$NEO - Korean arbitrage and a half year cup and handle formationNEO/BTC - D - Binance.
Korean arbitrage has been messing with international traders for a while now. Kimchi premium.
Take a look at these pictures:
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ATH: ~$200, which is based on multiplying the hl2 of 14 Jan. for $BTC.
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259,600WON = 240USD
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Arbitrage
How to Set Fair Value Crypto Price Targets Using Basic AnalysisMost people here are reading a bunch of charts and that's fair, but if all you understand are charts then you won't understand the most critical, basic elements of how to fairly value a cryptocurrency. Don't fall for some of the nonsense that others propose as guidance for how to invest in cryptoassets. These people are obviously ignorant clowns here to entertain you rather than help you invest in a sound, reasonable way that will guide you towards a meaningful long term position with cryptoassets in your portfolio.
The first valuation method I propose is extremely simple and extremely accurate. It is simply a relative valuation based on Bitcoin market cap. This is a simple way to find arbitrage opportunities in the market.
By using Cryptocompare's USD Coins List you can see sort coins by "Market Cap". In general this can be assumed accurate with the exception of pre-mined and/or highly dubious coins with structural centralization features such as XRP and Dash (although you'll probably be
So if we're looking at Bitcoin's market cap at this moment, it is $118.5 B.
Looking at Litecoin it is $7.03 B.
$7.03 / $118.5 = .05932
So Litecoin is 5.932% of Bitcoin's market cap.
Bitcoin price is $7033 (might be slightly off here) at the time that market cap was $118.5 and Litecoin price $127.50
0.05932 * $7033 = $417.20
Since Litecoin has a higher coin emissions curve and a higher supply than Bitcoin then we need to adjust the valuation based on the coin supply.
You can look up the coin supply by going to the individual coin's page on Cryptocompare.
Litecoin is at roughly 55,097,000 (55 million or so) coins (I'm doing this off memory and it changes every 2.5 minutes)
Bitcoin is at 16,849,775 coins.
Dividing Bitcoin's supply by Litecoin's to get the "coin supply ratio" :
16849775 / 55097000 = 0.3058
So Bitcoin is about 30.58% of Litecoin's current supply. Since Litecoin is creating coins 4X faster than Bitcoin but started 2 years later, over time this 30.58% ratio will move towards 25%. I'm not going to do the math there but you can figure out the rate of change pretty easily but essentially, that number will decline over time. So in the case of Litecoin there is a slight discounting effect that happens over time due to the declining "coin supply ratio."
So we can then take our $417.20 * 0.3058 = $127.58
Note that for example with Bitcoin Cash that the supply is identical so you don't really need to do this step. And for coins that have less supply than Bitcoin you would use a "coin supply ratio" that is greater than 1 so that the lower supply has a multiplying effect on price.
And amazingly enough, this is what the market is more or less asking for Litecoin almost to the penny.
If we take into account: coin emissions rate differential and coin market cap relative growth
then we can VERY easily find arbitrage opportunities by setting targets for when we see divergence from the market price and what should be fair value.
I will save this discussion for another time but you can pretty plainly see how a coin that has an expectation of doubling its market cap in relation to Bitcoin will have a high probability of increasing its value/price by a factor of 2.
So then it becomes a matter of measuring/filtering for the rate of change in relative market cap as that is one of the central influencing factors to find coins that are "on sale" at least until their metrics change. I won't get into that here, but it's generally easy to intuit with knowledge of the overall crypto market but not that hard to put in concrete numbers either.
TRX Binance - Cryptopia arbitrage opportunity TRX just launched on Cryptopia several hours ago www.cryptopia.co.nz
As of this post
BINANCE:TRXBTC is @ 542 sats
The cryptopia TRX/BTC pair is 587 sats.
Do your own math on fees for the deposit, trade, and transfer - but before fees it's a whopping 8.3%.
You're welcome. :)
Short BTCUSD: PT 10094 within the next 3 monthsBTC has be very volatile but as you can see from the top of 19000.00 it has been fluctuating (topping) around 15500. On the daily chart our compass has just crossed our black rsi line at the top of our arbitrage band.
This is about to be beautifully ugly!
15 minute chart... topping... 3rd deviation
1 hour chart... topping 3rd deviation
I'll be buying back in at the bottom!
See ya there!
CLNS PT: 13.39 within the next 3 monthsWe are 3 deviations down from the mean on the daily chart
and on the 15 minute chart we are just about to begin a new swing trade up.
See you in a few days
AGRX PT: 3.90 10 daysThis guy has fallen beneath 3 deviations on the daily scale.
And on the 15 minute scale we are just about to rebound with new higher highs showing on our Arbitrage Tick indicator.
Our Advance level is trying it's best to get some positive momentum when it does cross the dotted green line up we go!
See you at the top!
AAP New 1 Year Price Target: 152.59Arbitrage Level and Advance level are both above the 0 line which indicates all 5 of Arbitrage Bands are all pointing up for the first time since May of this year.
We have a new higher on yesterday within our Arbitrage Tick indicator
And 3 days ago Arbitrage Bands signaled a new up trend was beginning.
Stop loss is set at 86.54 which is the value of our RSI line within our Arbitrage Band
Fall down Friday Pick of the day : Vmw Price target 114.63We have topped out our Arbitrage Band, Novice Band and Advance Band.
Expecting it to test support on the Arbitrage Band at 114.63 before the next possible/probable move up.
Our Arbitrage Advance Level is struggling to stay above the 0 line which means our Arbitrage Band itself is changing direction and slowing turning down.
VMW has been rallying since it's first new higher high on July 17th of this year. The first new lower low will confirm the new trend.
JCP New 1 Year Price Target:4.95 Arbitrage advance level has finally crossed the 0 line which means our Arbitrage Band is finally pointing up
Arbitrage Tick has signaled we had a new higher high within the last 2 days
And the Arbitrage Band has signaled a green flag letting us know it's time to enter the trade.
3 standard deviations from our mean puts JCP at 4.95 within the year.
BTC Arbitrage Opportunity (USD/BRL)Good arbitrage opportunity on BTC USD/BRL.
Buy BTC with USD on Coinbase, sell for BRL in MercadoBitcoin, send USD back to original account.
17% spread each round, I estimate costs at around 2%, so 15% profit for each round.
The graph shows spread for this operation over time.
SQNS PT: 4.51 within the next 3 monthsThe arbitrage band's rsi line has reached the bottom of the band and leveled out.
We also have a green flag signaling the beginning of an up trend.
The advance level on arbitrage level just crossed the 0 line which means our arbitrage band is finally also pointing up
Arbitrage Tick is also signaling a new higher high with Green crossing over red on the daily chart
Expecting HTZ Mean Reversion on Htz Hourly Chart PT:24.53Arbitrage Level has hit the bottom and Arbitrage Band is also touching it's 3rd deviation. Should be a nice bounce.
Spread between Exchanges BTCBRL (Foxbit x MercadoBitcoin)In order to summarize an opportunity that pops up once in a while, I´ve seen that due to a disparity across exchanges (liquidity, fees charged and wallet availability) they´ve must have a perpetual difference in prices, however, no more than 3%, MercadoBitcoin higher than Foxbit. Why?
1) MercadoBitcoin charges 1.99% over deposits in BRL. Foxbit doesn´t. (+1.99% spread)
2) MercadoBitcoin charges 1.99% over withdraws in BRL. Foxbit charges 1.39% only. (+0.6% spread)
3) MercadoBitcoin charges 0.3% for passive orders and 0.7% for active order. Foxbit charges 0.25% and 0.5%, respectively. (+0,05% //+0,2%)
Obs: Suppose that you have at least 1 BTC (MercadoBitcoin only allows deposits and transfers for 1 BTC) and that fees paid for miners will be the same.
So, summing them up it means that MercadoBitcoin have +2.8% cost incurred in its price, meaning that if prices have distortions more than +2.8% it signalizes gains for the following trade: Long BTCBRL on MercadoBitcoin // Short BTCBRL on Foxbit.
Any comments/tips are highly appreciated.
Spread between BTCBRL and BTCUSDLooks like we had an opportunity to explore the arbitrage spread between BRL / USD using bitcoin in August. It existed until late September but closed in 2 days, coming back from 20% to 7%. Another window was back in May.17, but it lasted for shorter than the Aug one, which is interesting.
Do you guys agree? How could be possible that the market let this happen for longer than it has previously occurred? Is there a lack of transactional liquidity in Brazil that didn´t allow crypto traders to take advantage of those arbitrage opportunity as they would like to?
Please share your thoughts.
RMG
LTCUSD 1H short, CryptoArbitrageDivergencePrice of LTCUSD is rising on OKCOIN while the Price for the same Pair is falling on BITSTAMP.
This may be an indication, that the Price is reversing on OKCOIN.