ASML Holding | ASML | Long at $680.00NASDAQ:ASML Holding, a developer and servicer of advanced semiconductor equipment systems for chipmakers, dipped backed into my overall, long-term selected simple moving average (SMA). From here, stocks typically bounce or drop, but given the AI boom is far from "over", I anticipate another bounce to eventually close the gap near $1,060. It may show some minor weakness to close the gap in the low $600s and get the bears excited. But, unless the economy further shows major weakness in the semiconductor space, NASDAQ:ASML is in my personal "buy zone" at $680.
Target #1 = $730.00
Target #2 = $915.00
Target #3 = $1,060.00
ASML
ASML KEY S/R ZONE ON THE WEEKLY! MOAT COMPANY! 55% UPSIDE! NASDAQ:ASML just did a Wykoff under it's key Support/ Resistance zone over the last 5 years on the weekly chart! If we hold here and start to bounce upward on the chart, MACD, Stochastic, and RSI we could be in for a major upward move back to All time highs! I don't believe the sell off has been way over done for such a solid MOAT company!
ASML (ASML): Massive Sell-Off - What's next after the $50B loss?We are sure you’ve heard about ASML’s massive drop yesterday, erasing $50 billion in market value within hours following a technical error and the earnings report published a day earlier. ASML, Europe's most valuable tech company and a critical supplier to chipmakers, is now facing doubts—not about its long-term prospects but regarding short-term sales and whether it can continue to outperform the market in the long term.
As always, we’re not focused on intraday trades but are looking for bigger, high-risk-to-reward swing trade setups. To assess this, we’re turning to the Weekly chart to analyze ASML’s most important levels. Our most likely scenario at this point is that the All-Time High represents a wave B, after exactly respecting the 138% Fibonacci extension level. Coupled with the bearish divergence on the RSI, this pullback was expected.
While it's difficult to predict the exact point of reversal, we see $600 as a major psychological support level that could hold in the short term. To reverse the current downtrend, ASML must break above the resistance zone of $850–$895. However, as this is a potential wave ((ii)), even reaching the All-Time High is not out of the question. Merely reclaiming this resistance zone might not be enough to signal a trend change.
We’re keeping an eye on all major support zones, but the largest position we plan to open would be between $250 and $140. While this is still far off, and there will likely be opportunities along the way, this zone would provide the most textbook setup according to Elliott Wave Theory. The recent dip has also opened up more potential plays for the future.
Stay tuned as we monitor the situation for further developments! 🔥
ASML Holding Falls! Short Trade Hits TP1, More Targets AheadASML Holding has shown a strong bearish movement, reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 742.16.
Key Levels
Entry: 792.37 – A short position was initiated at this level, guided by the precision of the Risological Swing Trader.
Stop-Loss (SL): 832.99 – Positioned above recent resistance to protect against a potential reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 742.16 – Already achieved, confirming the effectiveness of the short setup.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 660.92 – The next target in line as downward momentum continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 579.68 – A further target if the bearish trend persists.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 529.48 – The ultimate target, indicating a significant decline.
Trend Analysis
The price is moving firmly below the Risological Dotted trendline, indicating a strong downtrend. The sustained bearish pressure suggests the potential for further declines towards TP2 and beyond.
With TP1 already hit, ASML Holding continues to show promise for further downside, guided by the Risological Swing Trader. The short trade remains positioned to capture additional opportunities as the trend continues to favor the bears.
Bearish Reversal in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The NASDAQ:SMH ETF shows a significant price decline, with a recent drop of 5.40%, as highlighted by the red bar. This price action suggests a bearish reversal after hitting a high of 283.07. The current support level is around 200.49, marking an 18.88% drop from the recent high. Additionally, the Darvas Box indicates a range between 247.16 and 283.07, suggesting potential consolidation in this area before the next directional move. The downward trend aligns with overall market corrections in the semiconductor sector, which could present a short opportunity if price breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors influencing this sector, as well as earnings reports that might impact semiconductor stocks. NASDAQ:ASML
ASML Perhaps the most structured buy in the market!ASML Holding (ASML) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 Low. The recent September 10 2024 Low has been at the bottom of the pattern, technically forming its new Higher Low.
Yesterday it broke and closed above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 3 months, which has been a solid bullish break-out signal on both previous Bullish Legs. Those then went on huge rallies that rose by +87.94% and +91.92% respectively.
As a result, with the 1W MACD about to form the final buy confirmation with a Bullish Cross, we set a 1380 long-term Target on a minimum +87.94% rise from the bottom, that will form an ideal Higher High on the Channel Up.
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ASML Elliot ABC Correction Wave I think ASML will decline with the Elliot correction wave after today's financials.
I think this correction could be up to $680-820 levels.
There is a gap around $ 780, at least I think this gap will be filled.
Every upward reaction in ASML above around $900 is an opportunity for a short position. As long as ASML remains below $1050, I plan to increase my short position on any upward price reaction above $900.
ASML: Poised for Record Orders Fueled by AI Chip DemandASML (ASML:EUR), the world's leading supplier of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, is expected to report a significant increase in new orders during its upcoming second-quarter earnings briefing. This surge is primarily driven by the booming demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, prompting chipmakers to ramp up production capabilities. A strong performance in Q2 could propel ASML's stock price further.
Key Drivers
Exponential Growth in AI Applications: The rapid proliferation of AI applications across various industries is creating an unprecedented demand for high-performance chips.
ASML's Lithography Leadership: ASML holds a dominant market position in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, a critical technology for manufacturing the most advanced chips. This technological edge makes ASML an indispensable partner for leading chip manufacturers like TSMC, a supplier to tech giants such as Nvidia and Apple.
Analyst Expectations: Industry analysts anticipate ASML's Q2 order value to reach €5 billion, surpassing consensus estimates. This growth is primarily attributed to strong demand from TSMC for ASML's EUV product line.
Potential Catalysts
Confirmation of Robust Orders: The upcoming Q2 earnings report will be a key indicator of the strength of the order surge, particularly from major players like TSMC.
Positive Forward Guidance: Clear and optimistic guidance from ASML's new CEO regarding future demand trends and potential growth prospects could further boost investor confidence.
Risks to Consider
Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, and associated export controls, could potentially impact ASML's sales to certain regions.
Demand Fluctuations and Lead Times: The long lead times (12-18 months) for ASML's equipment introduce challenges in dynamically adjusting production capacity to meet unforeseen demand fluctuations.
Investment Conclusion
ASML is strategically positioned to capitalize on the long-term growth trajectory of the AI chip market. The upcoming earnings report will be a critical data point in assessing the strength of the current demand surge and ASML's ability to navigate potential headwinds. Investors should closely monitor order numbers, management guidance, and any commentary regarding the impact of geopolitical factors.
ASML Holding may receive a significant new orderDutch company ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML), which manufactures equipment for the serial production of semiconductors, recently announced that it expects new orders from its major customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC).
A report from Jefferies Investment Bank cites comments from ASML CFO Roger Dassen. During a call with investors, he suggested that ASML equipment orders from TSMC could be received in the coming quarters.
By 2025, ASML expects annual sales to grow to 30-40 billion USD, and demand is expected to remain stable until 2026 due to the construction of new semiconductor factories in various countries.
To explore potential trading opportunities, let's analyse the stock chart of ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) from a technical analysis perspective:
On the Daily (D1) timeframe, resistance has formed at 1042.50 USD, with support at 943.65 USD. Stocks have been trading in an upward trend since early May 2024. If this trend reverses, a potential downside target could be 850.00 USD.
If the current uptrend maintains its momentum, the short-term target, upon a break above the resistance level, could be set at 1110.00 USD. For a medium-term investment, the stock price could rise to 1170.00 USD.
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ASML: Catalyzing the Next Wave of Semiconductor InnovationASML Holding NV, the world's leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer, has recently seen its shares rise significantly following optimistic comments from CFO Roger Dassen regarding upcoming orders from its key customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). The company’s lithography tools, particularly its cutting-edge extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines, are essential for producing the intricate circuitry found in advanced computer chips. This article explores the latest developments at ASML and their implications for the semiconductor industry.
Share Surge on Positive Outlook
On a recent investor call hosted by Jefferies, ASML CFO Roger Dassen expressed optimism about securing significant orders from TSMC, particularly for ASML's high numerical aperture (high-NA) EUV machines. These comments led to a 6.3% rise in ASML's share price, reaching €927.10 ($1,008.78).
Strategic Importance of High-NA EUV Machines
The high-NA EUV machines represent a substantial leap in lithography technology, capable of etching semiconductor lines just 8 nanometers thick, significantly smaller than the previous generation. These machines, which cost around €350 million ($380 million) each and weigh as much as two Airbus A320s, are pivotal for manufacturing chips that power artificial intelligence applications and advanced consumer electronics.
TSMC, the world's largest maker of advanced chips, is set to receive one of these high-NA EUV machines this year. This follows Intel's acquisition of the first such machine, which was delivered to its Oregon facility in late December. The strategic importance of these machines cannot be overstated, as they are crucial for maintaining technological leadership in semiconductor manufacturing.
Market Dynamics and Demand Forecast
ASML has projected robust sales targets for 2025, aiming for a revenue range of €30-40 billion, driven by the growing demand for advanced logic chips used in smartphones and AI applications. The company expects continued strong demand through 2026, bolstered by government-subsidized factories being built globally under initiatives like the U.S. CHIPS Act.
Jefferies analysts forecast that ASML's average orders will amount to approximately €5.7 billion per quarter for the remainder of this year, potentially pushing 2025 sales to the upper end of the company’s guidance. The demand for ASML’s high-NA EUV machines, despite their hefty price tag, underscores the semiconductor industry's reliance on this cutting-edge technology to maintain competitive advantage.
Competitive Landscape and Technological Edge
ASML's dominance in the EUV lithography market remains unchallenged. The complexity of EUV technology and the extensive ecosystem required for its development means that competitors like Chinese lithography company SMEE or Huawei are unlikely to pose a threat in the foreseeable future. This technological edge ensures that ASML remains at the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing innovation.
Conclusion
ASML’s latest advancements in EUV technology and the strategic partnerships with industry giants like TSMC and Intel highlight the company’s pivotal role in shaping the future of semiconductor manufacturing. The positive market reaction to CFO Roger Dassen’s comments reflects investor confidence in ASML’s ability to meet and exceed its ambitious sales targets. As the demand for advanced semiconductor chips continues to surge, ASML's technological innovations will be critical in driving the next wave of growth in the semiconductor industry.
ASML is at the forefront of innovation in chipmaking, with its cutting-edge EUV technology and collaborations with industry leaders like TSMC and Intel. Investors are clearly bullish, as shown by the positive market response to comments from CFO Roger Dassen. ASML's advancements are essential for building the next generation of super-powerful chips, perfectly positioned to capitalize on the skyrocketing demand for these components.
75: Analyzing ASML Sales Decline Potential Bearish MomentumIn light of the recent downturn in ASML sales, it's prudent to assess potential implications for the stock's trajectory. ASML faces lower than expected orders in Q1 amid industry downturn. CEO Peter Wennink remains optimistic about sector recovery in 2024. Orders dip to €3.6 billion, revenue at €5.3 billion. Our initial target lies at 826.1, where we anticipate a consolidation phase. However, if selling pressure persists, we could foresee a drop to 688.6. Monitoring validation of short positions is crucial. Conversely, stabilization around 826.1 could signify a potential reversal and pave the way for renewed upward momentum. Keeping a close eye on market dynamics and key support levels will be paramount in navigating ASML's current trajectory.
ASML supported on the 1D MA50. Bullish unless it breaks.ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and after it broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) more recently on November 01 2023, it went on a more aggressive (dotted) Channel Up.
The 1D MA50 is the key to its price action as not only did it hold on the previous Higher Low (January 17 2024) but also two days ago, which is technically the latest Higher Low. Technically, as long as it holds, the trend remains bullish and we will be targeting the top of the blue Channel Up at 1200.
If the stock however closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50, we will take the loss and open a sell instead, targeting 900.00 (-15.57% decline as the March 12 2023 Low).
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SMCI IS it overextended or hunting for thin air LONGSMCI is intimate with NVDA and the couple are doing quite well. I got some more at $750 and
2 days ago. Predictive Modeling is suggesting a $1000 price by Tuesday afternoon. That would
be a 33% return in less than a week. The chart shows the bull flag after the reversal out of
the down trend where I bought upon the mass index signaling. The AI indicator suggests
a slowly rising parallel channel with the upper boundary in the $1000 range. It suggests
an interval nano-dip in the premarket on Monday for a buy at the opening bell. I am good with
that. I have high confidence here due to the overall trend strength of AI. Software also
NOW, DDOG,CRM SNOW .......
SMCI - consolidated - ? Continuation or ? Reversal SMCI has been on an impressive trend up since the first day of the trading year. On the 15
minute chart It had a healthy 12% pull back about February 22-29 but then rallied again on
a reversal upside to nearly the ATH of $ 1075 set on Friday 2/16. I note that traders like
to trade SMCI on Fridays and likely are chasing same day expiration call options. I know this
because I have been one of them. SMCI is now in a high tight bull flag pattern. Typically
this is bullish for another leg up of equal magnitude after consolidation. I will suppose
the probability of a breakout higher is 75% and breakdown 25%. I may play this with
a set of stop orders. A buy stop at $ 1030 and a sell stop at $ 1005 with a share proportion
set equally. When SMCA breaks from the consolidation one of the two orders will trigger
while the other will be in play until cancelled or triggered. My bullish bias is that the buy stop
will trigger and I will miss only a small piece of the price action in the initial continuation.
I will assess for a call option trade upon continuation. The volatility indicator helps me pick
entries with an alert set for volatility beyond the running mean either bullish or bearish.
HCP runs to earnings on March 4th LONGHCP is a computer infrastructure company. The December earnings were a 160% beat. Given the
quicky evolving AI supertrend, the earnings might be expected to be another big beat. However,
that could be baked into the price. However, the explosive volatility of the last trading session
say otherwise. I will take a long trade here and chase this stock. I see it as pulling out of a
pullback and continuing on higher time frames.
ASML: Riding the Wave of AI Innovation in Chip TechnologyASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) emerges as a standout player with a unique position in the AI value chain. The company's recent announcement of next-generation high-NA EUV machines signifies a significant leap forward in chip technology, solidifying its position as a key enabler for semiconductor manufacturers. This article delves into NASDAQ:ASML 's pivotal role in the AI revolution, its technological monopoly, financial performance, and the intriguing dynamics shaping its future.
NASDAQ:ASML 's Cornerstone Role in AI Innovation:
At the heart of AI advancements lies the intricate world of microchip manufacturing, and ASML stands as the linchpin connecting various facets of this industry. The company specializes in lithography machines, particularly the groundbreaking extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines that etch microscopic patterns on microchips. These machines are integral to producing high-performing, energy-efficient chips as small as 3 nanometers – a critical requirement for AI applications.
Unraveling the Technological Monopoly:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) prowess lies not only in its cutting-edge technology but also in its unrivaled position as the sole producer of EUV lithography machines globally. This technological monopoly sets ASML apart in today's fiercely competitive landscape, with no real contenders in sight. The recent unveiling of the next-generation high-NA EUV machines reinforces ASML's commitment to innovation, creating a substantial barrier for potential competitors.
Financial Landscape and Market Dynamics:
Despite the immense promise of ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) technology, the stock's valuation reflects the challenges associated with its business model. The company's Q4 results showcased robust revenues of 7.2 billion euros, underlining the demand for its products. However, the high cost of its EUV machines contributes to fluctuating sales figures, making quarterly results susceptible to variations in machine sales.
Investor Patience and Future Growth:
ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) investors face a unique scenario where the company anticipates a plateau in sales for 2024, contradicting the expected trajectory associated with the booming AI industry. Management attributes this to a "transition" year, with 2025 projected to bring robust growth. The strategic foresight of ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ), coupled with the inevitability of continuous AI innovation, positions the company for sustained success, albeit with a need for investor patience during the transitional phase.
Technical Outlook and Investment Considerations:
From a technical standpoint, ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) Holding has broken the rising trend in the medium to long term, indicating a potentially stronger upward momentum.
Conclusion:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) role as a pivotal player in the AI value chain, coupled with its technological monopoly and ongoing innovation, paints a compelling picture for investors. While the stock may be trading at a premium, the company's strategic positioning and the undeniable demand for advanced chip technology in the AI era make ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) a compelling long-term investment.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ASML:
nor entered the dip before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 770usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-26,
for a premium of approximately $15.85.
And looking at the chart this would be probably the final leg of the Double Top.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ASML Surges on Record Orders and EarningsNASDAQ:ASML , the chipmaking equipment giant, witnessed a soaring 10% surge in its stock value following the announcement of its fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported record orders, outstripping analysts' expectations, and achieved a net profit of 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) with sales reaching 7.2 billion euros ($7.8 billion). While this stellar performance delighted investors, a cloud of uncertainty looms as NASDAQ:ASML cautions about potential impacts on future sales to China due to new export restrictions.
Record-Breaking Performance:
NASDAQ:ASML 's stellar financial results for the fourth quarter showcased the company's robust performance in the face of a challenging economic landscape. Net profit increased by an impressive 9% from the previous year, reaching 2 billion euros, while sales hit 7.2 billion euros, surpassing analyst estimates. The star of the show was the record-breaking net bookings, soaring to an unprecedented 9.2 billion euros, primarily driven by robust demand for NASDAQ:ASML 's cutting-edge equipment.
Dividend Increase:
Despite the uncertainty in global markets, NASDAQ:ASML expressed confidence by announcing a dividend for the year of 6.10 euros ($6.65) per ordinary share, signifying a 5.2% increase over the previous year. Shareholders will also receive an interim dividend of 1.45 euros ($1.58) per share in February, underscoring the company's commitment to delivering value to its investors.
China Export Concerns:
While basking in the glory of its impressive financial performance, NASDAQ:ASML did not shy away from addressing potential challenges ahead. The company warned that future sales to China could face headwinds due to new export restrictions. NASDAQ:ASML anticipates a 10-15% decline in deliveries to China in 2024, signaling a potential impact on its revenue from this critical market. The specifics of the export restrictions remain unclear, but they highlight the growing complexities in the global trade landscape.
Investor Response:
In response to the mixed signals from NASDAQ:ASML 's earnings report, the stock price soared to $860.04, reflecting a 10.6% increase as of midday on the announcement day. The market's positive reaction indicates investor confidence in NASDAQ:ASML 's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on the strong demand for its advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Conclusion:
NASDAQ:ASML 's remarkable performance in the fourth quarter, marked by record orders and earnings that exceeded expectations, showcases its resilience and dominance in the chipmaking equipment industry. However, the cautionary note about potential challenges in the Chinese market adds an element of uncertainty to the otherwise positive narrative. Investors will closely monitor how NASDAQ:ASML navigates these hurdles and sustains its growth trajectory in an ever-evolving global economic landscape.