ARKK
#AR/USDT#AR
The price is moving in a descending channel on the 4-hour frame and is holding it tightly and is about to break out to the upside
We have a bounce from the lower limit of the channel at 17.70
We have a bearish trend for the RSI that is about to break out, which supports the upside
We have a trend to stabilize above the 100 moving average
Entry price 18.40
First target 20.50
Second target 22.22
Third target 24.95
Opening (IRA): ARKK October 18th 36/43/43/50 Iron Fly... for a 3.68 credit.
Comments: >35% IV. Doing a smidge of nondirectional here in ARKK, which is toward the top of my ETF board for 30-day IV behind BITO, TQQQ, and SMH (which I already have positions in). Structuring this as a risk one to make one, which is what I like to see out of these.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 3.32
Max Profit: 3.68
ROC at Max: 110.84%
25% Max: .92
ROC at 25% Max: 27.71%
Will look to take profit at 25% max. These generally aren't managed intraexpiry; they work or they don't ... .
🔀 Bang Bang. Zoom Hit The Ground. Bang Bang. Bears Shot It DownZoom company's video-conferencing service became so ubiquitous during the Covid-19 pandemic that its corporate name became a verb describing the act of firing up a video chat to connect with coworkers online.
Zoom shares VIE:ZOOM rose seven-fold in 2020 as sales surged after millions of workers were stuck at home because of COVID-19 restrictions. By 2021, though, revenue growth slowed, and the stock plunged. The company has shed at least $100 billion in market value since then.
Meanwhile over the past two years, the stock has stagnated because Zoom's video-conferencing service is needed less as businesses continue pushing staff back to the office.
Zoom, one of the main enablers and beneficiaries of remote work, in August 2023 has asked its employees to head back to the office. The company announced that employees living within 50 miles of a Zoom office must work there at least two days a week.
"We believe that a structured hybrid approach – meaning employees that live near an office need to be onsite two days a week to interact with their teams – is most effective for Zoom," a spokesperson said in a statement. "As a company, we are in a better position to use our own technologies, continue to innovate, and support our global customers."
As pandemic Covid-19 is over, many other companies have announced return-to-office mandates, but Zoom's change of heart is surprising given the role its technology plays in remote work. The company's video-conferencing service became so ubiquitous during the pandemic that its corporate name became a verb describing the act of firing up a video chat to connect with coworkers online.
People are back to Travelling. The annual graph for NYSE:RPM , Revenue Passenger Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights.
Meanwhile, there're some important things to say.
Warren Buffett's 99-year-old business partner, Charlie Munger, was surprisingly embraced Zoom during the pandemic. Eric Yuan, the founder and CEO of the video-conferencing platform, celebrated the veteran investor's endorsement of his product on an earnings in 2021.
"I have fallen in love with Zoom," Munger, the vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, said in a CNBC interview filmed at Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in May, 2021.
"Zoom is here to stay. It just adds so much convenience."
• Munger added that he struck a deal in Australia using the communications tool. He trumpeted its prospects at Daily Journal's annual meeting in February, 2021 as well.
• When the pandemic is over, I don't think we're going back to just the way things were," the newspaper publisher's chairman said.
• We're going to do a lot less travel and a lot more Zooming.
Charlie loves Zoom and uses it frequently for business and to keep in touch with his family, as it's difficult for him to travel.
His business advice was to build a better product or offer a better solution, that it's all about competition, and that successful people are those with the acumen to understand life better than everyone else. He said it's up to you to work harder and better than the next person.
Charlie also said investments are better than money in the bank, and it's important to go to the office to work in person.
The main graph says, Zoom equities just hit the major all history ground support near $59 per share.
Market 101:From the Drama King VIX to the Steady Eddie UtilitiesVolatility Index (VIX) - The Drama King
Let’s kick things off with the Volatility Index, aka the market’s drama king. It’s like that one friend who always makes a big deal out of nothing—spiking dramatically whenever the market so much as sneezes. Recently, it shot up faster than a caffeine-fueled trader on Monday morning, but now it’s calming down a bit, hovering around 20.73. Keep an eye on this guy—he’s always a sign of market anxiety like I said, the the fear gauge. If he starts climbing again, it might be time to batten down the hatches.
Utilities Sector (XLU) - The Steady Eddie
Moving on to the Utilities sector, which is the market’s equivalent of your reliable, always-on-time friend. XLU has been climbing steadily, but just like every other reliable person, it needs a break sometimes. It’s currently chilling around 76.20, looking like it’s taking a well-deserved breather. Nothing too exciting here, but that’s exactly what you want from Utilities—slow and steady wins the race.
ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) - The Wild Child
Now, let’s talk about ARKK—Cathie Wood’s wild child. This chart is like a rollercoaster at an amusement park: up, down, up, down, and sometimes you’re not sure if you should scream or cheer. After some wild moves, ARKK is sitting around 42.98, but don’t be surprised if it decides to take another loop-de-loop soon. Just remember to strap in and hold on tight.
Technology Sector (XLK) - The Overachiever
Next up, the Technology sector, which has been the market’s overachiever for quite some time. XLK had been climbing like it’s trying to win the market’s gold star, but recently it’s hit a bit of a speed bump, pulling back to 210.28. No worries though—this sector is like that student who’s always doing extra credit. It’ll likely bounce back in no time, probably while giving the rest of the market a lesson in resilience.
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) - The Big Spender
Finally, we’ve got the Consumer Discretionary sector, which is the market’s big spender. XLY has been on a shopping spree, but it looks like it might be hitting the credit limit soon. The chart shows some clear support around 184.61, but if it breaks below this, we might see some belt-tightening ahead. Keep an eye on it—everyone loves a spender until the bill comes due.
Summary: From the dramatic spikes of the VIX to the steady climb of Utilities, each of these charts has its own personality. Whether you’re dealing with the rollercoaster that is ARKK or the disciplined overachiever in Technology, there’s always something to learn from the market’s diverse cast of characters. Stay sharp, keep your sense of humour and energy, and remember: in the markets, as in life, it’s all about balance.
Opening (IRA): ARKK Sept 20th 38 Covered Call... for a 36.93 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV (77.6/43.3). Selling the -75 call against long stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with the built-in defense of the short call.
Metrics:
Break Even/Buying Power Effect: 36.93
Max Profit: 1.07 ($107)
ROC at Max: 2.90%
50% Max: .54
ROC at 50% Max: 1.45%
Innovation, Robots, Tech, Applied Tech Will SkyrocketI thought I would share some of my research for everyone to review.
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Now, I'm sharing with you my belief that ignored, undervalued, and overlooked stocks/sectors are about to explode - and there are hundreds of symbols available for you to consider related to this move.
One of the most significant moves in 2025 and beyond will be the resurgence of innovation, robotics, technology, and applied functions related to the current/past technology boom. This is the 1990s (again) - leading to the second growth phase in new applications related to improved AI/tech capabilities.
You can profit from it if you take steps to prepare for the next 24+ months right now. All you have to do is watch this video, learn why I believe these will be some of the biggest movers over the next 24+ months, and then make your own decisions about what to trade.
Follow my research. My goal is to make you a better trader.
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#AR/USDT#AR
The price is moving in a bearish channel on a 4-hour frame and is holding it strongly and is about to break it upward
We have a bounce from the green support area at 23.00
We have a tendency to stabilize above the Moving Average 100
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that is about to break higher and supports the rise
Entry price is 24.00
The first goal is 31.11
The second goal is 35.77
The third goal is 41.30
Opening (IRA): ARKK July 19th 41 Monied Covered Call... for a 39.64 debit.
Comments: After taking off my 44 monied for a small profit, re-upping with a setup in the same expiry, but with a better break even. Selling the -75 call against a one lot of stock to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put, but with built-in short call defense.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 39.64
Max Profit: 1.36
ROC at Max: 3.43%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.72%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max.
Opening (IRA): ARKK May 17th 44 Monied Covered Call... for a 43.00 debit.
Comments: High IVR/IV at 52.7/38.7.
Going monied here, buying a Johnny one lot and selling the -75 delta call against to emulate the delta metrics of a 25 delta short put to take advantage of elevated IV on the call side and to have built-in position defense via the short call. This is slightly shorter duration than I like to go (39 DTE), but I also don't have a ton on here, so scrounging around for decent IV underlyings. Cathie also doesn't pay divvies but once a year in December, so there's no point in hanging around in the stock for any period of time.
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max on the whole shebang (stock + short call) and/or roll out the short call if it hits 50% max to reduce cost basis further.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis In Stock/Break Even: 43.00/share
Max Profit: 1.00
ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 2.33%
ROC at 50% Max: 1.16%
As previously noted in my other monied covered call posts, this only makes sense in a cash secured environment where you don't get BP relief going short put. On margin, short put will be the most BP efficient.
#ARK/USDT#ARK
The price is moving in a bearish channel on a 4-hour frame and is adhering to it well. The price has rebounded from the green zone and is expected to retest it at $0.650.
We have a tendency to stabilize above the Moving Average 100
We have a downtrend on the RSI indicator that was broken to support the rise
Entry price is 0.750
The first goal is 0.880
Second goal 1.00
Third goal 1.14
ARKK Elliot Wave ABC CorrectionARKK started its rally in November 2023 and reached $54.52 in December 2023. Since this date, according to Elliot Wave Analysis, it may be making an ABC correction. ARKK, which made the A wave by falling to $ 44.63, then rallied to $52.06 with the B corrective wave.
As long as ARKK stays below $52.06, ARKK may be making wave C. At the end of this movement, it may fall between $40.35 and $42.59.
ARKK Is this the right time to buy 'Innovation'?Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK) hit today its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the November 13 2023 bullish break-out. This puts the price in the middle of the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the December 28 2022 bottom.
As long as the price action closes the 1D candles above the 1D MA200, we expect an instant rebound. If it breaks above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), then our target will be 66.00 (+47.67%, which is the shortest rally it has had within the Channel Up.
A closing below the 1D MA200 though should go for at least a -23.34% decline from the top, which will be our buy entry for the long-term, but our Target will be modified to 61.50.
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Timing the market. IWMWhat we know? Oil is likely bullish in 2nd Half (24'). BTC leads the small caps. TNX usually works as a head wind (and has took a pause). Rate cuts are very bullish for small caps and financials benefit in this environment?
technically; the 20dma works as a driver. 50dma and 200dma just gives you context. You can add MACD to confirm things.
Im speculating that small caps breaks out in mid April.
U can fact check using IWM/SPX.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - tesla #3Good evening and i hope you are well.
tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish.
Last week i wrote the following:
"bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not rocket science so far."
I still did not adjust my wave thesis since 2024-02-11. I added a sub w5 for the bigger w3 to make it clearer what i expect the next weeks.
bull case: Do or die here at 170. The bear channel has to hold or we will flush down to around 150. If bulls manage to hold 170, we could probably see sideways movement to the upper bear channel, where i expect stronger selling again. Bulls can probably only stall the market until next earnings 2024-04-17 and pray for a elon miracle.
bear case: Nothing bullish about this stock at all. Bears are in full control and selling everything. If they manage to break below the bear channel, the long covering will accelerate it to 150 but probably not much further before earnings. If earnings are as bad as i expect, the remaining die hard bulls will give up. Except for Cathy. This stock and her fund will go down in 2024.
short term: below the bear trend line is hell for bulls - if we bounce here, probably sideways till earnings between 167 - 180
medium-long term: down - what would change that? trading above 270 --unchanged outlook
Thanks to BTC, a couple of Cathie Wood funds are about to flash A month ago Morningstar identified the ARK Innovation Fund (ARKK) as one of the largest wealth destroyers in the fund industry, with the ETF losing $7.1 billion in investors' wealth over the past decade due to its strategy of using leverage to bet against the Nasdaq-100 (NDX).
Additionally, the ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (ARKG) has shredded $4.2 billion in wealth over the same period, making it another significant underperformer within the ARK family of funds. Despite the poor performance, ARK Innovation has continued to attract investors, who pay a 0.75% annual fee, illustrating that even during favorable market conditions, there is no any guarantee of success in investing.
Ark Invest as well as lady Wood was all the rage in 2020 and 2021, when its concentrated bets on highly speculative, mostly unprofitable technology companies paid off in a big way thanks to low interest rates, monetary stimulus and a boom in risk appetite among retail investors.
The ARKK ETF destroyed $7.1 billion in wealth, while its healthcare-focused ARK Genomic ETF destroyed $4.2 billion in wealth, according to Morningstar.
Across all fund families that have destroyed wealth over the past decade, Ark Invest topped the list — and its losses with ARKK and ARKG were more than double the next firm on the list.
Despite the massive wealth destruction, ARK Invest as a business is doing just fine. The investment company still has more than $13 billion in assets across its suite of all ETFs, signaling that not all investors have abandoned Wood's investment strategy.
While the biggest value destroyers in the fund industry provide a valuable case study in how not to invest, and illustrate that there's no guarantee of success, even during a generally favorable market environment, let's take a look will recent spot BTC ETFs launch change the game or not.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Investment Management LLC is snapping up shares of the firm’s just-launched spot-Bitcoin ETF as competition among the inaugural issuers escalates.
A consistent bid from its sister fund could help give ARKB a leg-up in a highly competitive environment for spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission allowed 10 such ETFs to launch on January 11, 2024, preventing any one of them from gaining first-mover advantage.
That has set up an unusually high-stakes horse race, given that all the funds hold the same underlying asset.
Funneling the firm’s own money into an ETF is one way to gain scale quickly — an important criteria for financial advisers and platforms, many of which have minimum-asset thresholds, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Who knows what is next.
But still it works so far, as ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) with solid 13.84% stake on Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN , as well as ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) with its massive 20% Double Powered 'Coinbase+BTC' cannon, both are on positive path in 2024.
Technical graphs for ARK Fintech Innovation ETF AMEX:ARKF (upper chart) and ARK Next Generation Internet ETF AMEX:ARKW (lower chart), thanks to recent gains in BTCUSD and Coinbase (COIN), indicates on potential Reversed Head-and-Shoulders price pattern development, being topped off with huge weekly EMA(200) breakthrough in both cases.
Ark / ArkusdtGood Luck >>
• Warning •
Any deal I share does not mean that I am forcing you to enter into it, you enter in with your full risk, because I'll not gain any profits with you in the end.
The risk management of the position must comply with the stop loss.
(I am not sharing financial or investment advice, you should do your own research for your money.)
ARKB Picture Becoming ClearerThe farther we get from the launch of the BTC ETF, the clearer the picture becomes. We had a bit of euphoria and then a typical sell the news event. ARKB is now consolidating between $42 and $44. Although we don't have too many data points yet, on the 65min chart it's now back above and surfing the 20 and 50 EMAs. With the Bitcoin halving just a few months out, this will be interesting to watch.