Will Asia Break Lower In August 2019?Extended price weakness appears to be pushing Asian currencies below historical price channels. A breakdown from this support channel could mean a complete breakdown in currency values going forward. This may be the beginning of much lower price exploration in an attempt to fund support.
Hold onto your heads and profits folks. The crap may begin to fly soon.
ASIA
Oversold Asia - 200ma & trend line supportA longer term trade play
will analyse it by end of this month & on smaller timeframes for potential entry.
A Glimpse of Hopes For AsiaBi-Weekly Review on Strait Times Index (March 2019 - April 2019)
- Singapore Stocks start the week higher on this monday (April 1) with advancing 19.18 points points, or 0.6 per cent
- Markets are bullish but the volatility is higher for the past 2 weeks
- Market Catalyst affect several area : Australia, Japan, South Korea, China and Hong Kong
- Most active stocks for today (April 2): Thomson Medical, Hi-P , and Sembcorp Marine
- There is a huge certain amount of uncertainty due to geopolitical and growth outlook
The Most Important Factors to be Considered
- There is not much on global macro for past two weeks
- Market Catalyst mostly caused by high level trade negotiations between U.S. and China
- Manufacturing growth rise unexpectedly for these week during this march-april after hit a bottom before march
- On the other hand factory activity in Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan continues to shrink, leading to bullish expectation on industrial index
- Most of emerging country still depends on China demand
- They also suffers from U.S.-China tariff war and Brexit uncertainty
- China should embrace financial risk in order to ameliorate asia supply chains
- Interest rates need to be more accomodative especially Indonesia and Thailand
- Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) expected to be continue to expand in this months
- Policymakers across Asia continue to look for a way together to stabilize growh (policy easing will be expected for several months ahead)
The Japanese Yen is above the 20 day ema J61!
The Japanese Yen is above the 20-day ema. the last time it was above it was on January 30.
The money flow is currently downwards so we should watch for further consolidation on the 20D ema.
Those are my levels, lower Purple (0.23 fib) is the old support. The new support is the 20 day-ema and upper purple line is the resistance.
The green levels go from green to greener
SHI - foreign LNG for AsiaSinopec crossing MACD and entering positive CCI just above $46 on weekly candles. $68 by years end?
Sembcorp Ind took support may form Double Botton After Weak earning stock fall sharply and made low around 2.60.To consider downtrend is over stock have to close and trade above Level of 2.72.
All major Exponential Moving Averages are still pointing downwards. Fresh Down ward momentum picks up when stocks close below 2.60 and open downward trajectory till 2.50
$cmt and its struggle to breakout.CMT has been accumulating for long time now and should breakout in coming week.
open a position only after it breaksout.
Do share your opinion about my analysis and hit a like if you agree with my thoughts.
S&P 200 bigger picture: Up to 6800 before going down to 4500ASX 200 started a new five Elliott wave structure after the completion of correction in Februrary 2009. It has since completed four waves on a monthly scale and is now running upwards in its fifth wave which is likely to terminate around 6800 and go down to around 4500.
Why do I think so?
If we zoom in in the period from February 2016 when the fifth wave started, you would see that ASX 200 has already completed four waves on this weekly timescale (green waves) and is now completing the fifth wave which started in February 2018. Also see a chart copied below.
If we further zoom in the period since February 2018 by going to the daily scale (see below - pink waves), you would notice that ASX 200 has completed two waves and is now running in the third wave. The five waves on the daily scale are likely to be completed by 6800.
Further, 6800 is the top of the bullish channel started in 2008. Also, it is the value of the previous top before the financial crisis which is expected to offer significant resistance.
What would be the correction target?
If the correction is 61.8% then it could take ASX 200 down to 4500, but of course, it also depends on the level from which ASX 200 starts correction. If the correction is up to 78.6%, then ASX 200 will drop to 4000.
When is the correction likely to start and end?
It is difficult to say but I expect the correction to start in Nov-Dec 2018 and to complete by Jan-Feb 2020.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel?
Yes, this entire wave started in 2009 and completing in Feb 2020 would just be the first cyclic wave. After its completion, ASX 200 is expected to start the third bullish cyclic wave which could run for many years and could take ASX 200 up to around 10,000.
Weekly chart
Daily chart
Note: It is not a financial advice. Please trade at your own risk.
China/Asia crashes through support - look out below.China/Asia break support and head lower as the debt contagion continues to spread in SE Asia. Watch how this debt/credit issue expands across SE Asia, South America and across the One Road project countries. My assumption is that China is using every resource possible to prevent this type of contagion event from happening now with it having "fingers in every country" and enacting a very bold and expansive initiative to expand trade and other infrastructure projects across the developing world.
My opinion is that this contagion is just beginning to take root and once the true damage is known, it could be complete chaos while these other foreign nations and China attempt to restore some order and function to these lofty plans.
There is an old saying in China that goes "How do you know a Chinaman is greedy? He will have one finger in every pot at the dinner table - but never eat". This saying it, literally, exactly what is happening in China at the moment. The greedy Chinaman has one finger in every pot to try to control (for himself) everything on the table, but with one finger in every pot (all the time), he can never really eat and enjoy the food. He is too busy trying to control everything and keep his fingers into everything.
Watch how this plays out and visit my web sites if you want to know more about what I do and how I can help you navigate these global markets. We are going to see many huge swings in the financial markets over the next 10~20 years. You better be ready for it or have a solid team of people backing up you.
The Chinese Breakdown appears to be acceleratingThe breakdown in my China/Asia custom index appears to be accelerating downward. I called this move over 4 months ago as I saw economic issues playing out in China that could be dangerous. With Malaysia's new PM, Mahathir, pushing to expose corruption and graft from locals and Chinese investment firms, I expect continue news to POUND China over the next 12+ months. I expect Mahathir to be ruthless in terms of who and what is exposed as well as the criminal process involved. Honestly, I believe Malaysia could actually HANG people because of this as an act of Treason against the Malaysian people.
Don't try to bottom pick this move. This could be the unraveling of the Chinese Ponzi scheme and you don't want to be anywhere near this when it fully implodes.
Wal-Mart $2 Bucks from Strong Support, Entry into India. . .Many believe India and China are the future of retail.
Wal-Mart seems to agree, and on 5/9 announced a $16 billion USD bid for a 77% stake in Flipkart, India's premier online retailer.
Wal-Mart paid up to beat out Amazon for this exposure to Asian retail. Will it be worth it?
Luxury retail is in great demand but everyday retail is struggling, especially in the United States. Wages remain stagnant, consumers are turning more and more to debt, and western countries don't offer much in the way of growth for retailers (indeed, several retailers have been driven to bankruptcy in recent years). Wal-Mart provides a place for the everyday consumer to buy everyday products, but margins can only continue to compress as: 1. the cost of goods rises with a consumer that can't handle increased costs passed onto them, and 2. WMT fights to reorganize to take market share in attractive online and Asian markets.
Wal-Mart needs to catch up to compete with Alibaba and Amazon in markets with growth potential, and seems to be taking the right steps to do so. In the short-term, that could be bad for share price - or is the "bad" already baked in, and are traders\investors ready to pay up for Wal-Mart stock?
Wal-Mart has to compete for its share of fruitful markets, even if it means margin compression.
Looking at the technicals, Wal-Mart has abruptly fallen to near strong support in and around $81 USD. WMT reports Q1 2018 earnings on 5\17, and it's conceivable the numbers can't come in much worse than the downside upset from Q4 2017's earnings call back in February. Is disappointing news baked in to the price already, with Wall Street already expecting a little pain as Wal-Mart transitions into the company it needs to be to take on Amazon and Alibaba in shifting online and global markets?
WMT paid up to jump in to growing East Indian (and Chinese) retail - it more or less had to, and "had to" isn't a good place to be when negotiating deals - but will an exploding Asian retail scene lead to explosive moves upward in the price of WMT shares? The move up may or may not be today or tomorrow, but presently, the company's decisionmaking seems to bode well for Wal-Mart's future.
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Thanks again!
See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/
** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
Asia entering the market again soon - could go both waysWe've seen a failed retest of the 10k support und bounced up to 11,2k. The next movement will come within the following hours, as asians are entering the market again and we might move above the 11,2k zone or get a dump and retest the now even weaker 10k support line.
I recommend staying calm and waiting out further movement, since this one could go both ways.
There's most likely not enough volume to get above the 12k for now, so another retest of the lower 10k support seems inevitable in the next few days, regardless of asias next move tonight.
As for now, we're still in a bearish trend and won't breake the 13k support at least until the end of january.
There are two possible scenarios right now.
1. If we get a pump from asia, we will probably go to 12k see another bounce down from there, which is where I'm putting my sell orders in that case. Since I don't see any way of us getting above the strong 13k support line, this trade might come in quite handy for us, because not getting above 13k would also mean bouncing down again to at least 12k (where we sold).
2. However, getting a dump from asia in the next few hours could lead to a serious retest of the 10k zone with the small possibility of peaking down deeper for a double bottom at around 9,2k. I do not recommend lowering your position if we are digging down tonight, as it is unclear if we actually get below 10k on the next retest. We should then hold what we got and increase our position by buying between 9,2k and 10k. That is because an extended move downwards(breaking even below 9,2k) is HIGHLY unlikely (at least for now).
Note: We do NOT want to move below 10k entirely before 26th/27th of january, because that might open us up to a lower low once the CME futures expire at that date. Such a scenario could get us below 8k and therefor into a state where we definitely do not want to be (unless we have some FIAT available obviously).
If you're inexperienced, your best move might be watching and learning from this huge correction and only trading in very small portions of your portfolio. Again, this is a very volatile setup for us and unexpected price movements could leave us with unnecessary losses.
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This is no financial advice and only for educational purposes.
HKDJPYTrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5, accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends suited for swing trading. This system is made of custom adaptive volume indicators and Oscillators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at dynamic S/R zones once the trend has ended. // Average yearly pips gained is 40k per pair on D1 charts alone. I have provided a similar limited version of the system on Trading view to help traders visualize the strategy.
HKDJPY
To open SHORT positions for HKDJPY , it is required:
In this situation our system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the downside but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid and we can see this pair climb to new highs. Market execution for entry, I will confirm signal once the conditions have been met.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed we will basket trade into the position on H1 and minimum 100 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing high. Target 200 pips
Profit expectations: 1-4 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal.
USDSGD D1 Opportunity Within RangeTrading method: RSADVANTAGE Stage 5 system setup 95% accurate system manually forward tested over 3 years designed to stay out of ranging markets and only target strong trends. This system is made of custom technical indicators that properly detect trends very early and provides exit signals at the possible dynamic S/R zones.
USDSGD
Technical Outlook
To open long positions for USDSGD, it is required:
In this situation we are now waiting for Awesome Osci to go into positive territory alongside of our other system indicators to confirm trade entry confirmation for movement to the upside and but if the market trend continues to range this signal will become invalid. Market execution for entry, confirmation will be required for entry. The market enviroment is still ranging but we will monitor the activity of our positive readings until signal is in the appropriate conditions.
Risk Description: Once signal is confirmed 180 pips will be up for grab with small risk SL at swing low. The 2 previous signal on this pair was 328 pips and another 242 pips of profit since JAN/2017 to current date. We have seen quite a bear run this pair and we are now looking to capture for the bulls to deliver a impulse wave to the upside going into Q1 2018.
Profit expectations: 20 day trade length expected before hitting profit target I will post exit strategy when signal receives a exit signal. We could possibly wait over 1-2months before an official signal if market decides to range on this exotic pair.
Current Dynamic S/R Levels:
Swing high: 1.3672
Swing Low: 1.3469
Dash rolling up the right stuff, must have in portfolio!Forget about Potcoin, Dash is for you pot heads out there!
But also for your regular joe, Dash is penetrating the market from most angles.
Fundamental
While I am writing this up something came along and I need to go, so will have to fill in my thoughts on Dash's fundamentals later. I'll post a comment later on.
Technical
Same as above.
Numbers
Buy - 470 USD
First Sell - 640 USD
Second Sell - 880 USD
Stop Loss - Below 400 Support