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Forex retail traders in a nutshell99% of retail FX traders are scalpers or day gamblers or "swing" traders. According to a paper on the BOJ website I'll link below, in 2015 a mindblowing 57% of retail clients were "scalpers". 86% were either scalpers (0 to 1 hour) or day gamblers (1 hour to 1 day). They excluded those with positions held over 1 month, 1 week to 1 month was only about 5%, much much smaller than all the day gambling. "Share of accounts by investment time horizon" So it's not 86% of trades it's really 86% of accounts. For something very niche that no one does. www.boj.or.jp Can't blame the FX brokers for giving their clients, which are nearly all gamblers, what they want. These gamblers looking for excitation and with get rich quick dreams. Success rate of 0% not even 1% not sure what's going on up there. They're not even meant for this business at all. Becoming a trader when you have risk & loss aversion facepalm. "It's ok I can work on my flaws and improve" It is like if being an exterminator would pay a whole lot and so people with a phobia, terrified of rats would start getting into the business "Yes I'm scared to death of rats but I can make it work, for the money do not try to demoralize me". Or snakes & spiders maybe that's a better example, more people scared of wittle spiders. Clearly ridiculous. "My whole lower body is paralysed but that won't stop me from running a marathon (on my hands?) and winning!". Since Europe banned binary options (gosh what a scam), which was at least forcing day gamblers to have fixed losses, and with the exception of a few turbos, day gamblers really have their work cut out for them: At least with online casinos they have a fixed loss. Bet 1 coin lose 1 and that's it. But when they day gamble Forex there is not "hard loss" so they can keep letting the loss get bigger and bigger (due to loss aversion). Some regulators want to fight retail trading, and keep spreading FUD about it "99% lose". What do you expect? Doesn't mean it's soooo hard, 99% lose but do not forget 99% are drunk gamblers! Forex especially since the late 2000s and even more since 2013-2015 has very little trends, not much volatility, and not that much returns to offer, so it gets a more and more negative image but FX traders are allowed to look elsewhere when nothing happens. Maybe really dumb regulators are going to ban it the moment it turns and becomes very profitable again. They have all these mental flaws: - Risk Aversion - Loss Aversion - Caring what others do and think - Casino mentality - Emotional behavior in general (FOMO, regret, confirmation bias, denial, etc many more) About the casino mentality here are 2 articles about a recent comment by Charlie Munger: www.nasdaq.com www.investopedia.com These day gamblers, at least they should pick the correct tools where they might have a chance. The best one has to be the DAX (the Dow Jones might come close too): Pros: - Very small costs (house edge is the smallest) - Lots of activity while it is open for 8 hours - I think about 1/5 days are good trend days - 90% of days have the top or bottom of the day in the first 90 minutes I think, or something like that - There are other cool stats but I don't really remember - AND many other day gamblers also bet on it! The money gamblers hope to win has to come from somewhere, well here it comes from other day gamblers. So I'm guessing all the day gamblers just do the same thing? Buy the trend when there may be one, and what separates the winners from the losers is the ones with the biggest... personalities hold their winners and have what it takes to exit losers fast... And that's it... Zero intelligence... I do not know or understand what gets the vast majority into this whole super short term game, broker propaganda? That's just how gambling mentality works? 99% can't just all be gamblers? Did people lie to them and tell them this is how you are supposed to trade? Why did I never hear about this lie myself? Does it come from what they saw in some movies and tv? (I never watch tv).
XETR:DAXEducation
by MrRenev
1
ARE Argonaut Resources (asx)I believe we have seen a bottom in this stock. there is a large upside potential for this penny stock. after checking the rise today, I see that on volume-money flow we are at the highest level since 1999, divergence on rsi and macd have been present for some time and we see now they are rising well. My initial target will be between .27 and .3 that is 30x or 3000% from here. based on the cycles on the daily a breakout up cycle should take around 700days or 2 years to reach (dec 2021). afterwards next targets are .44 and .7 (last ATH)
ALong
by djmitchb
1
TSLA monthly hints at new alltime highsThis is an extremely simple observation: Every time the monthly stoch RSI went to 100, so full overbought, we saw new alltime highs. Quite simple! That was already twice the case, and I think it will happen again now. TSLA is on a brutal run, I by the way also called the bottom back in may, it was pretty clear back then that this was a huge trap for poor shorters: So yes, chartwise this is pretty simple. But the fundamentals also confirm this: Gigafactory 3 finished, Model 3 production started there. Maybe extension of EV rebates. Gigafactory 4 near Berlin starts in being built in Jan 2020. Growth, expansion, growth on all fronts.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by SebastianofMoon
5
BTC New Rocket? Sub Daily I am neutral. Daily I am definitely leaning bullish. Analysis: In most of these downtrends with BTC you see several triangle consolidations, and they become more visible with the Heikin Ashi. Right now we are breaking up out of one. Moving Averages: On my 8HR Heikin Ashi I have translated 50+200 Daily SMAs as well as 50+200 4HR EMAs. All MAs are consolidating. The 50 EMA could create a nice rejection off the 200 EMA indicating bullish movement. The Daily 50 SMA was pressed, possibly indicating a reversal. Pivots/Fibs/Support/Resistance: Monthly Pivot was breached but only recently. Weekly S2 was tested and held well. Previous resistance zone 6850 and local Fib might be turned support now. TD Sequential: Daily had a fairly gentle decline, and 8 HR Heikin Ashi put out several bullish indicators recently.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by A1phaBoss
The Reason Why YOU Are Fish Food For WhalesThe Reason Why YOU Are Fish Food For Whales That's exactly how most people react, who are greedy and don't understand the market. Once Bitcoin is in high, many think it would only go up. As soon as Bitcoin is in the deep, many think you could buy cheaper later. But mostly the opposite happens. You can see how easy you can become fish food for whales. You actually buy their expensive coins and later sell them cheap. Over time, you will lose more and more money until you end up with nothing left. That's when a bull market really starts. A tip: If you want to change something, think differently than others.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by EWHALE
17
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Looking Up Again...Next Buy-Points Today Bitcoin: BTCUSD Looking Up - Next Buy Points Today Having spent the overnight session in far East with no buyers or real interest Bitcoin drifted as a consequence. But the good news was it didn't crash ...that is a massive positive sign that whilst it was getting tired overnight, it wasn't getting rejected and sold off - just neglected more than rejected. Good for the bulls here. Overnight it has also completed a 4 sections down move, similar to previous down-moves in this run though not so well defined as the last couple, but still similar. And now in London it has been bought once more. Usual 'Tokyo Drift' overnight then met with some serious buying out of Europe at 8.30 utc. This break-out, although consolidating now, is a good one by the looks of it. To break out from here and try to leave all the structure to its left is the first really bold move Bitcoin has made for a couple of days - all price action up to this point has been consolidating in nature - it's done well and the bulls are beginning to win this 800 point argument that's been raging for these last 2 days. But right now it's showing spikes on the 15 minute chart on Bitstamp and is liklely to come off some more - the pattern we were looking for has emerged overnight and been broken decisively to updside by this morning's price action - if day trading you will probably have already bought the break out and now will likely have sold (spikes showing and it's hit clear resistance line on Bitstamp too) If so, good trading! And if not, it's OK too, it's been and gone and there will be another one coming soon - and so we look to buy the dips again
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
Wyckoff's 'Composite Man' showing his handCrypto is still the wild west, even with the adoption that has happened so far; here we can see a huge wash trade unfolding in Ripple. To copy from stockcharts, here are Richard D. Wyckoff's remarks on market operators (the composite man) and wash trading: -The Composite Man carefully plans, executes, and concludes his campaigns. -The Composite Man attracts the public to buy a stock in which he has already accumulated a sizeable line of shares by making many transactions involving a large number of shares, in effect advertising his stock by creating the appearance of a “broad market.” -One must study individual stock charts with the purpose of judging the behavior of the stock and the motives of those large operators who dominate it. -With study and practice, one can acquire the ability to interpret the motives behind the action that a chart portrays. ----Wyckoff and his associates believed that if one could understand the market behavior of the Composite Man, one could identify many trading and investment opportunities early enough to profit from them. If you are looking to make large returns on the XRPUSD or XRPBTC pair right now, keep a tight stop-loss and consider the (lack of) forces behind this sudden momentum. It is interesting to see how the XRPUSD price has been kept in a very tight range for so many months and over the last few hours pushed to a breakout. With analysis of volume and price action I believe it may be possible to measure if something is being manipulated. Which could be valuable information if you would like to join such a force. If anyone is interested in working on a project regarding this please message me.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDEducation
by mcbw_
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Now you're stalkingBitcoin: BTCUSD Half-Time NOW you're stalking Football half time and Bitcoin has just broken above that old trend line - and nw it's coming back to test it from above ...so cool, so far...it should dance between the line and fixed support potential at 7350 ....the old near term resistance becoming support...as you were writing a text book and the stock just obeyed the rules...it's so weird. It should, if it carries on behaving in classical fashion bounce here - if it doesn't , support is close at hand....raise stops to just under 7240 or even to 7320 if day trading and running a big profit...otherwise hold. We either lose 30 points or...the .upside is incalulable once 7500 is beaten
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon