A comprehensive overview of the ETH shopping areasLet's start with what Merge is and how does it affect the price?
This is where ETH switches from POW to POS. This means that the "production" of new Ethers can drop by as much as 90%.
However, you should be aware of the dangers that could occur if the update failed.
But as always, let's try to be optimistic for a moment!
Knowing the past, or if you prefer history. We can predict with greater probability what will happen next. And I don't just mean wars that were usually caused by the same thing, crises that were usually caused by the same… .. I mean Bitcoin halving. So, while writing about Ethereum, we will focus on Bitcoin for a moment.
Since the price increased after each Bitcoin halving, we can assume that he will potentially do it again.
Let's go a step further, since after halving the difficulty of extracting or "producing" increased by half and thus we received a smaller reward by half for the excavated block, so we can assume that after the next halving it will be similar again.
So let's ask ourselves another question :)
Is Merge for Ethereum like halving for Bitcoin?
Well, not really, because the market will not get 50% less BTC, only 90% less Ethers. So Merge is more than that!
We have a price curve on a logarithmic scale, but it's not a Rainbow. I simply took these levels as benchmarks.
Note the “Kind of a head with arms that ended us hosse at ETH.
The left arm is yellow circles,
The head is a red circle,
The left arm is a blue circle.
Right after we had our left shoulder and some drops, we had time to go shopping.
SHOPPING AREA - I marked it in blue. It is a place where, in my opinion, you should buy, regardless of whether the price is rising or falling locally
BUY ONLY AFTER ADJUSTMENT - I have marked this area in yellow. this is a place where corrections of 20-50% should not surprise anyone, but should be treated as a potential chance to enter an uptrend.
GETTING INPUT - The pink area should be the place to think about making a profit, or at least and necessarily take out your crypto financial contribution. You should reward yourself for perseverance and consistent implementation of the strategy :) Let the rest of the "free" money work.
LEAVE THE MARKET! - in the red area, forget about buying, this is the place where you should leave the market and wait for a drop of over 60-70-80% and repeat everything again.
Well, now let's talk about price levels and percentage increases (if everything goes according to plan)
We already know that after the second Bitcoin halving, the price of etherum also shot up and despite the initial sideways trend and declines, we finally grew from $ 12 to over $ 1,500, i.e. over 12,000% ....
Another time it was not so spectacular.
After the third Bitcoin Halving ETh, $ 4,800 rose from around $ 200. This time the increase was over 2,100%
And now let's think that if Ethereum was able to increase so much in percentage, is it possible to scenario that we will grow again 12,000% - let's get down to earth and, despite the optimism, let's become realistic for a moment. The crypto market grew after Bitcoin and that much in ETH at that time nothing changed, but it grew.
This time, however, is different.
We have more than Bitcoin halving on Ethereum, so can I assume Ethereum will grow at least 2,100%? Sounds better, right?
If I get off for 2,100% increases and the price rises to 12,000%, should I cry and bang my head on the table? NOT. If you make a profit, you should be happy, no matter if it is 10%, 100% or 2000%.
Let it not be, these are not investment advice. SueI am just trying to put my thoughts on paper ... or rather on a computer screen.
Let's look at the percentages for a moment:
From the peak in June 2016, when the price was at 21.49, we have decreased by 73%.
Since the January 2018 peak, we've dropped 94%, and it's worth noting that the peak was a month later than Bitcoin at the time, which already showed that ETH was starting to get its way ... but then it fell like everything else!
After the November 2021 peak, the decline reached 81% ... which is in line with the average.
Would it be possible to drop by 80% before Bitcoin's fourth halving around 2024 - seems likely.
And I would also like to explain why he decided to mark price curves on a logarithmic scale.
Note that from the high of $ 21.49 to the high of $ 1594, we jumped 3 levels on a mesh of blue rainbow price curves. The next peaks did not break new curves (these peaks with peaks of over $ 4,000 in the next bull market). However, I assume that with the appropriate “market excitement” by increases, there may be a situation in which we will break new levels on the curve.
Thank you very much for reading the full description of the analysis. If it turned out to be helpful in any way, please leave (the racket) a paw up :)
