ASML: Riding the Wave of AI Innovation in Chip TechnologyASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) emerges as a standout player with a unique position in the AI value chain. The company's recent announcement of next-generation high-NA EUV machines signifies a significant leap forward in chip technology, solidifying its position as a key enabler for semiconductor manufacturers. This article delves into NASDAQ:ASML 's pivotal role in the AI revolution, its technological monopoly, financial performance, and the intriguing dynamics shaping its future.
NASDAQ:ASML 's Cornerstone Role in AI Innovation:
At the heart of AI advancements lies the intricate world of microchip manufacturing, and ASML stands as the linchpin connecting various facets of this industry. The company specializes in lithography machines, particularly the groundbreaking extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines that etch microscopic patterns on microchips. These machines are integral to producing high-performing, energy-efficient chips as small as 3 nanometers – a critical requirement for AI applications.
Unraveling the Technological Monopoly:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) prowess lies not only in its cutting-edge technology but also in its unrivaled position as the sole producer of EUV lithography machines globally. This technological monopoly sets ASML apart in today's fiercely competitive landscape, with no real contenders in sight. The recent unveiling of the next-generation high-NA EUV machines reinforces ASML's commitment to innovation, creating a substantial barrier for potential competitors.
Financial Landscape and Market Dynamics:
Despite the immense promise of ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) technology, the stock's valuation reflects the challenges associated with its business model. The company's Q4 results showcased robust revenues of 7.2 billion euros, underlining the demand for its products. However, the high cost of its EUV machines contributes to fluctuating sales figures, making quarterly results susceptible to variations in machine sales.
Investor Patience and Future Growth:
ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) investors face a unique scenario where the company anticipates a plateau in sales for 2024, contradicting the expected trajectory associated with the booming AI industry. Management attributes this to a "transition" year, with 2025 projected to bring robust growth. The strategic foresight of ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ), coupled with the inevitability of continuous AI innovation, positions the company for sustained success, albeit with a need for investor patience during the transitional phase.
Technical Outlook and Investment Considerations:
From a technical standpoint, ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) Holding has broken the rising trend in the medium to long term, indicating a potentially stronger upward momentum.
Conclusion:
ASML's (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) role as a pivotal player in the AI value chain, coupled with its technological monopoly and ongoing innovation, paints a compelling picture for investors. While the stock may be trading at a premium, the company's strategic positioning and the undeniable demand for advanced chip technology in the AI era make ASML (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:ASML ) a compelling long-term investment.
ASML
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the regional top on ASML:
nor entered the dip before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 770usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-1-26,
for a premium of approximately $15.85.
And looking at the chart this would be probably the final leg of the Double Top.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ASML Surges on Record Orders and EarningsNASDAQ:ASML , the chipmaking equipment giant, witnessed a soaring 10% surge in its stock value following the announcement of its fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported record orders, outstripping analysts' expectations, and achieved a net profit of 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) with sales reaching 7.2 billion euros ($7.8 billion). While this stellar performance delighted investors, a cloud of uncertainty looms as NASDAQ:ASML cautions about potential impacts on future sales to China due to new export restrictions.
Record-Breaking Performance:
NASDAQ:ASML 's stellar financial results for the fourth quarter showcased the company's robust performance in the face of a challenging economic landscape. Net profit increased by an impressive 9% from the previous year, reaching 2 billion euros, while sales hit 7.2 billion euros, surpassing analyst estimates. The star of the show was the record-breaking net bookings, soaring to an unprecedented 9.2 billion euros, primarily driven by robust demand for NASDAQ:ASML 's cutting-edge equipment.
Dividend Increase:
Despite the uncertainty in global markets, NASDAQ:ASML expressed confidence by announcing a dividend for the year of 6.10 euros ($6.65) per ordinary share, signifying a 5.2% increase over the previous year. Shareholders will also receive an interim dividend of 1.45 euros ($1.58) per share in February, underscoring the company's commitment to delivering value to its investors.
China Export Concerns:
While basking in the glory of its impressive financial performance, NASDAQ:ASML did not shy away from addressing potential challenges ahead. The company warned that future sales to China could face headwinds due to new export restrictions. NASDAQ:ASML anticipates a 10-15% decline in deliveries to China in 2024, signaling a potential impact on its revenue from this critical market. The specifics of the export restrictions remain unclear, but they highlight the growing complexities in the global trade landscape.
Investor Response:
In response to the mixed signals from NASDAQ:ASML 's earnings report, the stock price soared to $860.04, reflecting a 10.6% increase as of midday on the announcement day. The market's positive reaction indicates investor confidence in NASDAQ:ASML 's ability to navigate challenges and capitalize on the strong demand for its advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Conclusion:
NASDAQ:ASML 's remarkable performance in the fourth quarter, marked by record orders and earnings that exceeded expectations, showcases its resilience and dominance in the chipmaking equipment industry. However, the cautionary note about potential challenges in the Chinese market adds an element of uncertainty to the otherwise positive narrative. Investors will closely monitor how NASDAQ:ASML navigates these hurdles and sustains its growth trajectory in an ever-evolving global economic landscape.
ASML approaching significant supportASML Holding (ASML) approaching a significant zone of support, able to absorb monthly selling pressures.
Currently, there are two dynamics at play for (ASML).
If (ASML) drops into the zone of support, the stock can rotate higher and elicit gains of 20% over the following 3 - 5 months.
Also, there is nearby resistance that if settled above, would also elicit gains of approximately 20% over the following 2 - 3 months.
Inversely, if (ASML) settles on a weekly basis below shown support, this would put (ASML) into a sell signal where losses of 15 - 20% would be expected over the following 3 - 5 months.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold the top here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-10-20,
for a premium of approximately $16.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 760usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $20.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ASML - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Forming inverse head and shoulders pattern.
🔹Breaking resistance at 793 indicates further rise.
🔹POSITIVE signal from Rectangle formation breakout resistance at 668; Next resistance at 762.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for medium-term long-term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
ASML - Volatile Rising wedgeon the daily timeframe, the price is approaching the support line of the rising wedge, which, if broken, could indicate a potential drop. Also, note that there's a gap just below the 0.5 of the Fibonacci, which is begging to be filled. A drop to the order block ($550) could result in a bounce. A previously occurring golden cross followed by support found twice on the MA 200 are noteworthy moments: will the price bounce off for a third time? A sustained drop could lead to bullish divergence in the RSI and additional bearish momentum in the MACD if it drops below the midline.
Conclusion:
Based on the weekly and daily charts, signals such as the mostly bearish rising wedge pattern, potential export restrictions to China, potential bearish divergence in the RSI, and the MACD that may cross bearish, suggest that ASML could be facing a potential drop. However, the previous golden cross and the two-time support found on the MA200 also provide hope for potential upward movement.
Keep calm, do your own research! Trade safely and manage your risk.
(Disclaimer: This is not financial advice)
ASML in a volatile rising wedgeLooking at the weekly chart of ASML since January 2021, the price reached an all-time high in November 2021, followed by a downtrend. A bottom formed around €400, with a low point of €372. Regarding the pattern, a W-formation seems more appropriate than a Head and Shoulders pattern, given the left shoulder dips rather deep. The upward trend within a somewhat volatile rising wedge will eventually be put to the test, especially with the looming news about potential export restrictions to China. Should the price rise in a short period of time, and particularly in a straight line upward, possible bearish divergence is something to watch out for. This is especially the case if the RSI surpasses 72.42 and the price stays below €746.8. However, the MACD also suggests an impending bearish cross.
Conclusion:
Based on the weekly and daily charts, signals such as the mostly bearish rising wedge pattern, potential export restrictions to China, potential bearish divergence in the RSI, and the MACD that may cross bearish, suggest that ASML could be facing a potential drop. However, the previous golden cross and the two-time support found on the MA200 also provide hope for potential upward movement.
Keep calm, do your own research! Trade safely and manage your risk.
(Disclaimer: This is not financial advice)
ASML Entry, Volume, Target, StopEntry: with price above 747.14
Volume: with volume greater than 1.41M
Target: 789 area
Stop: Depending on your risk tolerance; 733.20 gets you 3/1 Reward to Risk Ratio.
This swing trade idea is not trade advice and is strictly based on my ideas and technical analysis. No due diligence or fundamental analysis was performed while evaluating this trade idea. Do not take this trade based on my idea, do not follow anyone blindly, do your own analysis and due diligence. I am not a professional trader.
ASML makes the technology that makes semiconductorsASML is shown here on the one-hour chart as having a great quarter with consecutive favorable
earnings It has moved above the blue volume trading range on the profile. The accumulation
distribution indicator shows persistent and high accumulation. The volume heat map shows
recent heat volume spikes. Since ASML has products essential to chip- manufacturing and is the
leader in its field it is very well positioned for the AI boom that is underway according to all
the chatter. ASML is one of the IBD Top 50 tech stocks. If the chart is zoomed out, there is a
rising wedge which might be a bit of bearish bias. Overall, I see this as a long setup worth
buying.
ASML: Dominating the industry 💾ASML Holding N.V. is a holding company based in the Netherlands. The Company operates through its subsidiaries in the Netherlands, the United States, Italy, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Belgium, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Malaysia and Israel. The Company operates through one business segment which is engage in development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems, consisting of lithography, metrology and inspection systems. The Company offers TWINSCAN systems, equipped with lithography system with a mercury lamp as light source (i-line), Krypton Fluoride (KrF) and Argon Fluoride (ArF) light sources for processing wafers for manufacturing environments for which imaging at a small resolution is required. TWINSCAN systems also include immersion lithography systems (TWINSCAN immersion systems).
ASML's lithography systems use a process called photolithography to create intricate patterns on silicon wafers, which are then used to create integrated circuits, memory chips, and other semiconductor components. These patterns are created using a process of etching, deposition, and other techniques that require precise alignment and control.
ASML's customers are primarily semiconductor manufacturers such as Intel, Samsung, TSMC, and GlobalFoundries. These companies use ASML's lithography systems to create the most advanced microchips on the market. ASML's customers are some of the largest and most influential players in the semiconductor industry, and they rely on ASML to provide them with cutting-edge technology that enables them to stay ahead of the competition.
ASML's business model is based on a high degree of innovation and research and development. They invest heavily in R&D to continually improve their technology and maintain their market leadership. Additionally, they operate on a capital-intensive model, where the cost of producing their lithography systems is high but the revenue potential is also significant.
Overall, ASML's business model is centered around developing and selling advanced lithography systems to the world's leading semiconductor manufacturers, which requires a high degree of technological innovation, R&D investment, and capital-intensive production processes.
There are other companies that offer lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, such as Canon, Carl Zeiss, and Ultratech, but they do not directly compete with ASML in the advanced lithography segment of the market. These companies generally offer less advanced lithography systems that are used for less complex microchip manufacturing applications.
ASML's main customers are some of the largest semiconductor manufacturers in the world. These companies use ASML's lithography systems to manufacture advanced semiconductor chips for a wide range of applications, including smartphones, computers, servers, and other electronic devices.
Some of ASML's key customers include:
- TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
- Samsung Electronics
- Intel Corporation
- SK Hynix
- Micron Technology
- GlobalFoundries
- UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation)
- STMicroelectronics
- Toshiba Memory Corporation
- Nanya Technology
With the underlying business performing so well over the years, its no surprise to see the stock has followed suit. Since 1996, ASML has returned +23.38% CAGR compared to +9.02% for SPY
At this rate of return HKEX:10 ,000 invested in ASML back in 1996 would have grown to over HKEX:3 million!
The strong market position and outlook for the business make me believe that the company will not be slowing down any time soon, and even at a valuation of 36x earnings I think this is a business trading at a fair value.
I have added this to my portfolio which you can check out here ⬇️
www.etoro.com
A company with NO competitor I take the recent correction of slightly more than 10% dip from the top is another opportunity to get this stock to break its high!
If nothing forbids its movements, we can see it breaking the resistance level at 880 and make its shareholders happier with a nice Christmas gift !
The CHIP War has begun........Read some of these articles to have a background knowledge
here .
here ,
here
here
On a simpler note, we are aware that the global economy is becoming more digitalised, though not moving at same velocity and growth. The chips are the "heart' of what goes into many things that are used in our daily lives , whether we are aware of them or not - from smart phones, data centres, military equipment, computers, etc.
What are the global players like TSMC and ASML charts telling us ? So, the SMH ETF is not doing too bad either if you are not good at picking up individual stocks.
The black dotted line shows all 3 have broke out from their bearish trend and are moving up higher weeks after weeks.
Please DYODD and all the best to your investment!
ASML Holding in a daily flag.ASML Holding - 30d expiry - We look to Buy a break of 591 (stop at 559)
Daily signals are bullish.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
Short term momentum is bullish.
This stock has seen good sales growth.
A break of the recent high at 588 should result in a further move higher.
The bias is to break to the upside.
The previous swing high is located at 581.
Our profit targets will be 669 and 689
Resistance: 588 / 600 / 620
Support: 552 / 540 / 520
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group.
Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
ASML upside to come - It's a long shot Large falling Wedge on the daily for ASML.
This is a long shot, but this analysis is based off the American indices starting to turn up and break up into a bull market.
We can only be sure when the price breaches the resistance of the wedge...
Target $705.77
Your thoughts?
Selling AMSL at 50% pullback.ASML Holding - 30D expiry - We look to Sell at 484.65 (stop at 501.10)
Trade idea is provided by a third FCA regulated party.
Daily pivot is at 496.30.
The primary trend remains bearish.
The 1 day moving average should provide resistance at 480.00.
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies.
We look for a temporary move higher.
Levels close to the 50% pullback level of 491.50 found sellers.
Break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum.
Our profit targets will be 445.55 and 437.51
Resistance: 472.00 / 485.00 / 500.00
Support: 455.00 / 445.00 / 430.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses
ASML BARR Bump & Run Reversal1D Chart: Normal candle.
On the day we look at the course of the Bump & Run compared to the previous TA. ( )
This is because we are on the verge of claiming or being rejected as the price is now on the “Lead-In line”.
This Friday will probably play a role in that, if the bulls really claim this, the RUN can be used.
What is also interesting on the day chart? Is that when the EMA crosses 26 on the EMA 50 a Mini Golden Cross occurs which is the beginning of bullish momentum. Of course, the EMA 50 on the 200 is the intersection that is an extra confirmation on that.
4H chart: Normal candle
On the 4 hour chart we zoom in on the Broadening Descending Wedge which has more or less put us on the Lead-In line of the bigger picture. The price is still above the old neckline of the previous M pattern and I would like to see the bulls claim this zone (as indicated on the day) to be able to move further up. What worries me a bit is the gap that is a lot lower and is also beyond the Golden Pocket. Also keep an eye on that scenario because in the MACD indicator we see that a downward crossing has been made, this can be temporary but I would like to add.
I also share the 4H chart: in Heikin ashi which I often find gives a calmer picture.
ASML BARR + Broadening descending wedge1D Chart: Normal candle.
On the day we look at the course of the Bump & Run compared to the previous TA. ( )
This is because we are on the verge of claiming or being rejected as the price is now on the “Lead-In line”.
This Friday will probably play a role in that, if the bulls really claim this, the RUN can be used.
What is also interesting on the day chart? Is that when the EMA crosses 26 on the EMA 50 a Mini Golden Cross occurs which is the beginning of bullish momentum. Of course, the EMA 50 on the 200 is the intersection that is an extra confirmation on that.
4H chart: Normal candle
On the 4 hour chart we zoom in on the Broadening Descending Wedge which has more or less put us on the Lead-In line of the bigger picture. The price is still above the old neckline of the previous M pattern and I would like to see the bulls claim this zone (as indicated on the day) to be able to move further up. What worries me a bit is the gap that is a lot lower and is also beyond the Golden Pocket. Also keep an eye on that scenario because in the MACD indicator we see that a downward crossing has been made, this can be temporary but I would like to add.
I also share the 4H chart: in Heikin ashi which I often find gives a calmer picture.