Thanks to BTC, a couple of Cathie Wood funds are about to flash A month ago Morningstar identified the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) as one of the largest wealth destroyers in the fund industry, with the ETF losing $7.1 billion in investors' wealth over the past decade due to its strategy of using leverage to bet against the Nasdaq-100 (NDX).
Additionally, the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has shredded $4.2 billion in wealth over the same period, making it another significant underperformer within the ARK family of funds. Despite the poor performance, ARK Innovation has continued to attract investors, who pay a 0.75% annual fee, illustrating that even during favorable market conditions, there is no any guarantee of success in investing.
Ark Invest as well as lady Wood was all the rage in 2020 and 2021, when its concentrated bets on highly speculative, mostly unprofitable technology companies paid off in a big way thanks to low interest rates, monetary stimulus and a boom in risk appetite among retail investors.
The ARKK ETF destroyed $7.1 billion in wealth, while its healthcare-focused ARK Genomic ETF destroyed $4.2 billion in wealth, according to Morningstar.
Across all fund families that have destroyed wealth over the past decade, Ark Invest topped the list — and its losses with ARKK and ARKG were more than double the next firm on the list.
Despite the massive wealth destruction, ARK Invest as a business is doing just fine. The investment company still has more than $13 billion in assets across its suite of all ETFs, signaling that not all investors have abandoned Wood's investment strategy.
While the biggest value destroyers in the fund industry provide a valuable case study in how not to invest, and illustrate that there's no guarantee of success, even during a generally favorable market environment, let's take a look will recent spot BTC ETFs launch change the game or not.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC is snapping up shares of the firm’s just-launched spot-Bitcoin ETF as competition among the inaugural issuers escalates.
A consistent bid from its sister fund could help give ARKB a leg-up in a highly competitive environment for spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission allowed 10 such ETFs to launch on January 11, 2024, preventing any one of them from gaining first-mover advantage.
That has set up an unusually high-stakes horse race, given that all the funds hold the same underlying asset.
Funneling the firm’s own money into an ETF is one way to gain scale quickly — an important criteria for financial advisers and platforms, many of which have minimum-asset thresholds, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Who knows what is next.
But still it works so far, as ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) with solid 13.84% stake on Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN , as well as ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) with its massive 20% Double Powered 'Coinbase+BTC' cannon, both are on positive path in 2024.
Technical graphs for ARK Fintech Innovation ETF AMEX:ARKF (upper chart) and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF AMEX:ARKW (lower chart), thanks to recent gains in BTCUSD and Coinbase (COIN), indicates on potential Reversed Head-and-Shoulders price pattern development, being topped off with huge weekly EMA(200) breakthrough in both cases.
ARKF
ARK funds - Could we see the light at the end of tunnel ? Hello Traders and (and maybe Tech/ Value / Longterm Investors ?),
ARK funds took BIG hit last year and sell-offs continue. (Panic and uncertainty at the market, raising Inflation and Interest rates, ... War or Pandemy, what could be worse ? WW3 ? ).
So are the ARK funds Investable ? I believe so... but under some conditions.
1) Most stocks were simply overvalued and still not profitable. (Growth stocks investing in the future potential).
2) Most stocks are good picks and can be found also in funds of many other famous investors).
3) You need to believe there are some technologies which will shape future world same like do companies like APPLE, Facebook, Amazin or other giants today. Because many of todays giants are going to do bad decisions (or simply don´t pay attention) and lose their stake of market.
4) Investing in the ETF which is diversified into 30+ Stocks is some king of protection against stockpicking.Entire ARK strategy is based on statistics = some companies will be loosers, BUT some will WIN BIG.
To setup some good investing strategy we should find place whereRisk:Reward ratio is best.
- If you look at the chart of individual stocks in this ETF most of them are finding lower lows and creating simple / double RSI convergencies.
- P/E ratios could be still high (above 20), but check history of Walmart´s or Amazon´s P/E.
- Nearest support level is Pre-pandemic zone of 40-60 USD.
In my opinion, we are forming last wave (v) of C corrective wave. Using Fibonachi extension of Wave A, ost probable zone for GOOD buy opportunity is around 62.9 USD (1.414 Extension).
(= -16% from current level)
BEST opportunity will be if the price drops to 49-40 USD zone (Maybe some sharp wick to gather stop-losses).
(= - 30% from current level)
Risks:
- US Dollar currency index seems to form triangel on 1W Timeframe. if we reach to top line and turn around, it will mean positive outlook for speculative High growth companies and Crypto market.
- World War 3 (small chance, But in that case the stock market really doesn´t matter for few years);
- Very high inflation (than you really wanna be invested in something with huge growth).
Recommendation:
- DO YOUR HOMEWORK and check all the companies in the ARK fund which you would like to buy to be sure it rezonate with U. also check "Scottish Mortgage Investment TRUST" (Ticker:SMT) which I personally like. They came first with Tesla investment thesis and benefitted most. ;)
Be on the right side of change. Tuesday, Jan. 25 ARK sumitBe on the right side of change is a fancy title for an investment company that lost 23-25% of the value of their 4 main funds in the past 16 trading days!
No need to say that these funds had lost 17-34% of their values in 2021.
I think it is crucial to be on the right side of the change, otherwise...!
One of my favorite Youtubers is Ozzy man, he has a series called Destination F..!
It is a compilation of failures, he usually says: Someone is definitely ending up in destination F regarding their employment status over this.
(being on the wrong side of the change)
Market sentiment has changed a lot and those who are on the right side of the change are sitting on piles of cash or shorted the market..!
Each candle shows 1 year.
The Week Ahead: XBI, ARKF, ARKG, BITO, ARKK, KWEB, IWM/RUTEarnings:
TSLA (63/69). Announces on Wednesday after market close, so if you're looking to play the volatility contraction, look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's session or, if implied volatility afterglow persists, early Thursday after it has made its move. If NFLX earnings is any indication of whether TSLA will "behave," you may want to consider waiting until after the announcement to avoid a repeat of "the Netflix experience." As it is, the January 28th options are pricing in something bigly: +/- $82 or so, so 862 on the put side, 1026.
Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Rank >70%/30-Day >35%, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered:
Cathie Woods' funds continue to have a really bad hair day/week/month ... .
XBI (100/48)
ARKF (97/59)
ARKG (87/66)
BITO (82/85)
ARKK (82/62)
KWEB (74/58)
EWZ (51/40)
Pictured here is a bullish assumption BITO March 18th 17 short put, paying .60 at the mid price on buying power of 16.40. The broker is still requiring it to be cash-secured, so the ROC %-age is not all that sexy: 3.7% at max (25.0% annualized) as a function of buying power effect. Because of that, I would consider slapping on a cheap put to bring in the buying power effect, but the best you can currently do is to buy the 13, making it into a four-wide paying .38, and that amount isn't particularly compelling, particularly if you're going to be taking profit at 50% max. The ROC %-age is way better (9.5% at max), but I'd rather look at a setup where the long leg costs something like .05-.10, so I may stick a pin in that trade; lower strikes may populate at some point.
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds, Implied Volatility Rank Ordered:
QQQ (77/33)
IWM (77/35)
SPY (73/28)
DIA (72/26)
EFA (65/23)
In the retirement account, I'll basically continue to ladder out short put as long as IVR/IV remains elevated. This is the exact environment in which I like to make additions on the put side: weakness plus increased implied volatility. Naturally, one begets the other. I'll also be keeping an eye on net portfolio delta to see if additional short delta hedge is required to keep me from getting overly directional which can make things more uncomfortable in a protracted down turn. I point this out because what people primarily see in my feed is "short put, short put, short put" and not the short delta hedges put on that are just kind of running in the background. There is individual trade delta, but also portfolio-wide delta.
Apocalypse of ARK invest, a forcast that became a reality..!Jim Simons:
“Scientists and mathematicians are trained to dig below the surface of the chaotic, natural world to search for unexpected simplicity, structure, and even beauty.
On February 28th, 2021 (10 months ago) I published this article:
The Social Media Trading Bubble comes to its end..!
I have always said:
Only time could show the accuracy of analysis..!
I believe the ARK’s CEO and her team members did not buy the Sci-Fi stories the told people on their social media, but they tried their best to sell it to others, and they were very successful..!
Look at the performance of these stocks, most of them skyrocketed 10x, 20x or even more in less than 2-3 years.
-
CRSP , ROKU, SNAP, PINS, NNDM , WKHS , Tesla , and ...
Now as an example, I will explain CRSP and what ARK did with this stock.
There is no doubt CRISPER is one of the most important and disruptive medical innovations. Therefore, Jennifer Anne Doudna an American biochemist known for her pioneering work in CRISPR gene editing, awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry along with Emmanuelle Charpentier.
By a quick search on social media you will find ARK’s CEO talking about CRSP enthusiastically and the share price skyrocketed almost 20 times in the last 4 years. And if you see the ARK watcher, you will find out they almost emptied their portfolio from CRSP in the last 2 months and share price slipped from 220 to 125 since Jan 15th, 2021. Yet, I believe it could go down to 70 in the coming months!!!
The question is :
Is CRISPER not an innovative/ disruptive Genomic medical company any more? ( as a doctor and holder of M.D. degree, my answer to this question is: CRISPER is a disruptive Genomic medical company)
So the question could change to:
Everything ARK has talked about was not true? Or they don’t believe in the 3 trillion Genomic revolutions they are talking about anymore?
I believe ARK noticed a company with 719k revenue ( CRSP )in the past 4 quarters couldn’t have a 15.5 Billion market cap, and they suddenly decided to insert the needle into the bubble they created in the first place, buy selling their CRSP shares!
Last words, I have good news for ARK invest, Tesla chart pretty much looks like CRSP ..! So be ready for that bubble burst too!( Tesla is the biggest part of the pie in most of ARK’s ETFs)
Time will show us the reality of the people’s claims..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Omicron we didn’t like but let’s try to recoverThe latest covid variant has certainly thrown the market into panic and has caused several collapses including the recent transfer of value by this ETF.
In my previous analysis in November, my idea of increasing the price of ARKF was completely disregarded.
Despite everything it seems that institutional investors have not changed their tendency to reduce the SHORT positions that they had already started, the recent collapse seems to be due mostly to sales by professional investors.
Now a reversal of this wave of sales seems to have begun, so I expect a price rise again.
I’ll mediate the positions already in place, waiting for the ascent.
Shopify $SHOP nearing pivot pointThe e-commerce giant is been behaving very well since its first breakout from the $1,290 resistance. Now is working its way to make a new ATH with higher lows and respecting its $1,500 support. To confirm the buy zone between $1,650 and $1,730, the MACD is making a buy signal with a bullish crossover. Also the relative strength of NYSE:SHOP against AMEX:ARKF is really good, it needs to breakout from the peanant patern it formed to be even better. I'd like to add that the IBD RS rating is 83, that means that its performance is in the top 83% of all stocks over the past year.
So, there are two ways to play this. One would be just to wait for the breakout from the $1,650 resistance or, to buy 1/2 of the position today and add the rest when that breakout happens. The bad thing for the second approach is that the buying volume for today is not that great. So, I'll wait for the closing price to see if its really worth to be agressive.
Money Flow Matters..!Your first obligation as an investor is " Following the Money".
You need no skill to analyze this chart!
Just look at the Trading Value!
As soon as the average trading value dropped, the price followed it!
The most important question is: where is the next destination of all this money extracted from market in the past 3 months???
Will Tesla hold?...A weekly chart of TSLA will show us the longer term trend, which fate could be tested at the $550 level, which is coincidental with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement, a break below this level suggests the next target on the downside is $330 approximately.
There is a slight divergence with the RSI, when you take a look at the last bottom. (Bearish)
I will be keeping this on a close watch.
Apocalypse of ARK investEveryones know ark invest will not perform well unless tesla performs well..!
now their biggest ETF, ARKK performance becomes negative again in 2021..! and all their ETFs underperform in comparison to major indexes.
congratulation to their management team who manage the ETFs...
I warned everyone this bubble is going to burst, when the price was 143, no one listened to me..!
How is it possible?
Don't you believe it?
Check this:
be ready for this one!
Square $SQ is back!The price of NYSE:SQ is back above its 50 day MA and going for the breakout. I had this stock before the correction and got a really good profit, I think I can do it again. The thing I like the most is that is clearly a market leader.
I wanted to compare NYSE:SQ with its real peers, so, AMEX:ARKF is the perfect ETF to do it. The quotinet shows I good relative strength for Square.
The stock is rank #1 by IBD in its industry and has an IBD relative strength greater than 90 points. And better so, is #2 top holding of AMEX:ARKK . This are all bullish signs for me.
The Social Media Trading Bubble comes to its end..!While many people thinks when ARK invest touches anything it turns to GOLD, I believe another season has just begun for those who invested in ARK ETFs. In this season we will see everything will be burned into ashes!
First, let’s look at the numbers, and see the performance of ARK invest ETFs in the last 2 trading weeks! They are all sinking in Blood..!
PRINT: -23.16% in 9 trading days
ARKG: -21.69% in 11 trading days
ARKK: -21.06% in 8 trading days
ARKF: -18.59% in 5 trading days
ARKW: -18.41% in 8 trading days
ARKQ: -17.37% in 5 trading days
While people asking themselves which ARK’s ETF will perform better in 2021, now they should ask themselves which one will burn into ashes sooner???
Theme Investing
I believe the ARK’s CEO and her team members did not buy the Sci-Fi stories the told people on their social media, but they tried their best to sell it to others, and they were very successful..!
Look at the performance of these stocks, most of them skyrocketed 10x, 20x or even more in less than 2-3 years.
-
CRSP, ROKU, SNAP, PINS,NNDM, WKHS, Tesla, and ...
Now as an example, I will explain CRSP and what ARK did with this stock.
There is no doubt CRISPER is one of the most important and disruptive medical innovations. Therefore, Jennifer Anne Doudna an American biochemist known for her pioneering work in CRISPR gene editing, awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry along with Emmanuelle Charpentier.
By a quick search on social media you will find ARK’s CEO talking about CRSP enthusiastically and the share price skyrocketed almost 20 times in the last 4 years. And if you see the ARK watcher, you will find out they almost emptied their portfolio from CRSP in the last 2 months and share price slipped from 220 to 125 since Jan 15th, 2021. Yet, I believe it could go down to 70 in the coming months!!!
The question is :
Is CRISPER not an innovative/ disruptive Genomic medical company any more? ( as a doctor and holder of M.D. degree, my answer to this question is : CRISPER is a disruptive Genomic medical company)
So the question could change to:
Everything ARK has talked about was not true? Or they don’t believe in the 3 trillion Genomic revolution they are talking about any more?
I believe ARK noticed a company with 719k revenue (CRSP)in past 4 quarter couldn’t have 15.5 Billion market cap, and they suddenly decided to insert the needle into the bubble they created in the first place, buy selling their CRSP shares!
Last words, I have a good news for ARK invest, Tesla chart is pretty much looks like CRSP..! So be ready for that bubble burst too!(Tesla is biggest part of the pie in most of ARK’s ETFs)
Time will show us the reality of the people’s claims..!
Moshkelgosha
What about 3 trillion promised genomic revolution?While many people thinks when ARK invest touches anything it turns to GOLD , I believe another season has just begun for those who invested in ARK ETFs. In this season we will see everything will be burned into ashes!
First, let’s look at the numbers, and see the performance of ARK invest ETFs in the last 2 trading weeks! They are all sinking in Blood..!
PRINT: -23.16% in 9 trading days
ARKG: -21.69% in 11 trading days
ARKK: -21.06% in 8 trading days
ARKF: -18.59% in 5 trading days
ARKW: -18.41% in 8 trading days
ARKQ: -17.37% in 5 trading days
While people asking themselves which ARK’s ETF will perform better in 2021, now they should ask themselves which one will burn into ashes sooner???
Theme Investing
I believe the ARK’s CEO and her team members did not buy the Sci-Fi stories the told people on their social media, but they tried their best to sell it to others, and they were very successful..!
Look at the performance of these stocks, most of them skyrocketed 10x, 20x or even more in less than 2-3 years.
-
CRSP , ROKU, SNAP, PINS, NNDM , WKHS , Tesla , and ...
Now as an example, I will explain CRSP and what ARK did with this stock.
There is no doubt CRISPER is one of the most important and disruptive medical innovations. Therefore, Jennifer Anne Doudna an American biochemist known for her pioneering work in CRISPR gene editing, awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry along with Emmanuelle Charpentier.
By a quick search on social media you will find ARK’s CEO talking about CRSP enthusiastically and the share price skyrocketed almost 20 times in the last 4 years. And if you see the ARK watcher, you will find out they almost emptied their portfolio from CRSP in the last 2 months and share price slipped from 220 to 125 since Jan 15th, 2021. Yet, I believe it could go down to 70 in the coming months!!!
The question is :
Is CRISPER not an innovative/ disruptive Genomic medical company any more? ( as a doctor and holder of M.D. degree, my answer to this question is : CRISPER is a disruptive Genomic medical company)
So the question could change to:
Everything ARK has talked about was not true? Or they don’t believe in the 3 trillion Genomic revolution they are talking about any more?
I believe ARK noticed a company with 719k revenue ( CRSP )in past 4 quarter couldn’t have 15.5 Billion market cap, and they suddenly decided to insert the needle into the bubble they created in the first place, buy selling their CRSP shares!
Last words, I have a good news for ARK invest, Tesla chart is pretty much looks like CRSP ..! So be ready for that bubble burst too!( Tesla is biggest part of the pie in most of ARK’s ETFs)
Time will show us the reality of the people’s claims..!
Moshkelgosha