Get started

ARZ

Candlestick Analyzes - Part OneThe Weakest Candle A Spinning Top/Bottom (a candle with the same sized upper and lower shadow) is the weakest and the most important candle for us. Note that the body size of the candle is not important. We analyze it like this: 1. if it appears in the middle of a trend, we expect the trend to continue, as a medium-sized candle in the direction of the trend. otherwise, most likely we will get into range or reversal. 2. If it appears at a key level, until observing the next candle, we cannot analyze what could happen. If there is at least a medium-sized candle in whatever direction, we expect the price to continue in that direction, otherwise, it's a range! Let's look at the chart: - Candle #1 is in the middle of a trend, but after it, we see a bearish candle. So, it's a range or reversal. - After seeing candle #1, we draw the box for the MC candle. So, candle #2 is shaped at the support of it. We have to wait to see what will come after it. Because the next candle is a bearish one, we expect the bearish movement to continue, and it continues. - Candle #3 shaped after a strong breakout. If trends tend to continue, we expect at least a medium-sized candle in the direction of the trend. Otherwise, it'll be a range or reversal coming.
Education
by forexise
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 3Question: I'm having a problem with finding the MC candle. What should I do? Answer: There are 3 distinct signs for us to know for a fact that we are in a ranging market which has been started from shaping an MC candle: 1. Inability for the price to make a new stBoS (seeing wBoS or no BoS at all). 2. For the second time, seeing a cycle of Pump&Dump happening. 3. Price cross and close both EMAs in the opposite direction of the previous minor trend. Whenever we observe any of these three signs, it indicates that we are already in a ranging market. We should look to the left to identify our MC candle, which is usually the very first Pump & Dump that occurred recently. For Ethereum to continue its uptrend, the Pump & Dump cycle must end. The price should not drop again in the ranging area.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by forexise
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 2This is how we see the market. Only in three places can we see a minor trend. All in between is just price consolidation because it is a ranging market. And we expect it to happen after spotting candle "X"! For more information, please refer to Part One . When we spot a Master Candle (MC), We expect erratic behaviour from the price. Look at the white arrows to grasp what I mean by this. This is normal for us in ARZ Trading System analyses! In fact, in a ranging market, we are looking for the price to behave like this to combine it with BB and hunt the best reversal trading positions. If the price managed to stay above LTP & EMAs, we expect this pump and dump cycle to continue in the range area.
Education
by forexise
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part TwoIn this section, we will combine minor structure and momentum, along with MC and Bollinger Bands. We observed an uptrend, and then suddenly Candle "A" appeared. This indicates that the previous candle is a strong candidate for becoming an MC for us. Now, we need to analyze the market for signs that it may be transitioning into a ranging market. As we see: - Price movement from #1 to #2, is the same as #2 to #3. No momentum in a specific direction which is a clear sign of a ranging market. It confirmed MC for us. - The movement from #3 to #4 has just reversed the previous bearish candle. Nothing much. Again we are inside a ranging market. - Movement from #4 to #5 is equal to #5 to #6. Again it's ranging! Awesome! - Candle #7 is good for ranging, and we expect such sharp movements in a ranging market. But we do not expect a continuation of strong downward movement after it. If such a thing happens and could break both the low of candle #7 and the LTP level, we expect the price to continue a downtrend and create a stBoS downward in the future.
Education
by forexise
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part OneWhen analyzing momentum, the most important question to consider is: Where should I focus my analysis of momentum? Many traders often find themselves confused by the concept of "momentum" as they try to derive meaning from every single candlestick movement. The straightforward answer is: Analyze momentum when the price is at key levels or is getting close to them! In particular, for minor structures (trends), you should pay close attention to momentum near the 13 and 20 EMAs, as we do in ARZ Trading System. Keynotes: a minor trend is still valid, if these two key points are continuously happening: 1. We always expect a loss of momentum for price when approaching the key levels, and gaining momentum when it's moving away from them, in the direction of the trend. 2. A very important sign of gaining momentum is crossing and closing the whole previous candle(s). Let's analyze this chart: - It is obvious that candles #1 to #3 are showing a loss of momentum, but they are far from key levels and it just might mean a retracement, which happened. But again it might not retrace at all! - from #3 to #4, we see price is gaining momentum, which is not good! so both key levels could easily break, which happened. But again in #5 and #6, we see the price losing momentum in the opposite direction of the previous downtrend, and gaining it in the direction of the minor downtrend. so everything is good. - Again #7 confirms the momentum in the direction of minor downtrend. - In retracement up until #8, the price is gaining momentum upward, which is not good. But candles #9 through #10 again are in our favour. - the correction to #11 is not looking good for a downtrend, and in the next candles, to #13 we are not convinced that sellers are stronger. So, we are cautious here. And the price finally gains momentum upward and we reach #14. - From #15 to #16, momentum is the same for both buyers and sellers. It is a tight range and can do nothing until we see a clear sign of gaining momentum (or losing) in one direction. And the sign came in the shape of candle #17. If this tight range were to continue, it should have been a bullish strong candle.
OANDA:XAGUSDEducation
by forexise
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part 4 - minor structure_2To confirm a minor trend, we need to see a Strong Break of Structure (BoS) with the body of a candle, in the direction of the trend. This means in the ARZ Trading System, shadows do not count as breakouts for confirming a trend continuation. let's elaborate on the concept: - after receiving pullback from 13&20EMA in A, the previous low has been broken strongly and made a stBoS. This confirms we are in a minor downtrend. So, from now on we are looking to go short any chance we get. - in B & C we are looking for a reason to sell. but weak BoS after will make us cautious and at #1 we are analyzing and not trading until the direction of the minor trend gets clear. - the strong bullish candle after #1 tells us we are indeed in a ranging market! Not an uptrend. Please note that: the minor uptrend should be confirmed. - in D we see buyers are weak, and at #2 it confirms that a minor uptrend is not going to happen. Now wait for a confirmation of a minor downtrend. - stBoS after E confirms we are in a minor downtrend, so we look for opportunities to sell after F, G, H, & I. - at #3 we are officially in a range again. So, we trade as a ranging market, until J tells us we have to trade downward. - a wBoS after K warns us, and we see the price reversed upward. Weak continuation downward at #4 & #5 confirms it. - the stBoS upward after #5 tells us we are in an uptrend, but a weak pullback up until 6 tells us the uptrend might be done. - Then, there is a stBoS downward after L. So, until it breaks upward and has a strong BoS in that direction, the price could continue declining. Keynote: Short-term traders must always trade in the direction of the minor trend. Unless they are to trade in a ranging market or are medium or long-term traders. Question: do we have to just use periods 13 & 20 for analyzing short-term trends? Answer: Absolutely not! It's the trader's choice only.
Education
by forexise
2
Importance of 50%, in MCAs we analyzed before ( read here ), the price movement on Cardano has been completed. It is trending upward now. The main entry point for the ARZ Trading System is when we have a pullback from more than one S&R level on the border of drawn MC boxes (#1). Either MC, LTP or UTP. Here we see sometimes this alignment will happen on 50% of the boxes, which is acceptable when it is in the direction of the major and minor trend (#2 & #3). Watch 4H: - Strong Bullish: Target 1: $0.9414, Target 2: $0.9890 - Strong Bearish: Target: $0.8459 Keynote: until the minor trend is not violated , the next target points are based on the base MC box size.
Education
by forexise
BB, the correct way of usage - Part OneLike EMA, Bollinger Bands are famous indicators that can be used to analyze the market. We discussed the current usage of EMA in parts One , Two , and Three , and we will continue to do so. Now, let's talk about BB. In ARZ Trading System, we have a specific rule for this indicator, to find the best spot to enter the market. - BB settings: 20 period, 2 deviation. BB meaning: 1. When its bands are converging, we are close to a breakout. We have to consider MC boxes and EMAs to analyze what direction it might break out. 2. When diverging, we are in a breakout. If price movement continues and still we see the bands diverging, we are still in breakout mode. 3. When bands are flat, we are in a ranging market. In our system, the best place for entering into a reversal position is when at the same time, the price has touched MC ( what is MC? ) and BB levels, just as follows: - The MC candle is shown. we expect the market to retrace after reaching the UTP level. - After breaking the UTP level in candle #1, the price couldn't cross and close and retraced in #2 inside the UTP area. So, MC is still valid. - From #2 to #3 we have no reason to trade upward. - In #3 the price has touched both LTP level and BB. So, we look for a buy position. - in #4 we analyze the market as a seller. Because the price has touched both the support of MC and BB. - in #5 again we see a similar situation as #3, so we are buyers. - in #6, the price couldn't cross and close after the breakout candle, so MC is still valid.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by forexise
1
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Three - minor structureFor trend traders, analyzing the short and long-term trend direction is crucial. By usage of 20EMA & 13EMA, we can understand short-term trend direction and power. In future articles, we will look at Major Structure (long-term trend analyses). Keynotes: 1. When 20 is below 13 it means we are in an uptrend, and a Downtrend is when 20 is above 13. 2. EMAs should have a slope. If just one of them is flat, or both are sloped toward each other, or the price crosses and closes both of them, we are in the minor range. the possibility of a third one happening could be predicted by identifying an MC in the past (please refer to the MC article ). 4. We look at the distance between these two EMAs as a zone. So we don't expect the price to close exactly on any of them, to analyze for a probable pullback (Please refer to Part One and Two ). Watch 4H: - #1 Is where the price crosses and closes both. we are in a minor range. Then, the continuation of shaping green candles and then the cross of EMAs, means we are in a minor uptrend. - #2 a flat 13 shows a slight range, which then again turns into an uptrend. Although we have predicted it before by drawing MC boxes. - #3 shows 13 is toward 20. Then we are in a minor range. This is followed by price crossing and closing both in #4. Again it has been predicted by MC box to happen. - Candle #5 is normal. Because we are in a range and in here anything can happen. But when the price couldn't cross and close both in #6 and the continuation of the downtrend and pullbacks in #7 & #8, it shows we are in a minor downtrend now. So, we are not going to trade upward until it reverses.
Education
by forexise
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Two - PullbackOur core belief in ARZ Trading System: Trading, is to have an "expectation" from the market. If not, at any movement, the trader will be confused! If you look at the market and don't have any expectations, don't trade! In a future article, we will discuss what to do if an expectation is not met. In the case of Pullback, Price is not a ball, and EMA (or any other kind of S&R) is not a brick wall, especially in this case. If you put an EMA with any period, you'll see that the price crosses it easily most of the time! Then, it might come back as a shadow or a Fake Breakout. This means we should have a confirmation system for accepting or rejecting a Pullback. Otherwise, we'll always see a pullback shaping! Key Note 1: the higher the EMA period is, the longer will take for a pullback to shape! Key Note 2: Never trust and trade based on just one S&R level! Always have at least 2 or 3 levels to confirm your pullback. Either in a classical way by drawing trendlines and channels, or using any kind of Indicator as a means of dynamic S&R level. Key Note 3: a flat EMA is supposed to break easily! If not, it'll reject the price strongly. It means we have to wait for what will happen at a flat EMA to decide what to do next or expect the price will breach it (Please refer to article part one). Key Note 4: An ascending EMA can only act as a support, and a descending one acts as a resistance, not the other way! This is critical, believe me! Accepted ways of confirming a pullback in the ARZ System are: 1. Wait for a strong reversal pattern to shape at S&R. Never jump the gun! 2. Use a Volume Indicator like WAE (Waddah Attar Explosion) to confirm your entry at the S&R level. In this chart: - Pullback #1 (Bearish Engulfing) is not accepted, because it's just based on one S&R (13EMA) and the reversal pattern closed near the support of MC. - Pullback #2 (Bullish Engulfing) is strong but closed near 100EMA. Can't trust it. - Pullback #3 is awesome! This is a multi-candle Evening Star (Key Note 1&2), of 100EMA & Resistance of UTP & MC. - Pullback #4 is again good but has closed near the low of MC and is risky to take.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part OneIn ARZ Trading System, we use multiple EMAs to analyze the market, as follows: 1. 200EMA, 100EMA, & 50EMA: Analyze the big picture (Major Structure). What is happening in higher timeframes? Long Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? 2. 20EMA, & 13EMA: Analyze the trading timeframe (minor structure). When to enter a trade and how to manage it? Short Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? Points to consider: 1. If an EMA is flat, it's not a valid S&R and we expect the price to break it easily. If not, it'll act as a strong S&R and we expect a strong movement after Pullback on it. 2. Based on the period of Flat EMA, the fluctuation around it could be big and bigger. It means, a flat 20EMA has a smaller range of fluctuation and shorter duration of ranging market around it, in compare to 200EMA which generally is wider and longer. 3. If EMAs are close to each other, cannot act as S&R. Only when there is some distance between them we can see them as S&R that can encapsulate price between them for a period of time. Here we see a strong bullish entry after hitting Flat 200EMA and 50% LTP. If cross and closed above all EMAs, a Pump is in hand! To be continued...
Education
by forexise
10