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ARZ

Importance of 50%, in MCAs we analyzed before ( read here ), the price movement on Cardano has been completed. It is trending upward now. The main entry point for the ARZ Trading System is when we have a pullback from more than one S&R level on the border of drawn MC boxes (#1). Either MC, LTP or UTP. Here we see sometimes this alignment will happen on 50% of the boxes, which is acceptable when it is in the direction of the major and minor trend (#2 & #3). Watch 4H: - Strong Bullish: Target 1: $0.9414, Target 2: $0.9890 - Strong Bearish: Target: $0.8459 Keynote: until the minor trend is not violated , the next target points are based on the base MC box size.
Education
by forexise
BB, the correct way of usage - Part OneLike EMA, Bollinger Bands are famous indicators that can be used to analyze the market. We discussed the current usage of EMA in parts One , Two , and Three , and we will continue to do so. Now, let's talk about BB. In ARZ Trading System, we have a specific rule for this indicator, to find the best spot to enter the market. - BB settings: 20 period, 2 deviation. BB meaning: 1. When its bands are converging, we are close to a breakout. We have to consider MC boxes and EMAs to analyze what direction it might break out. 2. When diverging, we are in a breakout. If price movement continues and still we see the bands diverging, we are still in breakout mode. 3. When bands are flat, we are in a ranging market. In our system, the best place for entering into a reversal position is when at the same time, the price has touched MC ( what is MC? ) and BB levels, just as follows: - The MC candle is shown. we expect the market to retrace after reaching the UTP level. - After breaking the UTP level in candle #1, the price couldn't cross and close and retraced in #2 inside the UTP area. So, MC is still valid. - From #2 to #3 we have no reason to trade upward. - In #3 the price has touched both LTP level and BB. So, we look for a buy position. - in #4 we analyze the market as a seller. Because the price has touched both the support of MC and BB. - in #5 again we see a similar situation as #3, so we are buyers. - in #6, the price couldn't cross and close after the breakout candle, so MC is still valid.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by forexise
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Three - minor structureFor trend traders, analyzing the short and long-term trend direction is crucial. By usage of 20EMA & 13EMA, we can understand short-term trend direction and power. In future articles, we will look at Major Structure (long-term trend analyses). Keynotes: 1. When 20 is below 13 it means we are in an uptrend, and a Downtrend is when 20 is above 13. 2. EMAs should have a slope. If just one of them is flat, or both are sloped toward each other, or the price crosses and closes both of them, we are in the minor range. the possibility of a third one happening could be predicted by identifying an MC in the past (please refer to the MC article ). 4. We look at the distance between these two EMAs as a zone. So we don't expect the price to close exactly on any of them, to analyze for a probable pullback (Please refer to Part One and Two ). Watch 4H: - #1 Is where the price crosses and closes both. we are in a minor range. Then, the continuation of shaping green candles and then the cross of EMAs, means we are in a minor uptrend. - #2 a flat 13 shows a slight range, which then again turns into an uptrend. Although we have predicted it before by drawing MC boxes. - #3 shows 13 is toward 20. Then we are in a minor range. This is followed by price crossing and closing both in #4. Again it has been predicted by MC box to happen. - Candle #5 is normal. Because we are in a range and in here anything can happen. But when the price couldn't cross and close both in #6 and the continuation of the downtrend and pullbacks in #7 & #8, it shows we are in a minor downtrend now. So, we are not going to trade upward until it reverses.
Education
by forexise
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part Two - PullbackOur core belief in ARZ Trading System: Trading, is to have an "expectation" from the market. If not, at any movement, the trader will be confused! If you look at the market and don't have any expectations, don't trade! In a future article, we will discuss what to do if an expectation is not met. In the case of Pullback, Price is not a ball, and EMA (or any other kind of S&R) is not a brick wall, especially in this case. If you put an EMA with any period, you'll see that the price crosses it easily most of the time! Then, it might come back as a shadow or a Fake Breakout. This means we should have a confirmation system for accepting or rejecting a Pullback. Otherwise, we'll always see a pullback shaping! Key Note 1: the higher the EMA period is, the longer will take for a pullback to shape! Key Note 2: Never trust and trade based on just one S&R level! Always have at least 2 or 3 levels to confirm your pullback. Either in a classical way by drawing trendlines and channels, or using any kind of Indicator as a means of dynamic S&R level. Key Note 3: a flat EMA is supposed to break easily! If not, it'll reject the price strongly. It means we have to wait for what will happen at a flat EMA to decide what to do next or expect the price will breach it (Please refer to article part one). Key Note 4: An ascending EMA can only act as a support, and a descending one acts as a resistance, not the other way! This is critical, believe me! Accepted ways of confirming a pullback in the ARZ System are: 1. Wait for a strong reversal pattern to shape at S&R. Never jump the gun! 2. Use a Volume Indicator like WAE (Waddah Attar Explosion) to confirm your entry at the S&R level. In this chart: - Pullback #1 (Bearish Engulfing) is not accepted, because it's just based on one S&R (13EMA) and the reversal pattern closed near the support of MC. - Pullback #2 (Bullish Engulfing) is strong but closed near 100EMA. Can't trust it. - Pullback #3 is awesome! This is a multi-candle Evening Star (Key Note 1&2), of 100EMA & Resistance of UTP & MC. - Pullback #4 is again good but has closed near the low of MC and is risky to take.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part OneIn ARZ Trading System, we use multiple EMAs to analyze the market, as follows: 1. 200EMA, 100EMA, & 50EMA: Analyze the big picture (Major Structure). What is happening in higher timeframes? Long Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? 2. 20EMA, & 13EMA: Analyze the trading timeframe (minor structure). When to enter a trade and how to manage it? Short Term Bulls are stronger or Bears? Points to consider: 1. If an EMA is flat, it's not a valid S&R and we expect the price to break it easily. If not, it'll act as a strong S&R and we expect a strong movement after Pullback on it. 2. Based on the period of Flat EMA, the fluctuation around it could be big and bigger. It means, a flat 20EMA has a smaller range of fluctuation and shorter duration of ranging market around it, in compare to 200EMA which generally is wider and longer. 3. If EMAs are close to each other, cannot act as S&R. Only when there is some distance between them we can see them as S&R that can encapsulate price between them for a period of time. Here we see a strong bullish entry after hitting Flat 200EMA and 50% LTP. If cross and closed above all EMAs, a Pump is in hand! To be continued...
Education
by forexise
10
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! (X Empire)In the heart of ARZ Trading System, is a candle that we call it MC (Master Candle). Any time that we see a candle that matches following description, most likely we will have a ranging market, with specified range of oscillations: 1. Candle itself is in the direction of the trend 2. Body of the next candle is within high to low of this candle 3. In the next candle(s), price could retrace most of the MC candle The main ranging area is the high to low of the MC candle. The exact size of this area, from high to upper is UTP (here $0.00062), and from low to lower is LTP (here $0.00011). This means price could fluctuate between these levels. If market is going to continue the trend (here is uptrend), price should break the UTP level and continue strongly.
Education
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Target levels (X Empire)The ARZ method is based on Wyckoff. The base (range) is MC which you can see in the chart. After breaking of this range, if price moves in one direction and stayed in the momentum (Bullish or Bearish with acceptable retracements), we expect the movement to continue on. Here we see price has achieved 3 of the targets which are: $0.00031, $0.00045, and $0.00059 . If movement continues, next 3 targets are: $0.00073, $0.00087, and $0.00101 . After reaching each one of these targets, we expect a retracement, and it can be strong, then no worry should come with it. And again, whatever happens, I'm holding tight to $X!
Long
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