Back on an ARKKHello! If you are a follower and have been following my content I am happy to say that I am back! If you are new, welcome! I have been established as an options swing trader and became so successful that I bought a house. Now I am interested in real estate investing and have built a "Top 10 Picks" Portfolio with my top 10 picks that I will be spreading my money over in an attempt to save for a second property to soon rent out. This is a medium term goal of 2 years and I will be discussing my investment strategies, fundamental research on the "Top 10", and other general information about my top 10 picks. ARKK has been an ETF that I am highly interested in and was brought to my attention by YouTuber Andrei Jikh. He is a great investor/market analyst to follow and adds some humor to his videos. Back to ARKK! ARKK is an ETF that is actively managed by Cathie Wood. She does her own research and invest in companies that are high growth or have potential for high growth. Investments not meeting her growth standards are dumped and she is constantly searching the market for the best investments, With this there is a high expense ratio of 0.75 due to amount of work put in by the investment firm. Based on technical analysis it can be easily predicted that ARKK will rise tomorrow and retest a previous level of resistance at 41.30 a share. Based on the MACD, I believe ARKK has the potential to break through resistance. ARKK TOP 10 FACTS: Currently 40.37 a share, I am up 1.41% ( One day into the investment ) and this is in first place for performance in my portfolio. Follow to get random information pertaining to ARKK along with technical analysis, future price movement predictions, and more!
ARKK
Who did provide the seed money for Ark's first 4 ETFs???What is the difference between average investors and professional investors?
There are many, but the most important ones are:
1- Data analysis
2-Systematic approach
3-Strategy
4- ...etc.
This list could be very long, but what made living legends like Warren Buffet, Jim Simons, and Micheal J Burry ...etc. is data analysis and their different approach to the data market provided to these legends.
There is one factor above all of this and that is Consistency in profit-making..!
Warren Buffet believes he is successful in the market because he moved 2 steps forward and part of one back. in the past 60years. Jim Simons, on the other hand, beats Warren buffet exceptional performance in the past 20 years..! Micheal J Burry the true master in detecting bubbles has never had more than -18% performance in a year and it happened just once!
Why Cathie Wood does not belong to the above league?
Now I would like to look at the performance of Cathie Wood in 2021, 2014-2020, and then, her performance before she founded Ark invest.
Digging her past performance provides valuable data..!
The Bright side: Ark invest outperformed all major indexes by far..!
The Golden ages of Ark invest: 2014-2020 Beating all major indexes by far.
The Dark side:
The coin flipped in 2021: Ark invest underperformed all major indexes by far..!
The most important questions here are :
A: What has happened to Ark?
B: Why they have negative performance while all major indexes are positive???
To answer this question we should go back in the past a little more:
Cathie Woods financial life before Ark invest and at the early stages of Ark invest provides important clues:
Two Red Flags:
In 2001, she joined AllianceBernstein as chief investment officer of global thematic strategies, where she worked for 12 years, managing $5 billion. She was criticized for performing worse than the overall market during the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
In 2014, after her idea for actively managed exchange-traded funds based on disruptive innovation was deemed too risky by AllianceBernstein, Wood left the company and founded Ark Invest.
Why did she name the investment management Ark?
A devout Christian, Wood found inspiration for her company while reading The One-Year Bible. She often came across passages describing the Ark of the Covenant – the chest said to have held the Ten Commandments – being taken by the Israelites into battle. On the daily devotional podcast Jesus Calling, Wood said her company was founded on faith and added: “As I began to get this idea of a firm going and realized that I was fighting this war, I knew I had to name my company ‘Ark’ for Ark of the Covenant.”
ARK's first four ETF funds were seeded with capital from Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital.
Who is Bill Hwang???
The Tiger of Wall Street is a Korean-American investor. Bill Hwang was once known as ‘the greatest trader you had never heard of’ – then he lost it all. Bill Hwang, the Wall Street investor who ‘lost’ US$20 billion in days.
Other than the catastrophe he created in 2021, he had other Red Flags in his past.
In 2013, Bill Hwang was determined to pick up the pieces of a once-promising hedge fund career that had collapsed. Trading losses during the financial crisis had humbled him and the U.S. criminal conviction of his firm for insider trading had knocked Hwang out of the hedge fund game completely. He closed his Tiger Asia hedge fund, which specialized in Asian internet and media stocks, and lost all his clients.
He would soon be banned from trading in his favorite market, Hong Kong, and the other Asian markets in which he specialized, Japan and Korea, did not hold the same opportunity.
So Hwang turned his attention to the U.S. stock market.
Washington, D.C., Dec. 12, 2012 —
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged the manager of two New York-based hedge funds with conducting a pair of trading schemes involving Chinese bank stocks and making $16.7 million in illicit profits. He and his firms have agreed to pay $44 million to settle the SEC’s charges.
The SEC alleges that Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang, the founder and portfolio manager of Tiger Asia Management and Tiger Asia Partners, committed insider trading by short-selling three Chinese bank stocks based on confidential information they received in private placement offerings.
March 2021:
Bill Hwang stocks Crash: NASDAQ:VIAC NASDAQ:DISCA NASDAQ:BIDU NYSE:VIPS NYSE:TME
Interestingly, 4 days before it happened, I predicted it on March 16, 2021 :
VIAC:
TME:
The Grace & Mercy Foundation helps Hwang not paying Capital income tax:
The Grace & Mercy Foundation is almost entirely funded by Hwang, who serves as a director with his wife Becky and has given $591 million to the grant-making organization since its founding in 2006, according to IRS Form 990s filed through the end of 2018. More than $500 million of that amount came during the four most recent years of filings, from 2015 through 2018. The foundation’s net assets are listed in its latest filing at $470 million, after paying for operating expenses and gifts to nonprofit groups over the years.
Market Manipulators Work together:
While many people think I have a personal problem with Ark invest, I'm trying to shine the light on the missing part of this puzzle!
So far I found 4 out of many,
Cathie Wood
Elon Musk
Chamath Palihapitiya
Bill Hwang
...
Reference:
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
www.forbes.com
www.scmp.com
www.sec.gov
David Tepper, Cathie Wood, and the rise and fall of ARKKHere's a chart and idea about the AMEX:ARKK ETF founded by Cathie Wood. Like many, this was one of the most popular ETFs in existence back in 2020 and 2021. For the last 12 months it's been in free fall.
The innovation ETF! It invests in growing tech and emerging companies.
In the good times, this was the ETF to have. In the slow times, when capital is more expensive, when the economy is slowing a tad, this is not the ETF to have. The chart displays that perfectly.
However, at yesterday's 13f announcements, it turned out the famed hedge fund manager David Tepper, took a small $20 million stake in the ARKK ETF. This is just a fraction of his total billion dollar hedge fund, but what is the purpose of this.
To test the market?
Make some noise in the news?
Catch a bottom?
Exposure and hedging?
One interesting thing to observe on the chart is that the ETF is back to its 2018 and 2019 levels. Back then, it was bouncing off support. Today, the question is whether or not that support still exists or if support has become resistance.
They say never catch a falling knife.
This trading is not easy and I can't say I have done well on it myself.
But I do find it fascinating to watch in terms of market sentiment. I also plan on watching Tepper's position over the next 6-12 months.
Was it just a ploy of sorts? Will he add to his position? All of this seems worth watching and especially important for the next cycle, if it ever comes.
Note: the chart also shows a volume profile that specifically highlights the price levels that have attracted the most volume. You'll notice the red line across the chart shows that level. The price is right there now.
ARK ETF repeating Dow's Great Depression?The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) ever since (even before) its Peak on February 16 2021, has been printing a pattern similar to the one that Dow Jones (DJI) formed during the 1920s/30s Great Depression.
Right now it appears to have rebounded on Leg (f), which is the market bottom, and is pulling back to form Leg (h). According to Dow's blueprint, ARK should rebound aggressively above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level to Leg (i).
Do you think the worst is over for the tech driven ETF?
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The Week Ahead: ARKK, KRE, GDXJ; CFLT, COIN, DASH EarningsWith broad market implied volatility having crushed out mightily over the past couple of weeks, I'm left scrounging around in the exchange-traded fund and/or (ugh) single name space for premium. There aren't a lot of underlyings with ideal IVR/IV metrics to play, but there are a few things that still have decent IV in them, even if it isn't toward the top of its 52-week range.
There isn't anything in the exchange-traded fund space as of Friday close with an IVR >50%, but there are a few with 30-day IV >35% (which is the combination of metrics I like to see). Here there are, ranked by 30-day with stuff <$20/share weekend weeded out:
ARKK 41
KRE 41
KWEB 39
GDXJ 37
USO 36
XOP 35
Pictured here is a fairly plain Jane delta neutral short strangle in ARKK in the June expiry with the short legs camped out around the 16 delta, paying 1.00 at the mid price with break evens at 30 and 43.
The KRE June 16th 37/48 short strangle (16 delta) is paying around 1.25.
The KWEB June 16th 28 short straddle is paying around 1.95. (Going 16 delta short strangle didn't end up paying much; the 26/30.5 was paying .55).
The GDXJ June 16th 35/46 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.04 at the mid.
The USO June 16th 60.76 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 1.65 at the mid.
The XOP June 16th 112/143 short strangle (17 delta) is paying 3.04 at the mid.
Broad Market
Ugh. Why even go here ... . Broad market exchange-traded funds, ranked by 30-day IV:
IWM 21.3%
QQQ 20.6%
EFA 16.2%
SPY 16.1%
DIA 14.3%
Bond Funds
My only observation here is to note that TLT premium is better than SPY's (as is EMB's).
EMB 20.9%
TLT 17.0%
HYG 9.5%
AGG 7.4%
And, of course, there are earnings ... . I've screened and ranked these by >50% 30-day IV, as well as for options liquidity and thrown out underlyings that are trading at <$20/share:
COIN 111.2 (Thursday after market close)
W 107
RUN 92.9
CFLT 80.9 (Wednesday after market close)
PPL 73.4 (Thursday before market open)
FOUR 72.0
DASH 70.2 (Thursday after market close)
The drawbacks to W, RUN, and FOUR involve strike to strike granularity, which is why I haven't bothered to look up their announcement days and times. W and RUN have 1 1/2 wides; FOUR, has 5-wides. Not having 1-wides can not only make setting up delta neutral a pain; it can making rolling out a pain if you have to do that to manage the trade, so I generally avoid underlyings with weak strike granularity for earnings plays that are generally just made to take advantage of the ensuing volatility contraction. I would consequently lean toward plays in COIN, CFLT, PPL, and DASH for volatility contraction plays, looking to get into
CFLT, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Wednesday after market close).
PPL, Wednesday before market close (since it announces Thursday before market open).
COIN, Thursday, before market close.
DASH, Thursday, before market close.
Preliminary Setups:
CFLT May 19th 22.5 Short Straddle, 3.60 credit, 18.90/26.10 break evens
PPL: May 19th 29 Short Straddle, 1.03 credit. (Well, that's ... weak sauce. It's possible that the platform is misreporting 30-day, so this will have to be checked during the NY session).
COIN: May 19th 45/67 Short Strangle, 3.29 credit. (A smidge pesky, since I'd want to set up my put side tent somewhere between the 45 and the 40 strike, where there aren't any strikes at the moment.)
DASH: May 19th 52/73 Short Strangle, 1.95 credit.
4/28 Watchlist + NotesShort Watchlist today. Will go into details from this week on sunday nights list for next week.
SPY - Wanted consolidation or light pull back today and got a massive green day instead. Overall was not expecting this, but to be fair with the amount of dropping we did back to back leading up to today, I think it was fair to see this kind of range. Anyone who played the 2D-2U daily reversal should have made solid profits today. Overall going into tomorrow I am hoping for an inside day to end the week, but with the 2-2 reversal we have now created, we must look at breaking today's high to send us even higher. We have crossed back over the BF midpoint, but the weekly remains a nice red candle so we may not get to see the top of the BF range again. Also worth noting we start a new monthly candle next week so volatility may be high as we finish the weekly and monthly candles
Watchlist:
U - 2-1 at the bottom of a broadening formation drawn a while back. Looking for upside
ARKK - 2-1 at the bottom of a daily trendline for it's 3rd touch. Looking for upside as well
Personally did not trade today and had a super busy day with finals (Done with school for the semester btw), but will be back at it tomorrow and all of next week.
Apologies again for the short list. I will be sure to include all details from this week on my watchlist for monday whenever I get around to posting that this weekend.
Good luck finishing out the week/month strong as always
4/24 Watchlist + NotesSPY - I was neutral going into Friday, but I did mention my bias if I absolutely had to choose one was bearish. We barely broke under Thursday's low before ultimately closing back around the open level. This is pretty much what I was expecting Friday to look like, and now it opens up a great opportunity for the upcoming week. We have our 4th failed 2 on the daily with this one being a neutral candle, as well as a failed 2U on the weekly. This is the first weak weekly candle we have seen in a while, and it comes at an interesting level where we are fighting with previous weekly high resistance levels. I think this week will tell us whether we are going to reverse back under 400 or progress back up to the 420 and maybe 430 levels. We somewhat rejected the daily BF midpoint the last two sessions so I am thinking the daily chart could see a 2-2 reversal which may trigger a weekly 2-2 continuation, but at the same time if Monday is weak for SPY we could trigger a 2-2 reversal on the weekly. Overall I am neutral going into Monday, and I am more so just looking to see which way price breaks to. If I had to guess, I would say we break that midpoint and trigger the 2-2 weekly, but that is just my guess, and a guess only because of my longer term bearish bias.
Watchlist + Challenge Account info:
Account value: 46.98 (Only took one trade last week and it was a small Loss)
Weekly Setups For Swings:
W - 2-1
NOW - 3-1
HTHT - 3-1
MDB - 3-1
NFE - 2-1
AAL - 2-1
ETSY - 2-1
CRWD - 2-1
With the above mentioned tickers, just look for setups on the daily/hourly for swings. Setups on smaller time frames act as dominoes to create active setups on higher time frames, remember that.
Daily Setups: All shown in picture
Main Watch: ETSY
2-1 Weekly and Daily charts. Potentially at the bottom of a BF on the daily, looking for upside tomorrow and for the rest of the week
Previous Main Watch:
AAPL - Winner: Wanted downside and we got it. Opened much lower than short entry so we were not able to get in on this play, but seeing that we were correct with analysis is always a win in my books. Looking for AAPL to continue lower this week
Watchlist Stats From Last Week:
4/5 SPY predictions
2/6 Main Watch Plays
Top Winner: TSLA +15%
Personal Stats:
3/4 On The Week
Overall: Green
- Top Winner personally was T being +615%
- Swung ARKK puts over the weekend. (Super Small position)
- Been loving the swing setups and broadening formations a lot more lately. Seems to bring more success to my trading
Lets kill it again this week! Looking to really get the challenge account value up this week. Trying to hit 100$ by Friday
TESLA: Price drop of 30%, SELLJan 23 Prices Model M: USD 66,000
Mar 23 Prices Model M: USD 42,000
Drop of 30%, but sales increased by only 5%.
The EPS Estimates for March earnings per share is $0.85, a drop of 32%: that means price cuts directly ate into the bottomline.
The March '23 EPS would be its Biggest Drop in years.
Is that the reason of the ill timed price rise after a day of the annnouncement of Price Cut !!
Target USD 135
$FFTY Breakout / Re-Test?AMEX:FFTY The Innovator IBD 50 ETF – This ETF is sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) It holds high beta / high growth names mostly mid and small caps. I like it for its holdings, very similar to AMEX:ARKK except that the holdings in AMEX:FFTY rotate a little more than $ARKK. Like AMEX:ARKK , this is a good barometer of risk-on / risk-off in the market.
Here is what I see on the chart (most is notated on the chart). Break above both the resistance area and move over the 30 Week SMA. That happened yesterday and looks to be re-testing today. I like all that volume this had on Monday, not sure the volume count but the most single day volume since 2019. Tuesday’s volume was also more than double the average volume. The pullback today is on par with normal volume levels, most likely profit taking by some of Mondays’ buyers and maybe a few underwater buyers from yesterday.
The price is above the shorter-term MA’s, and we have a recent MACD cross. All in all, I will be looking for a reversal from today’s down day for an entry. I like this set-up because I can put a stop loss under one or all of the moving averages with a clearly defined risk.
Thanks for looking. Ideas, not investing/ trading advice.
4/18 Watchlist + Notes SPY - I think today was like a 50% win 50% loss from our prediction yesterday. I wanted to head lower than Friday, which we did not get, and we closed green, but my prediction also said that I saw today being a pullback day or consolidation day, which it was. Tomorrow I am thinking we head higher and that is purely due to the fact that we had such a strong close. Textbook bullish candle. With today being an inside day, anything can happen, but we are definitely leaning bullish. If we break today's high then we target 415.13 and 417 if buying strength is there
Watchlist:
All inside setups on the scanner on my chart per usual
Challenge account watchlist: (Current account value is $50.00. No trades today on it)
AA - 3-1 Daily
ARKK - 3-1-1-2 Daily - 50% rule/Potential Compound 3 Bar
U - 2-1 Daily
Main Watch:
ARKK: Looking for a break of 39.08 to target 39.84. With this reversal pattern, it is important to note that today price passed the 50% retracement of yesterday's range after breaking the low. This is what starts the creation of compound engulfing candles. Reversals with this setup usually bank hard. If my bullish bias on SPY plays out well I can easily see this one being a solid play
Previous Main Watch:
TSLA - Played out solid for anyone who scalped at open
RBLX - dropped 12.5% premarket off of news. Completely invalidated. What a shame.
Watchlist Stats
1/1 on Spy Predictions
1/2 Main Watch Plays
Personal Stats:
1/1 on the week
Overall Green
- scalped puts today on SPY for a nice 30% win
ARKK - Sinking ship alertCathie sure did outdo herself Friday, she bought more COIN instead of dumping it. How does a fund manager NOT know what a Wells notice is?
The big issue with this ETF is that she seems to be consolidating into her top 10 holdings instead of diversifying. She's not even looking into new stocks, just buying more ROKU and COIN, lol.
News:
finance.yahoo.com
Trades:
cathiesark.com
Holdings:
file:///C:/Users/hiroki.hirata/Downloads/ARK_INNOVATION_ETF_ARKK_HOLDINGS%20(3).pdf
I have no position in ARKK (a few COIN puts though), I just think she's dumb AF, Stay away from this ETF. Posting only because I saw she bought COIN Friday, lol. COIN will be a drag on this ETF until they go bankrupt. NOBODY wins against the SEC.
Cathie's woodShort term we saw a rough shaft descent as the Fed's interest rates caused high PE innovative companies to plummet. However we are now in a consolidating phase (right testicle consolidation) and companies such as Tesla doubled in value YTD.
In other words, Cathie's Wood will be trending up long term due to high interest in tech innovation. We expect investors to realize that innovation will outperform traditional industries (ex: AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, GOOG, etc). The ARKK fund is composed mostly of mid-cap stocks so there is a lot of upside potential before they become large caps.
ARKK - Falling Trend [MIDTERM]- ARKK has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term.
- This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development.
- An inverse head and shoulders formation is under development.
- A decisive break of the resistance at 46, ideally with an increase in volume, signals a further rise.
- ARKK is between support at 37 and resistance at dollar 44.
- A definitive break through of one of these levels predicts the new direction.
- ARKK is overall assessed as technically slightly negative for the medium long term.
*EP: Enter Price, SL: Support, TP: Take Profit, CL: Cut Loss, TF: Time Frame, RST: Resistance, LT TP: Long Term Target Price
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
Is it worth waiting ?We tend to think rationally this way, if the price can/will goes down to 0.80 , why do I want to buy at $1 ? The million dollar question is IT MAY or IT MAY NOT. If you are so certain, then probably you would pawn everything you had and go ALL IN and make a big bet out of it.
The reasons you hold back is the question of "WHAT IF" I am wrong ? Call it fear, margin of safety or being cautious, I think it is the right thing to do especially in investment. You probably also take time to save up these money in order to invest so you want to play the game right !
So, will the price fall to the dotted line as I have shown on the chart or will it rebound from here ? If it does and continue to rally, then months later, you would kick yourself in the butt for missing a few cents opportunity cost !
However, it may fall through the support line as well as sellers continue to dominate this ETF, who can tell for sure ?
There are many products to choose from in the market , so spend your time , do your research and if you want to bet on it, start small and accumulate along the way. I speaks for myself since I am interested in many products (or call me greedy) so I would diversify quite widely, haha.
ARKK UpdateCathie's ARKK continues to sink, lol. I told everyone to stay away from this garbage.
Biggest holdings are ZM, EXAS, TSLA, ROKU and SQ. TSLA really tanked this garbage, it was the only thing propping it up until recently.
No position, I just think it's hilarious anyone actually buys this fund. How does she even have a job? WHy do people keep interviewing her like she knows anything?
Anyways, 5 year negative return now. We should see the market bump up a little next week, so maybe this goes even for 5 year return, lol. A blind monkey throwing poop can pick stocks better than Cathie.