$MELINASDAQ:MELI una bestia, enorme. Hoy subió 3% mientras el resto de los ADR argentinos cerraron en baja (algunos se hicieron pedazos). Está en máximos históricos por lo que se hace un poco dificil definir hacia donde irá. En lo que podemos definir con extensión de Fibonacci, ya estaríamos llegando al 2 que se encuentra en 654. Esta puede ser una posible resistencia. Hacia abajo vemos varias cosas, apertura en límite superior del canal de Keltner, canal alcista formado a partir del 26/12/2018, rebote del MACD que indicaría una continuación de suba. Por otro lado, RSI se acerca a la zona de sobrecompra, si pasa los 70 deberíamos empezar a tener un poco de cautela teniendo en cuenta la resistencia de la extensión de Fibonacci que en combinación con el RSI podría generar un retroceso hacia la zona de los 610, soporte que veo clave por ser una línea de Fibonacci de 1,786
Argentina
ARGT: Trend is upMacri's counter offensive move, in response to Cristina Kirchner's presidential formula strategy was a brilliant one, picking Pichetto as his Vice-President for the upcoming October elections. Pichetto is a man from the Peronist party, but who is not afraid of bipartisan politics in Congress, and who wants to work for the President in Congress, and not force government shutdown. Many dislike this trait of his, but him being a strong defender of small and medium enterprises, and most likely helping Macri lead the country towards proper capitalism, with some luck, is what got investors bullish again.
The $USDARS pair dropped rapidly, and the 2-Week timeframe uptrend signal I had forecasted in it failed. The Dollar didn't hit 49-50 in time, despite the Central Banks pathetic actions in the last year, and Macri's political antics might have turned the trend in it for the next 16-19 weeks. $USDARS might sink towards 37 again, if things go really well.
If Cristina were to win, Alberto Fernandez is a man who might keep her extreme pseudo-socialist ways in check, or at least this is what investors seem to think, given the reaction of markets to the formula. Hopefully, whoever wins, stops the ridiculous spending, and insane taxing, which is choking anyone trying to build ANY kind of business here...since small and medium sized enterprises are the main sources of jobs in the country atm. This might help the currency do better, and reduce inflation. For this, government needs to reduce its size, which is not too likely to occur if Peronists win this time around, but also not extremely likely to occur if Macri is elected again, either.
My reccomendation is to not own too many Argentinian assets, overall, but I'm slightly optimistic going forward.
Best of luck to us all,
Ivan Labrie.
"Top and Bottom Analysis" GGAL by ThinkingAnts4H CHART EXPLANATION
- As in our Weekly / Daily Vision, price bounced from the Confluence Level and broke the Ascending Channel.
- It has potential to move down towards the 17,94 Support Zone.
- However, theres a Bullish Divergence wich could be anticipating a Pullback to the Broken Ascending Channel.
We will be waiting for a resolution before looking for sell setups.
Updates comming soon!
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
- Weekly
- Daily
USDARS: Might be about to trend up sharply...As everyone has been saying, $USDARS will likely get close to the $50 mark, a 2W timeframe Time@Mode signal kicked off, and it's already active for 2 bars, out of 10 that are forecasted as part of the uptrend. This rally has 3 possible targets which are laid out on chart, valid for as long as the time lasts, or as long as $USDARS trades above the 37 mark.
I wouldn't reccomend to hold ARS for long if you have income in pesos.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
NZDUSD EN CORTOTriangulo ascendente en diario. En 4h con ayuda de la noticia llego más rápido de lo que se esperaba a esa zona de trendline, trazando retroceso de fibonacci del punto mas alto bajista, veo que la zona del 61.8% coincide con ese soporte marcado por lo cual esperaría a que llegue a la linea y trendline diaria la cual por el momento no ha sido testeada desde el 3 de enero.
Esa zona coincide con el -27% . A lo cual parece ver muchas confluencias. Queda esperar.
Argentine Telecom deep discount breakout on falling wedgeTEO breaks out of deep falling wedge from half its value earlier in year.
* Paid a 17.45% dividend last year and known for double digit dividends
* Telecom 5G play for new subscribers in 2019, or watch until 2019 entry at higher price, likely near $30.
* Growing mid-cap telecom, cable, cellular provider
* Fell out of favor on negative earnings miss building infrastructure
* Revenue growth +35%, Revenue change +24%
* Currently only 20% large fund ownership, which will grow with 5G emergence
* Breaking out from bottom just above $15 and below $20 and going up.
Viewers come to own conclusions with charts and investing.
MERVAL The Tango is very close to changing its melodyMERVAL is struggling and the Tango is very close to changing its melody. Argentina faces complicated winds actually, a feared recession that would complicate Macri's plans and his country. I wish to be wrong, but it could be good for foreign investors to play with and buy around 22,000.
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USDARS: Fellow Argentinians, sadly the dollar rally continues...The target here is big, but it could go even higher depending on how it acts. I'd reccomend to divest positions in local equities and bonds, and get exposure to US equities and the dollar, or pairs like the dollar/yen.
After this next top, we could see a bigger correction in the dollar accross the board though, so I want to be ready to capture the reversal, in particular by going long gold once we have full confirmation, which may come by September.
Best of luck to us all,
Ivan Labrie.
USDARS: Local top spotted, sell your dollar bills...$USDARS should retrace from here, or at least stop rallying like crazy every week...
This will bring some relief in local equities, I've been entering some positions the last two days, in my local savings account.
For my fellow Argentinians: I'd reccomend to look into selling $USD if you own any as cash savings, and investing in either p2p lending, equities, or bonds, and/or gold/silver.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie
Time to finally see some action!No matter what the odds for the Merval Index might be, in approximately a couple of days we should see some drastic movements. Taking into account the momentum, it is likely that it will go up. At least, this is what we are all waiting and hoping for. Fingers crossed!!