Rolled: ARKK December 17th 104C/106P to January 21st 100C/105P... short strangle for a 4.16 credit.
Comments: Late post. Rolled this on Friday with 14 days to go, improving the inversion by one strike on the put side, but widening it to sell the short call strike that was about half the delta of the short put. Total credits collected: 10.22.
This started out as a high probability of profit, delta neutral December 17th 106/135 short strangle (See Post Below), after which ARKK proceeded to implode, resulting in defensive short call rolls from the 135 to the 114 strike (See Post Below), and then the 114 to the 104 strike (See Post Below).
The end result is an inverted, 5-wide short strangle, with the short put above the short call and break evens on the down side of the short put strike minus total credits collected or 105.00 - 10.22 = 94.78 and on the call side of the short call strike (100.00) plus the total credits received of 10.22 or 110.22 and delta/theta of 29.71/13.08.
The underlying finished Friday's session at 93.53 relative to a downside break even of 94.78, so I'm not in horrible shape relative to if I had just sat there and watched in horror as the short call converged on worthless and the short put value exploded. Ideally, I get a bounce back to the mid point of the inversion (to around 102.50), but I'll continue to look to manage sides to keep the setup from getting too directional.
ARKK
Rolled: ARKK December 17th 114 Short Call to 104... for a 1.75 credit.
Comments: Going inverted here with my ARKK short strangle to cut net delta, with the setup now being a 106P/104C two-wide inverted short strangle that's net 35 delta long or so.
It's only got 15 days until expiry, so will probably look at rolling next week unless it pops back up above its downside break even which is the short put strike (106) minus total credits collected (6.01) or 99.99.
ARKK Ark Innovation ETF: Short TermHello friends, today I am completing a technical analysis on the 1D linear scale chart for Ark Innovation ETF ( ARKK ) led by Cathie Wood.
#CryptoPickk notes the following:
1) Ark Innovation has had a great run from 2020 into early 2021 when the ETF made an all time high. Since that point, it has been correcting.
2) Since the all the high, the price has been ranging within a multi-month triangle pattern, which it recently broke down from.
3) Since this was a Symmetrical Triangle, measurement from the top to the bottom of the triangle shown in the yellow line was taken to estimate a measured move.
4) The pattern breakdown, shows a target price around the $75-85 range before the next possible pattern may begin.
5) This also falls in line with the Fibonacci Retracement level of 0.382 which is around $81.
6) Since the RSI (relative strength index) is heavily oversold at this point, the price may have a relief rally or a dead cat bounce before moving lower to the target price. Usually the dead cat bounce occurs around the 0.786 Fib level shown in the cyan color Fibonacci Retracement.
7) The Volume is strong so expect volatility.
8) Short term for ARKK is not looking great, but neither is the entire stock market so let's see where this one is headed.
What are your opinions on this?
If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk
A comparison between S&P500 Nasdaq 100 and ARKK..!The CEO of ark Invest repeatedly talked about the possibility of a crash in Index funds while denying Her Managed ETF is one of the worst performers in the market since February 2021!
In February I publish this:
Please review her performance in 2008, to know more about her performance in a possible Bearish market!
Orange line: S&P500
Blueline: NASDAQ100
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Inside the current correction on SQToday, we will take a look at Square INC.
The main context for the price is the previous corrective structure (white lines). In August, the price apparently made a breakout which then got back into the structure once again, creating a secondary structure (yellow lines)
We always work with the idea that the price moves between zones of the same degree, so, in this case, we expect the price to reach the lower zone of the current structure (support level)
IF that happens, we want to observe a breakout of the inner trendline (white line inside the yellow structure). IF that happens, we will wait for a small retest, and then we expect a bullish movement towards the higher zone of the current correction (shared area between the primary and secondary corrective patterns.)
The filters we are using to validate our view are:
a) Contact with the support level
b) Breakout of the inner descending trendline
c) retest
IF all the previous items are true, then:
d) Wait for a bullish impulse towards the higher zone of the correction if we observe a clear breakout of the small retest we are looking for.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view/chart or any comment about this. ;)
ARKK ideas going wrong in many ways ARKK performed well in 2020 COVID but lost all year gain in 2021 , Cathie like have 1 stop shop and buying selling everyday not working well when we want real valuation or in long holding. Tech sector got more bubble compare to other sectors.
In near time we are not seeing ARKK recovery or their strategy not working well.
MELI | Breakout or Bounce?MELI, Breakout or bounce?
Today we will take a look at the Latin American e-commerce platform "Mercado Libre."
Currently, the price is on a relevant level to pay attention to; it's a zone where we have a support level and the cloned trendline of the current correction. As this is a major zone, we can start thinking about the bullish or bearish resolution from here.
IF the price breaks the current zone, the next support level is likely to be the bearish target of the movement, around 970. However, if the price can bounce from here, we can expect a bullish movement towards the descending trendline at 1550.
I want to see the price breaking the descending trendline (yellow) to consider bullish opportunities. EXAMPLE
Thanks for reading! Feel free to add your view and charts in the comments.
Rolled: ARKK December 17th 135 Short Call to 114... for a 1.27 credit.
Comments: This is the short call aspect of a December 17th short strangle. I rolled the call side down on approaching worthless to cut net delta by about half. As a standalone trade, it's short delta, but that is offset by the short put aspect's long delta, so looked at holistically, it's more of a neutral assumption setup when you look at both the short call and short put as a unit.
I originally put on the short strangle for 3.04 (See Post Below) and had a price target to take profit when it reached 50% of that or at 1.52. I'm going to keep that profit target the same by entering a good until cancelled order to take profit for 1.52 (my original target) plus what I collected for the roll -- 1.27 -- or 2.79. Put another way, I've collected a total of 3.04 + 1.27 in credits or 4.31 and 4.31 minus 1.52 (my original profit target) equals 2.79.
COIN | Analysis of the current situationToday, we will take a look at Coinbase. Currently, the price is down -26% since IPO. But what can we expect from here?
* After 223 days of trading since IPO, we have some context to make Technical Analysis and make some quick conclusions.
* We can see a clear transition between the beginning of the bearish movement to the sideways movement on the bottom and the beginning of a new bullish situation
* Now we can see a cloned channel broken and a Flag pattern, finding support there. The proportions between impulses and corrections are clear so that we can make our first conclusion on a possible direction
* IF the price breaks above "B" on the flag pattern, we will consider that as an activation level for our bullish view towards the 3 following levels:
-FIRST: First fibo extension
-SECOND: Previous ATH
-THIRD: Second Fibo extension (final target)
*For our view to stay valid, the price should not go below the cloned channel for more than a couple of candlesticks. Otherwise, the flag pattern will be invalid, and we should be open to a new bearish movement towards 240 (lower trendline of the ascending channel)
Thanks for reading! Let us know in the comments any view or idea you have about this.
Some ideas on the most significant drop in PYPL history.PYPL is on my trading watchlist because, as a growth stock, it has been in a corrective situation for a reasonable amount of time, 284 days to be exact, from February 16, 2021. When we have this type of consolidation, it is easy to look at the past and ask a simple question. How many times did a similar situation like the current one has happened?
As you can see, there are 3 situations, including this one, that we can compare and understand to look for a good spot to develop setups with a goods ods as evolving as expected + High risk to reward ratio.
Let's check all of them.
AUG2015 - APR2017
JUL2019 - MAY2020
FEB2021 - YTD
I don't have a final idea of what I want to trade here. However, I'm certain I will not develop any bullish setup below the current descending trendline. Once the price gets close to it, I will develop the specific filter I'm waiting for. Based on past behavior, if I see a breakout of the descending trendline + a clear filter (not defined yet), I think it is a good opportunity to look for setups with a target on the previous high and beyond. That would mean R/R ratios above 5 or 6 (if we can catch that), and at the same time, we can absorb multiple stop loss, and even if we get it right on the 4th attempt; we still are able to make profits.
Feel free to add any ideas or thoughts about this in the comments! Thanks for reading.
After 200 days we can see a breakout | MUToday we will take a look at Micron Technology, a company that engages in the provision of innovative memory and storage solutions. Time to check the Technical elements on the chart:
1) From 2018 until November 2020 the price was inside a massive range until we saw the breakout of it and a 50% bullish movement from that situation towards the top of the bullish impulse
2) From April until today the price has been consolidating on a clear corrective pattern where we can define both top and bottom edges
3) How can we know that the structure is finished? Two reasons here: first we have clear edges (previous item) and second the structure has made contact with a key level, in this case, the ascending trendline.
4) Now we have a breakout of the corrective pattern. Remember that Technical Analysis is a statistical discipline, which means that we are never gonna have certainty about a situation. However, we know that if we engage in quality situations over certain periods, we will be able to observe consistent results.
5) We are not taking setup on this stock, (we already have exposure on other assets). However, it's an interesting situation to wait for a throwback (retest of a broken structure). IF that happens, we have defined an activation level as you can see on the chart (ALWAYS ABOVE THE TRENDLINE)
6) Depending on how aggressive is the setup you are taking, the invalidation level can be: FIRST below the whole structure 65.00 / SECOND below the throwback (this setup provides a massive risk to reward ratio, however, is prone to a quick stop loss)
7) Targets: IF I would be executing a setup here, I would protect my setup once the price reaches the previous top, which shares a major resistance zone that you can see on the weekly chart (2% below that, I want to be risk-free) / Now, the places to close setups on profit can be the first or 2nd Fibonacci extension. The expected duration of a movement like this may be between 200 to 300 days.
8)RISK: This is the formula I use to trade: I never have more than 5 setups at the same time NEVER EVER. And the maximum % of risk I take on any setup is 3% (ONLY with a STRATEGY THAT YOU HAVE a lot of EXPERIENCE WITH). Let's understand this better, most of my setups happen on the daily chart, which means that time resolutions are between 2 weeks to 3 months. Another rule I use is that my setups must happen on uncorrelated assets example: NFLX / BTCUSD / XAUUSD / FCX / AMZN. So my worst-case scenario is losing all at the same time which means a -10% to -15%. That's more than acceptable for me. And the most probable thing is that I would be able to open 4 to 5 new setups 1 to 2 months later. That's why this type of trading style is so secure. Even in apocalyptic scenarios, you would face a manageable loss, and it will take you time to develop new setups (you avoid impulsive trading)
Thanks for reading! Please feel free to share any idea about MU, in terms of technical or fundamental analysis.
Pending setup on ARKK based on Historical BehaviourToday we will share a pending setup we have on The ARKK Innovation ETF managed by Cathie Wood. Another great asset in terms of technical behavior.
What's the key idea of this setup?
-Once we have a CLEAR correction, EXAMPLE: a formation with more than 150 days or a significant drop in the price like 2020. We draw the MOST external trendline using Higher lows; the idea is that any candlestick must not be visible above that line. Ok, once the price makes the first breakout of that line, we wait for a small corrective pattern, which can be something like 3 days or more than 15 days.
IF that happens, we trade above that correction with a stop loss below it and a take profit level at 2.5 Risk to Reward ratio. In the following picture, you can see the historical result of this strategy, EVEN in situations that we should NOT have entered. (we use a stop loss of 150USD as an example on every setup)
Alright, so is this setup going to be a take-profit? I DONT F@%#ING now. And honestly, I don't care about the specific result of it. The only thing I know is that I'm executing a setup under a strategy that I have a clear edge over, so I don't know the result of the next setup. However, I'm certain that the result of the next 10 setups will have a positive edge.
The risk I will be taking on this setup is 2% of my capital on the stop loss. That means that if everything goes wrong, I will lose 2% of my capital. The duration of this setup can be between 20 to 45 days.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to add any comment or idea.
ARKK 1D - Golden Cross Coming UpARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) led by Cathie Wood is shown a possible near break of the triangle with a possible golden cross on the MA coming up very soon. I plotted fib levels to see how I we can possibly go. There has been consolidation since March 2021. It seems that a breakout is coming very soon.
What are your opinions on this? Comment below, hit the like and follow me. Thank you!
Check out more below for recent Altcoin, Bitcoin and Stock Ideas.
Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis . Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #cryptopickk #bitcoin #altcoins