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Gold and DXY - What does 94+ imply? "Look for the arch in March"Gold has been in consolidation since the summertime highs. The fundamental picture for gold is the same and strengthening. Lots of noise about the rising dollar and the 'end-of-days' for precious metals. While there are many obvious cases for Gold fundamentals, we are often presented with the binary view (ST speculator noise) where DXY and GOLD have an inverse relationship. Instrumental correlation with gold in fact changes over time, for example since 2019 TLT and US10Y have been much more closely correlated with GOLD, but we won't dismiss the psychological impact of a rising DXY. So here is where I think we are based on past patterns. Looking for a rising DXY in a gold bull market phase takes us back to 2010, analogous to where we are now assuming (somewhat) symmetrical bull markets. This window shows a period of initial decline into support and then strengthening along with the DXY. This 181-day window for this phase to play out can be applied to where we are now with some success. From an initial turn-up of the DXY and the simultaneous drop from highs, we bottom this first decline in early March at NOV LOW levels. This test of NOV 30 LOWS in EARLY MARCH (1764 around the ~5th?) tests the 10yr arc support, before a similar rise of equal value brings us back to testing the summer highs and beyond. The DXY can continue to rise, which may initiate the sell-off into support before resuming the up-trend in spring into summer. I think this early March bottom is supported by the similar NOVEMBER/MARCH 2012 (Yellow) resistance tests at the same level, now flipped to support. I'm not a big believer in seasonality for gold, as much as I would say, CORN, but the NOV/MAR 1764 symmetry is noted! One concern with this may be that 94 on the DXY (above the yellow horizon in the lower pane) is a much higher, more psychological level than was present in 2010. A rise from current levels into and through 94 is marked out in purple April 2018 window by a similar selloff and eventual resumption. This is the most I've felt like writing here, maybe my presentation skills need to catch up with my thinking. But let's sum up by saying: "LOOK FOR THE ARCH IN MARCH" - March 5th 1764 support, bull off double bottom to test highs in July BONUS: This model gives an initial PT for OCT 2022 of 2648. But let's get through March first. Zoom out, chill out. Peace.
TVC:GOLDLong
by ptero1492
USDCAD 1.26405 + 0.06 % * STRUCUTRE & DIRECTION IDEA HIGHER TFRMHello everyone Hope everyone is having a good one on the charts this week MORE MONEY LESS GREED, here's a look at USD/CAD from the monthly perspective to determine some the direction ideas in the coming weeks, looking from the monthly char the pair has respected an arc formation which saw a breakout of this structure and a retest pushed down to support level 1.30225 broke down and currently seems to be on a verge of a retest of this level so looking at price and technical aspects seems the pair can push down with the bears for a while so we are net bearish on the DOLLAR CAD & THAT'S MY 2 CENTS ON THE DIRECTION AND PRICE. AS ALWAYS PROPER RISK MANAGEMENT AND A LOT OF PATIENCE & AGAIN many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules. LET'S SEE HOW IT GOES.. HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN... _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES RISK-MANAGEMENT PERIOD - SWING TRADE __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
Short
by PULEMokhothu
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