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Macro Monday 44~China NBS PMI & Manufacturing Caixin PMIMacro Monday 44 The China NBS PMI and Manufacturing Caixin PMI (both released Tuesday 30th April 2024) China NBS General PMI – Surveys by 3,200 large corporations ▫️ Provided by the National Bureau of Labor Statistics ▫️ Based on a large sample size surveying 3,200 companies across China. ▫️ The NBS PMI has a stronger focus on larger state-owned firms. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surveys by 650 SME’s ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a smaller sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) N.B: The China Services Caixin PMI will be released Monday 6th May which when combined with the China Manufacturing Caixin PMI will form the all encompassing China Caixin Composite PMI. We will cover the China Services and Composite PMI next week on Monday 6th May 2024. Both the Manufacturing Caixin PMI and the China NBS General PMI are of companies that are mostly export-orientated & located along China’s Costal Regions. These are the manufacturing and export hubs of China, the likes of major coastal regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai which have strategic access to ports and shipping routes. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion in 2023. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from both the PMI charts we are about to review below. Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indices; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories. Reading both PMI’s: >50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. < 50 represents contraction A reading of 50 indicates no change. The Charts China NBS General PMI – Surveys from 3,200 large corporations (subject chart above) ▫️ After hitting an all time low of 28.9 in Feb 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s NBS General PMI has experienced significant fluctuations. ▫️ The NBS PMI made two subsequent significant lows in Apr and Dec 2022 at approx. 42.6. ▫️ By March 2023, the PMI reached an all-time high of 57.0, indicating strong expansion in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. ▫️ This fell to a low of 50.3 in Dec 2023, and since then we have risen to 52.7 in Mar 2023. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024. China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surverys from 650 SME’s ▫️ The China Manufacturing Caixin PMI for smaller SME’s has demonstrated a series of higher lows since February 2020 demonstrating a strong recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic. ▫️ Momentarily reaching all time highs of 54.9 Nov 2020, thereafter falling significantly to 46 in April 2022, since then the Manufacturing Caixin has pressed into expansionary territory of 51.1 (March 2024). ▫️ This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since February 2023, boosted by higher new orders from domestic and abroad, with foreign sales rising the most in a year while output climbed the most since last May. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024. Both PMI's are in expansionary territory which is positive news for China production and exports. SME's appear to have made a more gradual and measured recovery in the Caixin PMI versus the volatile nature of the large corporations in the NBS PMI. Regardless both are swinging higher towards 52 or 53 placing them in the expansionary mode. Potential Trade Set Up On a separate note, adding to China's expansionary potential from above economic data and the PMI charts, one of the worlds greatest traders Peter Brandt @PeterLBrandt recently posted a potential buy signal one of Chinas main indexes, the Heng Seng Index which looks to have formed a Head and Shoulders bottom with a recent break out (see most recent post under this one). The Heng Seng Index (HSI) serves as a great proxy for Asian markets, its the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong and includes 82 constituent companies, representing about 60% of the total capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The companies in the HSI are considered blue chips and thus the index operates a good basal gauge of market sentiment in China. Definitely a chart to add to your arsenal for Asian markets. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Lets get after this week 💪🏻 PUKA
ECONOMICS:CNNBSGPMI
by PukaCharts
ASI - Falling Wedge Pattern in CSEASI might bounce from 8500 level. Closely monitor this falling wedge pattern and fib levels in the chart. Disclaimer : The information and analysis provided in this publication are for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any securities. The author and TradingView are not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the content presented herein. Always consult a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
CSELK:ASILong
by rukshan2102
RANGE BROKEN - BEARISH - TOYOTA MOTOR CORP - 30MN - MY IDEASAfter a long period ranging between the two blue lines (support/resistance), we are observing a break out in the downside. The history of the market tells us that it has several times tried to revert with very strong volumes. ALL FAILED! Until we had the confirmation of the downside trend. What to look up next: Check the volumes and see if it helps the market to revert the trend otherwise there is a high probability for the market to keep decreasing even if the slope have flatten a bit.
TSE:7203Short
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Overextended Asian markets ripe for a bounceChinese markets has remained resilient in the face of a bloodbath in global markets with only a forgiving decline of less than 10%. It has now fell to a major support which is the level it gapped down to when it was in the centre of the outbreak. With that it can be observed that strong buying pressure came in as buyers aggressively defended when 2715 was hit and traders covered their shorts. Thus, there is possibility of a imminent bounce.
SLong
by Ian15
Long XRPUSD short term swing XRP has hit an almost 2 year low recently, as it’s crashed with the rest of the crypto’s in BTCs journey to the 9,000’s. It seems we’ve got a reprieve though, with indications of institutional reinforcement coming in to correct the price. I believe it likely with increasing interest in crypto for source liquidity (specifically XRP), many institutions may want large positions on xrp, and are taking it by forcing retail traders out of their early positions. This goes especially for anyone who invested in xrp after the impulse that it brought it towards the 30-50 cent ranges earlier this year. Something I find interesting: we’ve fallen back to retest the range before the impulse that lead to the XRP historic high despite interest in cryptocurrency being at all time highs with the bullish market earlier this year... On the technical side I’ve used this harmonic along with indication a from the RSI that buyer strength is growing from the smaller time frames up (2HR-D) along with bars showing institutional interest after the completion of the harmonic. While I have enough confirmation to enter this trade with confidence, I am acutely aware of the possibly price retests lower to source more liquidity before the big impulse. This recent drop should have given them enough to stop out some heavy retail selling positions entering the trend late.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDLong
by david_eke
1
China's/Asia's DO OR DIE support level is hereMy custom China/Asia index shows, very clearly, the support near 7200 is critical at this time. The continued weakness originating out of China and the efforts to contain the current rout as well as contain an economic crisis are clearly generating concern throughout the globe. China has it's fingers in many other global nations. A collapse in China would directly influence dozens of foreign nations in terms of expectations and long term infrastructure projects. The one thing that concerns me the most is the abilities of the Chinese consumer and middle-class to continue their lifestyles while the Chinese economy appears to be contracting. At some point, we have to consider that the Chinese consumer may capitulate with this economic crisis and begin to pull away from speculating/investing in ways that the Chinese have not experienced since 1994-95. A prolonged decline in consumer activity is NOT what China wants in an attempt to recover. Watch this 7200 level over the next few weeks as this is likely going to be a temporary floor before a breakdown begins.
INDEX:000002Short
by BradMatheny