Get started

ARKK

AMZN looking perfect from a technical perspectiveToday we will talk about the AMZN setup we have currently pending. Most of the time, we never have more than three setups executed at the same time. One of those is Amazon; after the breakout of the massive range, we observed a Flag Pattern on the edge of it, which is a sequence that has been repeated with different variations across the history of the asset. Why is this relevant? Because our primary approach when executing any setup is: "Can I demonstrate that what I'm trying to trade right now have been proven to have a statistical advantage on the past? If the answer Is yes, we proceed. Based on our research, this setup represents a pattern with an excellent statistical edge overall. Does it mean that the following setup will be a profitable one? Nobody knows; it's impossible to determine which "game" or "sequence" of the system will be a take profit or a stop loss. However, we know that after 15 or 30 setups with this quality, we can create a statistical advantage, or in other words, "Profits." Returning to the chart, the strategy we are using here is pretty simple. We will execute our setup above "B," or the inner local resistance of the flag pattern. Stop loss will be below the structure. Take Profit will be on the fibo extension of the previous impulse ( MAR 2020 - SEP 2020) Risk: We will be taking a maximum loss of 1.5% of our trading capital. A movement like this can take between 100 to 150 days. (Be patient) Thanks for reading!
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by ThinkingAntsOk
3
Rolling (IRA): ARKK Oct 15th 100 Short Put to Nov 19th 104... for a 1.50/contract credit. Comments: With the 100's at greater than 50% max (they're worth .84 here), rolling out to the November monthly for a realized gain and a credit. The implied isn't as good as it was, but is still >35%; otherwise, I'd just leave it alone or take profit and move on. Relatedly, since the implied isn't fantastically great, keeping my units the same instead of adding, keeping buying power free for a higher volatility environment. Total credits collected of 3.52 (See Post Below) + 1.50 = 5.02 versus a current short put value of 2.38, so I've realized profits of 5.02 - 2.38 = 2.64 ($264)/contract so far.
AMEX:ARKKLong
by NaughtyPines
$ARKK: Cathie vs Burry, Which Side Will You Choose?The 120 level on ARKK continues to act as a very prominent level. What would you do? ARKK 120 features a prominent low volume node and now we have a chance to meet this level with the falling trendline that starts from the Feb high to the June 2021 lower high. Together these forces will meet and ultimately decision in the coming weeks. I'll let time tell me which way I'll play this one but will the Russell 2000 be a canary in the coal mine or will it successfully squeeze bears like it's been known to do. You may also look to the Fed and forex markets to see how the dollars role may play apart. Good luck traders!
AMEX:ARKK
by Fox_Technicals
2
TSLA - Woodie Doubles down, Attempts to Call out BurryAnd fails miserably. Burry has outperformed the S&P by a factor of 10.112 X Burry nailed the prior 2 Highs prior to meltdowns. Burry is a Hedge Fund, Woods a Joke ETF. Burry has been calling the Ball correctly for 20 Years. Woods has been screwing the pooch of late with a track record of 19 straight losses on entries. Woods is well out of her league, by any metric - ARKK Gamblers will see this JUNK Fund shed 20% with relative ease as CALLs only go so far, desperate attempt by Woodie to prop up her very large mistakes. It will end very badly for Cathy as this reverses, the same tired game once again. We are SELLERs of ARKK @ 120.11. The 750 Call buyer are back in play attempting their 5th Gamma Squeeze on the Pivot of 679 and then 696. We closed a small position in TSLA we bough to open @ 696 for 10 handles @ 706 x 400. We have a large sell ladder from 720 to 750.... - Hunter Killer
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by HK_L61
16
Rolling (IRA): ARKK September 17th 102 to October 15th 100... short put for a 1.08/contract credit. Comments: With the 30-day implied remaining fairly decent at 43.2% and the September 17th 102's at around 50% max, rolling them down and out to the October 100's for a 1.08/contract credit here. I originally collected 2.44/contract for the 102's, (See Post Below), so have collected 2.44 + 1.08 = 3.52 versus a current short put value of 2.40/contract (i.e., I realize a gain of 1.12 ($112)/contract).
AMEX:ARKK
by NaughtyPines
No one buys ARKK tales anymore..!1000% gain in the past 5 years! (Feb 2016-Feb 2021) The monthly Price volume decreased 62% between March and July 2021. ARKK builds bearish patterns in higher (weekly and monthly timeframe) and YTD performance is negative (-6.45%)..! This happened while all major indexes were positive! A non-random walk hypothesis Martin Weber, a leading researcher in behavioral finance, has performed many tests and studies on finding trends in the stock market. In one of his key studies, he observed the stock market for ten years. Throughout that period, he looked at the market prices for noticeable trends and found that stocks with high price increases in the first five years tended to become under-performers in the following five years. Weber and other believers in the non-random walk hypothesis cite this as a key contributor and contradictor to the random walk hypothesis. Falsehood always preferred the tale to the truth— Sir Winston Churchill. Reference Article: www.jstor.org
AMEX:ARKKShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Is ARKK and Cathie Woods time up? J.Powells' clock is ticking...Whether it is bitcoin, SPACs, shorted meme stocks, Tesla or other heavily priced in Growth stocks (High Price/Book value), all of these speculative assets have one common factor, that is the cheapness/availability of money. However, this may all change if in the next 2-3 readings inflation pressure are proven to be persistent. Relatively, will be a very in-detail idea, but bear with me. Firstly, before I get into analyzing other factors, as the chart shows, the current risk-reward ratio on ARKK is skewed towards the short side with a strategy of directly shorting ARKK, or buying OTM puts @105 or 80, with a stop-loss at 130. There are several fundamentals reasons for shorting ARKK: 1) The concentrated positions of ARKK into few names ark-funds.com as ARKK is an actively managed fund where on the way down it would become increasingly problematic for Cathie to cut losing positions, with a potential of a self-enforcing liquidity spiral. 2) The largest holdings such as Tesla are priced in heavily above the SPX price/earnings(Forward P/E =115, SPX P/E= current 35, historical 16, price/book value ratios(28 vs 4.7), which is simply unsustainable in terms of future expected returns, unless Tesla takes over the world, which simply won't happen by any stretch of the imagination. Granted there seems to be a trend continuation on Tesla, although it may as well be a trap if the FED changes the current course (a discussion will follow below). 3) In the last few weeks since the IPO of $HOOD, ARKKs correlation to bitcoin futures has been 60%, although historical correlation since 2017 is only 20%. It begs the question as ARKK accumulates more and more names whose value is directly derived from cryptocurrencies (Tesla, Robinhood, Coinbase, SQ and others), is holding ARKK roughly the same as holding bitcoin/cryptos as they are both primarily driven by the same factor? Well it all boils down to understanding the key factor, which as mentioned appears to be the cheapness/availability of money. The question is when will money stop being cheap as it is today? The long drawn out debate will the FED taper, or even worse when will the FED start hiking. To understand how the FED sets their policy, it is based on whether or not they are fulfilling their congress given mandates which are price stability (inflation within target range) and maximum employment (unemployment at or below the long term rate ~5%). Currently based on the spot rates, the market is pricing in that there will be 1 hike in 2020 (Forward 1 year rate in 1 year, ~0.36) and roughly 2 more hikes in 2023. With balance sheet tapering (where the FED unloads bonds to the market in return for cash, or does not buys/tapers as much assets), the current projections are within the start of next year. However, plans may change as they quickly did back in 2019. From this chart it can be clearly observed that during the last policy normalization in 2016 (snipboard.io), the FED only started hiking once unemployment went below 5% (roughly the long term unemployment rate). In a normal environment where the FED isn't trapped by their QE policies, where both inflation and real growth rate are far exceeding their targets as stated by Taylor rule(nominal rates = neutral rate + inflation + 0.5 * (inflation - inflation target ) + 0.5 * (real gdp growth - potential gdp growth), the FED is bound to hike. But they've used the maximum employment "excuse" to not do so. This is why the recent reading where unemployment went down to 5.4% from 5.9% is scary. This meant that the fed is closer to fulfilling their maximum employment mandate, however they are far beyond their inflation target rate of about 2% =>>>> implying higher probability of more earlier hawkish policy to also fulfill the price stability mandate, because they don't have the maximum employment excuse any longer. Based on the recent readings (services PMI 64 vs 60, unemployment and todays inflation) bonds quickly reacted The current 5 year average (breakeven) inflation expectations are back within the inflation target of around 2% (2.5%-forecasting premium ~0.5%, snipboard.io), although this rate can hardly be trusted any longer as the FED holds roughly 1/5 th of the TIPS market. This is my attempt of shortening this long story, which relates to ARKK, as ARKK experienced two drawdowns in March and May of ~-30 to -20% during the last episodes of inflation fears when the 10 year yields went to 1.75%. This suggests that ARKK is extremely sensitive to yields above 1.5% given its growth factor exposure. A yield steepening caused by less quantitative easing and more likely rate hikes, certainly implies a choppy market ahead (at best) where value is gaining above growth (). SPX at these levels has returned nearly 20% for the year 2021 so far (4450/3750 -1 = 18.5% +~2% div yield), which is more than a standard deviation above the average of ~8%. It is simply unsustainable to continue the current fiscal and monetary policy stances that has driven asset prices higher mainly due to the multiples expansion, without mitigating the inflation risks that are bound to appear. Thank you for following along! If you have any questions or points to debate, make sure to leave them in the comments. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket ________________________________________________________________________________________ >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well-informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated! Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content- contact me through any of my social media channels. The QQQs in a wedge : Large caps, SPX futures getting heated up:
AMEX:ARKKShort
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
2
ARKK ANALYSIS 13.08.2021Hello Traders, here is a full analysis for this asset. The entry will be taken only, if all rules of your trading plan are satisfied. Therefore I suggest you keep this pair on your watchlist and see if all of your rules are satisfied. Leave your thoughts in the comment section, I will reply to every single one of them. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:ARKK
by basictradingtv
Time To Buy Coinbase? [LONG]With all the excitement around Robinhood's IPO this week and the recent resurgence of Bitcoin its easy to forget about COIN, after what appears to be the completion of a 51% retracement in price according to the Fibonacci retracement we see here. Since this retracement, COIN has quietly sprung 30% in price and appears to only be getting started if the chart I have illustrated here holds true. COIN has broken shallow retracement areas of its pull back and now appears to be gearing up for what could be an 8% move to its first target at around $292 per share. It is currently at a perfect low risk high reward trade currently as your likely risk to start off (if entering a long right this minute) would be -3%. However, your reward would be 8% and that would only be getting the party started. Anything below $259.92 is bearish and we want nothing to do with this asset at that point as this would be a breaking of the .236 fib level. It should be noted that a daily candle close below this level is what we would be looking for to confirm the bearish scenario. In the meantime this looks like a possible fun trade as the crypto market appears to be buzzing again and who none other than Coinbase should stand to benefit mightily.
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradeVibez
2