Let the Good Times Coal -- ARLP Bullish ContinuationAfter a 12 month, ~35% retracement, coal miner ARLP appears to be setting the stage for a continuation of the bullish trend that began in October 2020.
After ARLP found a corrective low on a partial channel retrace, a nested bullish channel emerged, breaking to the upside simultaneously with the bearish channel that contained it. Volume is expanding to confirm this theory as of now.
It's important to remember the unusually warm winter that put coal onto this corrective path. Odds are in favor of this not repeating, but time will tell how much assistance tickers in the energy space will get from Mother Nature.
Stop loss conservatively set for $18.45, but a 2/3 retrace rule would open up a little more headroom to the 18.18 level.
ARLP
ARLP Long Coal stock in a strong uptrend with consolidation on lower volume
Entry on ARLP at 21.31 1/4 size, look to scale in to 100 shares if price moves lower, will cut below 200 Day Moving Average, I'm using a 2x ATR on the daily which is around a 1.76 stop loss. 1st PT is 25.40 (Daily Pivot) then measure moved.
Alliance Resources are allied for more bears. ARLPNice 5 wave impulse done and dusted. We are going to correct on that now. Now in early phases of Wave A with plenty more time to collapse. What determines market action is not some announcement or some promise somewhere. It is purely determined by group psychology. This is a different entity to that of an individual's psychology. It follows rules that govern all of this world, and which too are fractal in nature. We are not aware of any other system that accounts for the fractal nature of markets other then the Elliott Wave theory and its update in the form of the Neo Wave Theory.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
ARLP - Flag formation long from $17.90 to $19.27 & higherARLP seems forming a possible bump & run formation. The best thing about it is the huge volume in the breakout candle that suggest the reversal of the trend. It is a bit speculative trade but seems a good long opportunity
* Trade Criteria *
Date First Found- May 6, 2018
Pattern/Why- Possible flag formation. Advanced Bump & run formation.
Entry Criteria- Current Level ($17.90)
Exit Criteria- 1st Target $19.27; 2nd target - Momentum
Stop Loss Criteria- $16.87
Indicator Notes- Twiggs money flow broken to the positive side.
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
ARLP- Bear flag formation Short from $18.50 to $17.14 & lower ARLP was an intraday text alert sent out yesterday. It has a bear flag formation & It had done really well so far. Hit the entry this morning & it seems very good short setup.
* Trade Criteria *
Date first found- June 21, 2017
Pattern/Why- Bear Flag formation
Entry Target Criteria- Break of $18.50
Exit Target Criteria- 1st Target $17.14, 2nd Target - momentum
Stop Loss Criteria- N/A
Please check back for Trade updates. (Note: Trade update is little delayed here.)
The idea of pair trading: Industrial Metals & Minerals.Ladies and gentlemen, I recommend you the idea of the pair trade:
1. it is long position in the company OCIR (OCI Resources LP) and short position in the company RIO (Rio Tinto plc).
2. it is long position in the company OCIR (OCI Resources LP) and short position in the company ARLP (Alliance Resource Partners LP).
Stocks of the company OCIR are stronger than RIO and ARLP since 2014. I think that next 2 months stocks of the company OCIR will be stronger than RIO ana ARLP.
Risk-management:
I reccomend to use a conservative approach. The trade capital divide equally between 2 pairs: OCIR-RIO and OCIR-ARLP.
The proportions of each company in pairs:
1. Stocks of the company RIO are more volatility than OCIR:
* 53% it is long OCIR.
* 47% it is short RIO.
2. Stocks of the company OCIR are more volatility than ARLP:
* 37% it is long OCIR.
* 63% it is short ARLP.
This allocation between stocks is necessary for the parity volatilities.