ASIA
ASIA EJ B&R ON MOMENTUMEJ is in a consolidation phase so we must watch our step, but thats usually when algorithmic patterns come out to play, so lets see if they will follow thru on this harmonic reaction, price also formed one of our reversal setups, followed by what could be a continuation with this break and retest
ASIA NJ 618 LIMIT ATRNJ and AJ seem to be the last pairs to want to join JPYs downfall, this could either mean we can expect a pullback on all JPY pairs or that its simply late to the party and still gathering volume for a bigger push up.. not sure, but decided to test this hypothesis by entering a limit buy order at the 618 which was just hit. SL used was our ATR formula for a minimum target of 1:2
ASIA: BAT HARMONIC - ATR SLMoney is trapped on either side of the range, we identify a pattern in which the probability of covering risk at 2R is likely and could be quick so it'll be tested out. The potential upside is also nice but regardless if price violates either zone, strategy should be to try to catch a retest for a trend move
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📅 02.13.2023
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ASIA UJ 618 LIMIT ATRLast call for UJ shorts going once, going twice...
Playbook Setup: 618 Sell Limit Active
Probability of Success: 50%
Last entry for Asia session and it lines up with our bias from prior playbook setups (although we try to treat each and every opportunity independent of other ones).
KEY POINTS
- Maximum risk exposure met(3R) for ASIA so we will set SL and TP orders and check back in during London.
- Be aware as a trader and risk manager that this is a game of probabilities and there is a very real probability that when we check back in during London, we may be down 3R if all trades go to shiiiiish... In this instance, the worst-case scenario is accepted (psychologically) so therefore we have entered the last position of the night and will be clocking out as soon as this idea is posted
Our job here is done, the rest is on the market. May the odds be ever in your favor
ASIA UJ BOBBI ON REJECTIONUSDJPY looks to be lining up one of our favorite playbook setups (BOBBI) by faking the break up before potentially swinging lower for a short term reversal. If the odds are in our favor we should at least bag us twice our risk, and maybe not much more, as the big picture suggest presence of a bullish trend
Probability of success 50%
lets talk about a broader turn around in technologytechnology has led the market down. semiconductors have led technology. this stock has exhibited particular rate of change and other bullish volume based oscillations. bil williams ma, vwma, ema, trama as well as displaced ma are also bullish along trend lines. this leads me to a swing vased strat for continuation following the concordant supports, resistances and resulting ghost feed. this goes for stock like NVDA, and the broader market too. i am selling as spx approached 4035-4037, and i am hedging on pullbacks in taiwan semiconductor by buying SOXS and scalping for a few pennies at a time. im long the broader market with TQQQ on breaks of resistance or support on daily higher lows.
The USDCNH/USDCNY move was extraordinaryAs the Chinese economy was slowing even before the lockdowns, the strict lockdowns put a lot more pressure on the CNH/CNY. This created a huge divergence in the policies of the Fed and PBoC, as one was hiking and the other was cutting. For quite some time the USD was going up against most currencies, except the CNY... until one day the market fully reversed and rallied much higher.
By looking back to the USDCNH price action over the last decade, we can see that the two times we got such huge rallies, the market initially pulled back, and then went higher. Now when we compare the duration of those rallies, their magnitude and how overbought the market got by using different metrics, they all look fairly similar as a whole. For example the first one from 2015 was longer and slightly larger than the current one, but the initial leg was brutal. The second one from 2018 was the largest and quickest, however the market wasn't that overbought and the move made more 'sense'. Therefore this move has the potential to be just like the previous two.
In the short term I could easily see USDCNH trade back to 6.53-6.58, but my long term target is above the 7.2 double top. The same way the double top around 7 broke and the market went to 7.2, I expect the market to go above the 7.2 double top. No idea where could it top, but it is possible that we get a prolonged bull for USDCNH.
NIkkei 225 10 year ProfileBOJ intervened for the first time since 1998, to prop up it's the YEN, with some speculation they likely sold a lot of their massive reserves of long end (10-30 year) US T Bills to buy back the Yen. This hypothesis appears supported by the lack of short end yield movement at 4-5a, EST at time of BOJ intervention announcement late last week. Of note in this chart are:
- Almost a decade long volume profile aligned with vPOC at 382 retrace.
- Structure of current price action seemingly mirroring the covid structure as represented by the fractal in light blue above.
$BABA longterm entry 👁🗨*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management
Entry: $90
Take profit: $180
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Better days for Coal India ahead!This stock is often overlooked
It is a part of Nifty-50, and major weightage in Nifty-Metal Index as well.
It seems it is time that we get our eyes on this counter again
The line drawn in the chart is a regression line for Coal India. It is downward sloping currently.
But notice that price has closed above the regression line on the weekly charts.
If we see the last 4 candles on weekly charts, we observe this:-
- All four are green candles
- Body-size of candles in increasing (getting larger and larger)
Bollinger band expansion bodes well for the stock in the near term.
Volume: If we see the past 2&1/2 -3 years volumes, they have been much higher as compared to the periods prior to 2018
Another way to convey this volume strength is that "long-term volume averages are at/around lifetime highs"
Recent Coal Shortages, elevated coal prices, prevailing inflationary trends are also tailwinds for the stock
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ABOVE VIEWS ARE PERSONAL. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS BEFORE INVESTING
I AM NOT A SEBI REGISTERED ADVISOR
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USDJPY IN A BULL ADVANCE - ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISHi Elliotticians, USDJPY is trading impulsively bullish on the hourly time frame. I am tracking a bigger, five-wave move, where price is currently unfolding a wave 3 of this move, and its five-wave sub-structure. Wave 3 can be in final stages, as latest recovery from 124.76 lvl. can already be labelled as sub-wave v of 3, with Fibonacci projection targets of 1.618,2.0 and 2.618 Fib. target, which is an extended target for a black wave 3. Ideally price will start to slow down around the 126.38/126.84 area, also area where the upper parallel channel line can react as resistance.
A sharp, impulsive reversal would suggest a completed wave 3, and a wave 4 correction to be underway. A break below the lower parallel channel line would suggest a deep wave 4 pullback to be unfolding, with support at the 124.76 lvl..
Trade well.
Buy Modern Dental HK$3.4 Target Over HK$ 7.5Good Day Fellow investors!
When looking for a company that is
1. Globally Diversified
2. Highly undervalued from a free cash flow perspective
3. Has decent growth potential (Over 10%)
choices are limited! However Modern Dental does meet all of these criteria..
1. Revenues are globally diversified with about 35% coming from Europe 25% USA and 40% Remainder of the world including a larger and larger share coming from mainland china.
2. Trading at about a P/E Ratio of 9. EV/EBITDA about 6. Free Cash Flow yield of about 15%.
3. Growth outlook is great. Chinese revenue grew at a rapid pace over the past couple of years but the outlook is even better.
I am loking at this from a long term perspective and believe we can easily trade at HK$ 7.5 over the next coouple of years (And likely even sooner)