ARRK ETF Underwater & Under PressureIn this update we review the recent price action in Cathie Woods banner ETF and identify a couple of potential high probability trade location and potential price objective to play for.
ARKK
$56 price target. Save some Cash, Start Nibbling from lower 60s. But Best Time to enter would be Jul 22, But more importantly Dollar Cost Averaging. ARK funds are a long term play. It was never meant to Rocket Up the way it did during Covid 2020. Now after its back to earth, look for 5-7 years steady growth.
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 82.22C/104.22P to March 18th... 81.22C/103.22P for a 1.25 credit.
Comments: Rolling this out a touch early due to lack of extrinsic in the short put, which ostensibly increases assignment risk. I improved the short put by a strike, but kept the inversion the same -- a 22 wide for which I've collected 19.50 (See Post Below) plus 1.25 or 20.75, with my resulting cost basis in any stock I might be assigned via the short put 103.22 - 20.75 or 82.47 relative to where it closed today at 75.87. I prefer working these inversions to a point where either I can scratch them out or where taking assignment would be at "something close" (a relative term) to where the stock is currently trading. That way I'm not starting out working a covered call way under water such that selling calls against at or above my cost basis wouldn't be productive.
Naturally, there's a point where you ask yourself whether you've mitigated enough loss such that you can comfortably take the hit, free up the buying power for something more productive and then move on.
Arkk Elliott Wave Analysis$ARKK topped out earlier than everything else it seems.
it is in a clear bear channel after back-testing the bull channel \ failing.
my downside target for $ARKK is at $71 , before resumption to the upside.
it seems everything is going to be moving down until mid September, after which we will look for bullish setups once again.
Trade safe peoples, the trend is your friend 💸
A comparison between ARKK and NASDAQ 100 in 3 diffrent window!Part one: April 2020 to February 2021: ARKK outperform NASDAQ 100: While ARKK gained 289%, NASDAQ 100 gained 84% in the same time frame!
Part two: Feb 2021 to Jan 2022: While ARKK has lost more than 51% Nasdaq 100 gained +9.7%
Part three: March 2020 to Jan 2022: ARKK gained 102% while NASDAQ 100 outperform with a 116% gain in the same time frame!
Part 4: ARKK since inception: Since Oct2014 ARKK gained +273%, in the same time frame NASDAQ gained 264%!
Conclusion: ARKK outperforms NASDAQ by 9% in 8 years..!
Although social media tries to depict a Legendary portfolio manager, Numbers show the ARK team is not what you think they are..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
$ARKK Lord Says Bounce Cometh ? $ARKK is clearly in a downtrend, however I think we get a bounce in the short term before further downside.
RSI approaching oversold and volume appears to be showing seller's exhaustion.
Plan is to play the bounce going long ST calls, take profits around 91 zone then go short again...
Note, not much support below, and ST long idea is invalidated on a break below $75
The most significant decline in ARKK's historyToday we will take a look at ARKK. The main element we have to comment on is the current decline, the biggest in the ETF history.
The current drawdown is at 51%, and we have three other situations in the past where we observed declines of 30% or more.
Here are some key ideas you can use to increase the odds of engaging on a successful setup on the ETF, assuming that eventually, we will have a new bull run.
* AVOID trading below the descending trendline . A trendline is telling you something "above assume X, below assume Y" in this case, the price is clearly below the descending trendline. Therefore we should avoid any type of swing setup mainly because there are no signs that the current bearish trend has finished. If we have to take a really bad scenario for the ETF based on the current technical elements, we can observe a -60% decline with a major bearish target on the highs of 2020.
* Study the 3 previous scenarios . IF you want to catch the next massive movement of the ETF, then you need to study how the transition happened in the past, where the price was on a severe drawdown, and then we saw new impulses. So, if you want to understand what's going on, start studying the previous 3 scenarios and look for patterns.
My current view is that assuming the trending characteristic this asset has, I'm more than interested in developing swing setups here. However, at the moment, I'm WAITING; my two filters are:
1) The price has reached the major bearish target at 62-61 (start thinking in bullish opportunities)
2) The price is getting close to breaking the descending trendline (start thinking in bullish opportunities)
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
The Week Ahead: NFLX, ARKF/ARKG/ARKK, XBI, KWEB, URA, IWM, QQQI haven't done one of these in quite some time, but thought I'd do one over this long holiday weekend.
Earnings:
I looked at a number of these for next week (there are quite a few) and have culled things down to the most liquid options underlyings, ideally with implied volatility rank >70% and 30-day greater than 50%. Only NFLX really fits that bill, even though it's a smidge shy of a 50% 30-day. For instance, I did look at CTXS (87/46), but when I dug into the options table, I wasn't fantastically excited about setting up a short strangle with only 2.5 to 5-wides where I'd want to set up my tent on both the put and call sides.
NFLX (76.9% rank/44.8% 30-day) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of that session if you're looking to play the announcement for a volatility contraction. Pictured here is a February 18th 450/610 short strangle with the legs camped out at the 13 delta. Paying 9.20 at the mid as of Friday's close on buying power of 52.59 (on margin), it has a 17.5% ROC at max, 8.7% ROC at 50% max. I like to go wider with earnings announcement volatility contraction plays since these do one of two things: (1) come in immediately; or (2) give you headaches for several cycles if the move has been overly large and you have to defend the setup to scratch in a contracted volatility environment.
If you're more of a defined risk bent, throw on some wings: the February 18th 440/450/610/620 iron condor is paying 1.90 on buying power effect of 8.10, 23.5% ROC at max, 11.7% ROC at 50% max.
Naturally, these are just preliminary pricing and strikes. You'll want to adjust strikes as necessary, since the underlying is likely to move somewhat running into earnings.
Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Implied Volatility Rank >50% and 30-Day >35% and Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank:
ARKF (84/52) (Cathie Woods' Fintech Innovation)
XBI (83/43) (Biotech)
ARKG (79/59) (Cathie Woods' Genomic Revolution)
KWEB (60/51) (China Internet)
ARKK (59/44) (Cathie Woods' Innovation)
URA (41/59) (Uranium)
A lot of Cathie Woods' stuff in there ... . I like to reserve these for the monthlies, since the weeklies aren't all that liquid in some of these. Unfortunately, the February 18th monthly is a little short in duration for my tastes (33 days until expiry) and March a bit long, so will probably hand sit on deploying buying power in this area until the March monthly's duration shortens -- it's currently 61 days, and I like to keep things +/- a week or so of 45 days.
One underlying that doesn't really have a 52-week valid implied volatility rank is BITO (1/68), since it hasn't been around for 52 weeks yet. However, that "1" indicates that its implied is low within the range its established since inception, and I'd naturally prefer it to be higher even though its 30-day outranks all of 30-days I've got in my little list, so I'm keeping an eye on it, having just exited a BITO short strangle on Friday.
Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank:
XLK (46/27)
QQQ (43/25)
EFA (35/17)
IWM (36/26)
DIA (24/18)
SPY (23/19)
I've moved XLK from my exchange-traded fund grid to my broad market grid, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.87 90-day) and an even closer correlation with QQQ. XLK is about half the size of QQQ, so if you like to layer on, it's a little more nimble for that purpose. I've been selling premium in small caps (IWM) in the weeklies to bide my time while monthly setups come in or have to be managed, but may consider sticking some of my pickle into QQQ next week given the fact that its rank implies that it's more "expanded" (if that makes any sense). I'd probably use the March 4th expiry, where the QQQ 16-delta 342/408 is paying 5.69 on buying power of 48.03, 11.8% ROC at max, 5.9% at 50% max. Naturally, the market may look entirely different from an implied volatility standpoint coming off a long holiday weekend, so I always have a second look at whether doing that is worthwhile once the market opens.
$ARKK Long Term Idea$ARKK has had a large selloff after making a blow off top past the 4.236 fib last year, currently down over 50% from the highs. I believe the bottom is in around the 0.618 fib here in the $77-80 range and $ARKK can start a recovery with targets of new ATH $200 minimum. Starting a long term position here in $ARKK at $80.
Buy @ $80.00 Price Target @ $200.00
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 89.22 Short Call to 82.22... for a 2.51 credit.
Comments: More defense as this underlying continues to implode. Total credits collected of 16.99 (See Post Below) plus the 2.51 here equals 19.50. The resulting inversion is, unfortunately, 22 strikes wide -- 2.50 greater than the total of credits I've collected. This means that I won't be able to scratch it out during this cycle regardless of what happens with price, but will have to roll out for duration if I want to attempt to do that until I've collected more credits than the width of the inversion. Alternatively, I can consider taking the loss and moving on, but the best case loss scenario at the moment is a 2.50 loss (assuming price moves back between the strikes).
Palantir long-term potenitalPalantir is in down trend right now
Green boxes - buy zones and potential starting point of a new wave of uptrend movement
Nasdaq Index - Bull or bear market more likely?I got a bit of criticism over not being clear enough in my previous chart. So i have created specifically a Nasdaq index chart which will show my thinking more clearly.
The Nasdaq index back at the start of 2000 was the bull market to end bull markets. The innovation of using the internet was a technological revolution and no one saw an end to the bull market...until it ended.
The end coincided with a break of medium term trendline as the internet startups folded one by one. From that point onwards the Nasdaq entered a brear market and didn't recover the old highs for another 15 years.
We're in a similiar position today, with the fed about to raise rates to control inflation, no one appears to think the impossible is possible.
It is.
If we break this medium term trendline, which appears to be very close to breaking (2 weekly closes below the line would confirm a break), we would expect a bear market to follow. This could take decades to recover from.
What goes up, must also come down (at least a bit).
The fact that the nasdaq market cap is more than half comprised of only 6 companies, suggests that it is just as sensitive to a large correction today. Albeit the reasons for a bear market will be very different.
Easy money has distorted the markets and funds like Arkk that think 40% annualised returns are possible with these stocks may be signs that we are at frenzy level of bullishness (just like in 2000).
I do not expect the bear market to be as bad as the beginning of the millenium, however i do think it will be signficiant and it could be coming sooner than expected, with fed tightening expected to quicken.
$ARKK AnalysisAs mentioned above in last weeks post I was expecting a reversal off of $93, and while the bounce did happen out of my projected buy zone, it was met with relentless selling pressure once reaching the $98 level. Price is still in an overall downtrend, but as we approach the key $80 level I am certainly watching for a bounce out of the demand zone depicted in the chart. If $80 is lost, there is no telling where the selling may end, thus it is the only support level I have noted for this week. $ARKK needs to reclaim $90 for any bullish action to ensue.
S&P500 is an Indicator of ARKK !!!Warren buffet said no one can beat Index Fund, we saw rise and fall of ARKK mostly boost with pandemic free money, and falling to meet SP500 chart.
If ARKK will drop equal to SP500 or below means old man was right in his words with huge experience and wisdom.
$ARKK - Weekly TF analysis-Primary W4 target zone (38.2 - 50)
-Nearing channel bottom
-Reached 1st fib target for Y leg of W4 (-23.6)
-Confluent support of 38.2 fib and channel bottom
-Weekly RSI at march 2020 covid lows
-Downside risk defined at 72.50
From the looks of it, we might be nearing a bottom on growth stocks. Keep in mind this is a weekly chart so if we do continue down, it could drag out for another few weeks. However, downside risk is defined at the 50% fib, at 72.50.
I would start building a position from here and continue building as long as ARKK is above 72.5. ARK's time horizons are 5 years, and market jitters will last 5 months, maybe a year if we're really fucked.
Ask yourself, did Cathie Wood and her team suddenly become stupid over night, or does the market work in cycles?
WHEN YOU BAYBY TESLA FAILS..!Tesla is present in almost all ARK's EETs, when it fails the whole system fails!!!
I believe miss Woods is in big trouble, and soon she has to find a substitution for tesla , otherwise, all her fame will vanish like a rockstar with a single hot albume!
Apocalypse of ARK invest, a forcast that became a reality..!Jim Simons:
“Scientists and mathematicians are trained to dig below the surface of the chaotic, natural world to search for unexpected simplicity, structure, and even beauty.
On February 28th, 2021 (10 months ago) I published this article:
The Social Media Trading Bubble comes to its end..!
I have always said:
Only time could show the accuracy of analysis..!
I believe the ARK’s CEO and her team members did not buy the Sci-Fi stories the told people on their social media, but they tried their best to sell it to others, and they were very successful..!
Look at the performance of these stocks, most of them skyrocketed 10x, 20x or even more in less than 2-3 years.
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CRSP , ROKU, SNAP, PINS, NNDM , WKHS , Tesla , and ...
Now as an example, I will explain CRSP and what ARK did with this stock.
There is no doubt CRISPER is one of the most important and disruptive medical innovations. Therefore, Jennifer Anne Doudna an American biochemist known for her pioneering work in CRISPR gene editing, awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry along with Emmanuelle Charpentier.
By a quick search on social media you will find ARK’s CEO talking about CRSP enthusiastically and the share price skyrocketed almost 20 times in the last 4 years. And if you see the ARK watcher, you will find out they almost emptied their portfolio from CRSP in the last 2 months and share price slipped from 220 to 125 since Jan 15th, 2021. Yet, I believe it could go down to 70 in the coming months!!!
The question is :
Is CRISPER not an innovative/ disruptive Genomic medical company any more? ( as a doctor and holder of M.D. degree, my answer to this question is: CRISPER is a disruptive Genomic medical company)
So the question could change to:
Everything ARK has talked about was not true? Or they don’t believe in the 3 trillion Genomic revolutions they are talking about anymore?
I believe ARK noticed a company with 719k revenue ( CRSP )in the past 4 quarters couldn’t have a 15.5 Billion market cap, and they suddenly decided to insert the needle into the bubble they created in the first place, buy selling their CRSP shares!
Last words, I have good news for ARK invest, Tesla chart pretty much looks like CRSP ..! So be ready for that bubble burst too!( Tesla is the biggest part of the pie in most of ARK’s ETFs)
Time will show us the reality of the people’s claims..!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 94.22 Short Call to 89.22... for a 1.74 credit.
Comments: Yowsa. This continues to implode, so continuing to manage it defensively ... . As of my last roll, I'd collected 15.25 in credits. (See Post Below). With this roll, I've collected a total of 16.99 for what is now an inverted 15-wide: the 89.22C/104.22P with a downside break even of 104.22 - 16.99 or 87.23 relative to today's closing price of 85.58, so I've still got some work to do to get my cost basis at or below where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, I need the markets to do some of the work for me by giving me a bounce.
Starting to buy ARKK here.Not a big stock guy but shifting capitol from crypto to diversify into some investments that actually represent tangible companies that make things lol. Strategy is to buy stocks/ETF's at standard classical pattern supports that are down 30-60% and let it ride. I am betting that 8 out of 10 stocks I am about to punt will not go to zero and that 40-60% discounts is a good deal. Falling wedge here and a nice dogi daily candle forming. Not advise archiving thoughts.
ARKK forecast in the next 1-2 months..!10 months ago when I published my views about ARKK, I received so many bad comments..!
I did not change my mind and never published a Buy analysis on ARKK, Why?
Because I studied ARK invest at least for one year and I read the CEO background and her track record from the beginning!
So many people who believe in ARK invest just looking at the last 5 years, but CEO has a fascinating story in 2008..!
"Worst Performance" in 2008 and she did repeat it in 2021: -24% (40% from all-time high) in a year all indexes were positive between 13.7% to 27%..!
Now the question is what is her big plan for 2022???
This year will be much more difficult..!
I think her position as CEO of ARK invest will be challenged sooner or later in 2022..!
She was wrong about Energy and Financial sectors and paid the price for that..!
I think ARKK will go down to 70 in the first quarter of 2022..!
Updated target for ARKKYou may not believe it but I saw this coming almost 5-6 weeks ago! People trashed me and praised Cathie Wood.
Still don’t believe check the related post to understand the difference between analysis and speculation..!
Short $ARKK CMP $93.86Short $ARKK CMP $93.86. $ARKK failed to maintain the momentum. Volume is drying. Did not make higher high. Expect it to fall to $85 area or further down. Holding near very important level of support.
ARKK - Hydrophones Picking Up NoiseWood's Hole has been busy with the creaking sounds from the Deep Blue.
Small Caps within the Covenant have been leaking badly, some now down 70&.
Full bubble engaged.
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Innovation Spec, Meta, and Cathy all wondering why, of course, it will be another
dip buy for Future Value.
We disagree with her Thesis and believe recalibration of her Grift is needed.
A carnie is a carnie.
The Big Top fire is spreading, Noah is loading the critters, while the mid 60s
appear to be too much of an angle for the ARKK sub to withstand.
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100% CASH on Close.
