Price seem well supported. Bias on upsideARKK ETF used to be best performing ETF in year 2020. However due to rate hike situation, most of the innovation companies invested in this ETF question by the capability to survive. Therefore we can see a huge drop thereafter.
However, the price have dropped more than 60% since it peak in Feb 2021 supported by 23.8% Fibo..
We are looking at two price level between $50 - $60 for its rebound. If price fail to support between these two level, we may see around $35+
ARKK
Rolling: ARKK April 14th 80C/103P to May 20th 77P/102.22C... for a .93 credit.
Comments: There isn't much extrinsic left in the deep in-the-money short put, so rolling it out to May to collect additional credit and reduce cost basis further. Total credits collected of 25.86 on what is now a 24.22 inverted with a break even of 76.36 relative to where the underlying is currently trading at 65.37.
I'll continue to scalp around this position to reduce cost basis further, but have been working it for several cycles already, so it's more about mitigating loss at this point than attempting to make money on the position (although you never know).
QQQ Tech - Neutral, No Strong Read YetThe social inefficiency of capitalism is going to clash at some point with the technological innovations capitalism engenders
and it is out of that contradiction that a more efficient way of organizing production and distribution and culture will emerge.
Every non-Marxist economic theory that treats human and non-human productive inputs as interchangeable
assumes that the dehumanisation of human labour is complete.
But if it could ever be completed, the result would be the end of capitalism as a system capable of creating and distributing value.
2 Years later, ARKK is in the same place. Today I will update my view on ARKK from the previous post I made.
I found it super interesting to see how one of the most renowned assets in the post-pandemic era has erased ALL its gains from the beginning of the bear market back in February 2020 until now.
From a logarithmic perspective, we can see that the current decline is the deepest one and almost doubled previous declines.
Now I would like to go into technical elements and the situation where we may have interesting trading opportunities.
I am still paying attention to the internal descending trendline. Trendlines are incredible tools to help you avoid getting into the market at the wrong moment. For example, here, the descending trendline can be interpreted as "Below the trendline, avoid bullish setups. Above the trendline, start thinking in bullish setups."
But that's not all; I don't want to see a breakout of the descending trendline only. I want to observe a clear correction with the proportions you can see on the circle. IF that happens, I will trade on a new local high towards the higher zone of the descending channel. If nothing of that happens, because the price keeps falling into the ugliest correction of all, I would stay on the sidelines until the technical elements confirm that we are in a good situation to develop setups.
Thanks for reading; feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.
#NASDAQ - CRASH - 12.000 INCOMING? Nasdaq broke the recent correction lows and closed right at session lows.
If we just saw the first wave of a correction, and after that, the relieve rallye to the 50retrace, we now might be poised for the second leg down.
Copy the first leg, measure it from the high of the relieve rallye and you end up retesting the old ATH at 12k, what clearly is a major inflection point in the Nasdaq chart.
That would probably be an insane buying oportunity, especially in some - at that time probably completly obliterated - high growth stocks.
---- If you wanna protect your portfolio, wait for Nasdaq to retest 13.700 from below and get rejected, that would be your lowest risk/reward short entry. Im not posting full short setups though, cause of reasons :D ----
STAY SAFE out there and good luck on your trading.
Nothing left to brag about..!In an interview with Bloomberg, the ARK Invest founder and CEO predicted that her flagship fund would generate 40% annual returns over the next five years, a big jump over her previous target of 15% to 20%.(Fortune)
Here I compare her 40% prediction with her previous prediction of 15% compound annual rate of return.
In the 40% scenario it will take 3 years to get back on the previous all time high, assuminng it start climbing up right now..!
In the 15% scenario it will take 7 years to get back on the previous all time high, assuminng it start climbing up right now..!
But we all know it is not finished yet..!
But
How long ARK investors will stay calm???
I do not think ARK invest could survive 2022..!
This is not the prediction of a random guy, this is the prediction of a man who see it is coming at least a year ago:
April 29th, 2021:
Title: Apocalypse of ARK invest
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Only impossible is impossible in the market..!A new trend in the market:
Stocks slip below their pre-pandemic prices easily in 2022..!
IF ARKK, Meta(FB), BABA, NFLX, SPOT, PYPL, SQ, ROKU, and many more companies are now trading below their pre-pandemic prices
It is very likely the same thing happen to tesla in the Future ..!
FB:
NFLX:
BABA:
ROKU:
PYPL:
Finally, based on Cathie Wood's research ARK investment will experience a 15% growth rate in the coming years, which means it will take
7.5 years to get back to the 169.7 all times high..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
don't kill the messengerWell. i know that not all the people agree in how Cathie Wood handle the ARK fund investments, sometimes me neither, but i hope that she takes profits when she sale something, the true is that we have a market full of opportunities and i think a group of intelligent people driving ARKK can see the same. We have two options for this fund, going to $20s or bounce at these level. technically there is symmetrical perfect gigantic bull flag that is like an aberration, and i never seen something so perfect, perfect parallel lines 25 degrees each, the flag has a hidden message and maybe it's a bull trap and will end converting in a wedge. at the end the rewards will come like with other market opportunities.
$ARKK ETF AnalysisThe Exchange Traded Fund ARKK is now trading above a key level in the market, which might give us a possible rejection at 61.18
below this key level is an attractive buying zone according to previous year price action after the COVID-19 crash
consider this as a long term investment especially while buying this dip but wait for a bottom confirmation pattern (double bottom, wicks rejection at demand level, triple bottom...)
SARK the most profitable ETF ???? SARK or The Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF offers investors access to a short vehicle that may otherwise be difficult to execute on their own.
The fund attempts to achieve the inverse (-1x) of the return of the ARK Innovation ETF for a single day, not for any other period.
So far, so good, from November till February the fund has a return of 68%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Opening: ARKK April 14th 50 Short Put... for a 1.47 credit.
Comments: Adding to my ARKK position on weakness. Total credits collected of 24.93 with a 78.07 break even relative to where it's currently trading at 66.92. (Ugh). This also wouldn't be bad as a standalone trade, with rank/implied at 78/72, paying 1.47 on buying power of 5.12 (28.7% ROC at max).
This is what I want to see on PYPLThe first thing to say is, "I'm faaaar away from developing a setup right now on PYPL; when things are melting, trying to find a bottom is a really unprofitable business (or at least for me). So that's why I use relevant supports/resistances or trendlines as main levels before thinking about developing new setups.
In this case, the first trading opportunity I would be interested in is IF the price can break the first trendline. IF that happens, I want to see a correction, and a setup on a new high may be a good opportunity to get exposure to a new bull run.
I would like to add to this explanation why I always wait for breakout + correction before trading. This is because most of the time, we don't observe levels being broken like if nothing were there, most of the time when the price reaches or breaks a key level we will tend to observe some kind of retracement (this is valid both for bearish and bullish directions).
Waiting for this is a good way of avoiding fakeouts because you are not entering on the first breakout. This means that your drawdowns will tend to be more controlled because you are able to avoid A LOT of low-quality situations by doing this. The negative side is that sometimes the price breaks the level like if nothing were there and you miss the setup (however, I have realized that this is the exception)
Going back to the PayPal explanation, I think patience will be my strategy here; I want to see a clear bottom which means observing several more candlesticks before saying "oh, this is reversing" and then paying attention to the descending trendlines, as the first place where I'm thinking on developing setups. At the moment, PYPL stays on my watchlist as "WAIT WAIT WAIT."
Thanks for reading! Please feel free to share your view and charts in the comments.
Dont Short ARK, Buy SARK..!I believe It would be better to Buy SARK instead of Shorting ARKK..!
Why?
Look at ARKK biggest bets:
TSLA:
COIN: ARKK average cost 284 USD/Share
HOOD: ARKK average cost 30 USD/Share
PLTR: ARKK average cost 24 USD/Share
RBLX: ARKK average cost 84 USD/Share
I don't know when they want to start their active management???
They just keep buying, the problem is they don't have any money and they just sell tesla and buy others..!
The difference between tesla and their other investments is, Teslaraties believe in Elon Musk and it is a religion for them..!
Looking at my post published on FEB 14th, 2022:
About Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF
The investment seeks to provide investment results that are approximately the inverse of, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the ARK Innovation ETF (the “ETF”). The fund is an actively managed exchange-traded fund that attempts to achieve the inverse (-1x) of the return of the ETF for a single day, not for any other period, by entering into a swap agreement on the ETF.
Entry: 42.5-45.5
Stop loss: close below 41
Reward/Risk: depends on entry and target
Target range: short term 53 midterm 63
Time Frame: 2-6 wks
Possible gain: 20-42%
Possible loss:10%
Position size: 5 % of trading capital
You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels.
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA , an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
Conclusions on the current context on MAToday, we will look at Master Card, a key name in the information & technology sector, with a market cap of 375B. As a comparative thing, VISA has a market cap of 484B
So, what are the main technical elements we can observe here?
1) The price has been inside a massive daily correction of 275 days, and a few weeks ago, we observed the breakout of it.
2) Now, we can observe a clear "throwback" (name to define the retest movement after a breakout on a bullish trend) that has been developing on the last 15 days
One of the fundamental aspects of the way we trade is understanding the current context and comparing it with historical data (that's why I love using the logarithmic chart)
As you can see, this is not the first time we have observed a correction of this size, and this has been a common behavior since 2007.
What's my conclusion on this?
Take all those corrections I have shown you in the Log chart, and check this concept "Drawing the corrections in the same way I'm doing it on the main chart of this post" after we have the breakout and the throwback, on average, trading on a new high its a great level to get exposure to a possible bullish movement. Of course, this is not working in all of them, but I can see an edge that I need to polish a little more before defining my final setup. (For this basic test I conducted, I placed stop losses below the throwback)
What if this keeps falling? Then you don't trade
What happens if you trade this and it's a stop loss? That's always a chance, to be precise, 50% of the time that happens to me, so make sure you control your risk (The general concept is 1% risk per setup) and only trade if your risk to reward ratio is equal to or higher than 1.8
Thanks for reading; I hope this was useful, and feel free to share your view and chart in the comments! Thanks.
This is my current plan on ROKUROKU is down 70% from the previous "ATH" and is below a clear descending trendline; I'm really interested in this kind of name to look for opportunities in case a new bull run comes. My main thesis to support the idea that a new bull run may come is on the logarithmic chart.
As you can see, these big drops have already happened in the past , and after that, we observed massive bullish movements. So my view is that there are similarities between them and that past behavior may repeat again.
Ok, nice that these mean that we should buy now? Of course not; that's why we use technical analysis to detect common patterns between all these past situations and try to find which would be the most efficient way of trading this "opportunity." My conclusion is that I want to observe breakout followed by a correction in the daily chart of 7 to 12 days and a clear 10% retracement.
IF that happens, then I will be interested in trading on a new local high in the same way you can see on the chart, with a target on the next major resistance level.
What happens if the price keeps falling? Then I will not trade, and I expect a move towards the next support. From there, I will look for the same setup I'm mentioning here.
Thanks for reading! Feel free to share your view and charts in the comments!
ARKK | Inside the descending channel Today we will look at the current situation on ARKK.
Technical Elements:
-The price has reached the lower zone of the cloned channel.
-Inside the descending channel, we can observe a descending trendline.
The main element I want to highlight here is that the price had reached a significant target for the bearish movement. Can the price keep falling? Of course, nobody knows with certainty what the price may do. However, we are in an excellent spot to start thinking about possible bullish situations.
What's the idea I'm developing? Wait for the breakout of the current descending trendline + a corrective pattern (red circle)
IF that happens, I think we have good bullish potential to trade on a new local high towards the higher trendline of the descending channel. At the moment, this is an idea that requires patience to see how the price evolves.
Thanks for reading!
Coincidences or No Coincidences that’s the question???This is just my observation ..!
And
I invite the 30 million users to think about it..!
Between January 12 and February 2, 2022, I noticed these 3 articles (linked to the chart) were chosen as editor’s pick..!
As you can see ARKK’s performance in all time frames is severely negative in the past year ..! (Right upper corner)
I checked all the editors picks in that 3 weeks timeframe (January 12-February 2nd), and find ARKK and BTC with 3 editors pick in that timeframe hold the 1st rank..!
All three editors picked articles present long ideas about ARKK, and now you can see ark is trading blow the prices of the days these articles were published and picked..!
Another interesting observation is: these coincidences happened around ARK invest summit on January 25th..!
I would like to finish my observation with a quote from Anthony Horowitz:
(Anthony Horowitz - Author of Alex Rider, Foyle's War, Sherlock Holmes, James Bond, TV and film writer, occasional journalist.)
“So it's a coincidence. Just like you said. Two rich parents with two rich kids at the same school. They're both killed in accidents. Why are you so interested?"
"Because I don't like coincidence," Blunt replied. "In fact, I don't believe in coincidence. Where some
people see coincidence, I see conspiracy. That's my job.”
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.