong U.S. buying. However, since Monday midnight, the price has been dropping, while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) line remains green and positive. This indicates that despite strong buying pressure, hidden sell orders are absorbing the demand, suggesting: Absorption by Sellers: Large sell orders are preventing the price from moving up. Distribution Phase: Larger market participants may be offloading positions while smaller traders buy, creating an illusion of demand. Potential Reversal: This could signal a potential reversal if the selling pressure eases. Altcoins Relative to BTC: ETH has outperformed BTC, along with NEAR, TAO, APT, AR, RNDR, and AAVE. SUI, BNB, and FTM showed weaker pumps, while SOL appeared the weakest. Bull Case: If the Fed’s two-basis-point cut doesn’t lead to higher inflation and jobless claims continue to rise, it could boost speculative assets. Other central banks around the world may follow suit, increasing global M2 money supply. Bear Case: Until the next Fed rate cut, there’s little to support BTC’s current price against bearish pressure. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 50.64—neutral sentiment. Overall, the market remains in a delicate balance, while weekly trend is still bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Natural Gas: Weak Day / Strong WeekNatural gas had a bit of profit taking today and you can't blame the bulls for trimming especially since we did the same. The Daily chart now needs a couple days of consolidation before another sustainable push. The weekly chart recaptured the 50 Weekly MA...very good near term sign. This can now be used as a support level to trade against for very tight stoploss swing traders. As long as we remain above the breakout neckline we should be likely heading to retest 2.75 & $2.90 Levels below can cause nat gas to fail and fall substantially. Alway remembers the Weekly trend still has Lower highs in place.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
9/10. Crypto Recovery or Short Squeeze? Key Data as CPI Looms.Overview: Over the last two trading days, the VANTAGE:SP500 and NASDAQ:QQQ posted green candles, pulling us back from the bearish abyss we ended up in last week. However, neither has yet surpassed Friday’s opening price. Many speculate that the U.S. election outcomes could positively affect crypto prices, though we believe that any correlation is weak beyond short-term timeframes. Regardless, today, Harris did a decent job debating Trump. About 15 minutes into the debate, the market reacted by dropping 1.72%. Monday and Tuesday were relatively uneventful in terms of Fed reports, but tomorrow, we’ll get the CPI and core CPI data. Last month’s inflation rate was 2.9%, and estimates are at 2.6%. If it comes in higher than 2.6%, the market could react negatively. If it meets or falls below expectations, we could see range trading for the next four months until liquidity flows back into the asset markets. ETF buying has also picked up, breaking a streak of selling. W: So far, we’re painting a green candle, hovering around the $55.9k weekly level. Tomorrow’s Fed report will likely determine whether we close the week above or below this critical level. D: In our last report, we noticed a bullish MACD divergence that has now played out. Weekend to Tuesday price action has pushed BTC back into the previous trading range of $55.9k to $58.4k. The lower bound is about to be tested as support. On Monday and Tuesday, the price nearly reached the BB MA and the upper bound of $58.4k. Monday’s green candle resembles a short squeeze, although it’s debatable how many participants are borrowing crypto from brokerages versus shorting regular or perpetual futures, the latter of which doesn’t result in a price spike if the trade goes against the shorts. Bearish to neutral if the weekly level holds. 4h: Currently trading above the BB MA, with the weekly level perfectly aligning with it. 1h: At the lower bound of the BB, Monday’s high and Tuesday’s high are drawing a MACD bearish divergence. Let’s see if this divergence played out during the presidential debate’s red candle or if more is to come tomorrow. Alts relative to BTC: No significant divergences noted besides 1 project. Read below in opportunities. Bull Case: Once again, BTC has pushed up, potentially driven by awakened bulls or a short squeeze, returning to its old trading range. September 6th marked the cycle bottom without breaking below the previous August 5th low of $49k. Global liquidity has been climbing for 72 consecutive days. With this and some positive macroeconomic news, BTC could hold between the $52.2k and $55.9k levels, possibly sparking a rally to $80k. Bear Case: Monday’s spike may not reflect genuine interest in crypto but rather a short squeeze, soon to be crushed by a contracting economy due to high interest rates. Fear and Greed Index: 45.01, back to neutral. Prediction: Range trading unless tomorrow’s Fed report throws a wrench into the works. Opportunities (W, 4h divergences of major alts): One coin that showed weaker price action during the last 4 bullish days is BINANCE:ARUSDT . While the market rallied, AR continued to sell off, signaling that insiders and whales may be keeping selling pressure high. AR still faces a potential 53% decline before it reaches the BTC ETF price level recorded on January 11th.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Sept 6. Start DCA'ing these altsOverview: The FRED:SP500 is down, NASDAQ:QQQ is down even more, and COINBASE:BTCUSD has dropped. Everything is red! Or wait… BINANCE:SUIUSDT is up! Could this still be the effects of the Grayscale Trust, and how much longer can SUI defy the overall market? Previous Grayscale picks like BINANCE:NEARUSDT and BINANCE:TAOUSDT aren’t performing as well on red days like yesterday. The Fed reported fewer new jobs added in August—lower than expected, even after multiple revisions. This was also fewer than the job additions in August of the past few years. Quantitative tightening is in full swing! These metrics signal a potential path to a rate cut, but large economies like the U.S. don’t pivot easily, especially not with just a move from 5.50% to 5.25%. Higher unemployment and fewer job openings will likely persist for months, possibly even quarters. Yet, no federal bailouts? No major bankruptcies? Meanwhile, commercial real estate is still struggling, with San Francisco’s office vacancy rate rising to 37%, up from 36.7% in Q1 2024. BTC ETFs are seeing 9 consecutive days of outflows. BINANCE:ETHUSD has seen consistent selling throughout August, except for a slight uptick on August 28th when Blackrock bought slightly above the original Grayscale Trust level. Believe it or not, this is when whales start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) back into the market. So why is the market falling if big players are buying? These deep pockets unloaded their portfolios and secured profits early in the year when green candles were stacking up. The current selling pressure is from retail traders, as reflected in ETF trends. If you still have cash (or those precious paychecks), this could be a good time to spread it out into 10-15 weekly buy orders. Don't try to catch the exact bottom—just remember the old adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." W: It’s only the first week of a bloody September, and BTC is already nearing the $52.15k weekly level. Sunday might be calm, with a potential bounce back to $55.9k. But watch out for Sunday evening (U.S. Eastern time) when the Asian bears wake up. D: Friday closed lower than August 5th. This is the third time we’re testing the $52-54k range—July 5, August 5, and now September 6. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. The worrying sign: yesterday’s volume was much lower than the previous two occurrences. No need to look far; volume has been rising over the last 7 days, confirming bearish sentiment. 4h: RSI dipped below 30 at 4 PM Eastern, but since then it’s bounced back 1.5%. Looking back at July 5 and August 5, we can see a key level around $54.4k (though this doesn’t hold on the daily chart). This is the point where decisions must be made. 1h: Price action is moving sideways. Alts relative to BTC: ETH has dropped more than BTC and other altcoins, falling to levels not seen since January 11th when the BTC ETF was approved. The argument that Layer 2 solutions diminish ETH’s "sound money" status isn’t helping. Bearish. On the bright side, APT has been trading below BTC ETF demand for 91 days and could be a good option for DCA. SUI shrugged off the recent sell-off and posted a 5.13% green candle, making it another solid contender alongside APT, as both are already below BTC ETF price levels. Bull case: Everyone who could sell has already sold. Now, only the diamond hands remain. Bear case: The capital allocators have finished realizing gains, and retail traders are finally waking up to the fact that the bull run has been canceled. Fear and Greed Index: 25.97 – an all-time low for 2024 and 2023. Prediction: A short-term rebound over the weekend, followed by further declines next week. Opportunities: Check out weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. Are you shorting TON yet? Mistakes: The bullish MACD divergence didn’t play out for BINANCE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and BINANCE:AVAXUSDT . When big brother (BTC) makes a move, it doesn’t matter what the technical analysis says for altcoins.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Sept 4Overview: Today marks a mini anniversary—exactly one month since the 15% COINBASE:BTCUSD BTC crash on August 5th, which concluded a 7-day bearish correction. This correction was the third wave in a 28-day cycle. Why does this matter? BTC tends to follow relatively short cycles and typically doesn’t take longer than a month to make a decisive move in either direction. If there’s momentum left, it’s time to pump. If not, we may see a dump. The Fed reported 7.7 million job openings in July, the lowest level since 2021. This was below the estimated 8.1 million and June’s 7.9 million. Job openings have been declining since March 2022, the month when the Fed first raised rates after cutting them to 0% in response to COVID-19. However, this figure is still higher than the peak of 7.6 million in November 2018. The Fed's goal isn’t to reach the same numbers as in 2018, but if we apply the growth in the U.S. economy since then, 7.6 million jobs in 2018 would be equivalent to 8.46 million in early 2024. Hence, discussions of an interest rate cut on September 18th are gaining momentum. On Wednesday, the VANTAGE:SP500 and NASDAQ:QQQ both opened and closed lower than the previous day, though they posted green candles. Despite this, their relation to the previous day is bearish. So far, this September is shaping up to be like others—Labor Day weekend is over, professionals are back at their desks, and business cycles are picking up (the last three trading days have shown higher volume since August 9th). As we mentioned yesterday, BTC’s new trading range is between $55.8k and $58.4k. It touched the lower bound of $55.8k at 9 PM NYC time and then climbed to $58.5k 15 hours later but has been sliding down since. BTC ETF flows have been negative for the last 7 days, despite occasional daily green candles. At Evgen Capital, we believe ETFs represent a less crypto-enthusiastic crowd, akin to the shoe shiner who once gave stock tips to John Rockefeller—prompting him to sell. As with the Fear and Greed Index that we quote regularly, one should move in the opposite direction of ETF flows. If they are negative for an extended period, it’s time to start buying. If they’re posting all-time highs, it’s time to sell. W: Up until today, it was a green weekly candle, but it has now turned into a red doji. Can it hold the $55.9k level? We don’t see many reasons for a quick dump, so BTC might remain in this range for another week. Big volatility is expected next week ahead of the September 18th rate cuts. Neutral. D: RSI is at 41. The last time it was here was August 15th, which preceded a 15% pump over 10 days, trapping the bulls. Bullish to neutral. 4h: Neutral. 1h: At the lower bound of the Bollinger Bands with a low RSI. Neutral to bullish. Alts relative to BTC: No divergences or major breakouts. Bull case: There is still time before the historically bearish October to push BTC up to 60k. ETFs are showing signs of capitulation, with 7 consecutive days of sell-offs. Bear case: There’s a lack of enthusiasm toward crypto, and negative news, like the SEC sending subpoenas to COINBASE:UNIUSD investors, continues to emerge. Fear and Greed Index: 34. No change. Prediction: For the rest of the week, BTC will likely retest the $55.9k level. If strong volume and buying power come in, bulls might be able to push through. Opportunities: Weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. COINBASE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and COINBASE:AVAXUSD show bullish MACD divergence. Even though BTC has been sliding lower, these altcoins reached their lows a few days ago, when we reported BTC-to-alts divergence. This is the time to decide which side to take and to set stop-limit orders.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Sept 3Overview: As we wrote on Sept 1st: "Tuesday brings a wave of bears." It's been a strong start to the week for bears. The VANTAGE:SP500 is down 2.12%, pushing aside hopes for new all-time highs and forming a pattern resembling a double top. The riskier NASDAQ:QQQ dropped even more, correcting 3.04%, further confirming bearish sentiment. Both of these corrections were preceded by their respective futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! and CME_MINI:NQ1! ) crashing 5 hours before the market opened, wiping out Friday's gains. Immediately after the stock market fell, BTC followed. We are now below the critical $58.4k weekly level, which had been tested many times. BTC even touched and bounced perfectly from the next weekly level of $55.8k. The new trading range is $55.8k - $58.4k. We conclude that this price action is likely due to insiders dumping assets or securing profits ahead of the Fed’s jobs report scheduled for Wednesday. One issue with the new $55.8k level is that it isn’t as strong as the previous level since it hasn't been tested as much. It's also away from the point of control (based on the volume profile) on all timeframes (1h, 4h, W), meaning it's not where the whales are trading. We likely won’t stay at this level for long. Global liquidity has resumed its upward climb after an 8-day decline, which perfectly mirrored the last BTC bull trap (yellow line on our chart). W: The week opened lower than the August 5th closing. Bearish. D: Played out as expected, hitting the BB MA at $59.8k on Monday, then dropping to the lower band at $55.5k. After bouncing off the lower support band, the price should naturally return to $58.4k to establish it as resistance before continuing the downtrend. 4h: At the lower band. RSI is close to 20 and hasn't crossed the 50 mark in the last 7 days. Bullish, unless Wednesday's Fed report knocks out the markets completely. 1h: What is less visible on the 4h chart is clearer on the 1h chart. A bullish MACD divergence is forming, and RSI is below 80. Target: $58.4k. Alts relative to BTC: COINBASE:ETHUSD , COINBASE:SOLUSD , and BINANCE:TONUSDT have declined lower than the August 4th closing. COINBASE:NEARUSD and BINANCE:ARUSDT haven’t yet, but they’re not far off. Bullish whales are keeping COINBASE:SUIUSD afloat despite strong headwinds. Bull case: All macroeconomic data has already been priced in, and we are at the bottom of the market. Whales have likely finished taking profits and will stop selling to retail traders, easing selling pressure. When the market looks this bearish, that's often when it pulls an "UNO Reverse" and starts pumping to new highs. We need to see full capitulation, like on August 5th, to target at least a short-term rebound. Bear case: Continuous confirmation of bearish sentiment: lower lows, lower highs. Fear and Greed Index: 34. Congratulations! We are officially in the fear zone. Historically, buying at this level tends to be profitable. If you start diligently DCAing while in Fear territory, you won't go broke. Prediction: BTC will likely spike up short-term to either the BB MA or the upper band, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. Opportunities: Weekly and 4h divergences in major altcoins: COINBASE:SUIUSD couldn’t hold its weekly level, which has now become resistance. BINANCE:TONUSDT next target is $2.48 (-46.5%). BINANCE:ARUSDT next target is $10.8 (-50%). COINBASE:SOLUSD and BINANCE:NEARUSDT both show 4h MACD divergence and are both at weekly levels. If BTC can trade sideways for 5-7 days, there are bullish opportunities in these two coins.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Natural Gas waking up? Nat gas showed some poise today. Holding green in a red market where most commodities saw negative price action. This is impressive to see because Nat gas has a long historical trend of diverging from many commodities. The price action today also saw a red to green reversal further emphasizing the positive potential trend shift. Nat gas stocks were discounted today despite the stronger price action in the commodity. We remain bullish and long UNG, our call positions in the money.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
AR RoadMap (1D)From where we put the arrow on the chart, it looks like AR has entered a correction. We can call the bullish pattern A/W wave and consider the wave we are in now as B/X. It is expected to form the green range of the C/Y wave. AR support range cannot be optimized and the range is large so control the risk. The targets are clear on the chart. For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry Comment if you have any questions Thank You
by behdark
Aug 23Overview: Wow, what a 24 hours it has been. At one point, BINANCE:SUIUSD was up 21.6%. Yesterday, we mentioned that "some long positions can be taken with a properly tight SL" once a new trading range was established. On August 21st, we wrote, " BINANCE:ARUSD , BINANCE:APTUSD , BINANCE:TAOUSD showed better price action in the last couple of days. They will likely continue trading higher next week, as BTC stays within its range." But let's break it down step by step. VANTAGE:SP500 posted a green candle, closing the week on a positive note. However, that candle was within the shadow of yesterday’s red candle, making it neutral rather than bullish. Additionally, Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole wasn't particularly dovish. It was seen as a signal that the Federal Reserve is prepared to maintain a restrictive stance on monetary policy to ensure inflation is brought under control, even if that means keeping interest rates higher for longer than the markets might prefer. BTC saw a massive $252 million in ETF flows from tradfi investors. And what did early Grayscale Trust adopters do? They sold $35.6 million worth of it. We’re left wondering how much of that $35.6 million was clients simply converting expensive GBTC into cheaper BTC fund, or if they sold for good. Unfortunately, even on-chain analytics won’t reveal that. ETH ETF? No chance... Tradfi investors don’t seem to grasp smart contracts. They sold $5.7 million worth, even during a significant BTC rally. Whales and other professional market actors are well aware that September is historically volatile and often brutal. Will they start selling and closing their positions in the last week of August, or will they wait until the first or second week of September, right before the expected interest rate cut? The big question is, do you want your portfolio to end up in a meat grinder? W: Yesterday’s BINANCE:BTCUSD wick went higher than the BB MA, but after a pullback, it settled nicely right at the precisely drawn W level of $64k. If bulls can keep it above the $63k level, we can start talking about a new bullish sentiment, but as of now, we are still in a bear market. No divergence. D: The $61.8 level was taken by bulls six times, and on the seventh attempt, they gathered enough strength. BTC rebounded after a crash, forming a nice bullish pennant. However, it has now reached the upper bound of the Bollinger Bands. Definitely not a time to go long—keep an eye on MACD or CVD divergences. 4h: RSI is above 70, but no MACD divergence yet. 1h: No divergences. Alts Relative to BTC: If BTC grew by 6%, BINANCE:APTUSD is up 9%, COINBASE:RNDRUSD is up 10%, BINANCE:NEARUSD is up 12%, and BINANCE:SUIUSD is up 20%. Is SUI gearing up to be 3rd favorite smart contract platform after SOL? Will be looking closely. Some of these started to rally 2-3 days ago. BINANCE:ETHUSD and BINANCE:SOLUSD performance was more underwhelming, posting only 5.4% and 7%, respectively. Are they so beaten up that fewer people want to touch them? Where’s the ETF crowd? Leave your thoughts in the comments. Bull Case: Bulls are able to hold the important W level in anticipation of rate cuts. Reaching that level has already happened; now it’s just a matter of staying there. If Panama, Brazil, and Paraguay announce Bitcoin as legal tender, following in the footsteps of El Salvador and the Central African Republic, this could fuel further bullish sentiment. Bear Case: The trend continues without a reversal. The Fed doesn’t cut rates quickly enough, and corporate earnings reveal weakness in consumer spending. Whales and insiders start selling and shorting in late September, causing the market to drop in October—a month historically tough for crypto (cough, cough... FTX). 2013: After a strong first half, Bitcoin saw a correction in September before resuming its rally towards the end of the year. 2017: Bitcoin experienced a notable dip in September, partly due to regulatory concerns in China. However, this was followed by a rapid recovery and an all-time high in December. 2021: After strong growth earlier in the year, September saw a decline due to regulatory fears and macroeconomic factors, although the market rebounded in Q4. Fear and Greed Index: 55.87. Remember—you only buy in 'Fear' territory, which is below 40. Prediction: We might see some altcoins grow a bit more, but overall, BTC is likely to post a Doji candle next week. Opportunities: On W and 4h charts, we continue to see many major altcoins in the RSI danger zone. Wait for Saturday’s price action and potential divergences to prepare for a Sunday sell-off.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Aug 22Overview: The S&P 500 corrected by 1.17%, as more turbulence is expected in its attempt to break the all-time high (ATH). The chances of a 1.73% rise on Friday are slim, but we still have one more week of a relatively calm August to set some bull traps. Thursday saw a correction for BTC, but it managed to hold the crucial $60.2 level, attempting to break it three times. This establishes a new range of $60.2 to $63.1, where some long positions could be taken with a properly tight stop-loss (SL). Over the last three weeks—specifically on Sunday, the 4th, 11th, and 18th—BTC has closed with red candles, highlighting the strength of the bears, who appear to be preparing for the upcoming week by selling BTC. There's no indication this week will be any different, so consider holding long positions until Sunday, then look into taking profits or even shorting. Weekly (W) : For the fourth week in a row, we’re holding the $58.2 level. Wicks are attempting to push lower, but the bulls remain strong. This still allows some room for a bullish scenario if we can break and hold the $63.1 level. However, with a potentially difficult September ahead, there's little to suggest extreme optimism towards this risky and still relatively alternative asset. No divergence observed. Daily (D): The main event on the daily timeframe is BTC’s escape from the daily range and breaking the Bollinger Bands moving average (BB MA). However, if we consider more recent daily levels, the trading range widens, and BTC has yet to break out of it, with resistance at $61.6. No divergence observed. 4-Hour (4h) : No divergence or signs of a reversal. BTC is approaching its sixth attempt to break the $61.6 resistance. 1-Hour (1h): Showed some weakness in its attempt to break and stay above $61.6, as bears activated and pushed it down. It’s now trading below the BB MA. Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins have been pumping at twice the rate of BTC. NEAR, SUI, APT, TAO, and FTM are all up by 4-7%. This growth is expected to continue through Friday and into the weekend. Bull Case: Same as yesterday. We believe BTC has found its bottom, and once more liquidity flows into the market, possibly following an interest rate cut, BTC will rally. The combination of the last week of August, followed by a small correction, could lead to further gains. Bear Case: The economy may be in worse shape than anticipated, and even with four interest rate cuts by the end of the year, we could still be in a recession. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 48.45, slightly lower than yesterday’s 49.59. This is surprising, given that BTC has been on the rise for the last three weeks since the crash. Prediction: Expect growth in the last week of August, followed by a slump in the first two weeks of September, and then a downturn. Opportunities: On the weekly (W) and 4-hour (4h) charts, watch for divergences in major alts like BINANCE:NEARUSDT NEAR, BINANCE:APTUSDT APT, BINANCE:ARUSDT AR, $BINANCE:RNDRUSDT RNDR, BINANCE:TAOUSDT TAO, and BINANCE:FTMUSDT FTM. All have RSI above 70. Wait for Friday to see if MACD divergences emerge as this initial push weakens and they approach weekly resistance levels.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Natural Gas: are bulls capitulating? The bulls have made 9 attempts at breaking out. All attempts have failed which has led us to this sharp decline. Nat gas is holding the 20 day MA but it does look somewhat vulnerable to going lower. The death cross is getting closer and closer as we approach the 50 MA & 200 MA downtrending intersection. Our members stopped out of the second half of UNG in profits I am now hoping and waiting for a sub $2 pierce retest. we shall see if we get it.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
Trade Setup: AR Long PositionMarket Context: AR, a strong utility token, is holding up well and breaking through an important resistance level, flipping it into support. This indicates strength and presents a potential trading opportunity. Trade Setup: Entry: Long trade around $23. Take Profit: First target: $28 Second target: $35 Stop Loss: Around $19.5. 📊 This setup capitalizes on the strength shown by AR in a risk-off environment. Manage risk effectively, and watch for confirmation of the support holding. #AR #CryptoTrading #UtilityToken
Long
by Richtv_official
Aug 21Overview: There were no surprises in the Fed’s meeting minutes. "Officials were confident about the direction of inflation and are ready to start easing policy if the data continues to cooperate." However, too many traders are interpreting this as “on September 18th, my $stonks go up.” Don’t be one of them. VANTAGE:SP500 posted another green candle, but momentum is slowing as it approaches its ALH, now just 0.82% away. We might see it by the end of the week, reducing the chances of $ BINANCE:BTCUSDT BTC crashing this weekend. $63.2k is still a possibility for BINANCE:BTCUSDT BTC as it slowly inches closer, needing only a 4.28% increase over the next 2-3 weeks. W: Heading to close this week green. No divergences. D: Finished Wednesday strong, posting a green candle, solidifying the BB MA breakout, and escaping the $60.2k level, which should now turn into support. Expecting to close the week between $60.2k and $63.2k. 4h: No divergences. Range trading. 1h: No divergences. Range trading. Alts Relative to BTC: No divergence relative to BINANCE:BTCUSDT BTC. Bull Case: Same as yesterday. We’ve likely passed the bottom (or an intermediate bottom), and with the booming VANTAGE:SP500 , expected rate cuts each month, and more institutional money flowing into risky assets in September, we should continue marching up. IPO stocks, small-cap tech stocks, and crypto are poised to benefit. Bear Case: Same as yesterday. Fear and Greed Index: Slowly trending higher, now almost exactly in the middle at 49.59. Untradeable. Prediction: Close this week green, then grow to $63k next week before a drop. Opportunities: BINANCE:UNIUSDT UNI Expected to complete its move to $7.52, offering a 7.87% gain. BINANCE:ARUSDT AR, BINANCE:APTUSDT APT, BINANCE:TAOUSDT TAO Have shown better price action in the last couple of days and may continue trading higher next week, as BINANCE:BTCUSDT BTC stays within its range. These moves are not indicator-driven, so proceed with extreme caution and tight stop-losses.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Aug 20Overview: For the first time in the last six trading days, the S&P 500 closed with a red candle (-0.20%), even though its wick extended higher than the previous trading day. The key macroeconomic event to watch this week is the release of the "Minutes of the Fed's July FOMC meeting" on Wednesday, which will provide insights into the discussions and debates among Federal Reserve officials, revealing their views on the current state of the economy. Overall, this week might be relatively calm as the market anticipates potential rate cuts, election outcomes, and TradFi executives wrapping up their vacations. For example, much of Western Europe essentially shuts down in August, with many French citizens heading to the south of France, Germans traveling to Turkey, and Italians and Spaniards taking a more relaxed approach to work all year round. By the way, it's been a while since we’ve seen any major hacks or rug pulls in the crypto space. Imagine running the 15th largest crypto exchange and starting to see diminishing returns as enthusiasm for the current bull run fades. You also notice more consolidation among the top 2-3 CEXs, while DEXs are gaining traction and cutting into your profits. This grim outlook might lead to some troubling thoughts cooking up. Although FTX filed for bankruptcy on November 12th, and BTC at that time dropped by 70%, we still have time to make informed decisions as we sit at the end of August. Remember: not your keys, not your crypto ...cough ...cough Lido... Alts Relative to BTC: Alts haven’t diverged much from BTC, but on the 4-hour chart, ETH shows a small MACD divergence between Sunday the 18th and Tuesday the 20th, with SOL showing it even more clearly. This suggests that while BTC remains within its daily range, alts are showing more weakness. Only AR and TAO have shown positive price action in the last two days. We know about the Grayscale news regarding the TAO trust, but what’s driving AR? In the DeFi sector, AAVE continues to pump. Bull Case: We’ve reached the bottom and are now heading upward. Alts are already at their lows, and major institutional investors and governments haven’t even started accumulating the new digital gold. The world’s major economies are relatively healthy, and in 3-4 years, we might look back at 2024 as the bottom and the end of the "COVID economy." More money could flow into risky and alternative assets like crypto. Bear Case: Despite the macro outlook, crypto has likely reached its intermediate bull run, driven mainly by ETF demand without any major crypto breakthroughs or new use cases like DeFi. In reality, only a few market participants hadn’t yet entered the crypto space and needed an institutional vehicle like an ETF. Fear and Greed Index: 45.39. The index has flattened over the last three days, mirroring BTC’s price, indicating neither strong buy nor sell opportunities. Weekly: Range trading, slowly moving toward the BB MA, which it may reach within the next two weeks (conveniently the last two weeks of August). Daily: BTC continues to trade within its daily range. It broke above the BB MA, but no significant pump followed. Bulls appear weak and may need more accumulation, a "whale push," or this might not be the time. Was it a fake-out? 4-Hour: Range trading, no divergences. 1-Hour: Range trading, no divergences. Prediction: Range trading with a possible spike up to $62k. Opportunities: SOL: Shows a bearish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe but could quickly reverse if BTC prints a green candle. TON: Has completed the "Motive" part of Elliott’s wave pattern. In about 40 hours, it might finish the B wave, presenting a short opportunity that could last through the entire C wave down. Follow for daily updates. First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Aug 19 and week's overview.Overview: The weekend passed without significant CRYPTOCAP:BTC price movement, holding the daily level at $58.2k. On Monday, bulls rallied, managing to push the price up to $58.4k, signaling a potentially bullish week ahead. This renewed buying interest could be attributed to the VANTAGE:SP500 closing with a strong +1% gain, reminding traders of the generally positive performance of stocks in August, though caution is warranted as September and October tend to be more turbulent. CRYPTOCAP:BTC has bounced off the $58.2k level roughly five times in the last eight days. This marks the second correction week after BTC’s 30% crash, with a 23% recovery so far, suggesting a possible rally towards the next weekly level of $63k. Trading within this midrange is risky, as the price could move in either direction. Tight stop-losses (1-1.5%) and modest take-profits (3-3.5%) are advisable. Global Liquidity: Growing, which is bullish. Open Interest: Declining, but Monday saw increased capital commitment, indicating short-term bullishness. Last week ended with a small-bodied red candle, which is neutral to bearish. A similar pattern was seen in late May 2021, where a brief 18% rally was followed by a 30% decline. Weekly: Range trading with no divergence. Daily: Monday approached the BB MA, and early Tuesday broke above it, trending upward with a potential 3.7% gain. The current candle is still forming, so it's unclear if this is a genuine breakout or a false move. 4h: No significant changes or divergences. 1h: Increasing volume suggests the current upward trend is strengthening, though the RSI is in overbought territory above 70. If the RSI forms a double top near $63.1, it could be a shorting opportunity. Alts Relative to BTC: While BTC has broken above the BB MA, altcoins have only cautiously approached it. Retail traders seem to have caught on to Grayscale’s announcement of new trusts for NYSE:SUI and GETTEX:TAO , with GETTEX:TAO up 17% in the last four days, as we anticipated in our August 11th analysis. Bull Case: BTC continues to rally towards $62-63k, completing the recovery from the recent crash. Bear Case: Swing traders may turn bearish and start selling off. Fear and Greed Index: Rising, currently at 46.14 since August 16th. Prediction: BTC is likely to rally to $63k, with altcoins like NYSE:SUI , AMEX:NEAR , AMEX:APT , NYSE:AR , and GETTEX:TAO potentially gaining 7-10%. Opportunities: AMEX:NEAR : Approaching its weekly resistance at $4.38, offering a potential 6.45% gain. UPCOM:FTM : Has reached its weekly resistance at $0.4. Also, do you remember DeFi? ASX:MKR and BME:UNI , which are trading at pre-BTC ETF demand levels despite their strong fundamentals. They are actually earning hard cold cash, proving a use case for crypto: In July ASX:MKR earned fees: $19.7m, revenue of $7.54m; Aave fees $29.4m, revenue of $4.78m; and Uni collecting $47.7m in fees with no revenue provided. Follow for daily updates. First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Natural gas is the downtrend resuming? Nat gas still fits all the criteria for a large downtrend. Lower highs & Lower lows are still in place on the weekly timeframe. This obviously swings probabilities in favour of lower price. However historically were still at some oversold levels. Just because this asset is oversold honest mean it can't go lower. Im watching the daily 50MA & 200MA closely...do we get the death cross formation to occur again? Usually this signal provides a near term bounce but medium term decline.
Editors' picks
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
7
Aug 17Overview: The cryptocurrency market is currently in a cautious phase. Weekends typically see minimal price swings, though Sunday evenings can bring volatility. Declining open interest suggests a lack of confidence, with traders closing positions and exiting the market. The August 5th liquidations also pushed remaining traders to leave, further reducing market participation. This environment points to continued consolidation, with potential for volatility as the weekend ends. Looking back at BTC’s weekend price action, similar patterns emerge: a crash, a small rebound, approaching the Bollinger Bands moving average (BB MA), and then continued decline. Bearish scenarios include January 15-16, 2022; June 5-6, 2022; and more recently, June 29-30, 2024. A bullish argument is found in May 11-12, 2024, when Saturday and Sunday marked the end of the first bull wave and the start of the second in 2024. However, that was 33 days after the downturn began, while we are currently at day 20. This past week may have been the calm before the storm. Alts Relative to BTC: No divergences. Bull Case: Everyone who wanted to sell has likely sold. Now we wait for an event to trigger a buying spree that could draw a 4th wave on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. Bear Case: No bulls come to the rescue, and the market drops further. Fear and Greed Index: 44.9, rising over the last two days, but given the weekend, it may not carry much weight. W: Range trading, no divergences. D: Reached BB MA and is touching it at $59.9k. 4h: Approached $60.2k for the second time but couldn’t break that daily level. We’re also at the top of the Bollinger Bands range, which is relevant for those trading sideways movements. No divergence. 1h: No divergences, but there’s a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern. Prediction: Most likely move down significantly, or range trade, then decline. Opportunities: CRYPTOCAP:SOL : Attempting to break the weekly resistance level. NYSE:SUI : Bounced from support and is now trending upward. NYSE:AR and CRYPTOCAP_OLD:RNDR : Sitting on the weekly level; their next move will be quick, so choose your side. Follow for daily updates. First 100 followers receive free market analysis and signals subscription.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
5