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ARKK

The most significant decline in ARKK's historyToday we will take a look at ARKK. The main element we have to comment on is the current decline, the biggest in the ETF history. The current drawdown is at 51%, and we have three other situations in the past where we observed declines of 30% or more. Here are some key ideas you can use to increase the odds of engaging on a successful setup on the ETF, assuming that eventually, we will have a new bull run. * AVOID trading below the descending trendline . A trendline is telling you something "above assume X, below assume Y" in this case, the price is clearly below the descending trendline. Therefore we should avoid any type of swing setup mainly because there are no signs that the current bearish trend has finished. If we have to take a really bad scenario for the ETF based on the current technical elements, we can observe a -60% decline with a major bearish target on the highs of 2020. * Study the 3 previous scenarios . IF you want to catch the next massive movement of the ETF, then you need to study how the transition happened in the past, where the price was on a severe drawdown, and then we saw new impulses. So, if you want to understand what's going on, start studying the previous 3 scenarios and look for patterns. My current view is that assuming the trending characteristic this asset has, I'm more than interested in developing swing setups here. However, at the moment, I'm WAITING; my two filters are: 1) The price has reached the major bearish target at 62-61 (start thinking in bullish opportunities) 2) The price is getting close to breaking the descending trendline (start thinking in bullish opportunities) Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view in the comments.
AMEX:ARKK
by ThinkingAntsOk
51
The Week Ahead: NFLX, ARKF/ARKG/ARKK, XBI, KWEB, URA, IWM, QQQI haven't done one of these in quite some time, but thought I'd do one over this long holiday weekend. Earnings: I looked at a number of these for next week (there are quite a few) and have culled things down to the most liquid options underlyings, ideally with implied volatility rank >70% and 30-day greater than 50%. Only NFLX really fits that bill, even though it's a smidge shy of a 50% 30-day. For instance, I did look at CTXS (87/46), but when I dug into the options table, I wasn't fantastically excited about setting up a short strangle with only 2.5 to 5-wides where I'd want to set up my tent on both the put and call sides. NFLX (76.9% rank/44.8% 30-day) announces earnings on Thursday after market close, so look to put on a play before the end of that session if you're looking to play the announcement for a volatility contraction. Pictured here is a February 18th 450/610 short strangle with the legs camped out at the 13 delta. Paying 9.20 at the mid as of Friday's close on buying power of 52.59 (on margin), it has a 17.5% ROC at max, 8.7% ROC at 50% max. I like to go wider with earnings announcement volatility contraction plays since these do one of two things: (1) come in immediately; or (2) give you headaches for several cycles if the move has been overly large and you have to defend the setup to scratch in a contracted volatility environment. If you're more of a defined risk bent, throw on some wings: the February 18th 440/450/610/620 iron condor is paying 1.90 on buying power effect of 8.10, 23.5% ROC at max, 11.7% ROC at 50% max. Naturally, these are just preliminary pricing and strikes. You'll want to adjust strikes as necessary, since the underlying is likely to move somewhat running into earnings. Exchange-Traded Funds Screened for Implied Volatility Rank >50% and 30-Day >35% and Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: ARKF (84/52) (Cathie Woods' Fintech Innovation) XBI (83/43) (Biotech) ARKG (79/59) (Cathie Woods' Genomic Revolution) KWEB (60/51) (China Internet) ARKK (59/44) (Cathie Woods' Innovation) URA (41/59) (Uranium) A lot of Cathie Woods' stuff in there ... . I like to reserve these for the monthlies, since the weeklies aren't all that liquid in some of these. Unfortunately, the February 18th monthly is a little short in duration for my tastes (33 days until expiry) and March a bit long, so will probably hand sit on deploying buying power in this area until the March monthly's duration shortens -- it's currently 61 days, and I like to keep things +/- a week or so of 45 days. One underlying that doesn't really have a 52-week valid implied volatility rank is BITO (1/68), since it hasn't been around for 52 weeks yet. However, that "1" indicates that its implied is low within the range its established since inception, and I'd naturally prefer it to be higher even though its 30-day outranks all of 30-days I've got in my little list, so I'm keeping an eye on it, having just exited a BITO short strangle on Friday. Broad Market Exchange-Traded Funds Ordered by Implied Volatility Rank: XLK (46/27) QQQ (43/25) EFA (35/17) IWM (36/26) DIA (24/18) SPY (23/19) I've moved XLK from my exchange-traded fund grid to my broad market grid, since it enjoys a close correlation with SPY (.87 90-day) and an even closer correlation with QQQ. XLK is about half the size of QQQ, so if you like to layer on, it's a little more nimble for that purpose. I've been selling premium in small caps (IWM) in the weeklies to bide my time while monthly setups come in or have to be managed, but may consider sticking some of my pickle into QQQ next week given the fact that its rank implies that it's more "expanded" (if that makes any sense). I'd probably use the March 4th expiry, where the QQQ 16-delta 342/408 is paying 5.69 on buying power of 48.03, 11.8% ROC at max, 5.9% at 50% max. Naturally, the market may look entirely different from an implied volatility standpoint coming off a long holiday weekend, so I always have a second look at whether doing that is worthwhile once the market opens.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by NaughtyPines
5
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 89.22 Short Call to 82.22... for a 2.51 credit. Comments: More defense as this underlying continues to implode. Total credits collected of 16.99 (See Post Below) plus the 2.51 here equals 19.50. The resulting inversion is, unfortunately, 22 strikes wide -- 2.50 greater than the total of credits I've collected. This means that I won't be able to scratch it out during this cycle regardless of what happens with price, but will have to roll out for duration if I want to attempt to do that until I've collected more credits than the width of the inversion. Alternatively, I can consider taking the loss and moving on, but the best case loss scenario at the moment is a 2.50 loss (assuming price moves back between the strikes).
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
7
Nasdaq Index - Bull or bear market more likely?I got a bit of criticism over not being clear enough in my previous chart. So i have created specifically a Nasdaq index chart which will show my thinking more clearly. The Nasdaq index back at the start of 2000 was the bull market to end bull markets. The innovation of using the internet was a technological revolution and no one saw an end to the bull market...until it ended. The end coincided with a break of medium term trendline as the internet startups folded one by one. From that point onwards the Nasdaq entered a brear market and didn't recover the old highs for another 15 years. We're in a similiar position today, with the fed about to raise rates to control inflation, no one appears to think the impossible is possible. It is. If we break this medium term trendline, which appears to be very close to breaking (2 weekly closes below the line would confirm a break), we would expect a bear market to follow. This could take decades to recover from. What goes up, must also come down (at least a bit). The fact that the nasdaq market cap is more than half comprised of only 6 companies, suggests that it is just as sensitive to a large correction today. Albeit the reasons for a bear market will be very different. Easy money has distorted the markets and funds like Arkk that think 40% annualised returns are possible with these stocks may be signs that we are at frenzy level of bullishness (just like in 2000). I do not expect the bear market to be as bad as the beginning of the millenium, however i do think it will be signficiant and it could be coming sooner than expected, with fed tightening expected to quicken.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by WinstonWolfe
6
$ARKK AnalysisAs mentioned above in last weeks post I was expecting a reversal off of $93, and while the bounce did happen out of my projected buy zone, it was met with relentless selling pressure once reaching the $98 level. Price is still in an overall downtrend, but as we approach the key $80 level I am certainly watching for a bounce out of the demand zone depicted in the chart. If $80 is lost, there is no telling where the selling may end, thus it is the only support level I have noted for this week. $ARKK needs to reclaim $90 for any bullish action to ensue. 
AMEX:ARKKLong
by BensStocks_
$ARKK - Weekly TF analysis-Primary W4 target zone (38.2 - 50) -Nearing channel bottom -Reached 1st fib target for Y leg of W4 (-23.6) -Confluent support of 38.2 fib and channel bottom -Weekly RSI at march 2020 covid lows -Downside risk defined at 72.50 From the looks of it, we might be nearing a bottom on growth stocks. Keep in mind this is a weekly chart so if we do continue down, it could drag out for another few weeks. However, downside risk is defined at the 50% fib, at 72.50. I would start building a position from here and continue building as long as ARKK is above 72.5. ARK's time horizons are 5 years, and market jitters will last 5 months, maybe a year if we're really fucked. Ask yourself, did Cathie Wood and her team suddenly become stupid over night, or does the market work in cycles?
AMEX:ARKKLong
by ir-rizzle
12
Apocalypse of ARK invest, a forcast that became a reality..!Jim Simons: “Scientists and mathematicians are trained to dig below the surface of the chaotic, natural world to search for unexpected simplicity, structure, and even beauty. On February 28th, 2021 (10 months ago) I published this article: The Social Media Trading Bubble comes to its end..! I have always said: Only time could show the accuracy of analysis..! I believe the ARK’s CEO and her team members did not buy the Sci-Fi stories the told people on their social media, but they tried their best to sell it to others, and they were very successful..! Look at the performance of these stocks, most of them skyrocketed 10x, 20x or even more in less than 2-3 years. - CRSP , ROKU, SNAP, PINS, NNDM , WKHS , Tesla , and ... Now as an example, I will explain CRSP and what ARK did with this stock. There is no doubt CRISPER is one of the most important and disruptive medical innovations. Therefore, Jennifer Anne Doudna an American biochemist known for her pioneering work in CRISPR gene editing, awarded the 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry along with Emmanuelle Charpentier. By a quick search on social media you will find ARK’s CEO talking about CRSP enthusiastically and the share price skyrocketed almost 20 times in the last 4 years. And if you see the ARK watcher, you will find out they almost emptied their portfolio from CRSP in the last 2 months and share price slipped from 220 to 125 since Jan 15th, 2021. Yet, I believe it could go down to 70 in the coming months!!! The question is : Is CRISPER not an innovative/ disruptive Genomic medical company any more? ( as a doctor and holder of M.D. degree, my answer to this question is: CRISPER is a disruptive Genomic medical company) So the question could change to: Everything ARK has talked about was not true? Or they don’t believe in the 3 trillion Genomic revolutions they are talking about anymore? I believe ARK noticed a company with 719k revenue ( CRSP )in the past 4 quarters couldn’t have a 15.5 Billion market cap, and they suddenly decided to insert the needle into the bubble they created in the first place, buy selling their CRSP shares! Last words, I have good news for ARK invest, Tesla chart pretty much looks like CRSP ..! So be ready for that bubble burst too!( Tesla is the biggest part of the pie in most of ARK’s ETFs) Time will show us the reality of the people’s claims..! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
CBOE:ARKGShort
by Moshkelgosha
10
Rolled: ARKK February 18th 94.22 Short Call to 89.22... for a 1.74 credit. Comments: Yowsa. This continues to implode, so continuing to manage it defensively ... . As of my last roll, I'd collected 15.25 in credits. (See Post Below). With this roll, I've collected a total of 16.99 for what is now an inverted 15-wide: the 89.22C/104.22P with a downside break even of 104.22 - 16.99 or 87.23 relative to today's closing price of 85.58, so I've still got some work to do to get my cost basis at or below where the underlying is currently trading. Alternatively, I need the markets to do some of the work for me by giving me a bounce.
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
Starting to buy ARKK here.Not a big stock guy but shifting capitol from crypto to diversify into some investments that actually represent tangible companies that make things lol. Strategy is to buy stocks/ETF's at standard classical pattern supports that are down 30-60% and let it ride. I am betting that 8 out of 10 stocks I am about to punt will not go to zero and that 40-60% discounts is a good deal. Falling wedge here and a nice dogi daily candle forming. Not advise archiving thoughts.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by A5gamakatsu
ARKK forecast in the next 1-2 months..!10 months ago when I published my views about ARKK, I received so many bad comments..! I did not change my mind and never published a Buy analysis on ARKK, Why? Because I studied ARK invest at least for one year and I read the CEO background and her track record from the beginning! So many people who believe in ARK invest just looking at the last 5 years, but CEO has a fascinating story in 2008..! "Worst Performance" in 2008 and she did repeat it in 2021: -24% (40% from all-time high) in a year all indexes were positive between 13.7% to 27%..! Now the question is what is her big plan for 2022??? This year will be much more difficult..! I think her position as CEO of ARK invest will be challenged sooner or later in 2022..! She was wrong about Energy and Financial sectors and paid the price for that..! I think ARKK will go down to 70 in the first quarter of 2022..!
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
6
ARKK - Hydrophones Picking Up NoiseWood's Hole has been busy with the creaking sounds from the Deep Blue. Small Caps within the Covenant have been leaking badly, some now down 70&. Full bubble engaged. _____________________________________________________________________ Innovation Spec, Meta, and Cathy all wondering why, of course, it will be another dip buy for Future Value. We disagree with her Thesis and believe recalibration of her Grift is needed. A carnie is a carnie. The Big Top fire is spreading, Noah is loading the critters, while the mid 60s appear to be too much of an angle for the ARKK sub to withstand. ______________________________________________________________________ 100% CASH on Close.
AMEX:ARKK
by HK_L61
$XLE $SXLE 2022 Setup Perfect formation and setup for Energy stocks which I expect bullish performance till end of Q2 2022 and by then most likely 2 interest hikes will be already done. Then as of Q3 also due to base effect inflation will start to come down and rotaion will be from value to growth stocks. on Weekly chart it is even more visible. My 2022 portfolio will be on precious metals gold and silver (more on silver) and energy stocks till June-July and then switching to beaten down tech stocks like ARKK, ARKG, SE, LSPD NOW etc.
LSE:SXLELong
by S5_Trading_Desk
HOOD $75 PT - Cognitive DissonanceThoughts below, future chart candles are just for fun - Cognitive dissonance driven by retail and news media's love affair together around hating the stock. If you set aside personal bias, they have a history of finding creative ways to add new users which get emulated by the competition (IBKR just got around to adding Instant Deposit). They're the most competitively positioned broker for future growth and they have the means to get there without raising additional capital anytime soon, as of the end of their most recent quarter Q3 they had 6 billion in cash and cash equivalents on their balance sheet. Banning Payment for Order Flow is unrealistic, the way things are leaning the SEC will require more transparent and timely public reporting of short selling data to regain public trust. Quicker settlement like T+1 has some traction as well, any improvement here is good for the HOOD. Large fund flows into the stock (D1 Capital, ARK) and short seller profit taking (Deutche Bank) appear to be underway, the next 13F filings will help confirm sentiment change. 2022 will see significant product functionality releases as HOOD grows out of its simple trading app for millennials image and gets accepted as a "real" broker with competitive tools. Fully embracing the crypto space, recent acqui-hire brings top talent to their crypto development team and suggests something big is cooking but they're holding their cards close. Most recent 10Q is vague around the product roadmap and mentions items which clearly diverge from the actions they're actually taking. You can barely consider them a crypto trading platform currently since they only have a few assets available and price execution is lousy. However, Robinhood has an opportunity to eat Coinbase's lunch, unless they squander it entirely. Just technical, reversion to Mean. It's no secret there's a significant divergence between individual stock performance and the mega-caps/indexes.
NASDAQ:HOODLong
by Big-Worm
1
Rolling: ARKK January 21st 95.22C/104.22P to February 18th... 94.22C/104.22P inverted short strangle for a 3.80 credit. Comments: Rolling this a smidge early here. Total credits collected of 15.25 as of the last adjustment (See Post Below) plus the credit received for this roll. The setup is inverted by 10.00, so I can still make money on it because I've collected more in credits than the inversion, but am more likely just to scratch it out if I get the opportunity so that I can reload an unbroken setup. I would note that there was a dividend/special distribution on the 29th which affected the strike prices of the setup.
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines