Artificial
BTCUSD :: Bull's Failed Longs Killing BTCBitcoin margin traders have been the primary cause of volatility, it would seem.
What I see here is that for the most part, bears have much less impact on the market than the bulls (I would have thought the reverse!). True, a big bear paw helped knock BTC off the high horse, but the next day bulls started a path of self-destruction. This battle played out for a bit, with the bears seeming more strategic and the late coming bulls having major FOMO. The early bulls falsely inflated the CCI which was easy to do the day after all those shorts opened.
The price continued to go downward as people took their profits before they weren't profits anymore and this caused a lot of bull nuts to be squeezed. Everyone decided to give it another shot and, you can see that as L&S activity stabilizes the market tries to return to normality...which has been a down trend but it's trying to normalize the 6-11K range.
The long bulls finally gave up in the last week of march, falsely *deflating* the market as they had done previously.
At this point every has had their ass torn from both directions and I'm lmfao at how all these smart people out smart themselves. I, having no financial eduction or even skills or responsibility, have also had my ass handed to me so .. This pot is also black.
Everyone had a good LOOONG as week to analyze the crap out of every micro & macro pattern possible and a lot that aren't.
As mentioned, the bears seemed more strategic and you can see that a large number of shorts were opened at the PERFECT time.. when the 100 MA is crossing the 200 .. AND the market is hitting nearly 200 on the CCI.
The rest of the week was mostly Joe Blow grabbing big handful of FOMO. He's the one who is going to cry elephant tears. :(
We're at a crazy pinnacle of resistances from literally every direction and that hammer is super crazy ready to pounce on a market full of bulls who have run out of steam driving their precious lambo straight into the ground.
Ironic eh?
EURUSD Artificial Triple Top?EURUSD went into a rally late December which continued in January as expected and hit resistance on January 25 UTC. Its strong momentum and the speed at which it was punching through each price level let one think that resistance at 1.25 would break.
The first hit on January the 25th UTC was actually already a triple top on it's own, if viewed on the 5m time scale. On the scale of days this first hit looks like not more than a touch and barely qualifies to form a triple top with the tops on February the 1st and 15th. Nevertheless, both signal well trained technical analysts to believe its preparing for reversal.
On February 15, 7am UTC I so happen to have my eyes on EURUSD and AUDUSD and could closely monitor the rally both went into. It was like someone had given them a kick with a hammer for a sprint to the top. Both rallies stopped and I noticed the system had enabled its price control process which in this case acted as if the market floated freely but a experienced traders often notice when it's been switch on and off.
Another event that leaves me with a whole bunch of questions, such as:
1) Was it a natural interruption of the drop of the USD or was it set up by the controlled mode of the market?
2) If it was set up, then by who and why?
3) Have more corrections taken place this week and are these such as marked in the chart?
4) Were there perhaps similar corrections back in December and November? Back then significant USDJPY drops were interrupted and price was restored?
5) Are there economies that suffer from corrections like these?
6) COT data reports nearly 70% net long on EUR, which has been going on for a while. Is it possible that the USD simply had no chance to recover due to its bearish sentiment as prepped by the charts?
US Equity Markets Artificial LiftSKEW/VIX Indicator - OIL Volatility OVX
SKEW/VIX Index compare, is a new indicator that I built here on TradingView (you can read details how it was constructed in the related link below). When combining SKEW with VIX, we can see significant market tops/bottoms and displacement/divergence. As you can see in the chart, S&P has been in a tight upward channel since October, 2011. SKEW/VIX and Oil also marked a significant low in October, 2011. SKEW/VIX remained in upward trend from the low, and set many more highs until June 30 2014. It was in June, where Oil started it's panic selling, and eventually breaking the support stronghold held since the October 2011 low. From June 30, 2014 SKEW/VIX peak until now, both oil volatility index OVX and S&P volatility index VIX have risen significantly. With SKEW/VIX trending down toward a lower sub 5 level, I would call our S&P run since June 30th, an artificial lift. Eventually we will see a major correction.
VIX has been quietly trending upward. On this chart notice the higher lows.
Oil Volatility OVX has also increased volatility in the S&P and follows VIX closely.