Asianstocks
Hang Seng: Emerging Golden Cross on 1D. Buy opportunity.This is an update to our HSI position posted in November with regards to the bullish signal on a symmetrical pattern as seen below:
At the moment the 1D chart is on neutral price action (RSI = 51.993, MACD = 310.060, ADX = 31.212) which technically is a good buy signal. On top of that, a Golden Cross is about to take place on the 1D chart, which is an even stronger buy signal and if the price bounces off of it, it will make a perfect Channel Up.
The first Target of 29,000 has already been achieved. 29,500 and 30,200 are next based on the Symmetrical Resistance levels.
In September, 2019 we've made a similar analysis with targets based on Fibonacci retracements and is already near the first target:
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Nikkei: Potential pull back towards the 1D MA200.Nikkei has been on a strong 1D uptrend since the August rebound on the 20,115 1W Support and just recently 1D turned neutral (STOCHRSI = 53.869, ADX = 18.607, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) showing possible signs of exhaustion.
The 1D RSI is on a bearish channel, diverging from the price action and that could be a first sign of a short term trend change.
We have traced this behavior back on the last time NI225 had a Golden Cross bull run of a similar pattern and that was in late 2016 - early 2017. After the bull run took a pause on January 2017, the RSI also printed a bearish divergence and the index consolidated for roughly 2.5 months before pulling back towards the 1D MA200. That was the first important test of that uptrend and was successful as the price rebounded on the 1D MA200 which acted as a Support all the way until the January 2018 High.
We are expecting a similar behavior this time also and advice investors to wait for a pull back near the 1D MA200 before buying again and target the 24,450 1M Resistance.
We want to point out at this stage that Nikkei's horizontal levels have been working well enough on the long term and this is what helped us buy the pull backs on the Support Zones before, as you see on the chart below:
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Hang Seng: Symmetrical patterns show an extended uptrend to at lThe index has broken above the multi month descending channel that started on April's peak with a clear cross over the Lower High trend line (dashed line) on very healthy bullish 1D price action (RSI = 66.138, MACD = 47.598, Highs/Lows = 433.2348).
Since both 1W and 1M turned neutral (RSI = 54.126 and 51.251 respectively) we are looking at previous candle patterns for clues. So far we have spotted striking similarities with the October 2018 - January 2019 price action. Similar lows, High and rejection around 27,300 and then a continuous bullish sequence.
Based on that symmetry we have set the following targets: 29,000, 29,500 and 30,200, which should be used in accordance to each trader's risk approach. A Golden Cross on 1D (as it happened in March) will further validate this outlook.
In September we've made a similar analysis with targets based on Fibonacci retracements and is already near the first target:
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Hang Seng: Symmetrical Golden/ Death Cross. Long term Buy SignalHang Seng has been devastated by the recent negative geopolitical climate, reaching in August the 24,900 1W Support. The rebound that followed on 1D was rejected near the Lower High trend line (dashed) and 1D MA200 (orange line) thus keeping 1W bearish (RSI = 43.695, MACD = -309.550, Highs/Lows = -317.3100).
We have had a Death Cross formation on that bottom and interestingly enough it is symmetrical with the Golden Cross in March. Since we already tested the 1W Support there are more probabilities now to resume the uptrend and reach at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (currently at 28,200) like Hang Seng did on its 2019 top. Anything above that will be bullish towards at least 30,200 (2019 High).
If however by any chance the index dip again to the 1W Support (the 2018 bottom was at 24,500) then that would be an even stronger long term buy signal towards the 33,500 ATH.
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TAIEX: Structured long term buy opportunity on Taiwan stocks.The Taiwan stock market is trading on a very standard long term 1M Channel Up which is currently neutral close to its median (RSI = 50.364). We see a very reliable buy signal pattern. Each Golden Cross (MA50 over MA200) has a distance of roughly 950 days from the Death Cross (opposite). The Death Cross comes to signal the end (or approaching) of the cycle's bottom. Based on that sequence we have calculated that to be around the end of July/ August 2019. We will be going long on TAIEX then with TP = 11,100 (1W Resistance).
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